Simulating and Forecasting the Demand for New Consumer Durables

A diffusion/replacement model for new consumer durables designed to be used as a long-term forecasting tool is developed. The model simulates new demand as well as replacement demand over time. The model is called DEMSIM and is built upon a counteractive adoption model specifying the basic forces affecting the adoption behaviour of individual consumers. These forces are the promoting forces and the resisting forces. The promoting forces are further divided into internal and external influences. These influences are operationalized within a multi-segmental diffusion model generating the adoption behaviour of the consumers in each segment as an expected value. This diffusion model is combined with a replacement model built upon the same segmental structure as the diffusion model. This model generates, in turn, the expected replacement behaviour in each segment. To be able to use DEMSIM as a forecasting tool in early stages of a diffusion process estimates of the model parameters are needed as soon as possible after product launch. However, traditional statistical techniques are not very helpful in estimating such parameters in early stages of a diffusion process. To enable early parameter calibration an optimization algorithm is developed by which the main parameters of the diffusion model can be estimated on the basis of very few sales observations. The optimization is carried out in iterative simulation runs. Empirical validations using the optimization algorithm reveal that the diffusion model performs well in early long-term sales forecasts, especially as it comes to the timing of future sales peaks.

The Hybrid Consumer: Exploring the Drivers of a New Consumer Behaviour Type

A dramatically different consumption pattern seems to be emerging among a vast group of consumers. This may mean that conventional consumer stereotypes and segmentation theory are becoming outdated. The so called hybrid consumers seem to increasingly opt for both premium and budget alternatives in various product and service categories while mid-priced alternatives are losing share in their consumption basket. Although this type of polarisation, or dispersion, is already recognized as an important change, hybrid behaviour is still largely under-researched. The present study aims to analyze the possible drivers of hybrid consumption and by identifying typical categories and situations of trading up versus trading down derive tentative characteristics of hybrid consumption for further research on the topic. A tentative pattern of hybrid consumption was identified, which relates trading up to high-involvement, discretional spending and trading down to low-involvement necessities. However, it was also found that hybrid consumption transcends product category boundaries and may thus be less straightforward than previously perhaps assumed. In addition, a purchase pattern continuum was developed, accounting for various degrees of hybrid consumption.

Asymmetry in structural and thermo-mechanical behavior of intermetallic NiAl nanowire under tensile/compressive loading: A molecular dynamics study

The asymmetric stress strain behavior under tension/compression in an initial < 100 > B-2-NiAl nanowire is investigated considering two different surface configurations i.e., < 100 >/(0 1 0) (0 0 1) and < 100 >/(0 1 1) (0 - 1 1). This behavior is attributed to two different deformation mechanisms namely a slip dominated deformation under compression and a known twinning dominated deformation under tension. It is also shown that B2 -> BCT (body-centered-tetragonal) phase transformation under tensile loading is independent of the surface configurations for an initial < 100 > oriented NiAl nanowire. Under tensile loading, the nanowire undergoes a stress-induced martensiticphase transformation from an initial B2 phase to BCT phase via twinning along {110} plane with failure strain of similar to 0.30. On the other hand, a compressive loading causes failure of these nanowires via brittle fracture after compressive yielding, with a maximum failure strain of similar to-0.12. Such brittle fracture under compressive loading occurs via slip along {110} plane without any phase transformations. Softening/hardening behavior is also reported for the first time in these nanowires under tensile/compressive loadings, which cause asymmetry in their yield strength behavior in the stress strain space. Result shows that a sharp increase in energy with increasing strain under compressive loading causes hardening of the nanowire, and hence, gives improved yield strength as compared to tensile loading. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Markov Chain Model for Cracking Behavior of Reinforced Concrete Beams

In this paper, nonhomogeneous Markov chains are proposed for modeling the cracking behavior of reinforced concrete beams subjected to monotonically increasing loads. The model facilitates prediction of the maximum crackwidth at a given load given the crackwidth at a lower load level, and thus leads to a better understanding of the cracking phenomenon. To illustrate the methodology developed, the results of three reinforced concrete beams tested in the laboratory are analyzed and presented.

Exotic dielectric behavior of polar liquids

We present a report of our analysis of wave vector dependence of the static dielectric function of a dipolar liquid obtained by a microscopic calculation. At low values of the wave vector (k), the longitudinal dielectric function ϵ(k) increases with k, in contradiction to some assumptions reported in the literature. As the value of k is increased, ϵ(k) diverges at a critical value kc which depends on the value of the long wavelength static dielectric constant (ϵ0) of the liquid. The dielectric function is negative for values of k greater than kc. At large values of k, the calculated ϵ(k) fails to attain the limiting value of unity. We attribute this result to the failure of the point dipole assumption made in the evaluation of the polarization correlation function required by the theory. The behavior of ϵ(k) for the dipolar liquid is compared with that of one component plasma for which reliable results can be obtained over the full range of wave vectors. For both systems, the stability conditions are fulfilled at all values of k. A plausible explanation of this rather exotic behavior of ϵ(k) is given.

