936 resultados para Chance constraints
Resumo:
Several theories assume that successful team coordination is partly based on knowledge that helps anticipating individual contributions necessary in a situational task. It has been argued that a more ecological perspective needs to be considered in contexts evolving dynamically and unpredictably. In football, defensive plays are usually coordinated according to strategic concepts spanning all members and large areas of the playfield. On the other hand, fewer people are involved in offensive plays as these are less projectable and strongly constrained by ecological characteristics. The aim of this study is to test the effects of ecological constraints and player knowledge on decision making in offensive game scenarios. It is hypothesized that both knowledge about team members and situational constraints will influence decisional processes. Effects of situational constraints are expected to be of higher magnitude. Two teams playing in the fourth league of the Swiss Football Federation participate in the study. Forty customized game scenarios were developed based on the coaches’ information about player positions and game strategies. Each player was shown in ball possession four times. Participants were asked to take the perspective of the player on the ball and to choose a passing destination and a recipient. Participants then rated domain specific strengths (e.g., technical skills, game intelligence) of each of their teammates. Multilevel models for categorical dependent variables (team members) will be specified. Player knowledge (rated skills) and ecological constraints (operationalized as each players’ proximity and availability for ball reception) are included as predictor variables. Data are currently being collected. Results will yield effects of parameters that are stable across situations as well as of variable parameters that are bound to situational context. These will enable insight into the degree to which ecological constraints and more enduring team knowledge are involved in decisional processes aimed at coordinating interpersonal action.
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The Ivrea–Verbano Zone (IVZ), northern Italy, exposes an attenuated section through the Permian lower crust that records high-temperature metamorphism under lower crustal conditions and a protracted history of extension and exhumation associated partly with the Jurassic opening of the Alpine Tethys ocean. This study presents SHRIMP U–Pb geochronology of rutile from seven granulite facies metapelites from the base of the IVZ, collected from locations spanning ~35 km along the strike of Paleozoic fabrics. Rutile crystallised during Permian high-temperature metamorphism and anatexis, yet all samples give Jurassic rutile U–Pb ages that record cooling through 650–550 °C. Rutile age distributions are dominated by a peak at ~160 Ma, with a subordinate peak at ~175 Ma. Both ~160 and ~175 Ma age populations show excellent agreement between samples, indicating that the two distinctive cooling stages they record were synchronous on a regional scale. The ~175 Ma population is interpreted to record cooling in the footwall of rift-related faults and shear zones, for which widespread activity in the Lower Jurassic has been documented along the western margin of the Adriatic plate. The ~160 Ma age population postdates the activity of all known rift-related structures within the Adriatic margin, but coincides with extensive gabbroic magmatism and exhumation of sub-continental mantle to the floor of the Alpine Tethys, west of the Ivrea Zone. We propose that this ~160 Ma early post-rift age population records regional cooling following episodic heating of the distal Adriatic margin, likely related to extreme lithospheric thinning and associated advection of the asthenosphere to shallow levels. The partial preservation of the ~175 Ma age cluster suggests that the post-rift (~160 Ma) heating pulse was of short duration. The regional consistency of the data presented here, which is in contrast to many other thermochronometers in the IVZ, demonstrates the value of the rutile U–Pb technique for probing the thermal evolution of high-grade metamorphic terrains. In the IVZ, a significant decoupling between Zr-in-rutile temperatures and U–Pb ages of rutile is observed, with the two systems recording events ~120 Ma apart.
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Context. One of the main aims of the ESA Rosetta mission is to study the origin of the solar system by exploring comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko at close range. Aims. In this paper we discuss the origin and evolution of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko in relation to that of comets in general and in the framework of current solar system formation models. Methods. We use data from the OSIRIS scientific cameras as basic constraints. In particular, we discuss the overall bi-lobate shape and the presence of key geological features, such as layers and fractures. We also treat the problem of collisional evolution of comet nuclei by a particle-in-a-box calculation for an estimate of the probability of survival for 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko during the early epochs of the solar system. Results. We argue that the two lobes of the 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko nucleus are derived from two distinct objects that have formed a contact binary via a gentle merger. The lobes are separate bodies, though sufficiently similar to have formed in the same environment. An estimate of the collisional rate in the primordial, trans-planetary disk shows that most comets of similar size to 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko are likely collisional fragments, although survival of primordial planetesimals cannot be excluded. Conclusions. A collisional origin of the contact binary is suggested, and the low bulk density of the aggregate and abundance of volatile species show that a very gentle merger must have occurred. We thus consider two main scenarios: the primordial accretion of planetesimals, and the re-accretion of fragments after an energetic impact onto a larger parent body. We point to the primordial signatures exhibited by 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko and other comet nuclei as critical tests of the collisional evolution.
