An experimental analysis of information acquisition in prediction markets

We study which factors in terms of trading environment and trader characteristics determine individual information acquisition in experimental asset markets. Traders with larger endowments, existing inconclusive information, lower risk aversion, and less experience in financial markets tend to acquire more information. Overall, we find that traders overacquire information, so that informed traders on average obtain negative profits net of information costs. Information acquisition and the associated losses do not diminish over time. This overacquisition phenomenon is inconsistent with predictions of rational expectations equilibrium, and we argue it resembles the overdissipation results from the contest literature. We find that more acquired information in the market leads to smaller differences between fundamental asset values and prices. Thus, the overacquisition phenomenon is a novel explanation for the high forecasting accuracy of prediction markets.

Fate of applied biosolids nitrogen in a cut and remove forage system on an alluvial clay loam soil

The fate of nitrogen (N) applied in biosolids was investigated in a forage production system on an alluvial clay loam soil in south-eastern Queensland, Australia. Biosolids were applied in October 2002 at rates of 6, 12, 36, and 54dryt/ha for aerobically digested biosolids (AE) and 8, 16, 48, and 72dryt/ha for anaerobically digested biosolids (AN). Rates were based on multiples of the Nitrogen Limited Biosolids Application rate (0.5, 1, 3, and 4.5NLBAR) for each type of biosolid. The experiment included an unfertilised control and a fertilised control that received multiple applications of synthetic fertiliser. Forage sorghum was planted 1 week after biosolids application and harvested 4 times between December 2002 and May 2003. Dry matter production was significantly greater from the biosolids-treated plots (21-27t/ha) than from the unfertilised (16t/ha) and fertilised (18t/ha) controls. The harvested plant material removed an extra 148-488kg N from the biosolids-treated plots. Partial N budgets were calculated for the 1NLBAR and 4.5NLBAR treatments for each biosolids type at the end of the crop season. Crop removal only accounted for 25-33% of the applied N in the 1NLBAR treatments and as low as 8-15% with 4.5NLBAR. Residual biosolids N was predominantly in the form of organic N (38-51% of applied biosolids N), although there was also a significant proportion (10-23%) as NO3-N, predominantly in the top 0.90m of the soil profile. From 12 to 29% of applied N was unaccounted for, and presumed to be lost as gaseous nitrogen and/or ammonia, as a consequence of volatilisation or denitrification, respectively. In-season mineralisation of organic N in biosolids was 43-59% of the applied organic N, which was much greater than the 15% (AN)-25% (AE) expected, based on current NLBAR calculation methods. Excessive biosolids application produced little additional biomass but led to high soil mineral N concentrations that were vulnerable to multiple loss pathways. Queensland Guidelines need to account for higher rates of mineralisation and losses via denitrification and volatilisation and should therefore encourage lower application rates to achieve optimal plant growth and minimise the potential for detrimental impacts on the environment.

Effect of feeding sorghum ergot (Claviceps africana) to sows during mid-lactation on plasma prolactin and litter performance

Diets containing 3% sorghum ergot (16 mg alkaloids/kg, including 14 mg dihydroergosine/kg) were fed to 12 sows from 14 days post-farrowing until weaning 14 days later, and their performance was compared with that of 10 control sows. Ergot-fed sows displayed a smaller weight loss during lactation of 24 kg/head vs. 29 kg/head in control sows (p > 0.05) despite feed consumption being less (61 kg/head total feed intake vs. 73 kg/head by control sows; p < 0.05). Ergot-fed sows had poorer weight gain of litters over the 14-day period (16.6 kg/litter vs. 28.3 kg/litter for controls; p < 0.05) despite an increase in consumption of creep feed by the piglets from the ergot-fed sows (1.9 kg/litter compared with 1.1 kg/litter by the control; p > 0.05). Sow plasma prolactin was reduced with ergot feeding after 7 days to 4.8 μg/l compared with 15.1 μg/l in the control sows (p < 0.01) and then at weaning was 4.9 μg/l compared with 8.0 μg/l (p < 0.01) in the control sows. Two sows fed ergot ceased lactation early, and the above sow feed intakes, body weight losses with litter weight gains and creep consumption indirectly indicate an ergot effect on milk production.

