Testing financing constraints on firm investment using variable capital

We consider a dynamic multifactor model of investment with financing imperfections,adjustment costs and fixed and variable capital. We use the model to derive a test offinancing constraints based on a reduced form variable capital equation. Simulation resultsshow that this test correctly identifies financially constrained firms even when the estimationof firms investment opportunities is very noisy. In addition, the test is well specified inthe presence of both concave and convex adjustment costs of fixed capital. We confirmempirically the validity of this test on a sample of small Italian manufacturing companies.

Educação e Capital Social para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável das Comunidades Piscatórias da Ilha de Santiago (Cabo Verde)

As comunidades piscatórias da ilha de Santiago são as mais pobres de Cabo Verde, e as pessoas que aí vivem têm vindo a deparar-se com problemas socioeconómicos, com reflexos negativos em termos de pressão sobre os recursos naturais, do saneamento do meio e do exercício da cidadania, sendo este uma das vias que poderia contribuir para a resolução da problemática do desenvolvimento dessas comunidades. O presente trabalho de investigação tem por objetivo analisar o nível da educação e do capital social nas comunidades piscatórias da ilha de Santiago em Cabo Verde, evidenciar o papel da educação na formação e no reforço do nível de capital social nessas comunidades e analisar a importância, deste último, para o desenvolvimento sustentável das mesmas. Para a realização deste trabalho foi utilizada uma metodologia com enfoque quantitativo e exploratório. Para além do estudo documental, para a obtenção da informação sobre a educação, o capital social e o desenvolvimento, os dados da parte prática do trabalho foram obtidos por meio de inquérito por questionário aplicado às 340 (trezentas e quarentas) pessoas, de ambos os sexos, das comunidades piscatórias da ilha de Santiago, escolhidas aleatoriamente. Os resultados do estudo foram apresentados com base em estatísticas descritivas e fez-se testes estatísticos para verificar a dependência/ independência entre as variáveis do estudo e as hipóteses. Ainda, a discussão dos resultados de estudo foi feita tendo em consideração o suporte teórico, a esse respeito, e que consta do trabalho. Da análise e discussão dos resultados do trabalho, conclui-se que, nas comunidades piscatórias da ilha de Santiago, não há correlação direta entre o nível de educação e o de capital social, sendo este mais elevado para os respondentes que não sabem ler e nem escrever e para os que não estão a frequentar estudos, e o Índice de Capital Social (ICS) das pessoas é suportado pela tradição. Ainda, o capital social dos inquiridos a nível da ilha de Santiago é de 0,76 e, sendo assim, acima da média estabelecida (0,50), e aproveitado pelas pessoas na vida quotidiana, mas não se projeta para as iniciativas sem efeitos imediatos e, em consequência, pouco tem vindo a contribuir para o desenvolvimento dessas comunidades.

Are agent-based simulations robust? The wholesale electricity trading case

Agent-based computational economics is becoming widely used in practice. This paperexplores the consistency of some of its standard techniques. We focus in particular on prevailingwholesale electricity trading simulation methods. We include different supply and demandrepresentations and propose the Experience-Weighted Attractions method to include severalbehavioural algorithms. We compare the results across assumptions and to economic theorypredictions. The match is good under best-response and reinforcement learning but not underfictitious play. The simulations perform well under flat and upward-slopping supply bidding,and also for plausible demand elasticity assumptions. Learning is influenced by the number ofbids per plant and the initial conditions. The overall conclusion is that agent-based simulationassumptions are far from innocuous. We link their performance to underlying features, andidentify those that are better suited to model wholesale electricity markets.

The dog that did not bark: Insider trading and crashes

This paper documents that at the individual stock level insiders sales peak many months before a large drop in the stock price, while insiders purchases peak only the month before a large jump. We provide a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon based on trading constraints and asymmetric information. We test our hypothesis against competing stories such as patterns of insider trading driven by earnings announcement dates, or insiders timing their trades to evade prosecution. Finally we provide new evidence regarding crashes and the degree of information asymmetry.

