A stochastic jump and deterministic dynamics model of impact failure evolution with rate effect

Motivated by the observation of the rate effect on material failure, a model of nonlinear and nonlocal evolution is developed, that includes both stochastic and dynamic effects. In phase space a transitional region prevails, which distinguishes the failure behavior from a globally stable one to that of catastrophic. Several probability functions are found to characterize the distinctive features of evolution due to different degrees of nucleation, growth and coalescence rates. The results may provide a better understanding of material failure.

PICES-GLOBEC International Program on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity: Report of the 1999 MONITOR and REX Workshops, and the 2000 MODEL Workshop on Lower Trophic Level Modelling

Table of Contents [pdf, 0.11 Mb] Executive Summary [pdf, 0.07 Mb] MODEL Task Team Workshop Report Final Report of the International Workshop to Develop a Prototype Lower Trophic Level Ecosystem Model for Comparison of Different Marine Ecosystems in the North Pacific [pdf, 11.64 Mb] Report of the 1999 MONITOR Task Team Workshop [pdf, 0.32 Mb] Report of the 1999 REX Task Team Workshop Herring and Euphausiid population dynamics Douglas E. Hay and Bruce McCarter Spatial, temporal and life-stage variation in herring diets in British Columbia [pdf, 0.10 Mb] Augustus J. Paul and J. M. Paul Over winter changes in herring from Prince William Sound, Alaska [pdf, 0.08 Mb] N. G. Chupisheva Qualitative texture characteristic of herring (Clupea pallasi pallasi) pre-larvae developed from the natural and artificial spawning-grounds in Severnaya Bay (Peter the Great Bay) [pdf, 0.07 Mb] Gordon A. McFarlane, Richard J. Beamish and Jake SchweigertPacific herring: Common factors have opposite impacts in adjacent ecosystems [pdf, 0.15 Mb] Tokimasa Kobayashi, Keizou Yabuki, Masayoshi Sasaki and Jun-Ichi Kodama Long-term fluctuation of the catch of Pacific herring in Northern Japan [pdf, 0.39 Mb] Jacqueline M. O’Connell Holocene fish remains from Saanich Inlet, British Columbia, Canada [pdf, 0.40 Mb] Elsa R. Ivshina and Irina Y. Bragina On relationship between crustacean zooplankton (Euphausiidae and Copepods) and Sakhalin-Hokkaido herring (Tatar Strait, Sea of Japan) [pdf, 0.14 Mb] Stein Kaartvbeedt Fish predation on krill and krill antipredator behaviour [pdf, 0.08 Mb] Nikolai I. Naumenko Euphausiids and western Bering Sea herring feeding [pdf, 0.07 Mb] David M. Checkley, Jr. Interactions Between Fish and Euphausiids and Potential Relations to Climate and Recruitment [pdf, 0.08 Mb] Vladimir I. Radchenko and Elena P. Dulepova Shall we expect the Korf-Karaginsky herring migrations into the offshore western Bering Sea? [pdf, 0.75 Mb] Young Shil Kang Euphausiids in the Korean waters and its relationship with major fish resources [pdf, 0.29 Mb] William T. Peterson, Leah Feinberg and Julie Keister Ecological Zonation of euphausiids off central Oregon [pdf, 0.11 Mb] Scott M. Rumsey Environmentally forced variability in larval development and stage-structure: Implications for the recruitment of Euphausia pacifica (Hansen) in the Southern California Bight [pdf, 3.26 Mb] Scott M. Rumsey Inverse modelling of developmental parameters in Euphausia pacifica: The relative importance of spawning history and environmental forcing to larval stage-frequency distributions [pdf, 98.79 Mb] Michio J. Kishi, Hitoshi Motono & Kohji Asahi An ecosystem model with zooplankton vertical migration focused on Oyashio region [pdf, 33.32 Mb] PICES-GLOBEC Implementation Panel on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity Program Executive Committee and Task Team List [pdf, 0.05 Mb] (Document pdf contains 142 pages)

Elastic and statistically brittle (ESB) model, damage localization and catastrophic rupture

In this paper, an elastic and statistically brittle (ESB) model is applied to the process of damage evolution induced catastrophic rupture and the influence of localization and softening on catastrophic rupture is discussed. According to the analysis, the uncertainty of catastrophic rupture should be attributed to the unknown scale of localized zone. Based on the elastic and statistically brittle model but local mean field approximation, the relation between the scale of localized zone and catastrophic rupture is obtained and then justified with experiments. These results can not only give a deeper understanding of the mechanism governing catastrophic rupture, but also provide a possible tool to foresee the occurrence of catastrophic rupture.

