Parameterizing Unconditional Skewness in Models for Financial Time Series

In this paper we consider the third-moment structure of a class of time series models. It is often argued that the marginal distribution of financial time series such as returns is skewed. Therefore it is of importance to know what properties a model should possess if it is to accommodate unconditional skewness. We consider modeling the unconditional mean and variance using models that respond nonlinearly or asymmetrically to shocks. We investigate the implications of these models on the third-moment structure of the marginal distribution as well as conditions under which the unconditional distribution exhibits skewness and nonzero third-order autocovariance structure. In this respect, an asymmetric or nonlinear specification of the conditional mean is found to be of greater importance than the properties of the conditional variance. Several examples are discussed and, whenever possible, explicit analytical expressions provided for all third-order moments and cross-moments. Finally, we introduce a new tool, the shock impact curve, for investigating the impact of shocks on the conditional mean squared error of return series.

New tools for management of phosphine resistance

Phosphine is the primary fumigant used to protect the majority of the world' s grain and a variety of other stored commodities from insect pests. Phosphine is playing an increasingly important role in the protection of commodities for two primary reasons. Firstly, use of the alternative fumigant, methyl bromide, has been sharply curtailed and is tightly regulated due to its role in ozone depletion, and secondly, consumers are becoming increasingly intolerant of contact pesticides. Niche alternatives to phosphine exist, but they suffer from a range of factors that limit their use, including: 1) Limited commercial adoption due to expense or slow mode of action; 2) Poor efficacy due to low toxicity, rapid sorption, limited volatility or high density; 3) Public health concerns due to toxicity to handlers or nearby residents, as well as risk of explosion; 4) Poor consumer acceptance due to toxic residues or smell. These same factors limit the prospects of quickly identifying and deploying a new fumigant. Given that resistance toward phosphine is increasing among insect pests, improved monitoring and management of resistance is a priority. Knowledge of the mode of action of phosphine as well as the mechanisms of resistance may also greatly reduce the effort and expense of identifying synergists or novel replacement compounds.

Gene interactions constrain the course of evolution of phosphine resistance in the lesser grain borer, Rhyzopertha dominica

Phosphine, a widely used fumigant for the protection of stored grain from insect pests, kills organisms indirectly by inducing oxidative stress. High levels of heritable resistance to phosphine in the insect pest of stored grain, Rhyzopertha dominica have been detected in Asia, Australia and South America. In order to understand the evolution of phosphine resistance and to isolate the responsible genes, we have undertaken genetic linkage analysis of fully sensitive (QRD14), moderately resistant (QRD369) and highly resistant (QRD569) strains of R. dominica collected in Australia. We previously determined that two loci, rph1 and rph2, confer high-level resistance on strain QRD569, which was collected in 1997. We have now confirmed that rph1 is responsible for the moderate resistance of strain QRD369, which was collected in 1990, and is shared with a highly resistant strain from the same geographical region, QRD569. In contrast, rph2 by itself confers only very weak resistance, either as a heterozygote or as a homozygote and was not discovered in the field until weak resistance (probably due to rph1) had become ubiquitous. Thus, high-level resistance against phosphine has evolved via stepwise acquisition of resistance alleles, first at rph1 and thereafter at rph2. The semi-dominance of rph2 together with the synergistic interaction between rph1 and rph2 would have led to rapid selection for homozygosity. A lack of visible fitness cost associated with alleles at either locus suggests that the resistance phenotype will persist in the field.

Drag på parnassen. Två sextiotalsstudier. : Del I: Medelklass med mänskligt ansikte. Medelklassradikalism i fyra romaner av Christer Kihlman, Jarl Sjöblom, Marianne Alopaeus och Ulla-Lena Lundberg. Del II: Modernistdebatten. Sak, person och fält i en finlandssvensk litteraturdebatt år 1965.