Gene expression in the skin of Bos taurus and Bos indicus cattle infested with the cattle tick, Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus

The cattle tick Rhipicephalus microplus (formerly Boophilus microplus) is responsible for severe production losses to the cattle industry worldwide. It has long been known that different breeds of cattle can resist tick infestation to varying degrees; however, the mechanisms by which resistant cattle prevent heavy infestation are largely unknown. The aim of this study was to determine whether gene expression varied significantly between skin sampling sites (neck, chest and tail region), and whether changes in gene expression could be detected in samples taken at tick attachment sites (tick attached to skin sample) compared with samples taken from non-attachment sites (no tick attachment). We present here the results of an experiment examining the expression of a panel of forty-four genes in skin sections taken from Bos indicus (Brahman) cattle of known high resistance, and Bos taurus (Holstein-Friesian) cattle of known low resistance to the cattle tick. The forty-four genes chosen for this study included genes known to be involved in several immune processes, some structural genes, and some genes previously suggested to be of importance in tick resistance by other researchers. The expression of fifteen gene transcripts increased significantly in Holstein-Friesian skin samples at tick attachment sites. The higher expression of many genes involved in innate inflammatory processes in the Holstein-Friesian animals at tick attachment sites suggests this breed is exhibiting a non-directed pathological response to infestation. Of the forty-four genes analysed, no transcripts were detected in higher abundance at tick attachment sites in the Brahman cattle compared with similar samples from the Holstein-Friesian group, nor difference between attachment site and non-attachment site samples within the Brahman group. The results presented here suggest that the means by which these two cattle breeds respond to tick infestation differ and warrant further investigation.

Comparison of nitrogen fertilization methods and rates for subsurface drip irrigated corn in the semi-arid Great Plains

In semi-arid areas such as western Nebraska, interest in subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) for corn is increasing due to restricted irrigation allocations. However, crop response quantification to nitrogen (N) applications with SDI and the environmental benefits of multiple in-season (IS) SDI N applications instead of a single early-season (ES) surface application are lacking. The study was conducted in 2004, 2005, and 2006 at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln West Central Research and Extension Center in North Platte, Nebraska, comparing two N application methods (IS and ES) and three N rates (128, 186, and 278 kg N ha(-1)) using a randomized complete block design with four replications. No grain yield or biomass response was observed in 2004. In 2005 and 2006, corn grain yield and biomass production increased with increasing N rates, and the IS treatment increased grain yield, total N uptake, and gross return after N application costs (GRN) compared to the ES treatment. Chlorophyll meter readings taken at the R3 corn growth stage in 2006 showed that less N was supplied to the plant with ES compared to the IS treatment. At the end of the study, soil NO3-N masses in the 0.9 to 1.8 m depth were greater under the IS treatment compared to the ES treatment. Results suggested that greater losses of NO3-N below the root zone under the ES treatment may have had a negative effect on corn production. Under SDI systems, fertigating a recommended N rate at various corn growth stages can increase yields, GRN, and reduce NO3-N leaching in soils compared to concentrated early-season applications.

Perceptions on the causes of individual and fraudulent co-offending: Views of forensic accountants

Individual and/or co-offenders fraudulent activities can have a devastating effect on a company’s reputation and credibility. Enron, Xerox, WorldCom, HIH Insurance and One.Tel are examples where stakeholders incurred substantial financial losses as a result of fraud and led to a loss of confidence in corporate dealings by the public in general. There are numerous theoretical approaches that attempt to explain how and why fraudulent acts occur, drawing on the fields of sociology, organisational, management and economic literature, but there is limited empirical evidence published in accounting literature. This qualitative inductive study analyses perceptions and experiences of forensic accountants to gain insights into individual fraud and co-offending in order to determine whether the conceptual framework developed from literature accurately depicts the causes of fraud committed by individuals and groups in the twenty-first century. Findings from the study both support and extend the conceptual framework, demonstrating that strain and anomie can result in fraud, that deviant sub-groups recruit and coerce members by providing relief from strain, and that inadequate corporate governance mechanisms both contribute to fraud occurring, and provide the opportunity for fraudulent activities to be executed and often remain undetected. Additional factors emerging from this study (the ‘technoconomy’, addiction and IT measures) were also identified as contributors to fraud, particularly relevant to the twenty-first century, and consequently, a refined conceptual framework is presented in the discussion and conclusion to the paper.

