Predicting the future effectiveness of protected areas for bird conservation in Mediterranean ecosystems under climate change and novel fire regime scenarios

AimGlobal environmental changes challenge traditional conservation approaches based on the selection of static protected areas due to their limited ability to deal with the dynamic nature of driving forces relevant to biodiversity. The Natura 2000 network (N2000) constitutes a major milestone in biodiversity conservation in Europe, but the degree to which this static network will be able to reach its long-term conservation objectives raises concern. We assessed the changes in the effectiveness of N2000 in a Mediterranean ecosystem between 2000 and 2050 under different combinations of climate and land cover change scenarios. LocationCatalonia, Spain. MethodsPotential distribution changes of several terrestrial bird species of conservation interest included in the European Union's Birds Directive were predicted within an ensemble-forecasting framework that hierarchically integrated climate change and land cover change scenarios. Land cover changes were simulated using a spatially explicit fire-succession model that integrates fire management strategies and vegetation encroachment after the abandonment of cultivated areas as the main drivers of landscape dynamics in Mediterranean ecosystems. ResultsOur results suggest that the amount of suitable habitats for the target species will strongly decrease both inside and outside N2000. However, the effectiveness of N2000 is expected to increase in the next decades because the amount of suitable habitats is predicted to decrease less inside than outside this network. Main conclusionsSuch predictions shed light on the key role that the current N2000may play in the near future and emphasize the need for an integrative conservation perspective wherein agricultural, forest and fire management policies should be considered to effectively preserve key habitats for threatened birds in fire-prone, highly dynamic Mediterranean ecosystems. Results also show the importance of considering landscape dynamics and the synergies between different driving forces when assessing the long-term effectiveness of protected areas for biodiversity conservation.

Bat assemblages in the Nietoperek bat reserve (Western Poland) and their conservation strategies

Międzyrzecz Fortified Front, were Natura 2000 site PLH080003 Nietoperek is situated, was built by the Germans in the 1930s and during the World War II. It is composed of above ground bunkers connected by underground tunnels of ca. 32 km total length. Nietoperek is the eighth largest bats hibernation site in EU. Monthly censuses were carried out from October to April during three consecutive winter seasons (2011/12 – 2013/14) in area covering ca. 30% of the undergrounds. The aims of the study were: (1) to describe changes in numbers of each species in the course of hibernation season, (2) to suggest deadlines for counting particular bat species to obtain maximal numbers and (3) to describe negative impact of tourism on hibernating bats. The results will be useful for restriction of winter tourism in Nietoperek. The total number of bats observed during the study was 37869 individuals of 9 species. Because of difficulties in distinguishing without handling M. mystacinus and M. brandtii were treated as one group. M. myotis constituted from 53% (first season) to 64% (last season) of all hibernating bats. The maximal numbers of individuals were observed in November (first two seasons) and in December (third season). M. daubentonii constituted from 27% (first season) to 21% (last season) and M. nattereri from 10% (first season) to 11% (second season) of all bats. During the three seasons the maximal numbers of M. daubentonii and M. nattereri were observed in November and December respectively. B. barbastellus and P. auritus constituted from 4% (first season) to 2% (last season) of the multi species colony. The maximal numbers of B. barbastellus were observed in January and P. auritus in January (first and second seasons) and in December (third season). Results indicated that the best period for counting maximal numbers of M. myotis and M. daubentonii is November, for M. nattereri is December and for B. barbastellus and P. auritus is January. The study undertaken in the part visited by tourists in winter (total length of 900 m) proved negative effect caused by human disturbance with 23% decline of total bat numbers.

