Threshold detection: matching statistical methodology to ecological questions and conservation planning objectives

Two types of ecological thresholds are now being widely used to develop conservation targets: breakpoint-based thresholds represent tipping points where system properties change dramatically, whereas classification thresholds identify groups of data points with contrasting properties. Both breakpoint-based and classification thresholds are useful tools in evidence-based conservation. However, it is critical that the type of threshold to be estimated corresponds with the question of interest and that appropriate statistical procedures are used to determine its location. On the basis of their statistical properties, we recommend using piecewise regression methods to identify breakpoint-based thresholds and discriminant analysis or classification and regression trees to identify classification thresholds.

Changes in heron and egret populations on the Laurentian Great Lakes and connecting channels, 1977-2009

Canadian and U.S. federal wildlife agencies completed four decadal surveys, spanning the years 1977 to 2009, to census colonial waterbirds breeding on the Great Lakes and adjoining bodies of water. In this paper, we reports abundance, distribution, and general population trends of three species: Black-crowned Night-Heron (Nycticorax nycticorax), Great Egret (Ardea alba), and Great Blue Heron (Ardea herodias). Estimates of nest numbers ranged from approximately 4000-6100 for the Black-crowned Night-Heron, 250-1900 for the Great Egret, and 3800-6400 for the Great Blue Heron. Average annual rates of change in nest numbers between the first (1977) and fourth (2008) census were −1% for the Black-crowned Night-Heron, +23% for the Great Egret, and −0.27% for the Great Blue Heron. Across the 30-year census, Black-crowned Night-Heron estimates decreased in U.S. (−57%) but increased (+18%) in Canadian waters, Great Egret nests increased 1381% in Canadian waters with a smaller, but still substantial increase in the number of nests at U.S. colonies (+613%), and Great Blue Heron numbers increased 148% in Canadian waters and 713% in U.S. waters. Although a single factor cannot be clearly linked to changes observed in each species’ distribution, hydrological variation, habitat succession, nest competition with Double-crested Cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus), and land use changes likely all contributed. Management activities should support both breeding and foraging conditions including restoration of early successional habitats and anticipate continued northward expansions in the distributions of these waterbirds.

Gray-cheeked Thrush (Catharus minimus minimus) distribution and habitat use in a montane forest landscape of western Newfoundland, Canada

Once abundant, the Newfoundland Gray-cheeked Thrush (Catharus minimus minimus) has declined by as much as 95% since 1975. Underlying cause(s) of this population collapse are not known, although hypotheses include loss of winter habitat and the introduction of red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) to Newfoundland. Uncertainties regarding habitat needs are also extensive, and these knowledge gaps are an impediment to conservation. We investigated neighborhood (i.e., within 115 m [4.1 ha]) and landscape scale (i.e., within 1250 m [490.8 ha]) habitat associations of Gray-cheeked Thrush in a 200-km² study area in the Long Range Mountains of western Newfoundland, where elevations range from 300-600 m and landcover was a matrix of old growth fir forest, 6- to 8-year-old clearcuts, coniferous scrub, bogs, and barrens. Thrushes were restricted to elevations above ~375 m, and occurrence was strongly positively related to elevation. Occurrence was also positively related to cover of tall scrub forest at the neighborhood scale, and at the landscape scale showed curvilinear relations with the proportion of both tall scrub and old growth forest that peaked with intermediate amounts of cover. Occurrence of thrushes was also highest when clearcuts made up 60%-70% of neighborhood landcover, but was negatively related to cover of clearcuts in the broader landscape. Finally, occurrence was highest in areas having 50% cover of partially harvested forest (strip cuts or row cuts) at the neighborhood scale, but because this treatment was limited to one small portion of the study area, this finding may be spurious. Taken together, our results suggest selection for mixed habitats and sensitivity to both neighborhood and landscape-scale habitat. More research is needed on responses of thrushes to forestry, including use of older clearcuts, partially harvested stands, and precommercially thinned clearcuts. Finally, restriction of thrushes to higher elevations is consistent with the hypothesis that they have been impacted by squirrels, because squirrels were rare or absent at these elevations.