Analysing industry needs to fine tune IPM project activities

As a first step to better targeting the activities of a project for improving management of western flower thrips, Frankliniella occidentialis, (WFT) in field grown vegetable crops, we surveyed growers, consultants and other agribusiness personnel in two regions of Queensland. Using face-to-face interviews, we collected data on key pests and measures used to manage them, the importance of WFT and associated viral diseases, sources of pest management information and additional skills and knowledge needed by growers and industry. Responses were similar in the two regions. While capsicum growers in one northern Queensland district had suffered serious losses from WFT damage in 2002, in general the pest was not seen as a major problem. In cucurbit crops, the silverleaf whitefly (Bemisia tabaci biotype B) was considered the most difficult insect pest to manage. Pest control tactics were largely based on pesticides although many respondents mentioned non-chemical methods such as good farm hygiene practices, control of weed hosts and regular crop monitoring, particularly when prompted. Respondents wanted to know more about pest identification, biology and damage, spray application and the best use of insecticides. Natural enemies were mentioned infrequently. Keeping up to date with available pesticide options, availability of new chemicals and options for a district-wide approach to managing pests emerged as key issues. Growers identified agricultural distributors, consultants, Queensland Department of Primary Industries staff, other growers and their own experience as important sources of information. Field days, workshops and seminars did not rank highly. Busy vegetable growers wanted these activities to be short and relevant, and preferred to be contacted by post and facsimile rather than email. In response to these results, we are focusing on three core, interrelated project extension strategies: (i) short workshops, seminars and farm walks to provide opportunities for discussion, training and information sharing with growers and their agribusiness advisors; (ii) communication via newsletters and information leaflets; (iii) support for commercialisation of services.

Strip-loaded waveguide using an underlay

We describe how an ion-exchange waveguide was used as a strip-loading region for a planar polymer waveguide. The loading strip forms an underlay that is well preserved in the substrate. Some branching-channel waveguides were formed by this method, and wall losses were measured. The result shows that the wall losses decrease as a result of strip loading.

Resolution of Cryptic Species Complexes of Tephritid Pests to Enhance SIT Application and Facilitate International Trade

Tephritid fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are considered by far the most important group of horticultural pests worldwide. Female fruit flies lay eggs directly into ripening fruit, where the maggots feed causing fruit loss. Each and every continent is plagued by a number of fruit fly pests, both indigenous as well as invasive ones, causing tremendous economic losses. In addition to the direct losses through damage, they can negatively impact commodity trade through restrictions to market access. The quarantine and regulatory controls put in place to manage them are expensive, while the on-farm control costs and loss of crop affect the general well-being of growers. These constraints can have huge implications on loss in revenues and limitations to developing fruit and vegetable-based agroindustries in developing, emergent and developed nations. Because fruit flies are a global problem, the study of their biology and management requires significant international attention to overcome the hurdles they pose. The Joint Food and Agriculture Organisation / International Atomic Energy Agency (FAO/IAEA) Programme on Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture has been on the foreground in assisting Member States in developing and validating environment-friendly fruit fly suppression systems to support viable fresh fruit and vegetable production and export industries. Such international attention has resulted in the successful development and validation of a Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) package for the Mediterranean fruit fly. Although demands for R&D support with respect to Mediterranean fruit fly are diminishing due to successful integration of this package into sustainable control programmes against this pest in many countries, there were increasing demands from Member States in Africa, Asia and Latin America, to address other major fruit fly pests and a related, but sometimes neglected issue of tephritid species complexes of economic importance. Any research, whether it is basic or applied, requires a taxonomic framework that provides reliable and universally recognized entities and names. Among the currently recognized major fruit fly pests, there are groups of species whose morphology is very similar or identical, but biologically they are distinct species. As such, some insect populations that are grouped taxonomically within the same pest species, display different biological and genetic traits and show reproductive isolation which suggest that they are different species. On the other hand, different species may have been taxonomically described, but there may be doubt as to whether they actually represent distinct biological species or merely geographical variants of the same species. This uncertain taxonomic status has practical implications on the effective development and use of the SIT against such complexes, particularly at the time of determining which species to mass-rear, and significantly affects international movement of fruit and vegetables through the establishment of trade barriers to important agricultural commodities which are hosts to these pest tephritid species...