Areas of high conservation value in Georgia: present and future threats by invasive alien plants

Georgia is known for its extraordinary rich biodiversity of plants, which may now be threatened due to the spread of invasive alien plants (IAP). We aimed to identify (i) the most prominent IAP out of 9 selected potentially invasive and harmful IAP IAP by predicting thetheir distribution of 9 selected IAP under current and future climate conditions in Georgia as well as in its 43 Protected Areas, as a proxy for areas of high conservation value and (ii) the Protected Areas most at risk due to these IAP. We used species distribution models based on 6 climate variables and then filtered the obtained distributions based on maps of soil and vegetation types, and on recorded occurrences, resulting into the predicted ecological distribution of the 9 IAP's at a resolution of 1km2. We foundOur habitat suitability analysis showed that Ambrosia artemisiifolia, (24% and 40%) Robinia pseudoacaia (14% and 19%) and Ailanthus altissima (9% and 11%) have the largest potential distribution are the most abundant (predicted % area covered)d) IAP, with Ailanthus altissima the potentially most increasing one over the next fifty years (from 9% to 13% and from 11% to 25%), for Georgia and the Protected Areas, respectively. Furthermore, our results show indicate two areas in Georgia that are under specifically high threat, i.e. the area around Tbilisi and an area in the western part of Georgia (Adjara), both at lower altitudes. Our procedure to identify areas of high conservation value most at risk by IAP has been applied for the first time. It will help national authorities in prioritizing their measures to protect Georgia's outstanding biodiversity from the negative impact of IAP.

A web-based tool to aid the identification of chemicals potentially posing a health risk through percutaneous exposure

Occupational hygiene practitioners typically assess the risk posed by occupational exposure by comparing exposure measurements to regulatory occupational exposure limits (OELs). In most jurisdictions, OELs are only available for exposure by the inhalation pathway. Skin notations are used to indicate substances for which dermal exposure may lead to health effects. However, these notations are either present or absent and provide no indication of acceptable levels of exposure. Furthermore, the methodology and framework for assigning skin notation differ widely across jurisdictions resulting in inconsistencies in the substances that carry notations. The UPERCUT tool was developed in response to these limitations. It helps occupational health stakeholders to assess the hazard associated with dermal exposure to chemicals. UPERCUT integrates dermal quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) and toxicological data to provide users with a skin hazard index called the dermal hazard ratio (DHR) for the substance and scenario of interest. The DHR is the ratio between the estimated 'received' dose and the 'acceptable' dose. The 'received' dose is estimated using physico-chemical data and information on the exposure scenario provided by the user (body parts exposure and exposure duration), and the 'acceptable' dose is estimated using inhalation OELs and toxicological data. The uncertainty surrounding the DHR is estimated with Monte Carlo simulation. Additional information on the selected substances includes intrinsic skin permeation potential of the substance and the existence of skin notations. UPERCUT is the only available tool that estimates the absorbed dose and compares this to an acceptable dose. In the absence of dermal OELs it provides a systematic and simple approach for screening dermal exposure scenarios for 1686 substances.

Hybridization Capture Using RAD Probes (hyRAD), a New Tool for Performing Genomic Analyses on Collection Specimens.

In the recent years, many protocols aimed at reproducibly sequencing reduced-genome subsets in non-model organisms have been published. Among them, RAD-sequencing is one of the most widely used. It relies on digesting DNA with specific restriction enzymes and performing size selection on the resulting fragments. Despite its acknowledged utility, this method is of limited use with degraded DNA samples, such as those isolated from museum specimens, as these samples are less likely to harbor fragments long enough to comprise two restriction sites making possible ligation of the adapter sequences (in the case of double-digest RAD) or performing size selection of the resulting fragments (in the case of single-digest RAD). Here, we address these limitations by presenting a novel method called hybridization RAD (hyRAD). In this approach, biotinylated RAD fragments, covering a random fraction of the genome, are used as baits for capturing homologous fragments from genomic shotgun sequencing libraries. This simple and cost-effective approach allows sequencing of orthologous loci even from highly degraded DNA samples, opening new avenues of research in the field of museum genomics. Not relying on the restriction site presence, it improves among-sample loci coverage. In a trial study, hyRAD allowed us to obtain a large set of orthologous loci from fresh and museum samples from a non-model butterfly species, with a high proportion of single nucleotide polymorphisms present in all eight analyzed specimens, including 58-year-old museum samples. The utility of the method was further validated using 49 museum and fresh samples of a Palearctic grasshopper species for which the spatial genetic structure was previously assessed using mtDNA amplicons. The application of the method is eventually discussed in a wider context. As it does not rely on the restriction site presence, it is therefore not sensitive to among-sample loci polymorphisms in the restriction sites that usually causes loci dropout. This should enable the application of hyRAD to analyses at broader evolutionary scales.

