Economics of new oncology drug development.

PURPOSE: Review existing studies and provide new results on the development, regulatory, and market aspects of new oncology drug development. METHODS: We utilized data from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), company surveys, and publicly available commercial business intelligence databases on new oncology drugs approved in the United States and on investigational oncology drugs to estimate average development and regulatory approval times, clinical approval success rates, first-in-class status, and global market diffusion. RESULTS: We found that approved new oncology drugs to have a disproportionately high share of FDA priority review ratings, of orphan drug designations at approval, and of drugs that were granted inclusion in at least one of the FDA's expedited access programs. US regulatory approval times were shorter, on average, for oncology drugs (0.5 years), but US clinical development times were longer on average (1.5 years). Clinical approval success rates were similar for oncology and other drugs, but proportionately more of the oncology failures reached expensive late-stage clinical testing before being abandoned. In relation to other drugs, new oncology drug approvals were more often first-in-class and diffused more widely across important international markets. CONCLUSION: The market success of oncology drugs has induced a substantial amount of investment in oncology drug development in the last decade or so. However, given the great need for further progress, the extent to which efforts to develop new oncology drugs will grow depends on future public-sector investment in basic research, developments in translational medicine, and regulatory reforms that advance drug-development science.

Carbon mitigation costs for the commercial building sector: Discrete-continuous choice analysis of multifuel energy demand

We estimate a carbon mitigation cost curve for the U.S. commercial sector based on econometric estimation of the responsiveness of fuel demand and equipment choices to energy price changes. The model econometrically estimates fuel demand conditional on fuel choice, which is characterized by a multinomial logit model. Separate estimation of end uses (e.g., heating, cooking) using the U.S. Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey allows for exceptionally detailed estimation of price responsiveness disaggregated by end use and fuel type. We then construct aggregate long-run elasticities, by fuel type, through a series of simulations; own-price elasticities range from -0.9 for district heat services to -2.9 for fuel oil. The simulations form the basis of a marginal cost curve for carbon mitigation, which suggests that a price of $20 per ton of carbon would result in an 8% reduction in commercial carbon emissions, and a price of $100 per ton would result in a 28% reduction. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological homogenization of urban USA

A visually apparent but scientifically untested outcome of land-use change is homogenization across urban areas, where neighborhoods in different parts of the country have similar patterns of roads, residential lots, commercial areas, and aquatic features. We hypothesize that this homogenization extends to ecological structure and also to ecosystem functions such as carbon dynamics and microclimate, with continental-scale implications. Further, we suggest that understanding urban homogenization will provide the basis for understanding the impacts of urban land-use change from local to continental scales. Here, we show how multi-scale, multidisciplinary datasets from six metropolitan areas that cover the major climatic regions of the US (Phoenix, AZ; Miami, FL; Baltimore, MD; Boston, MA; Minneapolis-St Paul, MN; and Los Angeles, CA) can be used to determine how household and neighborhood characteristics correlate with land-management practices, land-cover composition, and landscape structure and ecosystem functions at local, regional, and continental scales. © The Ecological Society of America.

Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital.

Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions.

Biological and demographic response of aphids Nasonovia ribisnigri (Mosley) and Aulacorthum solani (Kaltenbach) (Hemiptera : Aphididae) on lettuce commercial cultivars under laboratory conditions

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Biological and demographic response of aphids Nasonovia ribisnigri (Mosley) and Aulacorthum solani (Kaltenbach) (Hemiptera : Aphididae) on lettuce commercial cultivars under laboratory conditions

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Giving credit where it's due

Discusses the entitlement to occupation rent where one party to a relationship no longer lives in the matrimonial or family home in which he/she has an interest and a right of occupation. Describes the case law illustrating that forceful exclusion of the non-occupying party is not a prerequisite to entitlement to an occupation rent. Considers the calculation of the parties' respective credits where the occupying party has made mortgage repayments since the separation and the other is entitled to an occupation rent.

Investigation of the permeation of model formulations and a commercial ibuprofen formulation in Carbosil® and human skin using ATR-FTIR and multivariate spectral analysis