Successful management of colletotrichum crown and stolon rot in runner production in sub-tropical Australia

Crown, stolon, and petiole rots caused by Colletotrichum gloeosporioides (C.g.) were first identified in runner beds of the Queensland Approved Runner Scheme (QARS) in February 1989. The outbreaks occurred annually from 1990 to 1994. Minor losses in subsequent fruit crops occurred from 1990 to 1993, with 50% post-establishment losses occurring on fruit farms in southeast Queensland in 1994. The objective of this work was to provide a control strategy for the disease that would give stability to the QARS. Runner-bed trials in 1993-1994 showed that Octave® (462 g/kg prochloraz as the MnCl2 complex) was highly effective in reducing the incidence field symptoms and laboratory recovery of C.g. from symptomless petioles. A simple detached petiole laboratory test for measuring fungicide efficacy in runner bed trials and for laboratory screening of fungicides, is described. Scheme protocols were changed to require that only foundation plants from tissue culture were allowed onto QARS sites. These were to be symptomless and to have tested negative for the presence of C.g. The application of Octave® at fortnightly intervals in all QARS nurseries has reduced the level of visible symptoms and the laboratory recovery of C.g. from symptomless petioles to almost zero.

Identification of quantitative trait loci for resistance to two species of root-lesion nematode (Pratylenchus thornei and P. neglectus) in wheat

Pratylenchus thornei and P. neglectus are two species of root-lesion nematode that cause substantial yield losses in wheat. No commercially available wheat variety has resistance to both species. A doubled-haploid population developed from a cross between the synthetic hexaploid wheat line CPI133872 and the bread wheat Janz was used to locate and tag quantitative trait loci (QTLs) associated with resistance to both P. thornei and P. neglectus. Wheat plants were inoculated with both species of nematode in independent replicated glasshouse trials repeated over 2 years. Known locations of wheat microsatellite markers were used to construct a framework map. After an initial single-marker analysis to detect marker-trait linkages, chromosome regions associated with putative QTLs were targetted with microsatellite markers to increase map density in the chromosome regions of interest. In total, 148 wheat microsatellite markers and 21 amplified fragment length polymorphism markers were mapped. The codominant microsatellite marker Xbarc183 on the distal end of chromosome 6DS was allelic for resistance to both P. thornei and P. neglectus. The QTL were designated QRlnt.lrc-6D.1 and QRlnn.lrc-6D.1, for the 2 traits, respectively. The allele inherited from CPI133872 explained 22.0-24.2% of the phenotypic variation for P. thornei resistance, and the allele inherited from Janz accounted for 11.3-14.0% of the phenotypic variation for P. neglectus resistance. Composite interval mapping identified markers that flank a second major QTL on chromosome 6DL (QRlnt.lrc-6D.2) that explained 8.3-13.4% of the phenotypic variation for P. thornei resistance. An additional major QTL associated with P. neglectus resistance was detected on chromosome 4DS (QRlnn.lrc-4D.1) and explained a further 10.3-15.4% of the phenotypic variation. The identification and tagging of nematode resistance genes with molecular markers will allow appropriate allele combinations to be selected, which will aid the successful breeding of wheat with dual nematode resistance.