The objective of my dissertation Pull (or Draught, or Moves) at the Parnassus , is to provide a deeper understanding of Nordic Middle Class radicalism of the 1960 s as featured in Finland-Swedish literature. My approach is cultural materialist in a broad sense; social class is regarded a crucial aspect of the contents and contexts of the novels and literary discussions explored. In the first volume, Middle Class With A Human Face , novels by Christer Kihlman, Jarl Sjöblom, Marianne Alopaeus, and Ulla-Lena Lundberg, respectively, are read from the points of view of place, emotion, and power. The term "cryptotope" is used to designate the hidden places found to play an important role in all of these four narratives. Also, the "chronotope of the provincial small town", described by Mikhail Bakhtin in 1938, is exemplified in Kihlman s satirical novel, as is the chronotope of of war (Algeria, Vietnam) in those of Alopaeus and Lundberg s. All the four novels signal changes in the way general "scripts of emotions", e.g. jealousy, are handled and described. The power relations in the novels are also read, with reference to Michel Foucault. As the protagonists in two of them work as journalists, a critical discussion about media and Bourgeois hegemony is found; the term "repressive legitimation" is created to grasp these patterns of manipulation. The Modernist Debate , part II of the study, concerns a literary discussion between mainly Finland-Swedish authors and critics. Essayist Johannes Salminen (40) provided much of the fuel for the debate in 1963, questioning the relevance to contemporary life of the Finland-Swedish modernist tradition of the 1910 s and 1920 s. In 1965, a group of younger authors and critics, including poet Claes Andersson (28), followed up this critique in a debate taking place mainly in the newspaper Vasabladet. Poets Rabbe Enckell (62), Bo Carpelan (39) and others defended a timeless poetry. This debate is contextualized and the changing literary field is analyzed using concepts provided by sociologist Pierre Bourdieu. In the thesis, the historical moment of Middle Class radicalism with a human face is regarded a temporary luxury that new social groups could afford themselves, as long as they were knocking over the statues and symbols of the Old Bourgeoisie. This is not to say that all components of the Sixties strategy have lost their power. Some of them have survived and even grown, others remain latent in the gene bank of utopias, waiting for new moments of change.

A sequential analysis of "nú" and "núna" in Icelandic conversation

This thesis is an empirical study of how two words in Icelandic, "nú" and "núna", are used in contemporary Icelandic conversation. My aims in this study are, first, to explain the differences between the temporal functions of "nú" and "núna", and, second, to describe the non-temporal functions of "nú". In the analysis, a focus is placed on comparing the sequential placement of the two words, on their syntactical distribution, and on their prosodic realization. The empirical data comprise 14 hours and 11 minutes of naturally occurring conversation recorded between 1996 and 2003. The selected conversations represent a wide range of interactional contexts including informal dinner parties, institutional and non-institutional telephone conversations, radio programs for teenagers, phone-in programs, and, finally, a political debate on television. The theoretical and methodological framework is interactional linguistics, which can be described as linguistically oriented conversation analysis (CA). A comparison of "nú" and "núna" shows that the two words have different syntactic distributions. "Nú" has a clear tendency to occur in the front field, before the finite verb, while "núna" typically occurs in the end field, after the object. It is argued that this syntactic difference reflects a functional difference between "nú" and "núna". A sequential analysis of "núna" shows that the word refers to an unspecified period of time which includes the utterance time as well as some time in the past and in the future. This temporal relation is referred to as reference time. "Nú", by contrast, is mainly used in three different environments: a) in temporal comparisons, 2) in transitions, and 3) when the speaker is taking an affective stance. The non-temporal functions of "nú" are divided into three categories: a) "nú" as a tone particle, 2) "nú" as an utterance particle, and 3) "nú" as a dialogue particle. "Nú" as a tone particle is syntactically integrated and can occur in two syntactic positions: pre-verbally and post-verbally. I argue that these instances are employed in utterances in which a speaker is foregrounding information or marking it as particularly important. The study shows that, although these instances are typically prosodically non-prominent and unstressed, they are in some cases delivered with stress and with a higher pitch than the surrounding talk. "Nú" as an utterance particle occurs turn-initially and is syntactically non-integrated. By using "nú", speakers show continuity between turns and link new turns to prior ones. These instances initiate either continuations by the same speaker or new turns after speaker shifts. "Nú" as a dialogue particle occurs as a turn of its own. The study shows that these instances register informings in prior turns as unexpected or as a departure from the normal state of affairs. "Nú" as a dialogue particle is often delivered with a prolonged vowel and a recognizable intonation contour. A comparative sequential and prosodic analysis shows that in these cases there is a correlation between the function of "nú" and the intonation contour by which it is delivered. Finally, I argue that despite the many functions of "nú", all the instances can be said to have a common denominator, which is to display attention towards the present moment and the utterances which are produced prior or after the production of "nú". Instead of anchoring the utterances in external time or reference time, these instances position the utterance in discourse internal time, or discourse time.

