Development of a risk-oriented strategic sourcing (ROSS) framework for the construction and electronics manufacturing industries

Strategic sourcing has increased in importance in recent years, and now plays an important role in companies’ planning. The current volatility in supply markets means companies face multiple challenges involving lock-in situations, supplier bankruptcies or supply security issues. In addition, their exposure can increase due to natural disasters, as witnessed recently in the form of bird flu, volcanic ash and tsunamis. Therefore, the primary focus of this study is risk management in the context of strategic sourcing. The study presents a literature review on sourcing based on the 15 years from 1998–2012, and considers 131 academic articles. The literature describes strategic sourcing as a strategic, holistic process in managing supplier relationships, with a long-term focus on adding value to the company and realising competitive advantage. Few studies discovered the real risk impact and status of risk management in strategic sourcing, and evaluation across countries and industries was limited, with the construction sector particularly under-researched. This methodology is founded on a qualitative study of twenty cases across Ger-many and the United Kingdom from the construction sector and electronics manufacturing industries. While considering risk management in the context of strategic sourcing, the thesis takes into account six dimensions that cover trends in strategic sourcing, theoretical and practical sourcing models, risk management, supply and demand management, critical success factors and the strategic supplier evaluation. The study contributes in several ways. First, recent trends are traced and future needs identified across the research dimensions of countries, industries and companies. Second, it evaluates critical success factors in contemporary strategic sourcing. Third, it explores the application of theoretical and practical sourcing models in terms of effectiveness and sustainability. Fourth, based on the case study findings, a risk-oriented strategic sourcing framework and a model for strategic sourcing are developed. These are based on the validation of contemporary requirements and a critical evaluation of the existing situation. It contemplates the empirical findings and leads to a structured process to manage risk in strategic sourcing. The risk-oriented framework considers areas such as trends, corporate and sourcing strategy, critical success factors, strategic supplier selection criteria, risk assessment, reporting, strategy alignment and reporting. The proposed model highlights the essential dimensions in strategic sourcing and guides us to a new definition of strategic sourcing supported by this empirical study.

Hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) network:insights from mathematical models

Oxygen is a crucial molecule for cellular function. When oxygen demand exceeds supply, the oxygen sensing pathway centred on the hypoxia inducible factor (HIF) is switched on and promotes adaptation to hypoxia by up-regulating genes involved in angiogenesis, erythropoiesis and glycolysis. The regulation of HIF is tightly modulated through intricate regulatory mechanisms. Notably, its protein stability is controlled by the oxygen sensing prolyl hydroxylase domain (PHD) enzymes and its transcriptional activity is controlled by the asparaginyl hydroxylase FIH (factor inhibiting HIF-1).To probe the complexity of hypoxia-induced HIF signalling, efforts in mathematical modelling of the pathway have been underway for around a decade. In this paper, we review the existing mathematical models developed to describe and explain specific behaviours of the HIF pathway and how they have contributed new insights into our understanding of the network. Topics for modelling included the switch-like response to decreased oxygen gradient, the role of micro environmental factors, the regulation by FIH and the temporal dynamics of the HIF response. We will also discuss the technical aspects, extent and limitations of these models. Recently, HIF pathway has been implicated in other disease contexts such as hypoxic inflammation and cancer through crosstalking with pathways like NF?B and mTOR. We will examine how future mathematical modelling and simulation of interlinked networks can aid in understanding HIF behaviour in complex pathophysiological situations. Ultimately this would allow the identification of new pharmacological targets in different disease settings.