Role of hydroxyl group on the mesomorphism of alkyl glycosides:synthesis and thermal behavior of alkyl 6-deoxy-beta-D-glucopyranosides

A homologous series of alkyl 6-deoxy-beta-D-glucopyranoside amphiphiles was prepared,in an effort to identify the role of hydroxyl group in the mesomorphic behavior of alkyl glycosides. Synthesis was performed by a chlorination of the sugar moiety in alkyl-beta-D-glucopyranosides with methylsulfonyl chloride in DMF, followed by a metal mediated dehalogenation to secure alkyl 6-deoxy-beta-D-glucopyranosides, wherein the alkyl chain length varied from C-9 to C-16. The mesomorphic behavior of these 6-deoxy alkyl glycosides was assessed using polarizing optical microscopy, differential scanning calorimetry and X-ray diffraction method. Whereas the lower homologues exhibited a monotropic SmA phase till sub-ambient temperatures, the higher homologues formed a plastic phase. A partial interdigitized bilaye structure of SmA phase is inferred from experimental d-spacing and computationally derived lengths of the molecules. The results were compared with those of normal alkyl glucopyranosides, retained with hydroxyl groups at C-2-C-6 carbons, and alkyl 2-deoxy-glucopyranosides, devoid of a hydroxyl group at C-2 and the comparison showed important differences in the mesomorphic behavior.(C)2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Novel phase-transition behavior in an aqueous electrolyte solution

We have investigated the near-critical behavior of the susceptibility of a ternary liquid mixture of 3-methylpyridine. water, and sodium bromide as a function of the salt concentration. The susceptibility was determined from light-scattering measurements performed at a scattering angle of 90 degrees in the one-phase region near the locus of lower consolute points. A sharp crossover from asymptotic Ising behavior to mean-field behavior has been observed at concentrations ranging from 8 to 16.5 mass% NaBr. The range of asymptotic Ising behavior shrinks with increasing salt concentration and vanishes at a NaBr concentration of about 17 mass%. where complete mean-field-like behavior of the susceptibility is observed. A simultaneous pronounced increase in the background scattering at concentrations above 15 mass%, as well as a dip in the critical locus at 17 mass % NaBr, suggests that this phenomenon can be interpreted as mean-field tricritical behavior associated with the formation of a microheterogeneous phase due to clustering of the molecules and ions. An analogy with tri critical behavior observed in polymer solutions as well as the possibility of a charge-density-wave phase is also discussed. In addition, we, have observed a third soap-like phase an the liquid-liquid interface in several binary and ternary liquid mixtures.

Leaching behavior of Indian fly ashes by an oedometer method

Thermal power stations use pulverized coal as fuel, producing enormous quantities of ash as a by-product of combustion. Currently, with very low utilization of the ash produced, the ash deposits at the thermal power stations are increasing rapidly. The disposal problem is expected to become alarming due to the limited space available for ash disposal near most thermal power stations. Among the various applications available for the use of fly ash, geotechnical application offers opportunity for its bulk utilization. However, the possibility of ground and surface water contamination due to the leaching of toxic elements present in the fly ash needs to be addressed. This paper describes a study carried out on two Indian fly ashes. It is found that pH is the controlling factor in the leaching behavior of fly ashes.

Scaling behavior of plasmon coupling in Au and ReO3 nanoparticles incorporated in polymer matrices

Polymer nanocomposites containing different concentrations of Au nanoparticles have been investigated by small angle X-ray scattering and electronic absorption spectroscopy. The variation in the surface plasmon resonance (SPR) band of Au nanoparticles with concentration is described by a scaling law. The variation in the plasmon band of ReO3 nanoparticles embedded in polymers also follows a similar scaling law. Sistance dependence of plasmon coupling in polymer composites f metal nanoparticles. (C) 2010 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Anomalous dielectric behavior of some ferrites

The dielectric behavior of some powdered polycrystalline samples has been studied in the frequency range of 200 Hz–100 kHz. It is shown that the dielectric behavior in these systems below the Curie temperature is not purely relaxational in its character and cannot be described by any of the models of the dielectric relaxation hitherto put forward. It is also shown that ‘‘isolation’’ of the particles in the powder samples plays a very important role. The origin of this abnormality is thought to be due to the mechanical resonance arising out of the magnetostrictive property of the material.