The South Atlantic Alliance: A southeastern U.S. state Governors initiative to address opportunities and challenges embodied in the region's coastal and ocean domain

The pressures placed on the natural, environmental, economic, and cultural sectors from continued growth, population shifts, weather and climate, and environmental quality are increasing exponentially in the southeastern U.S. region. Our growing understanding of the relationship of humans with the marine environment is leading us to explore new ecosystem-based approaches to coastal management, marine resources planning, and coastal adaptation that engages multiple state jurisdictions. The urgency of the situation calls for coordinated regional actions by the states, in conjunction with supporting partners and leveraging a diversity of resources, to address critical issues in sustaining our coastal and ocean ecosystems and enhancing the quality of life of our citizens. The South Atlantic Alliance (www.southatlanticalliance.org) was formally established on October 19, 2009 to “implement science-based policies and solutions that enhance and protect the value of coastal and ocean resources of the southeastern United States which support the region's culture and economy now and for future generations.” The Alliance, which includes North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida, will provide a regional mechanism for collaborating, coordinating, and sharing information in support of resource sustainability; improved regional alignment; cooperative planning and leveraging of resources; integrated research, observations, and mapping; increased awareness of the challenges facing the South Atlantic region; and inclusiveness and integration at all levels. Although I am preparing and presenting this overview of the South Atlantic Alliance and its current status, there are a host of representatives from agencies within the four states, universities, NGOs, and ongoing southeastern regional ocean and coastal programs that are contributing significant time, expertise, and energy to the success of the Alliance; information presented herein and to be presented in my oral presentation was generated by the collaborative efforts of these professionals. I also wish to acknowledge the wisdom and foresight of the Governors of the four states in establishing this exciting regional ocean partnership. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Studies of ambient organic and inorganic aerosol in Southern California

The negative impacts of ambient aerosol particles, or particulate matter (PM), on human health and climate are well recognized. However, owing to the complexity of aerosol particle formation and chemical evolution, emissions control strategies remain difficult to develop in a cost effective manner. In this work, three studies are presented to address several key issues currently stymieing California's efforts to continue improving its air quality.

Gas-phase organic mass (GPOM) and CO emission factors are used in conjunction with measured enhancements in oxygenated organic aerosol (OOA) relative to CO to quantify the significant lack of closure between expected and observed organic aerosol concentrations attributable to fossil-fuel emissions. Two possible conclusions emerge from the analysis to yield consistency with the ambient organic data: (1) vehicular emissions are not a dominant source of anthropogenic fossil SOA in the Los Angeles Basin, or (2) the ambient SOA mass yields used to determine the SOA formation potential of vehicular emissions are substantially higher than those derived from laboratory chamber studies. Additional laboratory chamber studies confirm that, owing to vapor-phase wall loss, the SOA mass yields currently used in virtually all 3D chemical transport models are biased low by as much as a factor of 4. Furthermore, predictions from the Statistical Oxidation Model suggest that this bias could be as high as a factor of 8 if the influence of the chamber walls could be removed entirely.

Once vapor-phase wall loss has been accounted for in a new suite of laboratory chamber experiments, the SOA parameterizations within atmospheric chemical transport models should also be updated. To address the numerical challenges of implementing the next generation of SOA models in atmospheric chemical transport models, a novel mathematical framework, termed the Moment Method, is designed and presented. Assessment of the Moment Method strengths and weaknesses provide valuable insight that can guide future development of SOA modules for atmospheric CTMs.

Finally, regional inorganic aerosol formation and evolution is investigated via detailed comparison of predictions from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ version 4.7.1) model against a suite of airborne and ground-based meteorological measurements, gas- and aerosol-phase inorganic measurements, and black carbon (BC) measurements over Southern California during the CalNex field campaign in May/June 2010. Results suggests that continuing to target sulfur emissions with the hopes of reducing ambient PM concentrations may not the most effective strategy for Southern California. Instead, targeting dairy emissions is likely to be an effective strategy for substantially reducing ammonium nitrate concentrations in the eastern part of the Los Angeles Basin.

Long Run Trends in the Price of Energy and Energy Services

4 p.

Understanding planet formation through high precision photometry and spectroscopy

From studies of protoplanetary disks to extrasolar planets and planetary debris, we aim to understand the full evolution of a planetary system. Observational constraints from ground- and space-based instrumentation allows us to measure the properties of objects near and far and are central to developing this understanding. We present here three observational campaigns that, when combined with theoretical models, reveal characteristics of different stages and remnants of planet formation. The Kuiper Belt provides evidence of chemical and dynamical activity that reveals clues to its primordial environment and subsequent evolution. Large samples of this population can only be assembled at optical wavelengths, with thermal measurements at infrared and sub-mm wavelengths currently available for only the largest and closest bodies. We measure the size and shape of one particular object precisely here, in hopes of better understanding its unique dynamical history and layered composition.

