Monte Carlo simulation of streamflow of the Salt River, Arizona

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Evaluations of the impact of climate change (such as a greenhouse effect) upon water resources should represent both the expected change and the uncertainty in that expectation. Since water resources such as streamflow and reservoir levels depend on a variety of factors, each of which is subject to significant uncertainty, it is desirable to formulate methods of representing that uncertainty in the forcing factors and from this determine the uncertainty in the response variables of interest. We report here progress in the representation of the uncertainty in climate upon the uncertainty in the estimated hydrologic response.

CALCULATIONS OF INLET DISTORTION INDUCED COMPRESSOR FLOWFIELD INSTABILITY.

Calculations are presented predicting the onset of flow instability for a multistage low speed axial compressor operating in circumferentially distorted inlet flow. The most important feature of the model used is that it attempts to properly account for the fluid dynamic interaction between the spoiled and unspoiled sectors of the compressor. The calculations show that there is an approximate stability criterion, the annulus averaged slope of the compressor pressure rise characteristic equal to zero, that is valid whenever the dynamics of the compressor distorted flowfield can be considered independent of the compressor environment. This approximate criterion is used to investigate the relationship between the present model and the 'parallel compressor' model. Further calculations are performed to investigate cases of interest when the dynamics of the compressor flowfield are coupled to the environment. Resonant cases and cases when the distortion is unsteady are studied.

A three-dimensional tunnel model for calculation of train-induced ground vibration

The frequency range of interest for ground vibration from underground urban railways is approximately 20 to 100 Hz. For typical soils, the wavelengths of ground vibration in this frequency range are of the order of the spacing of train axles, the tunnel diameter and the distance from the tunnel to nearby building foundations. For accurate modelling, the interactions between these entities therefore have to be taken into account. This paper describes an analytical three-dimensional model for the dynamics of a deep underground railway tunnel of circular cross-section. The tunnel is conceptualised as an infinitely long, thin cylindrical shell surrounded by soil of infinite radial extent. The soil is modelled by means of the wave equations for an elastic continuum. The coupled problem is solved in the frequency domain by Fourier decomposition into ring modes circumferentially and a Fourier transform into the wavenumber domain longitudinally. Numerical results for the tunnel and soil responses due to a normal point load applied to the tunnel invert are presented. The tunnel model is suitable for use in combination with track models to calculate the ground vibration due to excitation by running trains and to evaluate different track configurations. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance of a Boundary Layer Ingesting (BLI) propulsion system

This paper presents an assessment of the performance of an embedded propulsion system in the presence of distortion associated with boundary layer ingestion. For fan pressure ratios of interest for civil transports, the benefits of boundary layer ingestion are shown to be very sensitive to the magnitude of fan and duct losses. The distortion transfer across the fan, basically the comparison of the stagnation pressure non-uniformity downstream of the fan to that upstream of the fan, has a major role in determining the impact of boundary layer ingestion on overall fuel burn. This, in turn, puts requirements on the fidelity with which one needs to assess the distortion transfer, and thus the type of models that need to be used in such assessment. For the three-dimensional distortions associated with fuselage boundary layers ingested into a subsonic diffusing inlet, it is found that boundary layer ingestion can provide decreases in fuel burn of several per cent. It is also shown that a promising avenue for mitigating the risks (aerodynamic as well as aeromechanical) in boundary layer ingestion is to mix out the flow before it reaches the engine face.

Construction of a BAC library for Chinese amphioxus Branchiostoma belcheri and identification of clones containing Amphi-pax genes

Amphioxus is a crucial organism for the study of vertebrate evolution. Although a genomic BAC library of Branchiostoma floridae has been constructed, we report here another BAC library construction of its distant relative species Branchiostoma belcheri. The amphioxus BAC library established in present study consists of 45,312 clones arrayed in one hundred and eighteen 384-well plates. The average insert fragment size was 120 kb estimated by Pulsed Field Gel Electrophoresis (PFGE) analysis of 318 randomly selected clones. The representation of the library is about 12 equivalent to the genome, allowing a 99.9995% probability of recovering any specific sequence of interest. We further screened the library with 4 single copied Amphi-Pax genes and identified total of 26 positive clones with average of 6.5 clones for each gene. The result indicates this library is well suited for many applications and should also serve as a useful complemental resource for the scientific community.