Threat interpretation in anxious children and their mothers: comparison with nonclinical children and the effects of treatment

Interpretation biases towards threat play a prominent role in cognitive theories of anxiety, and have been identified amongst highly anxious adults and children. Little is known, however, about the development of these cognitive biases although family processes have been implicated. The current study investigated the nature of threat interpretation of anxious children and their mothers through (i) comparison of a clinic and non-clinic population, (ii) analysis of individual differences; and (ill) pre- and post-treatment comparisons. Participants were 27 children with a primary anxiety disorder and 33 children from a non-clinic population and their mothers. Children and mothers completed self-report measures of anxiety and indicated their most likely interpretation of ambiguous scenarios. Clinic and non-clinical groups differed significantly on measures of threat interpretation. Furthermore, mothers' and children's threat interpretation correlated significantly. Following treatment for child anxiety, both children and their mothers reported a reduction in threat interpretation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

'Nature Conservation': a new dimension in Open Access publishing bridging science and application

This Editorial presents the focus, scope and policies of the inaugural issue of Nature Conservation, a new open access, peer-reviewed journal bridging natural sciences, social sciences and hands-on applications in conservation management. The journal covers all aspects of nature conservation and aims particularly at facilitating better interaction between scientists and practitioners. The journal will impose no restrictions on manuscript size or the use of colour. We will use an XML-based editorial workflow and several cutting-edge innovations in publishing and information dissemination. These include semantic mark-up of, and enhancements to published text, data, and extensive cross-linking within the journal and to external sources. We believe the journal will make an important contribution to better linking science and practice, offers rapid, peer-reviewed and flexible publication for authors and unrestricted access to content.

Post-normal science and the art of nature conservation

Nature conservation may be considered a post-normal science in that the loss of biodiversity and increasing environmental degradation require urgent action but are characterised by uncertainty at every level. An ‘extended peer community’ with varying skills, perceptions and values are involved in decision-making and implementation of conservation, and the uncertainty involved limits the effectiveness of practice. In this paper we briefly review the key ecological, philosophical and methodological uncertainties associated with conservation, and then highlight the uncertainties and gaps present within the structure and interactions of the conservation community, and which exist mainly between researchers and practitioners, in the context of nature conservation in the UK. We end by concluding that an openly post-normal science framework for conservation, which acknowledges this uncertainty but strives to minimise it, would be a useful progression for nature conservation, and recommend ways in which knowledge transfer between researchers and practitioners can be improved to support robust decision making and conservation enactment.

Pollinator conservation: the difference between managing for pollination services and preserving pollinator diversity

Our review looks at pollinator conservation and highlights the differences in approach between managing for pollination services and preserving pollinator diversity. We argue that ecosystem service management does not equal biodiversity conservation, and that maintaining species diversity is crucial in providing ecosystem resilience in the face of future environmental change. Management and policy measures therefore need to focus on species not just in human dominated landscapes but need to benefit wider diversity of species including those in specialised habitats. We argue that only by adopting a holistic ecosystem approach we can ensure the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity and ecosystem services in the long-term.

Effects of single or repeated amphetamine treatment and withdrawal on lung allergic inflammation in rats