Bank versus venture capital

Why do some start-up firms raise funds from banks andothers from venture capitalists? To answer this question,I develop a model of start-up financing when intellectualproperty rights are not well protected. The upside of VCfinancing is that the VC understands the business betterthan a bank. The downside, however, is that the VC maysteal the idea and use it himself. The results of themodel are consistent with empirical regularities onstart-up financing. The model implies that thecharacteristics of the firms financing from venturecapitalists are low-collateral, high-growth and high-profitability. The model also suggests that thetighter protection of intellectual property rightscontributes to the recent dramatic growth of the USventure capital industry.

A influência do e-learning no capital humano

Na Europa e nas últimas décadas do Século XX, a emergência da Sociedade de Informação veio impor às organizações a necessidade de que, para além das inovações tecnológicas, haja uma preocupação relativamente aos bens intangíveis como a informação, as novas metodologias de trabalho e o know how (Batista, 2002). Paralelamente a estas inovações, as Instituições de Ensino Superior têm contribuído para a evolução do Capital Humano, como ativo intangível intrínseco ao Homem. Em Portugal e no contexto do Ensino/Formação a Distância parecem continuar a existir, ainda, em algumas instituições, problemas de identificação, e de descriminação das vantagens no que concerne à estrutura aberta e flexível, com o estudante/formando a ter algumas dificuldades em adaptar o seu perfil e interesses profissionais ao tipo de aprendizagem que mais se lhe adequa. O e-learning surge como um método de Ensino/Formação a Distância, só possível com a especificidade dos processos pedagógicos e em complementaridade com as Tecnologias de Informação e Comunicação (TIC), uma vez que são estas que lhe dão o suporte necessário à sua concretização. O e-learning ao proporcionar novas formas de comunicação, de interação e de confronto de ideias, permite uma aprendizagem baseada na partilha de saberes, tendo em consideração as experiências e os objetivos profissionais dos formandos. Dentro destes pressupostos, achámos importante fazer uma investigação a partir de Instituições de Ensino Superior Portuguesas, de modo a percebermos qual o papel e a influência que o e-learning desempenha nos objetivos das organizações académicas em geral e no Capital Humano dos seus Estudantes/Formandos em particular. A partir da questão da investigação foram definidos os objetivos e hipóteses de investigação de modo a que ao ser enunciada uma metodologia esta englobe fatores que foquem os elementos necessários à confirmação, ou não, dos pressupostos enunciados. Foi analisada documentação diversa, criado um questionário e conduzidas entrevistas, de modo a obter e potenciar a informação necessária e suficiente para o efeito. A recolha de dados para posterior análise e os resultados depois de interpretados, permitirão responder aos propósitos expressos desde o início da investigação.

Firm investment in imperfect capital markets: A structural estimation

We set up a dynamic model of firm investment in which liquidity constraintsenter explicity into the firm's maximization problem. The optimal policyrules are incorporated into a maximum likelihood procedure which estimatesthe structural parameters of the model. Investment is positively related tothe firm's internal financial position when the firm is relatively poor. This relationship disappears for wealthy firms, which can reach theirdesired level of investment. Borrowing is an increasing function of financial position for poor firms. This relationship is reversed as a firm's financial position improves, and large firms hold little debt.Liquidity constrained firms may be unused credits lines and the capacity toinvest further if they desire. However the fear that liquidity constraintswill become binding in the future induces them to invest only when internalresources increase.We estimate the structural parameters of the model and use them to quantifythe importance of liquidity constraints on firms' investment. We find thatliquidity constraints matter significantly for the investment decisions of firms. If firms can finance investment by issuing fresh equity, rather than with internal funds or debt, average capital stock is almost 35% higher overa period of 20 years. Transitory shocks to internal funds have a sustained effect on the capital stock. This effect lasts for several periods and ismore persistent for small firms than for large firms. A 10% negative shock to firm fundamentals reduces the capital stock of firms which face liquidityconstraints by almost 8% over a period as opposed to only 3.5% for firms which do not face these constraints.