Culture and the psychological impacts of natural disasters: Implications for disaster management and disaster mental health

In recent decades, natural disasters have caused extensive losses and damages to human psychological wellbeing, economy, and society. It has been argued that cultural factors such as social values, traditions, and attachment to a location influence communities facing and responding to natural disasters. However, the issue of culture in disaster mental health seems to have received limited attention in policy and practice. This review highlights the importance of cultural background in the assessment of vulnerability to the psychological impacts of disasters, disaster preparedness, and provision of disaster mental health services. In particular, this paper suggests the importance of cultural competence in the planning and delivery of effective disaster mental health services. In order to address the varying circumstances of people with different cultural backgrounds, disaster mental health services must be developed in a culturally sensitive manner. Development of culturally competent disaster mental health services requires significant changes in policy making, administration, and direct service provision

Implications of Recent Trends in Telecommunications on Modeling and Simulation for the Telecommunication Industry

With this paper we would like to trigger a discussion on future needs of modeling and simulation techniques and tools for the telecommunication industry. We claim that the telecommunication market has undergone severe changes that affect the need for and type of simulations in industrial research. We suggest some approaches how to address these new challenges. We believe that there is need for intensive research in the area.

Leaders' sensemaking under crises:emerging cognitive consensus over time within management teams

When facing a crisis, leaders' sensemaking can take a considerable amount of time due to the need to develop consensus in how to deal with it so that vision formation and sensegiving can take place. However, research into emerging cognitive consensus when leaders deal with a crisis over time is lacking. This is limiting a detailed understanding of how organizations respond to crises. The findings, based on a longitudinal analysis of cognitive maps within three management teams at a single organization, highlight considerable individual differences in cognitive content when starting to make sense of a crisis. Evidence for an emerging viable prescriptive mental model for the future was found, but not so much in the management as a whole. Instead, the findings highlight increasing cognitive consensus based on similarities in objectives and cause-effect beliefs within well-defined management teams over time.

Emotions and a Prior Knowledge Representation in Artificial General Intelligence

In this paper a prior knowledge representation for Artificial General Intelligence is proposed based on fuzzy rules using linguistic variables. These linguistic variables may be produced by neural network. Rules may be used for generation of basic emotions – positive and negative, which influence on planning and execution of behavior. The representation of Three Laws of Robotics as such prior knowledge is suggested as highest level of motivation in AGI.

Emergency Prevention and Situation Monitoring in Carpathian Region

Carpathian region is well known as tectonically active zone. So, in addition to common problems of such region, as common water floods, possible mudflows and landslides a local seismic activity must be taken in account. In this paper a main points of situation monitoring in Carpathian region and ways how they help in emergency prevention are described. A short overview of existing solutions and future approach is being made.

Cognitive behaviour therapy for mothers of children with food allergy:a case series

Background: Food allergy affects quality of life in patients and parents and mothers report high levels of anxiety and stress. Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT) may be helpful in reducing the psychological impact of food allergy. The aim of this study was to examine the appropriateness and effectiveness of CBT to improve psychological outcomes in parents of children with food allergy. Methods: Five parents (all mothers) from a local allergy clinic requested to have CBT; six mothers acted as controls and completed questionnaires only. CBT was individual and face-to face and lasted 12 weeks. All participants completed measures of anxiety and depression, worry, stress, general mental health, generic and food allergy specific quality of life at baseline and at 12 weeks. Results: Anxiety, depression and worry in the CBT group significantly reduced and overall mental health and QoL significantly improved from baseline to 12 weeks (all p < 0.05) in mothers in the CBT group; control group scores remained stable. Conclusions: CBT appears to be appropriate and effective in mothers of children with food allergy and a larger randomised control trial now needs to be conducted. Ways in which aspects of CBT can be incorporated into allergy clinic visits need investigation.

Implementing an agent-based model with a spatial visual display in discrete-event simulation software

There has been an increasing interest in the use of agent-based simulation and some discussion of the relative merits of this approach as compared to discrete-event simulation. There are differing views on whether an agent-based simulation offers capabilities that discrete-event cannot provide or whether all agent-based applications can at least in theory be undertaken using a discrete-event approach. This paper presents a simple agent-based NetLogo model and corresponding discrete-event versions implemented in the widely used ARENA software. The two versions of the discrete-event model presented use a traditional process flow approach normally adopted in discrete-event simulation software and also an agent-based approach to the model build. In addition a real-time spatial visual display facility is provided using a spreadsheet platform controlled by VBA code embedded within the ARENA model. Initial findings from this investigation are that discrete-event simulation can indeed be used to implement agent-based models and with suitable integration elements such as VBA provide the spatial displays associated with agent-based software.