Izmir subterranean clover (Trifolium subterraneum L. var. subterraneum)

Izmir is a hardseeded, early flowering, subterranean clover of var. subterraneum (Katz. et Morley) Zohary and Heller collected from Turkey and developed by the collaborating organisations of the National Annual Pasture Legume Improvement Program. It is a more hardseeded replacement for Nungarin and best suited to well-drained, moderately acidic soils in areas with a growing season of less than 4.5 months. Izmir seed production and regeneration densities in 3-year pasture phases were similar to Nungarin in 21 trials across southern Australia, but markedly greater in years following a crop or no seed set. Over all measurements, Izmir produced 10% more winter herbage and 7% more spring herbage than Nungarin. Its greater hardseededness and good seed production, makes it better suited to cropping rotations than Nungarin. Softening of Izmir hard seeds occurs later in the summer–autumn period than Nungarin, giving it slightly greater protection from seed losses following false breaks to the season. Izmir is recommended for sowing in Western Australia, New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Queensland. Izmir has been granted Plant Breeders Rights in Australia.

Children’s personal exposure to air pollution in rural villages in Bhutan

Exposure assessment studies conducted in developing countries have been based on fixed-site monitoring to date. This is a major deficiency, leading to errors in estimating the actual exposures, which are a function of time spent and pollutant concentrations in different microenvironments. This study quantified school children’s daily personal exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP) using real-time monitoring, as well as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and NO2 using passive sampling in rural Bhutan in order to determine the factors driving the exposures. An activity diary was used to track children’s time activity patterns, and difference in mean exposure levels across sex and indoor/outdoor were investigated with ANOVA. 82 children, attending three primary schools participated in this study; S1 and S2 during the wet season and S3 during the dry season. Mean daily UFP exposure (cm-3) was 1.08 × 104 for children attending S1, 9.81 × 103 for S2, and 4.19 × 104 for S3. The mean daily NO2 exposure (µg m-3) was 4.27 for S1, 3.33 for S2 and 5.38 for S3 children. Likewise, children attending S3 also experienced higher daily exposure to a majority of the VOCs than those attending S1 and S2. Time-series of UFP personal exposures provided detailed information on identifying sources of these particles and quantifying their contributions to the total daily exposures for each microenvironment. The highest UFP exposure resulted from cooking/eating, contributing to 64% of the daily exposure, due to firewood combustion in houses using traditional mud cookstoves. The lowest UFP exposures were during the hours that children spent outdoors at school. The outcomes of this study highlight the significant contributions of lifestyle and socio-economic factors in personal exposures and have applications in environmental risk assessment and household air pollution mitigation in Bhutan.

Lung cancer risk of airborne particles for Italian population

Airborne particles, including both ultrafine and supermicrometric particles, contain various carcinogens. Exposure and risk-assessment studies regularly use particle mass concentration as dosimetry parameter, therefore neglecting the potential impact of ultrafine particles due to their negligible mass compared to supermicrometric particles. The main purpose of this study was the characterization of lung cancer risk due to exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and some heavy metals associated with particle inhalation by Italian non-smoking people. A risk-assessment scheme, modified from an existing risk model, was applied to estimate the cancer risk contribution from both ultrafine and supermicrometric particles. Exposure assessment was carried out on the basis of particle number distributions measured in 25 smoke-free microenvironments in Italy. The predicted lung cancer risk was then compared to the cancer incidence rate in Italy to assess the number of lung cancer cases attributed to airborne particle inhalation, which represents one of the main causes of lung cancer, apart from smoking. Ultrafine particles are associated with a much higher risk than supermicrometric particles, and the modified risk-assessment scheme provided a more accurate estimate than the conventional scheme. Great attention has to be paid to indoor microenvironments and, in particular, to cooking and eating times, which represent the major contributors to lung cancer incidence in the Italian population. The modified risk assessment scheme can serve as a tool for assessing environmental quality, as well as setting up exposure standards for particulate matter.

The Effect of Framing on Layoff Decisions: Are More-Experienced Managers More Rational? Does Computerized Data Make Any Difference?

[Excerpt] The effects of framing on decisions has been widely studied, producing research that suggests individuals respond to framing in predictable and fairly consistent ways (Bazerman, 1984, 1990; Tversky & Kahneman, 1986; Thaler, 1980). The essential finding from this body of research is that "individuals treat risks concerning perceived gains (for example, saving jobs and plants) differently from risks concerning perceived losses (losing jobs and plants)" (Bazerman, 1990, pp. 49-50). Specifically, individuals tend to avoid risks concerning gains, and seek risks concerning losses.