Major practicum as a learning site for exercise science professionals: A pilot study

Exercise science is now an integral part of the allied health framework in Australia and graduates from accredited programmes are equipped with skills recognised as being important in the prevention and management of lifestyle-related diseases. This pilot study sought to determine the experiences of 11 final-year exercise science students in their major practicum and identify skills learned and developed while on placement. Analysis of the interview data established that the students worked with clients from a broad range of sociocultural and socioeconomic backgrounds, both within and between practicum sites; the students’ experiences and their preparedness to engage with clients from different backgrounds varied as a result. Although the students generally reported being technically skilled for their major placement, many reported being underprepared to deal with people from different backgrounds. However, all participants held that their interpersonal skills greatly improved in response to their placement and several remarked that they developed their problem-solving skills through watching and assisting their supervisors work with clients. The present study confirms the practicum as a critical learning site for improving communication and problem-solving skills with exercise science and exercise physiology students.

Optimising indoor phosphine fumigation of paddy rice bag-stacks under sheeting for control of resistant insects

Three indoor, sheeted bag-stack fumigations of paddy rice using aluminium phosphide were undertaken in Guangdong Province, southern China. We measured the effect of two types of sheeting (polyvinylchloride [PVC] or polyethylene [PE]) and two types of floor sealing (clips or fixing into a slot with a rubber pipe) on phosphine concentration and retention. The aim was to test the feasibility of retaining fumigant at a sufficient concentration for long enough to control known resistant insect pests. Each stack was pressure tested and phosphine concentrations measured daily during the fumigation. Cages of test insects in culture medium, including resistant and susceptible strains, were placed inside each stack and could be observed through the clear sheeting. Highest concentrations for the longest period were obtained in a PVC-covered stack that included a ground sheet and wall sheets sealed to the floor with rubber pipes. A similar PVC-covered stack sealed to the floor with clips instead of pipe did not retain gas as efficiently and required re-dosing. A PE-covered stack, with no ground sheet but also with wall sheets sealed to the floor with pipe, produced an acceptable fumigation. Susceptible Rhyzopertha dominica were controlled in 2 days and the most resistant strain in 15 days. Resistant Cryptolestes ferrugineus survived until day 21. The paddy was still free of insect infestation 7 months later when the bag-stack was opened to mill the rice. Pressure half-lives correlated with gas concentration and retention. Sorption appeared to be a major limiting factor, reducing potential fumigant dosage by about 50%. The trials demonstrated the feasibility of sealing bag-stacks to a standard high enough to control all known resistant strains.

Application of Maclaurin Series in Structural Analysis

In the simple theory of flexure of beams, the slope, bending moment, shearing force, load and other quantities are functions of a derivative of y with respect to x. It is shown that the elastic curve of a transversely loaded beam can be represented by the Maclaurin series. Substitution of the values of the derivatives gives a direct solution of beam problems. In this paper the method is applied to derive the Theorem or three moments and slope deflection equations. The method is extended to the solution of a rigid portal frame. Finally the method is applied to deduce results on which the moment distribution method of analyzing rigid frames is based.