Addressing the cognitive and social influence inhibitors during the ideation stages of technology roadmapping workshops

Technology roadmapping workshops are essentially a social mechanism for exploring, creating, shaping and implementing ideas. The front-end of a roadmapping session is based on brainstorming in order to tap into the group's diverse knowledge. The aim of this idea stimulation activity is to capture and share as many perspectives as possible across the full scope of the area of interest. The premise to such group brainstorming is that the sharing and exchange of ideas leads to cognitive stimulation resulting in a greater overall group idea generation performance in terms of the number, variety and originality of ideas. However, it must be recognized that the ideation stage in a roadmapping workshop is a complex psychosocial phenomenon with underlying cognitive and social processes. Thus, there are downsides to group interactions and these must be addressed in order to fully benefit from the power of a roadmapping workshop. This paper will highlight and discuss the key cognitive and social inhibitors involved. These include: production blocking, evaluation apprehension, free riding/social loafing, low norm setting/matching. Facilitation actions and process adjustments to counter such negative factors will be identified so as to provide a psychosocial basis for improving the running of roadmapping workshops. © 2009 PICMET.

Study of the electric loading aspects of the BDFM using a lumped parameter thermal model

Details of a lumped parameter thermal model for studying thermal aspects of the frame size 180 nested loop rotor BDFM at the University of Cambridge are presented. Predictions of the model are verified against measured end winding and rotor bar temperatures that were measured with the machine excited from a DC source. The model is used to assess the thermal coupling between the stator windings and rotor heating. The thermal coupling between the stator windings is assessed by studying the difference of the steady state temperatures of the two stator end windings for different excitations. The rotor heating is assessed by studying the temperatures of regions of interest for different excitations.

An overview of Sequential Monte Carlo methods for parameter estimation in general state-space models

Nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models arise in numerous applications in control and signal processing. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, also known as Particle Filters, provide very good numerical approximations to the associated optimal state estimation problems. However, in many scenarios, the state-space model of interest also depends on unknown static parameters that need to be estimated from the data. In this context, standard SMC methods fail and it is necessary to rely on more sophisticated algorithms. The aim of this paper is to present a comprehensive overview of SMC methods that have been proposed to perform static parameter estimation in general state-space models. We discuss the advantages and limitations of these methods. © 2009 IFAC.

Geotechnical observations of construction OF A large shallow SCL tunnel in soft ground

The Fort Canning Tunnel is the first road tunnel in Singapore to be built using the sprayed concrete lining (SCL) method. The major technical challenge of this was to construct a 15m wide tunnel by mining in soft ground under a shallow overburden of 3m to 9m. This paper describes the geotechnical investigations and monitoring controls for the safe and progressive execution of the works, such as soil investigations, trial forepoling works, surface settlement monitoring, tunnel settlement monitoring, face movement monitoring, and the observational approach to construction. The monitored field data showed the volume loss to range from 0.4% to 2.1%, and the observed surface settlement trough was found to agree well with the theoretical Gaussian trough. Other observations made include substantial surface settlements induced by the stress relief at and ahead of the tunnel face in spite of the forepoling umbrella, and the higher volume losses associated with higher overburden. Tunnel face movements were observed during installation of forepoling. These observations are of interest to engineers planning future SCL tunnels in similar conditions.

A policy dimension required for technology roadmapping: Learning from the development of emerging wind energy industry in China

Innovation policies play an important role throughout the development process of emerging industries. However, existing policy studies view the process as a black-box, and fail to understand the policy-industry interactions through the process. This paper aims to develop an integrated technology roadmapping tool, in order to facilitate the better understanding of policy heterogeneity at the different stages of new energy industries in China. Through the case study of Chinese wind energy equipment manufacturing industry, this paper elaborates the dynamics between policy and the growth process of the industry. Further, this paper generalizes some Chinese specifics for the policy-industry interactions. As a practical output, this study proposes a policy-technology roadmapping framework that maps policy-market-product- technology interactions in response to the requirement for analyzing and planning the development of new industries in emerging economies (e.g. China). This paper will be of interest to policy makers, strategists, investors, and industrial experts. © 2011 IEEE.