Anticholinergic burden in older adults with intellectual disability; relationships with multimorbidity and adverse effects

Background: Anticholinergic medications may be associated with adverse clinical outcomes, including acute impairments in cognition and anticholinergic side effects, the risk of adverse outcomes increasing with increasing anticholinergic exposure. Older people with intellectual disability may be at increased risk of exposure to anticholinergic medicines due to their higher prevalence of comorbidities. We sought to determine anticholinergic burden in ageing people with intellectual disability. Methods: Medication data (self-report/proxy-report) was drawn from Wave 1 of the Intellectual Disability Supplement to the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (IDS-TILDA), a study on the ageing of 753nationally representative people with an IDC40 years randomly selected from the National Intellectual Disability Database. Each individual’s cumulative exposure to anticholinergic medications was calculated using the Anticholinergic Cognitive Burden Scale (ACB) amended by a multi-disciplinary group with independent advice to account for the range of medicines in use in this population. Results: Overall, 70.1 % (527) reported taking medications with possible or definite anticholinergic properties (ACBC1), with a mean (±SD) ACB score of 4.5 (±3.0) (maximum 16). Of those reporting anticholinergic exposure (n=527), 41.3 % (217) reported an ACB score o fC5. Antipsychotics accounted for 36.4 % of the total cumulative ACB score followed by anticholinergics (16 %) and antidepressants (10.8 %). The most frequently reported medicine with anticholinergic activity was carbamazepine 16.8 % (127). The most frequently reported medicine with high anticholinergic activity (ACB 3) was olanzapine13.4 % (101). There was a significant association between higher anti-cholinergic exposure and multimorbidity, particularly mental health morbidity, and some anticholinergic adverse effects such as constipation and day-time drowsiness but not self-rated health. Conclusion: Using simple cumulative measures proved an effective means to capture total burden and helped establish that anticholinergic exposure in the study population was high. The finding highlights the need for comprehensive reviews of medications.

Mobility changes in older age: neuropsychological, neurophysiological and cognitive predictors of successful adaptation in a real world scenario