L'échographie dans le dépistage du cancer du sein: un outil efficace dans un dépistage personnalisé [Ultrasound for Breast Cancer Screening: an Effective Tool in a Personalized Screening].

Screening mammography is the only imaging modality with proved decrease in breast cancer mortality. Ultrasound has been proposed as additional tool for screening. Controversies remain about the real value of sonography in this setting. In Caucasian women with dense breast, sonography improves significantly breast cancer detection, but also increases the false positive cases, biopsies and costs. A careful selection of women who may benefit from additional screening with sonography is mandatory.

Importance of amoebae as a tool to isolate amoeba-resisting microorganisms and for their ecology and evolution: the Chlamydia paradigm.

Free-living amoebae are distributed worldwide and are frequently in contact with humans and animals. As cysts, they can survive in very harsh conditions and resist biocides and most disinfection procedures. Several microorganisms, called amoeba-resisting microorganisms (ARMs), have evolved to survive and multiply within these protozoa. Among them are many important pathogens, such as Legionella and Mycobacteria, and also several newly discovered Chlamydia-related bacteria, such as Parachlamydia acanthamoebae, Estrella lausannensis, Simkania negevensis or Waddlia chondrophila whose pathogenic role towards human or animal is strongly suspected. Amoebae represent an evolutionary crib for their resistant microorganisms since they can exchange genetic material with other ARMs and develop virulence traits that will be further used to infect other professional phagocytes. Moreover, amoebae constitute an ideal tool to isolate strict intracellular microorganisms from complex microbiota, since they will feed on other fast-growing bacteria, such as coliforms potentially present in the investigated samples. The paradigm that ARMs are likely resistant to macrophages, another phagocytic cell, and that they are likely virulent towards humans and animals is only partially true. Indeed, we provide examples of the Chlamydiales order that challenge this assumption and suggest that the ability to multiply in protozoa does not strictly correlate with pathogenicity and that we should rather use the ability to replicate in multiple and diverse eukaryotic cells as an indirect marker of virulence towards mammals. Thus, cell-culture-based microbial culturomics should be used in the future to try to discover new pathogenic bacterial species.

Vulnerability of stream biota to climate change in mediterranean climate regions: a synthesis of ecological responses and conservation challenges

Freshwater species worldwide are experiencing dramatic declines partly attributable to ongoing climate change. It is expected that the future effects of climate change could be particularly severe in mediterranean climate (med-) regions, which host many endemic species already under great stress from the high level of human development. In this article, we review the climate and climate-induced changes in streams of med-regions and the responses of stream biota, focusing on both observed and anticipated ecological responses. We also discuss current knowledge gaps and conservation challenges. Expected climate alterations have already been observed in the last decades, and include: increased annual average air temperatures; decreased annual average precipitation; hydrologic alterations; and an increase in frequency, intensity and duration of extreme events, such as floods, droughts and fires. Recent observations, which are concordant with forecasts built, show stream biota of med-regions when facing climate changes tend to be displaced towards higher elevations and upper latitudes, communities tend to change their composition and homogenize, while some life-history traits seem to provide biota with resilience and resistance to adapt to the new conditions (as being short-lived, small, and resistant to low streamflow and desiccation). Nevertheless, such responses may be insufficient to cope with current and future environmental changes. Accurate forecasts of biotic changes and possible adaptations are difficult to obtain in med-regions mainly because of the difficulty of distinguishing disturbances due to natural variability from the effects of climate change, particularly regarding hydrology. Long-term studies are needed to disentangle such variability and improve knowledge regarding the ecological responses and the detection of early warning signals to climate change. Investments should focus on taxa beyond fish and macroinvertebrates, and in covering the less studied regions of Chile and South Africa. Scientists, policy makers and water managers must be involved in the climate change dialogue because the freshwater conservation concerns are huge.