The purpose of the present study was to use attenuated total reflectance-Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR) and target factor analysis (TFA) to investigate the permeation of model drugs and formulation components through Carbosil® membrane and human skin. Diffusion studies of saturated solutions in 50:50 water/ethanol of methyl paraben (MP), ibuprofen (IBU) and caffeine (CF) were performed on Carbosil® membrane. The spectroscopic data were analysed by target factor analysis, and evolution profiles of the signal for each component (i.e. the drug, water, ethanol and membrane) over time were obtained. Results showed that the data were successfully deconvoluted as correlations between factors from the data and reference spectra of the components, were above 0.8 in all cases. Good reproducibility over three runs for the evolution profiles was obtained. From the evolution profiles it was observed that water diffused better through the Carbosil® membrane than ethanol, confirming the hydrophilic properties of the Carbosil® membrane used. IBU diffused slower compared with MP and CF. The evolution profile of CF was very similar to that of water, probably because of the high solubility of CF in water, indicating that both compounds are diffusing concurrently. The second part of the work involved a study of the evolution profiles of the components of a commercial topical gel containing 5% (w/w) of ibuprofen as it permeated through human skin. Although the system was much more complex, data were still successfully deconvoluted and the different components of the formulation identified except for benzyl alcohol which might be attributed to the low concentrations of benzyl alcohol used in topical formulations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sovereign rescheduling probabilities in emerging markets: a comparison with credit rating agencies' ratings

This study estimates default probabilities of 124 emerging countries from 1981 to 2002 as a function of a set of macroeconomic and political variables. The estimated probabilities are then compared with the default rates implied by sovereign credit ratings of three major international credit rating agencies (CRAs) – Moody's Investor's Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings. Sovereign debt default probabilities are used by investors in pricing sovereign bonds and loans as well as in determining country risk exposure. The study finds that CRAs usually underestimate the risk of sovereign debt as the sovereign credit ratings from rating agencies are usually too optimistic.

Trade credit linkages along the supply chain: evidence for the Italian textile sector

We examine the trade credit linkages among firms within a supply chain to reckon the effect of such linkages on the propagation of liquidity shocks from downstream to upstream firms. We choose a sample appropriate for this task, consisting of a large data set of Italian firms from the textile industry, a well known example of a comprehensive manufacturing cluster featuring a large number of small and specialized firms at each level of the supply chain. The results of the analysis indicate that the level of trade credit that firms provide to their suppliers is positively related to the level of trade credit granted to their clients: when the level of trade credit granted to clients divided by sales goes up by 1, the level of trade credit provided to suppliers divided by cost-of goods-sold goes up by an amount that varies between 0,22 and 0,52. Since all firms along the chain are linked by trade credit relationships, an increase in the level of trade credit granted by wholesalers generates a liquidity cascade throughout the chain. We designate the overall increase in the level of trade credit among all firms in the chain as a result of a unitary impulse in the level of trade credit granted by wholesalers as the multiplier effect of trade credit for the industry chain. We estimate such multiplier to vary between 1.28 and 2.04. We also investigate the effect of final demand on the level of trade credit sourced by firms at various levels of the chain and, in particular, whether such effect is amplified for firms further up in the chain as a result of liquidity propagation via trade credit linkages. We uncover evidence of such amplification when the links of liquidity transmission along the chain are individually modeled and estimated. An unitary increase in wholesalers’ sales is found to produce an effect on trade payables among firms at the top of the chain (i.e., Preparers and Spinners) that is more than twice as big as the corresponding effect among firms at the bottom of the chain (i.e., Wholesalers).

Investigation of the impact of simulated commercial centrifugation and microfiltration conditions on levels of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in milk

The potential for physical removal of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (M. paratuberculosis) from milk by centrifugation and microfiltration was investigated by simulating commercial processing conditions in the laboratory by means of a microcentrifuge and syringe filters, respectively. Results indicated that both centrifugation of preheated milk (60 degrees C) at 7000 x g for 10 s, and microfiltration through a filter of pore size 1.2 mu m, were capable of removing up to 95-99.9% of M. paratuberculosis cells from spiked whole milk and Middlebrook 7H9 broth suspensions, respectively. Centrifugation and microfiltration may therefore have potential application within the dairy industry as pretreatments to reduce M. paratuberculosis contamination of raw milk.

Inactivation of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in milk during commercial pasteurisation

Four studies have been published relating to the inactivation of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) by commercial HTST pasteurization. Three of these were large surveys of commercially pasteurized milk at processing/retail level in the UK and Ontario, Canada, and the fourth a pasteurization study involving naturally infected milk and commercial-scale pasteurizing plant. Evidence that Map is capable of surviving commercial pasteurization was obtained in two of the studies: viable Map was cultured from 50 ml aliquots of commercially pasteurized milk after decontamination with 0.75% cetylpyridinium chloride for 5 h and then culture on Herrold's egg-yolk medium without antibiotics. In both studies culture did not commence until 24-72 h post-pasteurization and samples were stored at 4 degrees C in the interim period. In the other two milk surveys smaller volumes of milk were tested (1-5 ml and 15 ml) and no firm evidence of surviving Map was obtained. The three milk surveys differed in other respects - chemical decontamination, culture media used and use of antibiotics. Recent findings suggest that sub-lethally heat-injured Map in pasteurized milk have the potential to recover viability if stored at 4 degrees C for 48 h between heating and testing.