Short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal by neural networks and wavelet transform

This paper proposes artificial neural networks in combination with wavelet transform for short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal. The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. Results from a real-world case study are presented. A comparison is carried out, taking into account the results obtained with other approaches. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scheduling maintenance activities of electric power transmission networks using an hybrid constraint method

In this paper we present a Constraint Logic Programming (CLP) based model, and hybrid solving method for the Scheduling of Maintenance Activities in the Power Transmission Network. The model distinguishes from others not only because of its completeness but also by the way it models and solves the Electric Constraints. Specifically we present a efficient filtering algorithm for the Electrical Constraints. Furthermore, the solving method improves the pure CLP methods efficiency by integrating a type of Local Search technique with CLP. To test the approach we compare the method results with another method using a 24 bus network, which considerers 42 tasks and 24 maintenance periods.

Intelligent energy resource management considering vehicle-to-grid: A simulated annealing approach

This paper proposes a simulated annealing (SA) approach to address energy resources management from the point of view of a virtual power player (VPP) operating in a smart grid. Distributed generation, demand response, and gridable vehicles are intelligently managed on a multiperiod basis according to V2G user´s profiles and requirements. Apart from using the aggregated resources, the VPP can also purchase additional energy from a set of external suppliers. The paper includes a case study for a 33 bus distribution network with 66 generators, 32 loads, and 1000 gridable vehicles. The results of the SA approach are compared with a methodology based on mixed-integer nonlinear programming. A variation of this method, using ac load flow, is also used and the results are compared with the SA solution using network simulation. The proposed SA approach proved to be able to obtain good solutions in low execution times, providing VPPs with suitable decision support for the management of a large number of distributed resources.

Hybrid fuzzy Monte Carlo technique for reliability assessment in transmission power systems

This paper proposes a new methodology to reduce the probability of occurring states that cause load curtailment, while minimizing the involved costs to achieve that reduction. The methodology is supported by a hybrid method based on Fuzzy Set and Monte Carlo Simulation to catch both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters of transmission power system. The novelty of this research work consists in proposing two fundamentals approaches: 1) a global steady approach which deals with building the model of a faulted transmission power system aiming at minimizing the unavailability corresponding to each faulted component in transmission power system. This, results in the minimal global cost investment for the faulted components in a system states sample of the transmission network; 2) a dynamic iterative approach that checks individually the investment’s effect on the transmission network. A case study using the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Buses is presented to illustrate in detail the application of the proposed methodology.

An integrated approach for distributed energy resource short term scheduling in smart grids considering realistic power system simulation

The large increase of distributed energy resources, including distributed generation, storage systems and demand response, especially in distribution networks, makes the management of the available resources a more complex and crucial process. With wind based generation gaining relevance, in terms of the generation mix, the fact that wind forecasting accuracy rapidly drops with the increase of the forecast anticipation time requires to undertake short-term and very short-term re-scheduling so the final implemented solution enables the lowest possible operation costs. This paper proposes a methodology for energy resource scheduling in smart grids, considering day ahead, hour ahead and five minutes ahead scheduling. The short-term scheduling, undertaken five minutes ahead, takes advantage of the high accuracy of the very-short term wind forecasting providing the user with more efficient scheduling solutions. The proposed method uses a Genetic Algorithm based approach for optimization that is able to cope with the hard execution time constraint of short-term scheduling. Realistic power system simulation, based on PSCAD , is used to validate the obtained solutions. The paper includes a case study with a 33 bus distribution network with high penetration of distributed energy resources implemented in PSCAD .

The verification of temporal KBS: SPARSE - a case study in power systems

In this paper we present VERITAS, a tool that focus time maintenance, that is one of the most important processes in the engineering of the time during the development of KBS. The verification and validation (V&V) process is part of a wider process denominated knowledge maintenance, in which an enterprise systematically gathers, organizes, shares, and analyzes knowledge to accomplish its goals and mission. The V&V process states if the software requirements specifications have been correctly and completely fulfilled. The methodologies proposed in software engineering have showed to be inadequate for Knowledge Based Systems (KBS) validation and verification, since KBS present some particular characteristics. VERITAS is an automatic tool developed for KBS verification which is able to detect a large number of knowledge anomalies. It addresses many relevant aspects considered in real applications, like the usage of rule triggering selection mechanisms and temporal reasoning.

Virtual power producers market strategies

This paper presents MASCEM - a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. MASCEM uses game theory, machine learning techniques, scenario analysis and optimisation techniques to model market agents and to provide them with decision-support. This paper mainly focus on the MASCEM ability to provide the means to model and simulate Virtual Power Producers (VPP). VPPs are represented as a coalition of agents, with specific characteristics and goals. The paper detail some of the most important aspects considered in VPP formation and in the aggregation of new producers and includes a case study.

Multi-agent electricity market simulation with dynamic strategies & virtual power producers

Distributed energy resources will provide a significant amount of the electricity generation and will be a normal profitable business. In the new decentralized grid, customers will be among the many decentralized players and may even help to co-produce the required energy services such as demand-side management and load shedding. So, they will gain the opportunity to be more active market players. The aggregation of DG plants gives place to a new concept: the Virtual Power Producer (VPP). VPPs can reinforce the importance of these generation technologies making them valuable in electricity markets. In this paper we propose the improvement of MASCEM, a multi-agent simulation tool to study negotiations in electricity spot markets based on different market mechanisms and behavior strategies, in order to take account of decentralized players such as VPP.