Freshwater biodiversity and conservation in mediterranean climate streams of Chile.

In Chile, mediterranean climate conditions only occur in the Central Zone (ChMZ). Despite its small area, this mediterranean climate region (med-region) has been recognised as a hotspot for biodiversity. However, in contrast to the rivers of other med-regions, the rivers in the ChMZ have been studied infrequently, and knowledge of their freshwater biodiversity is scarce and fragmented. We gathered information on the freshwater biodiversity of ChMZ, and present a review of the current knowledge of the principal floral and faunal groups. Existing knowledge indicates that the ChMZ has high levels of endemism, with many primitive species being of Gondwanan origin. Although detailed information is available on most floral groups, most faunal groups remain poorly known. In addition, numerous rivers in the ChMZ remain completely unexplored. Taxonomic specialists are scarce, and the information available on freshwater biodiversity has resulted from studies with objectives that did not directly address biodiversity issues. Research funding in this med-region has a strong applied character and is not focused on the knowledge of natural systems and their biodiversity. Species conservation policies are urgently required in this highly diverse med-region, which is also the most severely impacted and most populated region of the country.

Chemical profiling: a tool to decipher the structure and organisation of illicit drugs markets: an 8-year study in Western Switzerland

Illicit drug analyses usually focus on the identification and quantitation of questioned material to support the judicial process. In parallel, more and more laboratories develop physical and chemical profiling methods in a forensic intelligence perspective. The analysis of large databases resulting from this approach enables not only to draw tactical and operational intelligence, but may also contribute to the strategic overview of drugs markets. In Western Switzerland, the chemical analysis of illicit drug seizures is centralised in a laboratory hosted by the University of Lausanne. For over 8 years, this laboratory has analysed 5875 cocaine and 2728 heroin specimens, coming from respectively 1138 and 614 seizures operated by police and border guards or customs. Chemical (major and minor alkaloids, purity, cutting agents, chemical class), physical (packaging and appearance) as well as circumstantial (criminal case number, mass of drug seized, date and place of seizure) information are collated in a dedicated database for each specimen. The study capitalises on this extended database and defines several indicators to characterise the structure of drugs markets, to follow-up on their evolution and to compare cocaine and heroin markets. Relational, spatial, temporal and quantitative analyses of data reveal the emergence and importance of distribution networks. They enable to evaluate the cross-jurisdictional character of drug trafficking and the observation time of drug batches, as well as the quantity of drugs entering the market every year. Results highlight the stable nature of drugs markets over the years despite the very dynamic flows of distribution and consumption. This research work illustrates how the systematic analysis of forensic data may elicit knowledge on criminal activities at a strategic level. In combination with information from other sources, such knowledge can help to devise intelligence-based preventive and repressive measures and to discuss the impact of countermeasures.

Identification and conservation of remnant genetic resources of brown trout in relict populations from Western Mediterranean streams

Brown trout is a cold-adapted freshwater species with restricted distribution to headwater streams in rivers of the South European peninsulas, where populations are highly vulnerable because Mediterranean regions are highly sensitive to the global climatic warming. Moreover, these populations are endangered due to the introgressive hybridization with cultured stocks. Individuals from six remnant populations in Western Mediterranean rivers were sequenced for the complete mitochondrial DNA control region and genotyped for 11 nuclear markers. Three different brown trout lineages were present in the studied region. Significant genetic divergence was observed among locations and a strong effect of genetic drift was suggested. An important stocking impact (close to 25%) was detected in the zone. Significant correlations between mitochondrial-based rates of hatchery introgression and water flow variation suggested a higher impact of stocked females in unstable habitats. In spite of hatchery introgression, all populations remained highly differentiated, suggesting that native genetic resources are still abundant. However, climatic predictions indicated that suitable habitats for the species in these rivers will be reduced and hence trout populations are highly endangered and vulnerable. Thus, management policies should take into account these predictions to design upstream refuge areas to protect remnant native trout in the region

