Data fusion with computational intelligence techniques: a case study of fuzzy inference for terrain assessment

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Harvest control rule vs optimal harvesting of an age-structured population: The case of the Ibero-Atlantic Sardine Fishery

Research Masters

Data size sufficiency analyses of haplotype inference algortihms

We present experimental and theoretical analyses of data requirements for haplotype inference algorithms. Our experiments include a broad range of problem sizes under two standard models of tree distribution and were designed to yield statistically robust results despite the size of the sample space. Our results validate Gusfield's conjecture that a population size of n log n is required to give (with high probability) sufficient information to deduce the n haplotypes and their complete evolutionary history. The experimental results inspired our experimental finding with theoretical bounds on the population size. We also analyze the population size required to deduce some fixed fraction of the evolutionary history of a set of n haplotypes and establish linear bounds on the required sample size. These linear bounds are also shown theoretically.

Multimodel inference and multimodel averaging in empirical modeling of occupational exposure levels.

Empirical modeling of exposure levels has been popular for identifying exposure determinants in occupational hygiene. Traditional data-driven methods used to choose a model on which to base inferences have typically not accounted for the uncertainty linked to the process of selecting the final model. Several new approaches propose making statistical inferences from a set of plausible models rather than from a single model regarded as 'best'. This paper introduces the multimodel averaging approach described in the monograph by Burnham and Anderson. In their approach, a set of plausible models are defined a priori by taking into account the sample size and previous knowledge of variables influent on exposure levels. The Akaike information criterion is then calculated to evaluate the relative support of the data for each model, expressed as Akaike weight, to be interpreted as the probability of the model being the best approximating model given the model set. The model weights can then be used to rank models, quantify the evidence favoring one over another, perform multimodel prediction, estimate the relative influence of the potential predictors and estimate multimodel-averaged effects of determinants. The whole approach is illustrated with the analysis of a data set of 1500 volatile organic compound exposure levels collected by the Institute for work and health (Lausanne, Switzerland) over 20 years, each concentration having been divided by the relevant Swiss occupational exposure limit and log-transformed before analysis. Multimodel inference represents a promising procedure for modeling exposure levels that incorporates the notion that several models can be supported by the data and permits to evaluate to a certain extent model selection uncertainty, which is seldom mentioned in current practice.

Evolution of decision-making and learning under fluctuating social environments

The capacity to learn to associate sensory perceptions with appropriate motor actions underlies the success of many animal species, from insects to humans. The evolutionary significance of learning has long been a subject of interest for evolutionary biologists who emphasize the bene¬fit yielded by learning under changing environmental conditions, where it is required to flexibly switch from one behavior to another. However, two unsolved questions are particularly impor¬tant for improving our knowledge of the evolutionary advantages provided by learning, and are addressed in the present work. First, because it is possible to learn the wrong behavior when a task is too complex, the learning rules and their underlying psychological characteristics that generate truly adaptive behavior must be identified with greater precision, and must be linked to the specific ecological problems faced by each species. A framework for predicting behavior from the definition of a learning rule is developed here. Learning rules capture cognitive features such as the tendency to explore, or the ability to infer rewards associated to unchosen actions. It is shown that these features interact in a non-intuitive way to generate adaptive behavior in social interactions where individuals affect each other's fitness. Such behavioral predictions are used in an evolutionary model to demonstrate that, surprisingly, simple trial-and-error learn¬ing is not always outcompeted by more computationally demanding inference-based learning, when population members interact in pairwise social interactions. A second question in the evolution of learning is its link with and relative advantage compared to other simpler forms of phenotypic plasticity. After providing a conceptual clarification on the distinction between genetically determined vs. learned responses to environmental stimuli, a new factor in the evo¬lution of learning is proposed: environmental complexity. A simple mathematical model shows that a measure of environmental complexity, the number of possible stimuli in one's environ¬ment, is critical for the evolution of learning. In conclusion, this work opens roads for modeling interactions between evolving species and their environment in order to predict how natural se¬lection shapes animals' cognitive abilities. - La capacité d'apprendre à associer des sensations perceptives à des actions motrices appropriées est sous-jacente au succès évolutif de nombreuses espèces, depuis les insectes jusqu'aux êtres hu¬mains. L'importance évolutive de l'apprentissage est depuis longtemps un sujet d'intérêt pour les biologistes de l'évolution, et ces derniers mettent l'accent sur le bénéfice de l'apprentissage lorsque les conditions environnementales sont changeantes, car dans ce cas il est nécessaire de passer de manière flexible d'un comportement à l'autre. Cependant, deux questions non résolues sont importantes afin d'améliorer notre savoir quant aux avantages évolutifs procurés par l'apprentissage. Premièrement, puisqu'il est possible d'apprendre un comportement incorrect quand une tâche est trop complexe, les règles d'apprentissage qui permettent d'atteindre un com¬portement réellement adaptatif doivent être identifiées avec une plus grande précision, et doivent être mises en relation avec les problèmes écologiques spécifiques rencontrés par chaque espèce. Un cadre théorique ayant pour but de prédire le comportement à partir de la définition d'une règle d'apprentissage est développé ici. Il est démontré que les caractéristiques cognitives, telles que la tendance à explorer ou la capacité d'inférer les récompenses liées à des actions non ex¬périmentées, interagissent de manière non-intuitive dans les interactions sociales pour produire des comportements adaptatifs. Ces prédictions comportementales sont utilisées dans un modèle évolutif afin de démontrer que, de manière surprenante, l'apprentissage simple par essai-et-erreur n'est pas toujours battu par l'apprentissage basé sur l'inférence qui est pourtant plus exigeant en puissance de calcul, lorsque les membres d'une population interagissent socialement par pair. Une deuxième question quant à l'évolution de l'apprentissage concerne son lien et son avantage relatif vis-à-vis d'autres formes plus simples de plasticité phénotypique. Après avoir clarifié la distinction entre réponses aux stimuli génétiquement déterminées ou apprises, un nouveau fac¬teur favorisant l'évolution de l'apprentissage est proposé : la complexité environnementale. Un modèle mathématique permet de montrer qu'une mesure de la complexité environnementale - le nombre de stimuli rencontrés dans l'environnement - a un rôle fondamental pour l'évolution de l'apprentissage. En conclusion, ce travail ouvre de nombreuses perspectives quant à la mo¬délisation des interactions entre les espèces en évolution et leur environnement, dans le but de comprendre comment la sélection naturelle façonne les capacités cognitives des animaux.