Report on the occurrence of one subspecies of Scylla serrata (Forskal) in Cochin backwaters

The taxonomy of the mud crab, Scylla serrata has become a topic of interest. Alcock (1899) described this species from Indian waters. It was considered that under the genus Scylla, only one species, namely, Scylla serrata was valid. But Estampador (1949) revised the genus and reported the occurrence of four sorts, Scylla serrata, S. tranquebarica, S. oceanica and a variety S. serrata, var paramarnosain in Philippine waters. He established his claim based on the morphology such as colouration, relative length of chelae and also on the cytological events during gametogenesis. Serene (1952) pointed out that two distinct categories under this genus were demonstrable on the basis of colouration. But Stephenson & Campbell (1960) concluded them as only synonyms, but pointed out the need for further investigations.

Tracing the Origins of Hakka and Chaoshanese by Mitochondrial DNA Analysis

Hakka and Chaoshanese are two unique Han populations residing in southern China but with northern Han (NH) cultural traditions and linguistic influences. Although most of historical records indicate that both populations migrated from northern China in the last two thousand years, no consensus on their origins has been reached so far. To shed more light on the origins of Hakka and Chaoshanese, mitochondrial DNAs (mtDNAs) of 170 Hakka from Meizhou and 102 Chaoshanese from Chaoshan area, Guangdong Province, were analyzed. Our results show that some southern Chinese predominant haplogroups, e.g. B, F, and M7, have relatively high frequencies in both populations. Although median network analyses show that Hakka/Chaoshanese share some haplotypes with NH, interpopulation comparison reveals that both populations show closer affinity with southern Han (SH) populations than with NH. In consideration of previous results from nuclear gene (including Y chromosome) research, it is likely that matrilineal landscapes of both Hakka and Chaoshanese have largely been shaped by the local people during their migration southward and/or later colonization in southern China, and factors such as cultural assimilation, patrilocality, and even sex-bias in the immigrants might have played important roles during the process. Am J Phys Anthropol 141:124-130, 2010. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Modular risk modeling and management of water infrastructure disaster incidents

Water supply and wastewater control are critical elements of society's infrastructure. The objective of this study will be to provide a generic risk assessment tool to provide municipalities and the nation as a whole with a quantifiable assessment of their vulnerability to water infrastructure threats. The approach will prioritize countermeasures and identify where research and development is required to further minimize risk. This paper outlines the current context, primary concerns and state-of-the art in critical infrastructure risk management for the water sector and proposes a novel approach to resolve existing questions in the field. The proposed approach is based on a modular framework that derives a quantitative risk index for varied domains of interest. The approach methodology is scaleable and based on formal definitions of event probability and severity. The framework is equally applicable to natural and human-induced hazard types and can be used for analysis of compound risk events.

Coarse-level object recognition using interlevel products of complex wavelets

This paper introduces the Interlevel Product (ILP) which is a transform based upon the Dual-Tree Complex Wavelet. Coefficients of the ILP have complex values whose magnitudes indicate the amplitude of multilevel features, and whose phases indicate the nature of these features (e.g. ridges vs. edges). In particular, the phases of ILP coefficients are approximately invariant to small shifts in the original images. We accordingly introduce this transform as a solution to coarse scale template matching, where alignment concerns between decimation of a target and decimation of a larger search image can be mitigated, and computational efficiency can be maintained. Furthermore, template matching with ILP coefficients can provide several intuitive "near-matches" that may be of interest in image retrieval applications. © 2005 IEEE.

A perspective of the carp industry in the Philippines

Fish farmers in Laguna de Bay are facing conflict of the use of the lake which is being tapped as freshwater source for domestic use. The article documents the perspectives of some fish farmers and researchers on the development of carp aquaculture industry in the lake. According to carp farmers and researchers, the industry is profitable; however, marketing, post harvest and processing strategies remain poor. In this regard, Southeast Asian Fisheries Development Center, Aquaculture Department (SEAFDEC/AQD) should be the frontline ally of carp growers since SEAFDEC/AQD developed the technology for lake culture.