Visual completion in an illusory figure

The visual systems of humans and animals represent physical reality in a modified way, depending on the specific demands that the species in question has for survival. The ability to perceive visual illusions is found in independently evolved visual systems, from honeybees to humans. In humans, the ability emerges early, at the age of four months. Thus the perception of illusion is likely to reflect visual processes of fundamental importance for object perception in natural vision. The experiments reported in this thesis employed various modifications of the Kanizsa triangle, a drawn configuration composed of three black disks with missing sectors on a white background. The sectors appear to form the tips of a triangle. The visual system completes the physically empty area between the disks, generally called inducers, with giving the perception of an illusory triangle. The illusory triangle consists of an illusory surface bounded by illusory contours; the triangle appears brighter than and to lie above the background. If the sectors are coloured, the colour fills the illusory area, a phenomenon known as neon colour spreading . We investigated spatial limitations on the perception of Kanizsa-type illusions and how other stimuli and viewing parameters affected these limitations. We also studied complex configurations thick, bent, mobile and chromatic inducers - to determine whether illusions combining several attributes can be perceived. The results suggest that the visual system is highly effective in completing a percept. The perception of an illusory figure is spatially scale invariant when perceived at threshold. The processing time and the number of fixations modify the percept, making the perception of the illusion more probable in various viewing conditions. Furthermore, the fact that the illusion can be perceived when only one inducer is physically present at any given moment indicates the potential of single inducers. Apparently, modelling illusory figure perception will require a combination of low-level, local processes and higher-level integrative processes. Our studies with stimuli combining several attributes relevant to object perception demonstrate that the perception of an illusory figure is flexible and is maintained also when it contains colour and volume and when shown in movement. All in all, the results confirm the assumed importance of the visual processes related with the perception of illusory figures in everyday viewing. This is indicated by the variety of inducer modifications that can be made without destroying the percept. Furthermore, the illusion can acquire additional attributes from such modifications. Due to individual differences in the perception of illusory figures, universal values for absolute performance are not always meaningful, but stable trends and general relations do exist.

Influence of concentration, temperature and humidity on the toxicity of phosphine to the strongly phosphine-resistant psocid Liposcelis bostrychophila Badonnel (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae)

BACKGROUND: The psocid Liposcelis bostrychophila Badonnel, is a widespread, significant pest of stored commodities, has developed strong resistance to phosphine, the major grain disinfestant. The aim was to develop effective fumigation protocols to control this resistant pest. RESULTS: Time to population extinction of all life stages (TPE) in days was evaluated at a series of phosphine concentrations and temperatures at two relative humidities. Regression analysis showed that temperature, concentration and relative humidity all contributed significantly to describing TPE (P < 0.001, R2 = 0.95), with temperature being the dominant variable, accounting for 74.4% of the variation. Irrespective of phosphine concentration, TPE was longer at lower temperatures and high humidity (70% RH) and shorter at higher temperatures and low humidity (55% RH). At any concentration of phosphine, a combination of higher temperature and lower humidity provides the shortest fumigation period to control resistant L. bostrychophila. For example, 19 and 11 days of fumigation are required at 15 °C and 70% RH at 0.1 and 1.0 mg L-1 of phosphine respectively, whereas only 4 and 2 days are required at 35 °C and 55% RH for the same respective concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: The developed fumigation protocols will provide industry with flexibility in application of phosphine.

Secret Squirrel Stuff in the Australian Curriculum English: The genesis of the ‘new’ grammar