The aims of this thesis were to investigate the neuropsychological, neurophysiological, and cognitive contributors to mobility changes with increasing age. In a series of studies with adults aged 45-88 years, unsafe pedestrian behaviour and falls were investigated in relation to i) cognitive functions (including response time variability, executive function, and visual attention tests), ii) mobility assessments (including gait and balance and using motion capture cameras), iii) motor initiation and pedestrian road crossing behavior (using a simulated pedestrian road scene), iv) neuronal and functional brain changes (using a computer based crossing task with magnetoencephalography), and v) quality of life questionnaires (including fear of falling and restricted range of travel). Older adults are more likely to be fatally injured at the far-side of the road compared to the near-side of the road, however, the underlying mobility and cognitive processes related to lane-specific (i.e. near-side or far-side) pedestrian crossing errors in older adults is currently unknown. The first study explored cognitive, motor initiation, and mobility predictors of unsafe pedestrian crossing behaviours. The purpose of the first study (Chapter 2) was to determine whether collisions at the near-side and far-side would be differentially predicted by mobility indices (such as walking speed and postural sway), motor initiation, and cognitive function (including spatial planning, visual attention, and within participant variability) with increasing age. The results suggest that near-side unsafe pedestrian crossing errors are related to processing speed, whereas far-side errors are related to spatial planning difficulties. Both near-side and far-side crossing errors were related to walking speed and motor initiation measures (specifically motor initiation variability). The salient mobility predictors of unsafe pedestrian crossings determined in the above study were examined in Chapter 3 in conjunction with the presence of a history of falls. The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which walking speed (indicated as a salient predictor of unsafe crossings and start-up delay in Chapter 2), and previous falls can be predicted and explained by age-related changes in mobility and cognitive function changes (specifically within participant variability and spatial ability). 53.2% of walking speed variance was found to be predicted by self-rated mobility score, sit-to-stand time, motor initiation, and within participant variability. Although a significant model was not found to predict fall history variance, postural sway and attentional set shifting ability was found to be strongly related to the occurrence of falls within the last year. Next in Chapter 4, unsafe pedestrian crossing behaviour and pedestrian predictors (both mobility and cognitive measures) from Chapter 2 were explored in terms of increasing hemispheric laterality of attentional functions and inter-hemispheric oscillatory beta power changes associated with increasing age. Elevated beta (15-35 Hz) power in the motor cortex prior to movement, and reduced beta power post-movement has been linked to age-related changes in mobility. In addition, increasing recruitment of both hemispheres has been shown to occur and be beneficial to perform similarly to younger adults in cognitive tasks (Cabeza, Anderson, Locantore, & McIntosh, 2002). It has been hypothesised that changes in hemispheric neural beta power may explain the presence of more pedestrian errors at the farside of the road in older adults. The purpose of the study was to determine whether changes in age-related cortical oscillatory beta power and hemispheric laterality are linked to unsafe pedestrian behaviour in older adults. Results indicated that pedestrian errors at the near-side are linked to hemispheric bilateralisation, and neural overcompensation post-movement, 4 whereas far-side unsafe errors are linked to not employing neural compensation methods (hemispheric bilateralisation). Finally, in Chapter 5, fear of falling, life space mobility, and quality of life in old age were examined to determine their relationships with cognition, mobility (including fall history and pedestrian behaviour), and motor initiation. In addition to death and injury, mobility decline (such as pedestrian errors in Chapter 2, and falls in Chapter 3) and cognition can negatively affect quality of life and result in activity avoidance. Further, number of falls in Chapter 3 was not significantly linked to mobility and cognition alone, and may be further explained by a fear of falling. The objective of the above study (Study 2, Chapter 3) was to determine the role of mobility and cognition on fear of falling and life space mobility, and the impact on quality of life measures. Results indicated that missing safe pedestrian crossing gaps (potentially indicating crossing anxiety) and mobility decline were consistent predictors of fear of falling, reduced life space mobility, and quality of life variance. Social community (total number of close family and friends) was also linked to life space mobility and quality of life. Lower cognitive functions (particularly processing speed and reaction time) were found to predict variance in fear of falling and quality of life in old age. Overall, the findings indicated that mobility decline (particularly walking speed or walking difficulty), processing speed, and intra-individual variability in attention (including motor initiation variability) are salient predictors of participant safety (mainly pedestrian crossing errors) and wellbeing with increasing age. More research is required to produce a significant model to explain the number of falls.

Discrete time models of the term structure of interest rates and interest rate contingent claims

In this study, discrete time one-factor models of the term structure of interest rates and their application to the pricing of interest rate contingent claims are examined theoretically and empirically. The first chapter provides a discussion of the issues involved in the pricing of interest rate contingent claims and a description of the Ho and Lee (1986), Maloney and Byrne (1989), and Black, Derman, and Toy (1990) discrete time models. In the second chapter, a general discrete time model of the term structure from which the Ho and Lee, Maloney and Byrne, and Black, Derman, and Toy models can all be obtained is presented. The general model also provides for the specification of an additional model, the ExtendedMB model. The third chapter illustrates the application of the discrete time models to the pricing of a variety of interest rate contingent claims. In the final chapter, the performance of the Ho and Lee, Black, Derman, and Toy, and ExtendedMB models in the pricing of Eurodollar futures options is investigated empirically. The results indicate that the Black, Derman, and Toy and ExtendedMB models outperform the Ho and Lee model. Little difference in the performance of the Black, Derman, and Toy and ExtendedMB models is detected. ^