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The consumption capital asset pricing model is the standard economic model used to capture stock market behavior. However, empirical tests have pointed out to its inability to account quantitatively for the high average rate of return and volatility of stocks over time for plausible parameter values. Recent research has suggested that the consumption of stockholders is more strongly correlated with the performance of the stock market than the consumption of non-stockholders. We model two types of agents, non-stockholders with standard preferences and stock holders with preferences that incorporate elements of the prospect theory developed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979). In addition to consumption, stockholders consider fluctuations in their financial wealth explicitly when making decisions. Data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics are used to calibrate the labor income processes of the two types of agents. Each agent faces idiosyncratic shocks to his labor income as well as aggregate shocks to the per-share dividend but markets are incomplete and agents cannot hedge consumption risks completely. In addition, consumers face both borrowing and short-sale constraints. Our results show that in equilibrium, agents hold different portfolios. Our model is able to generate a time-varying risk premium of about 5.5% while maintaining a low risk free rate, thus suggesting a plausible explanation for the equity premium puzzle reported by Mehra and Prescott (1985).
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En el presente trabajo reflexionaremos sobre la experiencia cultural contemporánea transitada por un grupo de adultos mayores. Estamos refiriéndonos al taller de Murga del Consejo Municipal de Tercera Edad de la Municipalidad de La Plata. El mismo se inició en el año 2006, fortaleciéndose durante el 2007. Participan aproximadamente 20 adultos mayores de entre 60 y 85 años. El Director es Fernando Riveros, un reconocido murguero platense. Analizar la experiencia desde las categorías de edaísmo, prácticas sociales e identidades nos permiten dar cuenta de los cambios producidos en la "naturaleza" de los vínculos sociales y de las prácticas de los adultos mayores. Este trabajo se inscribe en pos de aportar a la "batalla cultural" contra los discursos que sitúan a los mayores en situación de homogeneidad y vulnerabilidad.
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Observation-based reconstructions of sea surface temperature from relatively stable periods in the past, such as the Last Glacial Maximum, represent an important means of constraining climate sensitivity and evaluating model simulations. The first quantitative global reconstruction of sea surface temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum was developed by the Climate Long-Range Investigation, Mapping and Prediction (CLIMAP) project in the 1970s and 1980s. Since that time, several shortcomings of that earlier effort have become apparent. Here we present an updated synthesis of sea surface temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum, rigorously defined as the period between 23 and 19 thousand years before present, from the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface (MARGO) project. We integrate microfossil and geochemical reconstructions of surface temperatures and include assessments of the reliability of individual records. Our reconstruction reveals the presence of large longitudinal gradients in sea surface temperature in all of the ocean basins, in contrast to the simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum climate available at present.
Resumo:
En el presente trabajo reflexionaremos sobre la experiencia cultural contemporánea transitada por un grupo de adultos mayores. Estamos refiriéndonos al taller de Murga del Consejo Municipal de Tercera Edad de la Municipalidad de La Plata. El mismo se inició en el año 2006, fortaleciéndose durante el 2007. Participan aproximadamente 20 adultos mayores de entre 60 y 85 años. El Director es Fernando Riveros, un reconocido murguero platense. Analizar la experiencia desde las categorías de edaísmo, prácticas sociales e identidades nos permiten dar cuenta de los cambios producidos en la "naturaleza" de los vínculos sociales y de las prácticas de los adultos mayores. Este trabajo se inscribe en pos de aportar a la "batalla cultural" contra los discursos que sitúan a los mayores en situación de homogeneidad y vulnerabilidad.
Resumo:
En el presente trabajo reflexionaremos sobre la experiencia cultural contemporánea transitada por un grupo de adultos mayores. Estamos refiriéndonos al taller de Murga del Consejo Municipal de Tercera Edad de la Municipalidad de La Plata. El mismo se inició en el año 2006, fortaleciéndose durante el 2007. Participan aproximadamente 20 adultos mayores de entre 60 y 85 años. El Director es Fernando Riveros, un reconocido murguero platense. Analizar la experiencia desde las categorías de edaísmo, prácticas sociales e identidades nos permiten dar cuenta de los cambios producidos en la "naturaleza" de los vínculos sociales y de las prácticas de los adultos mayores. Este trabajo se inscribe en pos de aportar a la "batalla cultural" contra los discursos que sitúan a los mayores en situación de homogeneidad y vulnerabilidad.