Molecular organic chemistry is one of the most fundamental and widespread facets of the universe, and plays a key role in planet formation. A host of carbon-containing molecules vibrationally emit in the near-infrared when excited by warm gas, T~1000 K. The NIRSPEC instrument at the W.M. Keck Observatory is uniquely configured to study large ranges of this wavelength region at high spectral resolution. Using this facility we present studies of warm CO gas in protoplanetary disks, with a new code for precise excitation modeling. A parameterized suite of models demonstrates the abilities of the code and matches observational constraints such as line strength and shape. We use the models to probe various disk parameters as well, which are easily extensible to others with known disk emission spectra such as water, carbon dioxide, acetylene, and hydrogen cyanide.

Lastly, the existence of molecules in extrasolar planets can also be studied with NIRSPEC and reveals a great deal about the evolution of the protoplanetary gas. The species we observe in protoplanetary disks are also often present in exoplanet atmospheres, and are abundant in Earth's atmosphere as well. Thus, a sophisticated telluric removal code is necessary to analyze these high dynamic range, high-resolution spectra. We present observations of a hot Jupiter, revealing water in its atmosphere and demonstrating a new technique for exoplanet mass determination and atmospheric characterization. We will also be applying this atmospheric removal code to the aforementioned disk observations, to improve our data analysis and probe less abundant species. Guiding models using observations is the only way to develop an accurate understanding of the timescales and processes involved. The futures of the modeling and of the observations are bright, and the end goal of realizing a unified model of planet formation will require both theory and data, from a diverse collection of sources.

Simulations and mechanisms of subtropical low-cloud response to climate change

This thesis focuses on improving the simulation skills and the theoretical understanding of the subtropical low cloud response to climate change.

First, an energetically consistent forcing framework is designed and implemented for the large eddy simulation (LES) of the low-cloud response to climate change. The three representative current-day subtropical low cloud regimes of cumulus (Cu), cumulus-over-stratocumulus, and stratocumulus (Sc) are all well simulated with this framework, and results are comparable to the conventional fixed-SST approach. However, the cumulus response to climate warming subject to energetic constraints differs significantly from the conventional approach with fixed SST. Under the energetic constraint, the subtropics warm less than the tropics, since longwave (LW) cooling is more efficient with the drier subtropical free troposphere. The surface latent heat flux (LHF) also increases only weakly subject to the surface energetic constraint. Both factors contribute to an increased estimated inversion strength (EIS), and decreased inversion height. The decreased Cu-depth contributes to a decrease of liquid water path (LWP) and weak positive cloud feedback. The conventional fixed-SST approach instead simulates a strong increase in LHF and deepening of the Cu layer, leading to a weakly negative cloud feedback. This illustrates the importance of energetic constraints to the simulation and understanding of the sign and magnitude of low-cloud feedback.

Second, an extended eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF) closure for the unified representation of sub-grid scale (SGS) turbulence and convection processes in general circulation models (GCM) is presented. The inclusion of prognostic terms and the elimination of the infinitesimal updraft fraction assumption makes it more flexible for implementation in models across different scales. This framework can be consistently extended to formulate multiple updrafts and downdrafts, as well as variances and covariances. It has been verified with LES in different boundary layer regimes in the current climate, and further development and implementation of this closure may help to improve our simulation skills and understanding of low-cloud feedback through GCMs.

Linking climate change, rice yield, and migration: the Philippine experience

This study tests the hypothesis that climate change, through its rice productivity impacts, induces out-migration in the Philippines. Results show that climate change effects such as increasing night time temperature and extreme rainfall pattern, by way of reduction in rice yield and farm revenues, significantly increases the number of Overseas Filipino Workers. Findings also show that overseas migration of female workers is more sensitive to climate and rice productivity changes compared to male overseas migration. However, unlike overseas migration, the reduction in yield and farm revenues act as a constraint to domestic migration.