Effects of commuting and mode of transportation on performance, affect, cardiovascular activity, and frustration tolerance

It was hypothesized that making a commute elevates blood pressure, causes negative affect, reduces frustration tolerance, and impairs performance on simple and complex cognitive tasks. This hypothesis was tested by varying choice and type of commute in an experiment in which 168 volunteers were randomly assigned to one of six experimental conditions. The behavior of subjects who drove 30 miles or rode on a bus for the same distance were compared with the reactions of students who did not commute. Multivariate analyses of variance indicated that subjects who made the commute showed lower frustration tolerance and deficits on complex cognitive task performance. Commuting also raised pulse and systolic blood pressure. Multivariate analyses of covariance (MANCOVA) were performed in an effort to identify physiological and emotional reactions that may mediate these relations. No mediational relationships were uncovered. ^

Physical dynamic simulation of shipboard power system components in a distributed computational environment

Shipboard power systems have different characteristics than the utility power systems. In the Shipboard power system it is crucial that the systems and equipment work at their peak performance levels. One of the most demanding aspects for simulations of the Shipboard Power Systems is to connect the device under test to a real-time simulated dynamic equivalent and in an environment with actual hardware in the Loop (HIL). The real time simulations can be achieved by using multi-distributed modeling concept, in which the global system model is distributed over several processors through a communication link. The advantage of this approach is that it permits the gradual change from pure simulation to actual application. In order to perform system studies in such an environment physical phase variable models of different components of the shipboard power system were developed using operational parameters obtained from finite element (FE) analysis. These models were developed for two types of studies low and high frequency studies. Low frequency studies are used to examine the shipboard power systems behavior under load switching, and faults. High-frequency studies were used to predict abnormal conditions due to overvoltage, and components harmonic behavior. Different experiments were conducted to validate the developed models. The Simulation and experiment results show excellent agreement. The shipboard power systems components behavior under internal faults was investigated using FE analysis. This developed technique is very curial in the Shipboard power systems faults detection due to the lack of comprehensive fault test databases. A wavelet based methodology for feature extraction of the shipboard power systems current signals was developed for harmonic and fault diagnosis studies. This modeling methodology can be utilized to evaluate and predicate the NPS components future behavior in the design stage which will reduce the development cycles, cut overall cost, prevent failures, and test each subsystem exhaustively before integrating it into the system.

A method for enhancing digital information displayed to computer users with visual refractive errors via spatial and spectral processing

This research pursued the conceptualization, implementation, and verification of a system that enhances digital information displayed on an LCD panel to users with visual refractive errors. The target user groups for this system are individuals who have moderate to severe visual aberrations for which conventional means of compensation, such as glasses or contact lenses, does not improve their vision. This research is based on a priori knowledge of the user's visual aberration, as measured by a wavefront analyzer. With this information it is possible to generate images that, when displayed to this user, will counteract his/her visual aberration. The method described in this dissertation advances the development of techniques for providing such compensation by integrating spatial information in the image as a means to eliminate some of the shortcomings inherent in using display devices such as monitors or LCD panels. Additionally, physiological considerations are discussed and integrated into the method for providing said compensation. In order to provide a realistic sense of the performance of the methods described, they were tested by mathematical simulation in software, as well as by using a single-lens high resolution CCD camera that models an aberrated eye, and finally with human subjects having various forms of visual aberrations. Experiments were conducted on these systems and the data collected from these experiments was evaluated using statistical analysis. The experimental results revealed that the pre-compensation method resulted in a statistically significant improvement in vision for all of the systems. Although significant, the improvement was not as large as expected for the human subject tests. Further analysis suggest that even under the controlled conditions employed for testing with human subjects, the characterization of the eye may be changing. This would require real-time monitoring of relevant variables (e.g. pupil diameter) and continuous adjustment in the pre-compensation process to yield maximum viewing enhancement.