Influence of altitude, latitude and season of collection (Bergmann's Rule) on the dimensions of Lutzomyia intermedia (Lutz & Neiva, 1912) (diptera, psychodidae, phlebotominae)

The influence of altitude and latitude on some structure sizes of Lutzomyia intermedia was noted; several structures of insects collected in higher localities were greater, according to Bergmann's rule. This influence was more remarkable in two localities of the State of Espírito Santo, probably due to greater differences in altitude. Comparing insects from different latitudes, more differences were noted in comparisons of insects from low altitude localities than in those of material from higher altitudes. The small number of differences between insects collected in July and in December does not indicate a defined influence of season and temperature on the size of adults. The possible epidemiological implications of these variations are discussed.

Improving the performance of positive selection inference by filtering unreliable alignment regions.

Errors in the inferred multiple sequence alignment may lead to false prediction of positive selection. Recently, methods for detecting unreliable alignment regions were developed and were shown to accurately identify incorrectly aligned regions. While removing unreliable alignment regions is expected to increase the accuracy of positive selection inference, such filtering may also significantly decrease the power of the test, as positively selected regions are fast evolving, and those same regions are often those that are difficult to align. Here, we used realistic simulations that mimic sequence evolution of HIV-1 genes to test the hypothesis that the performance of positive selection inference using codon models can be improved by removing unreliable alignment regions. Our study shows that the benefit of removing unreliable regions exceeds the loss of power due to the removal of some of the true positively selected sites.

Quantitative genetic modeling and inference in the presence of nonignorable missing data.

Natural selection is typically exerted at some specific life stages. If natural selection takes place before a trait can be measured, using conventional models can cause wrong inference about population parameters. When the missing data process relates to the trait of interest, a valid inference requires explicit modeling of the missing process. We propose a joint modeling approach, a shared parameter model, to account for nonrandom missing data. It consists of an animal model for the phenotypic data and a logistic model for the missing process, linked by the additive genetic effects. A Bayesian approach is taken and inference is made using integrated nested Laplace approximations. From a simulation study we find that wrongly assuming that missing data are missing at random can result in severely biased estimates of additive genetic variance. Using real data from a wild population of Swiss barn owls Tyto alba, our model indicates that the missing individuals would display large black spots; and we conclude that genes affecting this trait are already under selection before it is expressed. Our model is a tool to correctly estimate the magnitude of both natural selection and additive genetic variance.