In much the same way that a squirrel stores a range of food in a range of places, the Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority’s (ACARA) Australian Curriculum: English (ACARA, 2015) stores references to grammar in a range of places. This paper explores some seemingly ‘hidden’ grammars within the AC:E to (re)discover their genesis and how they unfold across Foundation to Year 6. The first ‘Secret Squirrel’ moment centres on the introduction of a new grammar which weaves traditional Latin-based and Systemic Functional Linguistics (SFL) theory. The second ‘Secret Squirrel’ moment centres on the use of one sub-system of SFL Theory, the System of Appraisal, and its potential to provide an analytical lens for ‘reading’ the interpersonal meaning within narratives. The remainder of the paper draws on Goodson’s (1990) notion of curriculum as a social construction, paying attention to the levels of processes and (potential) practice. This part of the paper focuses on the System of Appraisal as it is introduced in the AC:E and then translates the Content Descriptions to an example analysis. One stimulus text, Melanie Watt’s (2012) children’s picture book ‘Scaredy Squirrel at the Beach’, is introduced then analysed using the System of Appraisal as an analytical lens for identifying how language choices ‘go to work’ (Macken-Horarik, 2003, p. 285) on readers, that is how Watt’s language choices are crafted so a ‘compliant’ child reader (Martin & White, 2005, p. 62) has the opportunity to ‘feel with’ and thus ‘adjudicate’ the behaviour of characters in particular ways (Macken-Horarik, 2003, p. 285).

Detection and characterisation of strong resistance to phosphine in Brazilian Rhyzopertha dominica (F.) (Coleoptera: Bostrychidae)

As failure to control Rhyzopertha dominica (F.) with phosphine is a common problem in the grain-growing regions of Brazil, a study was undertaken to investigate the frequency, distribution and strength of phosphine resistance in R. dominica in Brazil. Nineteen samples of R. dominica were collected between 1991 and 2003 from central storages where phosphine fumigation had failed to control this species. Insects were cultured without selection until testing in 2005. Each sample was tested for resistance to phosphine on the basis of the response of adults to discriminating concentrations of phosphine (20 and 48 h exposures) and full dose-response assays (48 h exposure). Responses of the Brazilian R. dominica samples were compared with reference susceptible, weak-resistance and strong-resistance strains from Australia in parallel assays. All Brazilian population samples showed resistance to phosphine: five were diagnosed with weak resistance and 14 with strong resistance. Five samples showed levels of resistance similar to the reference strong-resistance strain. A representative highly resistant sample was characterised by exposing mixed-age cultures to a range of constant concentrations of phosphine for various exposure periods. Time to population extinction (TPE) and time to 99.9% suppression of population (LT99.9) values of this sample were generally similar to those of the reference strong-resistance strain. For example, at 0.1, 0.5 and 1.0 mg L-1, LT99.9 values for BR33 and the reference strong-resistance strain were respectively 21, 6.4 and 3.7 days and 17, 6.2 and 3.8 days. With both strains, doubling phosphine concentrations to 2 mg L -1 resulted in increased LT99.9 and TPE. High level and frequency of resistance in all population samples, some of which had been cultured without selection for up to 12 years, suggest little or no fitness deficit associated with phosphine resistance. The present research indicates that widespread phosphine resistance may be developing in Brazil. Fumigation practices should be monitored and resistance management plans implemented to alleviate further resistance development.

Molecular Dynamics in [(CH8)aN]z Cd14 A Proton Magnetic Relaxation Study

second moment measurements are carried out on [(CH,),N], CdI, in the temperature range 77 to 400 K. The results are interpreted based on a molecular dynamical model of randomly reorienting methyl groups and isotropically tumbling tetramethyl ammonium group. The relaxation data show contributions from spin-rotation interaction at high temperatures and presence of inequivalent methyl groups. The correlation times and associated activation energies, connected with this model, are calculated from the data. The structure in the absorption line and in the free-induction decay signal at 77 K indicates the possibility of tunnelling motion of the methyl groups. Im Temperaturbereich 77 bis 400 K werden an [(CH,),N],CdI, Protonen-Spin-Gitter-Relaxationsexperimente (bei Larmorfrequenzen von 10,20 und 30 MHz) und Messungen des zweiten Moments durchgefiihrt. Die Ergebnisse werden an Hand eines molekularen dynamischen Modells sich statistisch umorientierender Methylgruppen und isotrop taumelnder Tetramethyl-Ammoniumgruppen interpretiert. Die Relaxationswerte zeigen Beitriige von Spin-Rotations-Wechselwirkung bei hohen Temperaturen und die Anwesenheit von inaquivalenten Methylgruppen. Die Korrelationszeiten und verknupften Aktivierungsenergien, die mit diesem Model1 verbunden sind, werden am den Werten berechnet. Die Struktur in der Absorptionslinie und im Abklingsignal der freien Induktion bei 77 K zeigt die Moglichkeit einer Tunnelbewegung der Methylgruppen.