Resumo:
Ein interdisziplinäres und interaktives Medienprojekt von und für junge Menschen zum Thema "Regionale Klimaänderungen". Der Klimawandel ist eines der wichtigsten Zukunftsthemen und Handlungsfelder unserer Zivilgesellschaft, mit weltweiter Relevanz und regionalen Auswirkungen. Die jungen Menschen heute sind diejenigen, die in Zukunft von den Folgen der Klimaveränderungen besonders stark betroffen sein werden. Sie sind aber auch gleichzeitig gefordert zu erkennen, dass wir andere Lebensstile finden und Vermeidungs- und Anpassungsstrategien jetzt auf den Weg bringen müssen, da diese Maßnahmen nur sehr langfristig wirken. Es liegt noch zu wenig im Erfahrungs- und Erlebenshorizont vieler junger Menschen, Maßnahmen zu Klimaschutz und -anpassung als wichtige Bausteine für die eigene Zukunft zu begreifen und aktiv als Thema anzunehmen. Daher bedarf es einer frühen und intensiven Auseinandersetzung mit dieser gesellschaftlichen Herausforderung als Teil der eigenen Lebenswirklichkeit. Zielgruppe des Medienprojektes war hier die heranwachsende Generation im Ausbildungsalter (16-30 Jahre). Die Helmholtz-Klimainitiative REKLIM (Regionale Klimaänderungen) und die DEKRA Hochschule Berlin haben sich 2013 gemeinsam auf den Weg gemacht, den Prozess der Auseinandersetzung und der Bewusstseinsbildung für die Bedeutung dieses Themas für junge Menschen in einem gemeinsamen interdisziplinären Projekt anzustoßen (www.reklim-medienprojekt.de). Gewählt für die Umsetzung dieses Projektes wurde die internationale REKLIM Konferenz "Our Climate - Our Future, Regional Perspectives on a global Challenge", die vom 6. - 9. Oktober 2014 in Berlin stattfand. Das ins Leben gerufene Medienprojekt zu dieser wissenschaftlichen Konferenz vereinte die Expertisen beider Projektpartner, um das Thema "Regionale Klimaänderungen" von jungen Menschen für junge Menschen zu adressieren und sie in ihrer eigenen Sprache und Mediennutzung zu erreichen. Insgesamt konnten mehr als 80 Studierende aus den Studiengängen Fernsehen und Film, Journalismus und Medienmanagement der DEKRA Hochschule Berlin in diesem einzigartigen Projekt in die Wissenschaftskonferenz eingebunden werden. Mit selbst konzipierten und produzierten Medienprodukten (u.a. einem Blog, mehreren Dokumentarfilmen, Viralen Videos sowie täglichen Berichterstattungen) für die Öffentlichkeit sollten die regionalen Aspekte des Klimawandels, die in der Helmholtz-Klimainitiative REKLIM wissenschaftlich erarbeitet werden, der Öffentlichkeit zugänglich gemacht werden. Den Studierenden kam dabei die wichtige Rolle zu, die wissenschaftlichen Inhalte in eine filmkünstlerische, journalistische und junge Sprache zu transformieren, mit unvoreingenommener Perspektive auf die Probleme zu schauen und die Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftler dabei gleichsam mit einzubinden. So ist in dem Projekt ein wichtiger Dialog- und Lernprozess zwischen den verschiedenen Disziplinen entstanden. Darüber hinaus bot die Zusammenarbeit für die Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftler des REKLIM-Verbunds und der beteiligten Zentren eine einmalige Chance, eine mediale Öffentlichkeit herzustellen, die es in dieser Form vermutlich für eine derartige Konferenz noch nicht gegeben hat. Für die Studierenden der DEKRA Hochschule bedeutete das Medienprojekt wichtige Erfahrungen in der projektbezogenen Arbeit mit einem externen Partner zu einem gesellschaftsrelevanten Thema zu sammeln. Das REKLIM-Medienprojekt verfolgt die Ziele: - in einem interdisziplinären und interaktiven Projekt junge Menschen zur Auseinandersetzung mit dem Klimawandel und zur Bewusstseinsbildung für die Bedeutung der regionalen Klimaänderungen anzuregen, - durch die von den Studierenden entwickelten Medienprodukte eine Verbindung zwischen den wissenschaftlichen Arbeiten und einer breiten Öffentlichkeit zu ermöglichen, - einen Dialogprozess zwischen Wissenschaftler/-innen und Studierenden zu initiieren, - wissenschaftliche Inhalte über künstlerische und mediale Transferprozesse anschaulich und ansprechend einer breiten Öffentlichkeit, insbesondere jungen Menschen, näherzubringen, um sie für das Thema Klimawandel und seine regionalen Auswirkungen zu sensibilisieren, - einen Dialog- und Lernprozess zwischen den verschiedenen Disziplinen anzuregen.
