Kalman Filter Algorithm for Rating and Prediction in Basketball

The Thesis presents a state-space model for a basketball league and a Kalman filter algorithm for the estimation of the state of the league. In the state-space model, each of the basketball teams is associated with a rating that represents its strength compared to the other teams. The ratings are assumed to evolve in time following a stochastic process with independent Gaussian increments. The estimation of the team ratings is based on the observed game scores that are assumed to depend linearly on the true strengths of the teams and independent Gaussian noise. The team ratings are estimated using a recursive Kalman filter algorithm that produces least squares optimal estimates for the team strengths and predictions for the scores of the future games. Additionally, if the Gaussianity assumption holds, the predictions given by the Kalman filter maximize the likelihood of the observed scores. The team ratings allow probabilistic inference about the ranking of the teams and their relative strengths as well as about the teams’ winning probabilities in future games. The predictions about the winners of the games are correct 65-70% of the time. The team ratings explain 16% of the random variation observed in the game scores. Furthermore, the winning probabilities given by the model are concurrent with the observed scores. The state-space model includes four independent parameters that involve the variances of noise terms and the home court advantage observed in the scores. The Thesis presents the estimation of these parameters using the maximum likelihood method as well as using other techniques. The Thesis also gives various example analyses related to the American professional basketball league, i.e., National Basketball Association (NBA), and regular seasons played in year 2005 through 2010. Additionally, the season 2009-2010 is discussed in full detail, including the playoffs.

Influence of microstructure on the wear of grinding media

Owing to the complexity of the wear process, high stress grinding abrasion is quite different from two-body abrasive wear. Reported data on two-body abrasive wear reveal that the wear decreases with an increase in steel hardness. This relationship can be established without having to consider the microstructure of the steel grinding medium. However, it is known that hardness cannot be directly employed to predict the wear of steel balls under three-body grinding abrasion, as occurs during dry grinding of ores in ball mills. The present work suggests that the wear behaviour of grinding balls can be classified according to the microstructural family to which they belong. Thus, in this work on AISI 52100 steel, the separate groups of microstructures were spheroidite—pearlite, bainite, tempered martensite and martensite with retained austenite. It appears that wear behaviour of the first three groups follows the same trend as that observed for two-body wear. The data suggest that an optimum level of retained austenite could improve the wear resistance of microstructures containing martensite.

Ühis- ning erijooni Soome ja Eesti Kaitseliitude puhkpillimuusikas aastatel 1925-1934.

This study focuses on the similarities and differences between the Estonian Defence League and the Finnish Civil Guard brass bands during the period 1925-1934. By 1934 this paramilitary volunteer state defence organisation had reached stability in its development, such that social, cultural and patriotic education of the people - with the help of brass band music among other means- had acquired a significant role, in addition to prioritised military and sports activities. The study begins with introductory paragraphs I and II, which describes the founding of the organisations, their participation in the Wars of Independence and their subsequent peace time activities as well as their representation in the media at the time. The thesis also briefly introduces military music in Finland and Estonia, as well as describes the influence of military music on the Defence League brass bands. The period under review includes the global economic crisis, which undoubtedly concerned the Defence League/Civil Guard and the Lapua and War of Independence movements, which greatly affected the apolitical principles of the organisations. The main emphasis of the thesis is the Defence League/Civil Guard brass band`s musical activities in two counties - Etelä-Pohjanmaa and Pärnumaa, while also including a general overview of the Estonian Defence League brass bands´ activities. One of the most important benefits of the thesis is its introduction of the brass band repertoire in use at the time, which was played by both professional and as well as amateur orchestras the latter of which also included the brass bands of the Defence League/Civil Guard and the Fire Services. Brass band music held a secondary, yet significant position in the Defence League/Civil Guard, where the orchestra as a musical grouping was obliged to perform not only at inner-organisational and national celebrations but also at any event requiring brass band music, such as song festivals, singing days, and other local cultural events. The professional preparation of the band conductors at the beginning of the period under review was not well specialised, but the training of the Defence League/Civil Defence brass band conductors was carried out regularly in both republic according to the opportunities and dedicated training programmes available. The musicians of the Defence League/Civil Defence brass bands were at the same time members of the military organisations as well as amateur musicians, which placed upon them extra demands - they were under close public supervision in all situations. Based on the principle of chronology it appeared that both Finnish and Estonian respective organisations´ brass bands used the gradually improving economic situation for purchasing musical instruments, obtaining repertoire and training musicians/conductors. Despite the fact that brass band music in the Defence League/Civil Guard was considered an amateur activity and a hobby, the more far-reaching objective of the organisation was to resemble the Defence Forces´ orchestras as closely as possible in all aspects. The Defence League/Civil Guard brass band music definitely had a significant influence on forming, developing and enriching music life in both republics. The reviewed nine-year period introduced the musical activities of the Defence League/Civil Guard against the background of the everyday life of the organisation and the need for brass band music and its continuity in the voluntary state defence institutions of both republics.