Bubbles and capital flows

This paper presents a stylized model of international trade and asset price bubbles. Its central insight is that bubbles tend to appear and expand in countries where productivity is low relative to the rest of the world. These bubbles absorb local savings, eliminating inefficient investments and liberating resources that are in part used to invest in high productivity countries. Through this channel, bubbles act as a substitute for international capital flows, improving the international allocation of investment and reducing rate-of-return differentials across countries. This view of asset price bubbles could eventually provide a simple account of some real world phenomenae that have been difficult to model before, such as the recurrence and depth of financial crises or their puzzling tendency to propagate across countries.

Capital goods imports and investments in Latin America in the mid 1920s

The assessment of Latin American long term economic performance is in urgent need ofmobilizing more data to match the pressing demands of growth analysts. We present asystematic comparison of capital goods imports for 20 Latin American countries in 1925. It relies on both the foreign trade data of the importing countries and of the major exporting countries the industrialized economies of the time. The quality of foreign trade figures is tested; an homogeneous estimate of capital goods imported is derived, and its per capita ranking is discussed providing new light on Latin American development levels before import substitution.

Organizational capital and employment fluctuations

In this paper I present a model in which production requires two types of labor inputs: regular productive tasks and organizational capital, which is accumulated by workers performing organizational tasks. By allocating more workers from organizational to productive tasks, firms can temporarily increase production without hiring. The availability of this intensive margin of labor adjustment, in combination with adjustment costs along the extensive margin (search frictions, firing costs, training costs), makes it optimal to delay employment adjustments. Simulations indicate that this mechanism is quantitatively important even if only a small fraction of workers perform organizational tasks, and explains why the hiring rate is persistent and why employment is slow to recover after the end of a recession.

Why are capital flows so much more volatile in emerging than in developed countries?

The standard deviations of capital flows to emerging countries are 80 percent higher than those to developed countries. First, we show that very little of this difference can be explained by more volatile fundamentals or by higher sensitivity to fundamentals. Second, we show that most of the difference in volatility can be accounted for by three characteristics of capital flows: (i) capital flows to emerging countries are more subject to occasional large negative shocks ( crises ) than those to developed countries, (ii) shocks are subject to contagion, and (iii) the most important one shocks to capital flows to emerging countries are more persistent than those to developed countries. Finally, we study a number of country characteristics to determine which are most associated with capital flow volatility. Our results suggest that underdevelopment of domestic financial markets, weak institutions, and low income per capita, are all associated with capital flow volatility.

Quantifying quantitative literacy: Age heaping and the history of human capital

Age data frequently display excess frequencies at round or attractive ages, such as even numbers and multiples of five. This phenomenon of age heaping has been viewed as a problem in previous research, especially in demography and epidemiology. We see it as an opportunity and propose its use as a measure of human capital that can yield comparable estimates across a wide range of historical contexts. A simulation study yields methodological guidelines for measuring and interpreting differences in ageheaping, while analysis of contemporary and historical datasets demonstrates the existence of a robust correlation between age heaping and literacy at both the individual and aggregate level. To illustrate the method, we generate estimates of human capital in Europe over the very long run, which support the hypothesis of a major increase in human capital preceding the industrial revolution.

Inflation and output dynamics with firm-owned capital

We model firm-owned capital in a stochastic dynamic New-Keynesian generalequilibrium model à la Calvo. We find that this structure impliesequilibrium dynamics which are quantitatively di¤erent from the onesassociated with a benchmark case where households accumulate capital andrent it to firms. Our findings therefore stress the importance ofmodeling an investment decision at the firm level in addition to ameaningful price setting decision. Along the way we argue that the problemof modeling firm-owned capital with Calvo price-setting has not been solvedin a correct way in the previous literature.

Main Street Messenger, Spring 2009

Downtown Revitalization News from the Iowa Downtown Resource Center.

Adjustment to target capital, finance and growth

Does financial development result in capital being reallocated more rapidly to industries where it is most productive? We argue that if this was the case, financially developed countries should see faster growth in industries with investment opportunities due to global demand and productivity shifts. Testing this cross-industry cross-country growth implication requires proxies for (latent) global industry investment opportunities. We show that tests relying only on data from specific (benchmark) countries may yield spurious evidence for or against the hypothesis. We therefore develop an alternative approach that combines benchmark-country proxies with a proxy that does not reflect opportunities specific to a country or level of financial development. Our empirical results yield clear support for the capital reallocation hypothesis.