Resumo:
Lake Baikal, the world's most voluminous freshwater lake, has experienced unprecedented warming during the last decades. A uniquely diverse amphipod fauna inhabits the littoral zone and can serve as a model system to identify the role of thermal tolerance under climate change. This study aimed to identify sublethal thermal constraints in two of the most abundant endemic Baikal amphipods, Eulimnogammarus verrucosus and Eulimnogammarus cyaneus, and Gammarus lacustris, a ubiquitous gammarid of the Holarctic. As the latter is only found in some shallow isolated bays of the lake, we further addressed the question whether rising temperatures could promote the widespread invasion of this non-endemic species into the littoral zone. Animals were exposed to gradual temperature increases (4 week, 0.8 °C/d; 24 h, 1 °C/h) starting from the reported annual mean temperature of the Baikal littoral (6 °C). Within the framework of oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT), we used a nonlinear regression approach to determine the points at which the changing temperature-dependence of relevant physiological processes indicates the onset of limitation. Limitations in ventilation representing the first limits of thermal tolerance (pejus (= "getting worse") temperatures (Tp)) were recorded at 10.6 (95% confidence interval; 9.5, 11.7), 19.1 (17.9, 20.2), and 21.1 (19.8, 22.4) °C in E. verrucosus, E. cyaneus, and G. lacustris, respectively. Field observations revealed that E. verrucosus retreated from the upper littoral to deeper and cooler waters once its Tp was surpassed, identifying Tp as the ecological thermal boundary. Constraints in oxygen consumption at higher than critical temperatures (Tc) led to an exponential increase in mortality in all species. Exposure to short-term warming resulted in higher threshold values, consistent with a time dependence of thermal tolerance. In conclusion, species-specific limits to oxygen supply capacity are likely key in the onset of constraining (beyond pejus) and then life-threatening (beyond critical) conditions. Ecological consequences of these limits are mediated through behavioral plasticity in E. verrucosus. However, similar upper thermal limits in E. cyaneus (endemic, Baikal) and G. lacustris (ubiquitous, Holarctic) indicate that the potential invader G. lacustris would not necessarily benefit from rising temperatures. Secondary effects of increasing temperatures remain to be investigated.
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We derive tropospheric column BrO during the ARCTAS and ARCPAC field campaigns in spring 2008 using retrievals of total column BrO from the satellite UV nadir sensors OMI and GOME-2 using a radiative transfer model and stratospheric column BrO from a photochemical simulation. We conduct a comprehensive comparison of satellite-derived tropospheric BrO column to aircraft in-situ observations of BrO and related species. The aircraft profiles reveal that tropospheric BrO, when present during April 2008, was distributed over a broad range of altitudes rather than being confined to the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Perturbations to the total column resulting from tropospheric BrO are the same magnitude as perturbations due to longitudinal variations in the stratospheric component, so proper accounting of the stratospheric signal is essential for accurate determination of satellite-derived tropospheric BrO. We find reasonably good agreement between satellite-derived tropospheric BrO and columns found using aircraft in-situ BrO profiles, particularly when satellite radiances were obtained over bright surfaces (albedo >0.7), for solar zenith angle <80° and clear sky conditions. The rapid activation of BrO due to surface processes (the bromine explosion) is apparent in both the OMI and GOME-2 based tropospheric columns. The wide orbital swath of OMI allows examination of the evolution of tropospheric BrO on about hourly time intervals near the pole. Low surface pressure, strong wind, and high PBL height are associated with an observed BrO activation event, supporting the notion of bromine activation by high winds over snow.