The effects of single or repeated amphetamine (AMPH) treatment and those of AMPH withdrawals on immune-mediated lung inflammatory response were studied in rats. Two experiments were done. In the first, rats egg-albumin (OVA) sensitized were singularly or repeatedly (21 days, once daily) treated with AMPH (1.0 mg/kg) or with a similar number and volume of 0.9% NaCl. The OVA aerosol challenge was performed 12 h after the single or last repeated AMPH treatment and also 72 and 120 h after AMPH withdrawal. In the second experiment, the effects of reserpine (1.0 mg/kg/day for 5 consecutive days) on single AMPH actions on lung allergic response of rats were analyzed. Single and repeated AMPH treatment induced opposite actions on Bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BAL) cellularity of allergic rats: single treatment decreased and repeated treatment increased the total number of cells as well as those of macrophages, neutrophils and eosinophils. Our data also showed that single but not repeated AMPH treatment decreased the number of neutrophils, monocytes and lymphocytes in the peripheral blood, and increased the total number of bone marrow cells in rats sensitized and challenged with OVA. Furthermore, it was shown that reserpine treatment precluded the effects of single AMPH treatment on cellular migration to the lung of OVA-sensitized and challenged rats. It was concluded that AMPH effects on lung inflammatory response and cell recruitment to the lung in allergic rats rely at least partially on corticosterone serum levels. The possible involvement of vesicular monoamine transporter type 2 (VMAT2) with these observed effects was discussed. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An unstructured CVFEM and moving interface algorithm for non-Newtonian Hele-Shaw flows in injection molding

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to develop a novel unstructured simulation approach for injection molding processes described by the Hele-Shaw model. Design/methodology/approach - The scheme involves dual dynamic meshes with active and inactive cells determined from an initial background pointset. The quasi-static pressure solution in each timestep for this evolving unstructured mesh system is approximated using a control volume finite element method formulation coupled to a corresponding modified volume of fluid method. The flow is considered to be isothermal and non-Newtonian. Findings - Supporting numerical tests and performance studies for polystyrene described by Carreau, Cross, Ellis and Power-law fluid models are conducted. Results for the present method are shown to be comparable to those from other methods for both Newtonian fluid and polystyrene fluid injected in different mold geometries. Research limitations/implications - With respect to the methodology, the background pointset infers a mesh that is dynamically reconstructed here, and there are a number of efficiency issues and improvements that would be relevant to industrial applications. For instance, one can use the pointset to construct special bases and invoke a so-called ""meshless"" scheme using the basis. This would require some interesting strategies to deal with the dynamic point enrichment of the moving front that could benefit from the present front treatment strategy. There are also issues related to mass conservation and fill-time errors that might be addressed by introducing suitable projections. The general question of ""rate of convergence"" of these schemes requires analysis. Numerical results here suggest first-order accuracy and are consistent with the approximations made, but theoretical results are not available yet for these methods. Originality/value - This novel unstructured simulation approach involves dual meshes with active and inactive cells determined from an initial background pointset: local active dual patches are constructed ""on-the-fly"" for each ""active point"" to form a dynamic virtual mesh of active elements that evolves with the moving interface.

Conditional treatment and its effect on recidivism

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the effect of the 1985 ”Employment Services for Ex-Offenders” (ESEO) program on recidivism. Initially, the sample has been split randomly in a control group and a treatment group. However, the actual treatment (mainly being job related counseling) only takes place conditional on finding a job, and not having been arrested, for those selected in the treatment group. We use a multiple proportional hazard model with unobserved heterogeneity for job seach and recidivism time which incorporates the conditional treatment effect. We find that the program helps to reduce criminal activity, contrary to the result of the previous analysis of this data set. This finding is important for crime prevention policy.

Knowledge of the patients regarding leprosy and adherence to treatment

Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae. It is known for its great disfiguring capacity and is considered an extremely serious disease to public health worldwide. The state of Ceará ranks 13th in number of cases of leprosy in Brazil, and fourth in Northeastern region, with an average of 2,149 new cases diagnosed every year. This study aimed to evaluate the knowledge of leprosy patients regarding treatment, and to assess the level of treatment adherence and its possible barriers. The study was conducted in the reference center for dermatology, from September 2010 to October 2010, in Fortaleza, Ceará. The study data were collected by means of a structured interview, along with the Morisky-Green test, in order to assess treatment adherence and barriers to adherence. A total of 70 patients were interviewed, out of whom 66 were new cases. The majority of patients were between 42 and 50 years old, and 37 (52.9%) were male. Most patients were clinically classified as presentingmultibacillary leprosy (80%), and 78.6% of them were from Fortaleza, Brazil. The Morisky-Green test indicated that 62.9% of patients presented a low level of adherence (p < 0.005), despite claiming to aware of the disease risks. However, it was observed that 57.1% of the patients had no difficulty adhering to treatment, while 38.6% reported little difficulty. This study shows that despite the patients claiming to be familiar with leprosy and its treatment, the Morisky-Green test clearly demonstrated that they actually were not aware of the principles of therapy, which is evidenced by the low degree of treatment adherence