Quantifying Transmission of Campylobacter jejuni in Commercial Broiler Flocks

Since meat from poultry colonized with Campylobacter spp. is a major cause of bacterial gastroenteritis, human exposure should be reduced by, among other things, prevention of colonization of broiler flocks. To obtain more insight into possible sources of introduction of Campylobacter into broiler flocks, it is essential to estimate the moment that the first bird in a flock is colonized. If the rate of transmission within a flock were known, such an estimate could be determined from the change in the prevalence of colonized birds in a flock over time. The aim of this study was to determine the rate of transmission of Campylobacter using field data gathered for 5 years for Australian broiler flocks. We used unique sampling data for 42 Campylobacter jejuni-colonized flocks and estimated the transmission rate, which is defined as the number of secondary infections caused by one colonized bird per day. The estimate was 2.37 +/- 0.295 infections per infectious bird per day, which implies that in our study population colonized flocks consisting of 20,000 broilers would have an increase in within-flock prevalence to 95% within 4.4 to 7.2 days after colonization of the first broiler. Using Bayesian analysis, the moment of colonization of the first bird in a flock was estimated to be from 21 days of age onward in all flocks in the study. This study provides an important quantitative estimate of the rate of transmission of Campylobacter in broiler flocks, which could be helpful in future studies on the epidemiology of Campylobacter in the field.

Miniscleral lens wear influences corneal curvature and optics

Purpose Transient changes in corneal topography associated with soft and conventional or reverse geometry rigid contact lens wear have been well documented; however, only a few studies have examined the influence of scleral contact lens wear upon the cornea. Therefore, in this study, we examined the influence of modern miniscleral contact lenses, which land entirely on the sclera and overlying tissues, upon anterior corneal curvature and optics. Methods Anterior corneal topography and elevation data were acquired using Scheimpflug imaging (Pentacam HR, Oculus) immediately prior to and following 8 hours of miniscleral contact lens wear in 15 young healthy adults (mean age 22 ± 3 years, 8 East Asian, 7 Caucasian) with normal corneae. Corneal diurnal variations were accounted for using data collected on a dedicated measurement day without contact lens wear. Corneal clearance was quantified using an optical coherence tomographer (RS-3000, Nidek) following lens insertion and after 8 hours of lens wear. Results Although corneal clearance was maintained throughout the 8 hour lens wear period, significant corneal flattening (up to 0.08 ± 0.04 mm) was observed, primarily in the superior mid-peripheral cornea, which resulted in a slight increase in against-the-rule corneal astigmatism (mean +0.02/-0.15 x 94 for an 8 mm diameter). Higher order aberration terms of horizontal coma, vertical coma and spherical aberration all underwent significant changes for an 8 mm corneal diameter (p ≤ 0.01), which typically resulted in a decrease in RMS error values (mean change in total higher order RMS -0.035 ± 0.046 µm for an 8 mm diameter). There was no association between the magnitude of change in central or mid-peripheral corneal clearance during lens wear and the observed changes in corneal curvature (p > 0.05). However, Asian participants displayed a significantly greater reduction in corneal clearance (p = 0.04) and greater superior-nasal corneal flattening compared to Caucasians (p = 0.048). Conclusions Miniscleral contact lenses that vault the cornea induce significant changes in anterior corneal surface topography and higher order aberrations following 8 hours of lens wear. The region of greatest corneal flattening was observed in the superior-nasal mid-periphery, more so in Asian participants. Practitioners should be aware that corneal measurements obtained following miniscleral lens removal may mask underlying corneal steepening.