Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Aircraft Operating Costs in Structural Design Optimization

The paper focuses on the development of an aircraft design optimization methodology that models uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the tradeoff between manufacturing cost, structural requirements, andaircraft direct operating cost.Specifically,ratherthanonlylooking atmanufacturingcost, direct operatingcost is also consideredintermsof the impact of weight on fuel burn, in addition to the acquisition cost to be borne by the operator. Ultimately, there is a tradeoff between driving design according to minimal weight and driving it according to reduced manufacturing cost. Theanalysis of cost is facilitated withagenetic-causal cost-modeling methodology,andthe structural analysis is driven by numerical expressions of appropriate failure modes that use ESDU International reference data. However, a key contribution of the paper is to investigate the modeling of uncertainty and to perform a sensitivity analysis to investigate the robustness of the optimization methodology. Stochastic distributions are used to characterize manufacturing cost distributions, andMonteCarlo analysis is performed in modeling the impact of uncertainty on the cost modeling. The results are then used in a sensitivity analysis that incorporates the optimization methodology. In addition to investigating manufacturing cost variance, the sensitivity of the optimization to fuel burn cost and structural loading are also investigated. It is found that the consideration of manufacturing cost does make an impact and results in a different optimal design configuration from that delivered by the minimal-weight method. However, it was shown that at lower applied loads there is a threshold fuel burn cost at which the optimization process needs to reduce weight, and this threshold decreases with increasing load. The new optimal solution results in lower direct operating cost with a predicted savings of 640=m2 of fuselage skin over the life, relating to a rough order-of-magnitude direct operating cost savings of $500,000 for the fuselage alone of a small regional jet. Moreover, it was found through the uncertainty analysis that the principle was not sensitive to cost variance, although the margins do change.

High density mangrove plantation enhances surface accretion, surface elevation change, and tree survival in coastal areas susceptible to sea-level rise

Survival, growth, above ground biomass accumulation, soil surface elevation dynamics and nitrogen accumulation in accreted sediments were studied in experimental treatments planted with four different densities (6.96, 3.26, 1.93 and 0.95 seedlings m-2) of the mangrove Rhizophora mucronata in Puttalam Lagoon, Sri Lanka. Measurements were taken over a period of 1171 days and were compared with those from unplanted controls. Trees at the lowest density showed significantly reduced survival, whilst measures of individual tree growth did not differ significantly among treatments. Rates of surface sediment accretion (means ± S.E.) were 13.0 (±1.3), 10.5 (±0.9), 8.4 (±0.3), 6.9 (±0.5) and 5.7 (±0.3) mm yr-1 at planting densities of 6.96, 3.26, 1.93, 0.95, and 0 (unplanted control) seedlings m-2, respectively, showing highly significant differences among treatments. Mean (± S.E.) rates of surface elevation change were much lower than rates of accretion at 2.8 (±0.2), 1.6 (±0.1), 1.1 (±0.2), 0.6 (±0.2) and -0.3 (±0.1) mm yr-1 for 6.96, 3.26, 1.93, 0.95, and 0 seedlings m-2, respectively. All planted treatments appeared to accumulate greater nitrogen concentrations in the sediment compared to the unplanted control, and suggests one potential causal mechanism for the facilitatory effects observed; high densities of plants potentially contribute to the accretion of greater amounts of nutrient rich sediment. While this potential process needs further study, this study demonstrated how higher densities of mangroves enhance rates of sediment accretion and surface elevation, processes that may be crucial in mangrove ecosystem adaptation to sea level rise. There was no evidence that increasing plant density evoked a trade-off with growth and survival of the planted trees. Rather facilitatory effects enhanced survival at high densities, suggesting that local land managers may be able to take advantage of plantation densities to help mitigate sea-level rise effects by encouraging positive soil surface elevation increment, and perhaps even greater nutrient retention to promote mangrove growth and ameliorate nearshore eutrophication in tropical island environments.

Inductive reasoning and semantic cognition: More than just different names for the same thing?

We describe evidence that certain inductive phenomena are associated with IQ, that different inductive phenomena emerge at different ages, and that the effects of causal knowledge on induction are decreased under conditions of memory load. On the basis of this evidence we argue that there is more to inductive reasoning than semantic cognition.