A weight loss protocol and owners participation in the treatment of canine obesity

O sucesso de um programa de perda de peso para animais de estimação depende da colaboração do proprietário. A adesão deste é fundamental para a correta instituição do manejo alimentar do paciente. Este trabalho teve por objetivo comparar a efetividade de um programa de perda de peso em dois grupos de cães, um mantido sob condições experimentais e outro com seus proprietários. Empregou-se a mesma ração hipocalórica para todos os animais. A quantidade fornecida foi restrita a 60% da necessidade energética de manutenção estimada para o peso corporal meta, definido como o peso autal reduzido em 15%. Os animais foram acompanhados durante 90 dias. Por meio de um questionário padronizado, estudou-se a percepção dos proprietários quanto à obesidade e seu tratamento. Verificou-se que o protocolo e a dieta empregados foram eficazes. Os animais controle apresentaram uma perda de peso média de 1,39% por semana. Os cães de proprietário perderam, em média, 0,75% do peso vivo por semana, resultado estatisticamente menor (P<0,05), o que sugere uma indisponibilidade dos mesmos em cumprir rigorosamente o tratamento. Mesmo com esta perda de peso modesta, foi perceptível a satisfação dos proprietários com os resultados obtidos. O uso de questionários demonstrou ser uma ferramenta importante na investigação das causas e no acompanhamento do tratamento da obesidade canina.

Identificação das condições gerais de conservação dos reservatórios integrantes do sistema de abastecimento de água de Natal

Infrastructure works are included in strategic areas for the social development. For that matter that all of the investments are very important for the social development. When the population has enough water and an acceptable quality, and it includes a wastewater gathering and its treatment, the whole society became less susceptible to the water diseases. Even the Water Supply and the Sewage depend for its perfect operation of reservoirs, or of the accumulation of water to provide the popular necessity, either due to retention or for the treatment wastewarer. These structures present very specific environmental conditions, because the microclimate created around them, like high environmental humidity and for the existence of many harmful substances for the concrete, such as chloride ions presents in water. The reservoir that compose the System of Water Supply of Natal were built between 1970s and 1980s, a period whom the technical and scientific community did not have in-depth studies about the reinforced concrete mechanism of deterioration. Therefore, these reservoirs have been suffered accelerated deterioration progress, and they have been shown many pathological manifestations strikingly visible. In front of all these problems this academic work aims to identify the generally conditions of conservation of all the reservoirs components of the Water Supply System of Natal. This academic work objectives to develop a recuperation plan for use in these reservoirs, in this academic work it was achieved all the survey of pathological manifestation existing in each reservoir. It was made with local visits, photographic recorders of all manifestations viii and realization of in loco tests. The other step consisted in a application of GDE/UnB metodolgy reformulated by Fonseca (2007). In the step of local visits in each reservoir it was evaluated carbonation depth, by spreading a phenolphthalein solution with 1% of concentration; evaluation of contamination of chlorides, by spreading silver nitrate solution with 1% of concentration, and evaluation of width cracks. After the conclusion of all the testings, it was established that all reservoir, studied in this academic work, have showed an advanced deteriorating condition. It´s presents prevalent pathological manifestations as unacceptable cracks, spots, efflorescence and reinforcement corrosion, and in some cases, chlorides contamination. After the conclusion of the testings and its concatenation it was able to implementing, using GDE/UnB methodology, the order of the restoration its service life and initial safety conditions