Quantifying the limits of HANPP and carbon emissions which prolong total species well-being

Anthropogenic climate and land-use change are leading to irreversible losses of global biodiversity, upon which ecosystem functioning depends. Since total species' well-being depends on ecosystem goods and services, man must determine how much net primary productivity (NPP) may be appropriated and carbon emitted so as to not adversely impact this and future generations. In 2005, man ought to have only appropriated 9.72 Pg C of NPP, representing a factor 2.50, or 59.93%, reduction in human-appropriated NPP in that year. Concurrently, the carbon cycle would have been balanced with a factor 1.26, or 20.84%, reduction from 7.60 Gt C/year to 5.70 Gt C/year, representing a return to the 1986 levels. This limit is in keeping with the category III stabilization scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Projecting population growth to 2030 and its associated basic food requirements, the maximum HANPP remains at 9.74 ± 0.02 Pg C/year. This time-invariant HANPP may only provide for the current global population of 6.51 billion equitably at the current average consumption of 1.49 t C per capita, calling into question the sustainability of developing countries striving for high-consuming country levels of 5.85 t C per capita and its impacts on equitable resource distribution. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

Changes in frost frequency and desert vegetation assemblages in Grand Canyon, Arizona

The effect of decreasing frost frequency on desert vegetation was documented in Grand Canyon by replication of historical photographs. Although views by numerous photographers of Grand Canyon have been examined, 400 Robert Brewster Stanton and Franklin A. Nims views taken in the winter of 1889-1890 provide the best information on recent plant distribution. In Grand Canyon, where grazing is limited by the rugged topography, vegetation dynamics are controlled by climate and by demographic processes such as seed productivity, recruitment, longevity and mortality. The replicated photographs show distribution and abundance of several species were limited by severe frost before 1889. Two of these, brittlebush (Encelia farinosa) and barrel cactus (Ferocactus cylindraceus), have clearly expanded their ranges up-canyon and have increased their densities at sites where they were present in 1890. In 1890, brittlebush was present in warm microhabitats that provided refugia from frost damage. Views showing desert vegetation in 1923 indicate that Encelia expanded rapidly to near its current distribution between 1890 and 1923, whereas the expansion of Ferocactus occurred more slowly. The higher frequency of frost was probably related to an anomalous increase in winter storms between 1878 (and possibly 1862) and 1891 in the southwestern United States.

Climate forcing of Pacific herring recruitment and growth in southern British Columbia

Over the last 50 years, much of the variability in ocean climate and herring recruitment has occurred at two dominant periods centered around 5 and 16 years. Herring growth has also exhibited a dominant 5- and 18-year periodicity. A recent analysis of a number of relevant time series suggests that interannual variations in oceanic conditions off the west coast of Vancouver Island affect survival of herring and their principal predator, Pacific hake, which also exhibits a marked 16-year oscillation in abundance. Thus the dynamics of the herring stock are modulated by a combination of climate and predator forcing. Much of the interannual variation in herring growth is centered around the 5-year (moderate ENSO period) and 16-year (strong ENSO period) ocean climate oscillations and the 16-year recruitment oscillation.

Integrating varve and tree-ring time series for southern California climate reconstruction: a 20th century outlook [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Our objective is to combine terrestrial and oceanic records for reconstructing West Coast climate. Tree rings and marine laminated sediments provide high-resolution, accurately dated proxy data on the variability of climate and on the productivity of the ocean and have been used to reconstruct precipitation, temperature, sea level pressure, primary productivity, and other large-scale parameters. We present here the latest Santa Barbara basin varve chronology for the twentieth century as well as a newly developed tree-ring chronology for Torrey pine.

An analysis of the cooperative mechano-sensitive feedback between intracellular signaling, focal adhesion development, and stress fiber contractility

Cells communicate with their external environment via focal adhesions and generate activation signals that in turn trigger the activity of the intracellular contractile machinery. These signals can be triggered by mechanical loading that gives rise to a cooperative feedback loop among signaling, focal adhesion formation, and cytoskeletal contractility, which in turn equilibrates with the applied mechanical loads. We devise a signaling model that couples stress fiber contractility and mechano-sensitive focal adhesion models to complete this above mentioned feedback loop. The signaling model is based on a biochemical pathway where IP3 molecules are generated when focal adhesions grow. These IP3 molecules diffuse through the cytosol leading to the opening of ion channels that disgorge Ca2+ from the endoplasmic reticulum leading to the activation of the actin/myosin contractile machinery. A simple numerical example is presented where a one-dimensional cell adhered to a rigid substrate is pulled at one end, and the evolution of the stress fiber activation signal, stress fiber concentrations, and focal adhesion distributions are investigated. We demonstrate that while it is sufficient to approximate the activation signal as spatially uniform due to the rapid diffusion of the IP3 through the cytosol, the level of the activation signal is sensitive to the rate of application of the mechanical loads. This suggests that ad hoc signaling models may not be able to capture the mechanical response of cells to a wide range of mechanical loading events. © 2011 American Society of Mechanical Engineers.