Who is susceptible to conjunction fallacies in category-based induction?

Recent evidence suggests that the conjunction fallacy observed in people's probabilistic reasoning is also to be found in their evaluations of inductive argument strength. We presented 130 participants with materials likely to produce a conjunction fallacy either by virtue of a shared categorical or a causal relationship between the categories in the argument. We also took a measure of participants' cognitive ability. We observed conjunction fallacies overall with both sets of materials but found an association with ability for the categorical materials only. Our results have implications for accounts of individual differences in reasoning, for the relevance theory of induction, and for the recent claim that causal knowledge is important in inductive reasoning.

Young children's reasoning about the order of past events

Four studies are reported that employed an object location task to assess temporal-causal reasoning. In Experiments 1-3, successfully locating the object required a retrospective consideration of the order in which two events had occurred. In Experiment 1, 5- but not 4-year-olds were successful; 4-year-olds also failed to perform at above-chance levels in modified versions of the task in Experiments 2 and 3. However, in Experiment 4, 3-year-olds were successful when they were able to see the object being placed first in one location and then in the other, rather than having to consider retrospectively the sequence in which two events had happened. The results suggest that reasoning about the causal significance of the temporal order of events may not be fully developed before 5 years. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Zur kognitiven Konstruktion von (Un-)Gerechtigkeit militärischer Gewalt: Die moralische Beurteilung des Kosovo-Kriegs

With reference to the Kosovo war, we examined how the (un-)justness of military intervention is cognitively constructed. Four types of reinterpretation were hypothesized to relate to positive evaluation of the intervention: minimisation of negative consequences of NATO's intervention, denial of responsibility of the Western countries for the war, blame of Yugoslavia, and justification of the intervention through positive motives. As determinants of evaluation of the war, belief in a just world, militarism-pacifism, authoritarianism, and diffuse political support were taken into account. Hypotheses were tested with 165 university students using structural equation modelling. Consistent with our assumptions, the four types of reinterpretation related strongly to positive evaluation of the intervention, showing their relevance with regard to military intervention. Further, the assessed political attitudes influenced evaluation of the war while, contrary to predictions, belief in a just world did not. The causal status of the reinterpretations and the interplay of belief in a just world and political attitudes are discussed.

Hierarchical coordination of periodic genes in the cell cycle of Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Background: Gene networks are a representation of molecular interactions among genes or products thereof and, hence, are forming causal networks. Despite intense studies during the last years most investigations focus so far on inferential methods to reconstruct gene networks from experimental data or on their structural properties, e.g., degree distributions. Their structural analysis to gain functional insights into organizational principles of, e.g., pathways remains so far under appreciated.

Role of behaviour in biological invasions and species distributions; lessons from interactions between the invasive Gammarus pulex and the native G-duebeni (Crustacea : Amphipoda)

In attempting to understand the distributions of both introduced species and the native species on which they impact, there is a growing trend to integrate studies of behaviour with more traditional life history/ecological approaches. The question of what mechanisms drive the displacement of the freshwater amphipod Gammarus duebeni by the often introduced G pulex is presented as a case study Patterns of displacement are well documented throughout Europe, but the speed and direction of displacement between these species can be varied. From early studies proposing interspecific competition as causal in these patterns, I review research progress to date. I show there has been no evidence for interspecific competition operating, other than the field patterns themselves, a somewhat tautological argument. Rather, the increased recognition of behavioural attributes with respect to the cannibalistic and predatory nature of these species gave rise to a series of studies unravelling the processes driving field patterns. Both species engage in 'intraguild predation' (IGP), with moulting females particularly vulnerable to predation by congeneric males. G pulex is more able both to engage in and avoid this interaction with G duebeni. However, several factors mediate the strength and asymmetry of this IGP, some biotic (e.g. parasitism) and others abiotic (e.g. water chemistry). Further, a number of alternative hypotheses that may account for the displacement (hybridization; parasite transmission) have been tested and rejected. While interspecific competition has been modelled mathematically and found to be a weak interaction relative to IGP, mechanisms of competition between these Gammarus species remain largely untested empirically. Since IGP may be finely balanced in some circumstances, I conclude that the challenge to detect interspecific competition remains and we require assessment of its role, if any, in the interaction between these species. Appreciation of behavioural attributes and their mediation should allow us to more fully understand, and perhaps predict, species introductions and resultant distributions.