Structural effects on the vaporization of high molecular weight esters

To understand the effect of molecular weight and branching on the heats of vaporization (AH,) and their flow behavior, AH, and viscosity (7) were measured at different temperatures in the high molecular weight ester series: linear flexible di-n-alkyl sebacates and compact branched triglycerides with molecular weight ranging from 300 to 900. AHv" values (AHv corrected to 298 K) have been obtained with experimental AH, and also computed according to the group additivity method; a smaller-CH,- group value of 3.8 kJ mol-' compared to the normal value of 5.0 kJ mol-' is found to give good agreement with the experimental data (within 2-5% error). Both ester series have the same AH," irrespective of their molecular features, namely,shape, flexibility, and polarity, suggesting the coiling of the molecules during vaporization. The segmental motion of these ester series during their flow and its dependence on their molecular features unlike AH,' are demonstrated by the correlation of the enthalpy of activation for viscous flow (AH*) and the ratio AE,/AH* = n (AE, is the energy of vaporization) with molecular weight.

The German Military Entrepreneur Ernst von Mansfeld and His Conduct of Asymmetrical Warfare in the Thirty Years War

The dissertation examines aspects of asymmetrical warfare in the war-making of the German military entrepreneur Ernst von Mansfeld during his involvement in the Thirty Years War. Due to the nature of the inquiry, which combines history with military-political theory, the methodological approach of the dissertation is interdisciplinary. The theoretical framework used is that of asymmetrical warfare. The primary sources used in the dissertation are mostly political pamphlets and newsletters. Other sources include letters, documents, and contemporaneous chronicles. The secondary sources are divided into two categories, literature on the history of the Thirty Years War and textbooks covering the theory of asymmetrical warfare. The first category includes biographical works on Ernst von Mansfeld, as well as general histories of the Thirty Years War and seventeenth-century warfare. The second category combines military theory and political science. The structure of the dissertation consists of eight lead chapters, including an introduction and conclusion. The introduction covers the theoretical approach and aims of the dissertation, and provides a brief overlook of the sources and previous research on Ernst von Mansfeld and asymmetrical warfare in the Thirty Years War. The second chapter covers aspects of Mansfeld s asymmetrical warfare from the perspective of operational art. The third chapter investigates the illegal and immoral aspects of Mansfeld s war-making. The fourth chapter compares the differing methods by which Mansfeld and his enemies raised and financed their armies. The fifth chapter investigates Mansfeld s involvement in indirect warfare. The sixth chapter presents Mansfeld as an object and an agent of image and information war. The seventh chapter looks into the counter-reactions, which Mansfeld s asymmetrical warfare provoked from his enemies. The eighth chapter offers a conclusion of the findings. The dissertation argues that asymmetrical warfare presented itself in all the aforementioned areas of Mansfeld s conduct during the Thirty Years War. The operational asymmetry arose from the freedom of movement that Mansfeld enjoyed, while his enemies were constrained by the limits of positional warfare. As a non-state operator Mansfeld was also free to flout the rules of seventeenth-century warfare, which his enemies could not do with equal ease. The raising and financing of military forces was another source of asymmetry, because the nature of early seventeenth-century warfare favoured private military entrepreneurs rather than embryonic fiscal-military states. The dissertation also argues that other powers fought their own asymmetrical and indirect wars against the Habsburgs through Mansfeld s agency. Image and information were asymmetrical weapons, which were both aimed against Mansfeld and utilized by him. Finally, Mansfeld s asymmetrical threat forced the Habsburgs to adapt to his methods, which ultimately lead to the formation of a subcontracted Imperial Army under the management and leadership of Albrecht von Wallenstein. Therefore Mansfeld s asymmetrical warfare ultimately paved way for the kind of state-monopolized, organised, and symmetrical warfare that has prevailed from 1648 onwards. The conclusion is that Mansfeld s conduct in the Thirty Years War matched the criteria for asymmetrical warfare. While traditional historiography treated Mansfeld as an anomaly in the age of European state formation, his asymmetrical warfare has begun to bear resemblance to the contemporary conflicts, where nation states no longer hold the monopoly of violence.