Validation of plant dynamic model by online and laboratory measurements – a tool to predict online COD loads out of production of mechanical printing papers

COD discharges out of processes have increased in line with elevating brightness demands for mechanical pulp and papers. The share of lignin-like substances in COD discharges is on average 75%. In this thesis, a plant dynamic model was created and validated as a means to predict COD loading and discharges out of a mill. The assays were carried out in one paper mill integrate producing mechanical printing papers. The objective in the modeling of plant dynamics was to predict day averages of COD load and discharges out of mills. This means that online data, like 1) the level of large storage towers of pulp and white water 2) pulp dosages, 3) production rates and 4) internal white water flows and discharges were used to create transients into the balances of solids and white water, referred to as “plant dynamics”. A conversion coefficient was verified between TOC and COD. The conversion coefficient was used for predicting the flows from TOC to COD to the waste water treatment plant. The COD load was modeled with similar uncertainty as in reference TOC sampling. The water balance of waste water treatment was validated by the reference concentration of COD. The difference of COD predictions against references was within the same deviation of TOC-predictions. The modeled yield losses and retention values of TOC in pulping and bleaching processes and the modeled fixing of colloidal TOC to solids between the pulping plant and the aeration basin in the waste water treatment plant were similar to references presented in literature. The valid water balances of the waste water treatment plant and the reduction model of lignin-like substances produced a valid prediction of COD discharges out of the mill. A 30% increase in the release of lignin-like substances in the form of production problems was observed in pulping and bleaching processes. The same increase was observed in COD discharges out of waste water treatment. In the prediction of annual COD discharge, it was noticed that the reduction of lignin has a wide deviation from year to year and from one mill to another. This made it difficult to compare the parameters of COD discharges validated in plant dynamic simulation with another mill producing mechanical printing papers. However, a trend of moving from unbleached towards high-brightness TMP in COD discharges was valid.

Statistical Methods for Conservation and Alignment Quality in Proteins

Construction of multiple sequence alignments is a fundamental task in Bioinformatics. Multiple sequence alignments are used as a prerequisite in many Bioinformatics methods, and subsequently the quality of such methods can be critically dependent on the quality of the alignment. However, automatic construction of a multiple sequence alignment for a set of remotely related sequences does not always provide biologically relevant alignments.Therefore, there is a need for an objective approach for evaluating the quality of automatically aligned sequences. The profile hidden Markov model is a powerful approach in comparative genomics. In the profile hidden Markov model, the symbol probabilities are estimated at each conserved alignment position. This can increase the dimension of parameter space and cause an overfitting problem. These two research problems are both related to conservation. We have developed statistical measures for quantifying the conservation of multiple sequence alignments. Two types of methods are considered, those identifying conserved residues in an alignment position, and those calculating positional conservation scores. The positional conservation score was exploited in a statistical prediction model for assessing the quality of multiple sequence alignments. The residue conservation score was used as part of the emission probability estimation method proposed for profile hidden Markov models. The results of the predicted alignment quality score highly correlated with the correct alignment quality scores, indicating that our method is reliable for assessing the quality of any multiple sequence alignment. The comparison of the emission probability estimation method with the maximum likelihood method showed that the number of estimated parameters in the model was dramatically decreased, while the same level of accuracy was maintained. To conclude, we have shown that conservation can be successfully used in the statistical model for alignment quality assessment and in the estimation of emission probabilities in the profile hidden Markov models.