Application of compositional data analysis to geochemical data of marine sediments

In an earlier investigation (Burger et al., 2000) five sediment cores near the RodriguesTriple Junction in the Indian Ocean were studied applying classical statistical methods(fuzzy c-means clustering, linear mixing model, principal component analysis) for theextraction of endmembers and evaluating the spatial and temporal variation ofgeochemical signals. Three main factors of sedimentation were expected by the marinegeologists: a volcano-genetic, a hydro-hydrothermal and an ultra-basic factor. Thedisplay of fuzzy membership values and/or factor scores versus depth providedconsistent results for two factors only; the ultra-basic component could not beidentified. The reason for this may be that only traditional statistical methods wereapplied, i.e. the untransformed components were used and the cosine-theta coefficient assimilarity measure.During the last decade considerable progress in compositional data analysis was madeand many case studies were published using new tools for exploratory analysis of thesedata. Therefore it makes sense to check if the application of suitable data transformations,reduction of the D-part simplex to two or three factors and visualinterpretation of the factor scores would lead to a revision of earlier results and toanswers to open questions . In this paper we follow the lines of a paper of R. Tolosana-Delgado et al. (2005) starting with a problem-oriented interpretation of the biplotscattergram, extracting compositional factors, ilr-transformation of the components andvisualization of the factor scores in a spatial context: The compositional factors will beplotted versus depth (time) of the core samples in order to facilitate the identification ofthe expected sources of the sedimentary process.Kew words: compositional data analysis, biplot, deep sea sediments

Dynamic graphics of parametrically linked multivariate methods used in compositional data analysis

Many multivariate methods that are apparently distinct can be linked by introducing oneor more parameters in their definition. Methods that can be linked in this way arecorrespondence analysis, unweighted or weighted logratio analysis (the latter alsoknown as "spectral mapping"), nonsymmetric correspondence analysis, principalcomponent analysis (with and without logarithmic transformation of the data) andmultidimensional scaling. In this presentation I will show how several of thesemethods, which are frequently used in compositional data analysis, may be linkedthrough parametrizations such as power transformations, linear transformations andconvex linear combinations. Since the methods of interest here all lead to visual mapsof data, a "movie" can be made where where the linking parameter is allowed to vary insmall steps: the results are recalculated "frame by frame" and one can see the smoothchange from one method to another. Several of these "movies" will be shown, giving adeeper insight into the similarities and differences between these methods

A tale of two logits, compositional data analysis and zero observations

The application of compositional data analysis through log ratio trans-formations corresponds to a multinomial logit model for the shares themselves.This model is characterized by the property of Independence of Irrelevant Alter-natives (IIA). IIA states that the odds ratio in this case the ratio of shares is invariant to the addition or deletion of outcomes to the problem. It is exactlythis invariance of the ratio that underlies the commonly used zero replacementprocedure in compositional data analysis. In this paper we investigate using thenested logit model that does not embody IIA and an associated zero replacementprocedure and compare its performance with that of the more usual approach ofusing the multinomial logit model. Our comparisons exploit a data set that com-bines voting data by electoral division with corresponding census data for eachdivision for the 2001 Federal election in Australia

Compositional data analysis of archaeological glass: problems and possible solutions

Presentation in CODAWORK'03, session 4: Applications to archeometry

Exploration of geological variability and possible processes through the use of compositional data analysis: an example using scottish metamorphosed

Developments in the statistical analysis of compositional data over the last twodecades have made possible a much deeper exploration of the nature of variability,and the possible processes associated with compositional data sets from manydisciplines. In this paper we concentrate on geochemical data sets. First we explainhow hypotheses of compositional variability may be formulated within the naturalsample space, the unit simplex, including useful hypotheses of subcompositionaldiscrimination and specific perturbational change. Then we develop through standardmethodology, such as generalised likelihood ratio tests, statistical tools to allow thesystematic investigation of a complete lattice of such hypotheses. Some of these tests are simple adaptations of existing multivariate tests but others require specialconstruction. We comment on the use of graphical methods in compositional dataanalysis and on the ordination of specimens. The recent development of the conceptof compositional processes is then explained together with the necessary tools for astaying- in-the-simplex approach, namely compositional singular value decompositions. All these statistical techniques are illustrated for a substantial compositional data set, consisting of 209 major-oxide and rare-element compositions of metamorphosed limestones from the Northeast and Central Highlands of Scotland.Finally we point out a number of unresolved problems in the statistical analysis ofcompositional processes