LMP based bid formation for virtual power players operating in smart grids

Power system organization has gone through huge changes in the recent years. Significant increase in distributed generation (DG) and operation in the scope of liberalized markets are two relevant driving forces for these changes. More recently, the smart grid (SG) concept gained increased importance, and is being seen as a paradigm able to support power system requirements for the future. This paper proposes a computational architecture to support day-ahead Virtual Power Player (VPP) bid formation in the smart grid context. This architecture includes a forecasting module, a resource optimization and Locational Marginal Price (LMP) computation module, and a bid formation module. Due to the involved problems characteristics, the implementation of this architecture requires the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are used for resource and load forecasting and Evolutionary Particle Swarm Optimization (EPSO) is used for energy resource scheduling. The paper presents a case study that considers a 33 bus distribution network that includes 67 distributed generators, 32 loads and 9 storage units.

Logic programming and fuzzy Monte Carlo for distribution network reconfiguration

This paper present a methodology to choose the distribution networks reconfiguration that presents the lower power losses. The proposed methodology is based on statistical failure and repair data of the distribution power system components and uses fuzzy-probabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method using fuzzy sets and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzyprobabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A logic programming algorithm is applied, once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo Simulation, to get all possible reconfigurations for each system state. To evaluate the line flows and bus voltages and to identify if there is any overloading, and/or voltage violation an AC load flow has been applied to select the feasible reconfiguration with lower power losses. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, the paper includes a case study that considers a 115 buses distribution network.

A new approach for multi-agent coalition formation and management in the scope of electricity markets

This paper presents a new methodology for the creation and management of coalitions in Electricity Markets. This approach is tested using the multi-agent market simulator MASCEM, taking advantage of its ability to provide the means to model and simulate VPP (Virtual Power Producers). VPPs are represented as coalitions of agents, with the capability of negotiating both in the market, and internally, with their members, in order to combine and manage their individual specific characteristics and goals, with the strategy and objectives of the VPP itself. The new features include the development of particular individual facilitators to manage the communications amongst the members of each coalition independently from the rest of the simulation, and also the mechanisms for the classification of the agents that are candidates to join the coalition. In addition, a global study on the results of the Iberian Electricity Market is performed, to compare and analyze different approaches for defining consistent and adequate strategies to integrate into the agents of MASCEM. This, combined with the application of learning and prediction techniques provide the agents with the ability to learn and adapt themselves, by adjusting their actions to the continued evolving states of the world they are playing in.

Computational intelligence applications for future power systems

Power system planning, control and operation require an adequate use of existing resources as to increase system efficiency. The use of optimal solutions in power systems allows huge savings stressing the need of adequate optimization and control methods. These must be able to solve the envisaged optimization problems in time scales compatible with operational requirements. Power systems are complex, uncertain and changing environments that make the use of traditional optimization methodologies impracticable in most real situations. Computational intelligence methods present good characteristics to address this kind of problems and have already proved to be efficient for very diverse power system optimization problems. Evolutionary computation, fuzzy systems, swarm intelligence, artificial immune systems, neural networks, and hybrid approaches are presently seen as the most adequate methodologies to address several planning, control and operation problems in power systems. Future power systems, with intensive use of distributed generation and electricity market liberalization increase power systems complexity and bring huge challenges to the forefront of the power industry. Decentralized intelligence and decision making requires more effective optimization and control techniques techniques so that the involved players can make the most adequate use of existing resources in the new context. The application of computational intelligence methods to deal with several problems of future power systems is presented in this chapter. Four different applications are presented to illustrate the promises of computational intelligence, and illustrate their potentials.

Renewable-based generation integration in electricity markets with virtual power producers

The development of renewable energy sources and Distributed Generation (DG) of electricity is of main importance in the way towards a sustainable development. However, the management, in large scale, of these technologies is complicated because of the intermittency of primary resources (wind, sunshine, etc.) and small scale of some plants. The aggregation of DG plants gives place to a new concept: the Virtual Power Producer (VPP). VPPs can reinforce the importance of these generation technologies making them valuable in electricity markets. VPPs can ensure a secure, environmentally friendly generation and optimal management of heat, electricity and cold as well as optimal operation and maintenance of electrical equipment, including the sale of electricity in the energy market. For attaining these goals, there are important issues to deal with, such as reserve management strategies, strategies for bids formulation, the producers’ remuneration, and the producers’ characterization for coalition formation. This chapter presents the most important concepts related with renewable-based generation integration in electricity markets, using VPP paradigm. The presented case studies make use of two main computer applications:ViProd and MASCEM. ViProd simulates VPP operation, including the management of plants in operation. MASCEM is a multi-agent based electricity market simulator that supports the inclusion of VPPs in the players set.

Using an ambient intelligent architecture for developing an intelligent tutoring system for training operators of power system control centres

This paper describes an architecture conceived to integrate Power Sys-tems tools in a Power System Control Centre, based on an Ambient Intelligent (AmI) paradigm. This architecture is an instantiation of the generic architecture proposed in [1] for developing systems that interact with AmI environments. This architecture has been proposed as a consequence of a methodology for the inclu-sion of Artificial Intelligence in AmI environments (ISyRAmI - Intelligent Sys-tems Research for Ambient Intelligence). The architecture presented in the paper will be able to integrate two applications in the control room of a power system transmission network. The first is SPARSE expert system, used to get diagnosis of incidents and to support power restoration. The second application is an Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS) incorporating two training tools. The first tutoring tool is used to train operators to get the diagnosis of incidents. The second one is another tutoring tool used to train operators to perform restoration procedures.

Cyber-physical intelligence in the context of power systems

Cyber-Physical Intelligence is a new concept integrating Cyber-Physical Systems and Intelligent Systems. The paradigm is centered in incorporating intelligent behavior in cyber-physical systems, until now too oriented to the operational technological aspects. In this paper we will describe the use of Cyber-Physical Intelligence in the context of Power Systems, namely in the use of Intelligent SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) systems at different levels of the Power System, from the Power Generation, Transmission, and Distribution Control Centers till the customers houses.