Dry sliding wear of A356-Al-SiCp composites

Aluminium alloy (A356)-SiC composites containing 15 and 25 wt.% silicon carbide particles (average size 43 μm) were tested for sliding wear at different loads using a pin on disc machine. Composites exhibited better wear resistance compared with unreinforced alloy up to a pressure of 26 MPa. Scanning electron microscopy examination of worn surfaces and subsurfaces show that the presence of dispersed SiC particles help in reducing the propensity of material flow at the surface, at the same time leading to the formation of an iron-rich layer on the surface.

Band to correlated crossover in alternating Hubbard and Pariser-Parr-Pople chains: Nature of the lowest singlet excitation of conjugated polymers

The evolution with increasing Coulomb correlations of a semiconductor to a magnetic insulator is related to an excited-state crossover in pi-electron models for conjugated polymers. We associate strong fluorescence with a lowest singlet excitation S1 that is dipole allowed, on the band side, while S1 becomes two-photon allowed on the correlated side. S1/S2 crossovers in Hubbard, Pariser-Parr-Pople, or other chains with electron-hole symmetry and alternating transfer integral t(1 +/- delta) are based on exact results at delta=0 and 1, on molecular exciton theory at large delta, and on oligomer calculations up to twelve sites.

Effect of microstructure and hardness on the grinding abrasive wear resistance of a ball bearing steel

Grinding media wear appears to be non-linear with the time of grinding in a laboratory-scale ball mill. The kinetics of wear can be expressed as a power law of the type w=atb, where the numerical constant a represents wear of a particular microstructure at time t = 1 min and b is the wear exponent which is independent of the particle size prevailing inside a ball mill at any instant of time of grinding. The wear exponent appears to be an indicator of the cutting wear mechanism in dry grinding: a plot of the inverse of the normalised wear exponent (Image ) versusHs (where Hs is the worn surface hardness of the media) yields a curve similar to that of a wear resistance plot obtained in the case of two-body sliding abrasive wear. This method of evaluating the cutting wear resistance of media is demonstrated by employing 15 different microstructures of AISI-SAE 52100 steel balls in dry grinding of quartz in a laboratory-scale ball mill.

Friction and wear of PTFE — a review

Polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) is an important engineering material. When rubbed or slid against a hard surface, PTFE exhibits a low coefficient of friction but a high rate of wear. These unique properties of the polymer have encouraged many mechanistic and physical examinations of the processes involved in the friction and wear of this polymer. A section of such work carried out over the past 30 years is reviewed here. When rubbed against a hard surface, the PTFE chain undergoes scission, creating active groups which chemically react with the counterface. This results in strong adhesion and a coherent transfer film. Further interaction between the bulk polymer and the transfer film gives rise to anisotropic deformation of the unit cell, which results in closeness of adjacent chains and easy shear between chains. Sliding brings about growth in as well as reorientation of crystallites situated in a very thin subsurface region of the bulk polymer. Such structural rearrangement facilitates the joining of adjacent aligned crystallites to form films and ribbons which emerge as debris.

A single network adaptive critic (SNAC) architecture for optimal control synthesis for a class of nonlinear systems

Even though dynamic programming offers an optimal control solution in a state feedback form, the method is overwhelmed by computational and storage requirements. Approximate dynamic programming implemented with an Adaptive Critic (AC) neural network structure has evolved as a powerful alternative technique that obviates the need for excessive computations and storage requirements in solving optimal control problems. In this paper, an improvement to the AC architecture, called the �Single Network Adaptive Critic (SNAC)� is presented. This approach is applicable to a wide class of nonlinear systems where the optimal control (stationary) equation can be explicitly expressed in terms of the state and costate variables. The selection of this terminology is guided by the fact that it eliminates the use of one neural network (namely the action network) that is part of a typical dual network AC setup. As a consequence, the SNAC architecture offers three potential advantages: a simpler architecture, lesser computational load and elimination of the approximation error associated with the eliminated network. In order to demonstrate these benefits and the control synthesis technique using SNAC, two problems have been solved with the AC and SNAC approaches and their computational performances are compared. One of these problems is a real-life Micro-Electro-Mechanical-system (MEMS) problem, which demonstrates that the SNAC technique is applicable to complex engineering systems.