Gender differences in aggressive behaviour in convict cichlids

Males and females of many species engage in agonistic encounters. However, differing selection pressures on each sex are predicted to result in sex differences in aggressive behaviour during contests. Comparing male and female intrasexual contests can yield intriguing differences, shedding light on the forces shaping the use of particular aggressive tactics. We investigated whether fundamental gender-related differences in aggression, not explained by current parental role, are present in convict cichlids, Amatitlania nigrofasciata. Intrasexual agonistic encounters between isolated males and between isolated females not previously paired to a breeding partner were staged. Using this approach we first tested for behavioural differences between the sexes. Second, using a novel startle technique aimed at probing motivation to fight, we tested for gender-related differences in aggressive motivation. Third, we examined whether size, rather than gender, plays a role in determining the tactics used during contests. In addressing these aims we found: (1) females used more frontal display and biting, and spent more time in close proximity to their opponent, whereas males used more lateral display and tail beating than females during agonistic encounters; (2) there was no difference in the response of male or female convict cichlids to a startling stimulus aimed at probing motivation to fight; and (3) the addition of focal weight and length as possible covariates had no significant effect on the analyses. Possible causal and functional reasons for these gender-related differences in fight tactics are discussed. (C) 2009 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expression of multidrug resistance markers ABCB1 (MDR-1/P-gp) and ABCC1 (MRP-1) in renal cell carcinoma.

Background Renal cell carcinoma patients respond poorly to conventional chemotherapy, this unresponsiveness may be attributable to multidrug resistance (MDR). The mechanisms of MDR in renal cancer are not fully understood and the specific contribution of ABC transporter proteins which have been implicated in the chemoresistance of various cancers has not been fully defined in this disease. Methods In this retrospective study the expression of two of these transporter efflux pumps, namely MDR-1 P-gp (ABCB1) and MRP-1 (ABCC1) were studied by immunohistochemistry in archival material from 95 renal cell carcinoma patients. Results In the first study investigating MDR-1 P-gp and MRP-1 protein expression patterns in renal cell carcinoma patients, high levels of expression of both efflux pumps are observed with 100% of tumours studied showing MDR-1 P-gp and MRP-1 positivity. Conclusion Although these findings do not prove a causal role, the high frequency of tumours expressing these efflux pumps suggests that they may be important contributors to the chemoresistance of this tumour type.

Revealing differences in gene network inference algorithms on the network level by ensemble methods

Motivation: The inference of regulatory networks from large-scale expression data holds great promise because of the potentially causal interpretation of these networks. However, due to the difficulty to establish reliable methods based on observational data there is so far only incomplete knowledge about possibilities and limitations of such inference methods in this context.

Results: In this article, we conduct a statistical analysis investigating differences and similarities of four network inference algorithms, ARACNE, CLR, MRNET and RN, with respect to local network-based measures. We employ ensemble methods allowing to assess the inferability down to the level of individual edges. Our analysis reveals the bias of these inference methods with respect to the inference of various network components and, hence, provides guidance in the interpretation of inferred regulatory networks from expression data. Further, as application we predict the total number of regulatory interactions in human B cells and hypothesize about the role of Myc and its targets regarding molecular information processing.

Restraing Regulatory Capture? Anglo America, Crisis Politics and Trajectories of Change in Global Financial Governance

A growing number of respected commentators now argue that regulatory capture of public agencies and public policy by leading banks was one of the main causal factors behind the financial crisis of 2007–2009, resulting in a permissive regulatory environment. This regulatory environment placed a faith in banks own internal risk models, contributed to pro-cyclical behaviour and turned a blind eye to excessive risk taking. The article argues that a form of ‘multi-level regulatory capture’ characterized the global financial architecture prior to the crisis. Simultaneously, regulatory capture fed off, but also nourished the financial boom, in a fashion that mirrored the life cycle of the boom itself. Minimizing future financial booms and crises will require continuous, conscious and explicit efforts to restrain financial regulatory capture now and into the future. The article assesses the extent to which this has been achieved in current global financial governance reform efforts and highlights some of the persistent difficulties that will continue to hamper efforts to restrain regulatory capture. The evidence concerning the extent to which regulatory capture is being effectively restrained is somewhat mixed, and where it is happening it is largely unintentional and accidental. Recent reforms have overlooked the political causes of the crisis and have failed to focus explicitly or systematically on regulatory capture.

Mapping NGO Competency to Reduce Human Vulnerability in Post-disaster Communities: Comparing Strategies in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh

Natural hazards trigger disasters, the scale of which is largely determined by vulnerability. Developing countries suffer the most from disasters due to various conditions of vulnerability which exist and there is an opportunity after disasters to take mitigative action. NGOs implementing post-disaster rehabilitation projects must be able to address the issues causing communities to live at risk of disaster and therefore must build dynamic capacity, capabilities and competencies, enabling them to operate in unstable environments. This research is built upon a theoretical framework of dynamic competency established by combining elements of disaster management, strategic management and project management theory. A number of NGOs which have implemented reconstruction and rehabilitation projects both in Sri Lanka following the Asian Tsunami and Bangladesh following Cyclone Sidr are being investigated in great depth using a causal mapping procedure. ‘Event’ specific maps have been developed for each organization in each disaster. This data will be analysed with a view to discovering the strategies which lead to vulnerability reduction in post-disaster communities and the competencies that NGOs must possess in order to achieve favourable outcomes. It is hypothesized that by building organizational capacity, capabilities and competencies to be dynamic in nature, while focusing on a more emergent strategic approach, with emphasis on adaptive capability and innovation, NGOs will be better equipped to contribute to sustainable community development through reconstruction. We believe that through this study it will be possible to glean a new understanding of social processes that emerge within community rehabilitation projects.

AGEs and Diabetic Retinopathy

The pathogenesis of diabetic retinopathy is multifactorial, and a range of hyperglycemia-linked pathways have been implicated in the initiation and progression of this condition. All cells in the retina are affected by the diabetic milieu, and in view of such disease and tissue complexity, it is unlikely that any single process is solely responsible for retinal pathophysiology. Nevertheless, establishing causal mechanisms remains an important research goal. This review concentrates on the formation of advanced glycation end products (AGEs) and the role they play in diabetic retinopathy. Perspective is provided on advanced glycation in the retina, the impact that this process has on retinal cell function, and how it relates to other pathogenic pathways. Emphasis is also placed the modulatory role of the receptor for AGEs (RAGE) and how its activation could evoke retinal inflammatory disease. Further research is needed to achieve a clear understanding of the cellular and molecular processes that underpin diabetic retinopathy's initiation and progression. Such advances in basic mechanisms may lead to effective treatments that can prevent progression of retinopathy from the point of the diagnosis of diabetes to sight-threatening proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) and diabetic macular edema (DME).

When does national identification lead to the rejection of immigrants? Cross-sectional and longitudinal evidence for the role of essentialist in-group definitions

Two studies were carried out in England to investigate the role of essentialist national group definitions in determining the effect of national identification on prejudice towards immigrants, and asylum seekers in particular. It was expected that the relationship between national identification and prejudice would depend on the degree to which participants endorse an essentialist (`ethnic') definition of their nationality. Consistent with this, Study 1 (N=154) found that national identification is associated with negativity towards asylum seekers only among individuals who endorse an essentialist conception of the group, and shows no significant association with prejudice among those who reject such a conception. Study 2 (N=219) used a longitudinal design conducted over 6 weeks, allowing cross-lagged analysis of causality between essentialism, identification, and behavioural intentions towards asylum seekers. A causal effect of essentialism on willingness to support a group acting against asylum seekers was observed, with no significant causal effect in the reverse direction. The reverse causal direction was observed in the case of support for a group seeking to support asylum seekers, with intended behaviours determining essentialism. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of group definitions in the study of in-group affiliations and prejudice.