Two-mode quantum systems: Invariant classification of squeezing transformations and squeezed states

A general analysis of squeezing transformations for two-mode systems is given based on the four-dimensional real symplectic group Sp(4, R). Within the framework of the unitary (metaplectic) representation of this group, a distinction between compact photon-number-conserving and noncompact photon-number-nonconserving squeezing transformations is made. We exploit the U(2) invariant squeezing criterion to divide the set of all squeezing transformations into a two-parameter family of distinct equivalence classes with representative elements chosen for each class. Familiar two-mode squeezing transformations in the literature are recognized in our framework and seen to form a set of measure zero. Examples of squeezed coherent and thermal states are worked out. The need to extend the heterodyne detection scheme to encompass all of U(2) is emphasized, and known experimental situations where all U(2) elements can be reproduced are briefly described.

Structure of N-tert-butyloxycarbonyl-[alpha]-aminoisobutyryl-DL-pipecolyl-[alpha]-aminoisobutyric acid methyl ester

C20H35N3O6 (Boc-Aib-DL-Pip-Aib-OMe, Boc = tert-butyloxycarbonyl, Aib = alpha-aminoisobutyric acid, Pip = pipecolic acid, OMe = methoxy), M(r) = 413.5, monoclinic, P2(1)/c, a = 18.055 (3), b = 15.048 (3), c = 17.173 (3) angstrom, beta = 91.7 (1)-degrees, V = 4663.8 (9) angstrom3, Z = 8, D(m) = 1.16, D(x) = 1.178 Mg m-3, lambda(Mo Kalpha) = 0.71069 angstrom, mu = 0.081 mm-1, F(000) = 1792, T = 297 K. The final R value for 4925 [I greater-than-or-equal-to 3sigma(I)] reflections is 0.065 (wR = 0.067). The peptide backbone of the two independent molecules in the asymmetric unit is folded at the -Aib-Pip- sequence to form a type-I (I') beta-bend stabilized by a 1 <-- 4 intramolecular N-H...O=C hydrogen bond between the Aib(3) peptide N-H and Boc urethane C=O groups.

Observations on the role of the steel disc counterface during the sliding of various structural ceramics

Sliding wear characteristics and mechanisms of structural ceramics, namely Al2O3, zirconia-toughened alumina, tetragonal zirconia polycrystals (TZP) and Si3N4 against a steel counterface are influenced by mechanical and tribochemical interactions, specific to the combinations studied. The present paper studies the role of the disc in the sliding wear process of the above ceramics. Experiments were conducted at a pressure of 15.5 MPa between 0.1 and 12.0 m s(-1) with ceramic pins sliding against an EN-24 steel disc. Except in the case of TZP, the disc morphology is sensitive to variations in speed rather than to the pin material. The disc track is (i) mildly abraded at low speeds (about 0.1-0.75 m s(-1)), (ii) severely abraded at intermediate speeds (about 1.0-3.0 m s(-1)), (iii) covered with black patches at high speeds (about 4.0-6.0 m s(-1)) and (iv) completely black at very high speeds (about 7.0-12.0 m s(-1)). In the case of TZP, although black patches appear, transfer of TZP onto the disc surface and high wear of TZP occurs at 4.0 m s(-1). The order of the wear of the disc estimated from profilometric measurements is the same for all the ceramics. Except for Si3N4, the onset of wear of the ceramics is associated with the appearance of deep 'V' grooves on either side of the profile of the disc track. This can be explained on the basis of the thermal and hardness variations. Although other interaction products specific to the ceramic pin are present, the formation of iron oxides dominates the wear of the disc.

The role of strain rate response in plane strain abrasion of metals

Titanium flats were scribed by silicon carbide wedges over ranges of temperatures and applied strains and with lubrication. The response of the material to scribing was noted by recording the coefficient of friction, the surface morphology of track and the subsurface deformation. Additional data were obtained from (1) uniaxial compression of titanium, (2) scribing of oxygen-free high conductivity copper and (3) scribing of aluminium under dry and lubricated conditions to analyse and explain the observed variation in response of titanium to scribing with strain, temperature and lubrication.