Valuing equity-linked death benefits in jump diffusion models

The paper is motivated by the valuation problem of guaranteed minimum death benefits in various equity-linked products. At the time of death, a benefit payment is due. It may depend not only on the price of a stock or stock fund at that time, but also on prior prices. The problem is to calculate the expected discounted value of the benefit payment. Because the distribution of the time of death can be approximated by a combination of exponential distributions, it suffices to solve the problem for an exponentially distributed time of death. The stock price process is assumed to be the exponential of a Brownian motion plus an independent compound Poisson process whose upward and downward jumps are modeled by combinations (or mixtures) of exponential distributions. Results for exponential stopping of a Lévy process are used to derive a series of closed-form formulas for call, put, lookback, and barrier options, dynamic fund protection, and dynamic withdrawal benefit with guarantee. We also discuss how barrier options can be used to model lapses and surrenders.

Preventing invasive candida infections. Where could we do better?

Invasive candidiasis is associated with high mortality rates, ranging from 35% to 60%, in the range reported for septic shock. The epidemiology and pathogenesis of invasive candidiasis differ according to the patient's immune status; the majority of cases in immunocompromised hosts are candidaemia, whereas non-candidaemic systemic candidiasis accounts for the majority of cases in critically ill patients. In contrast to candidaemia, non-candidaemic systemic candidiasis is difficult to prove, especially in critically ill patients. Up to 80% of these patients are colonized, but only 5-30% develop invasive infection. The differentiation of colonization and proven infection is challenging, and evolution from the former to the latter requires seven to 10 days. This continuum from colonization of mucosal surfaces to local invasion and then invasive infection makes it difficult to identify those critically ill patients likely to benefit most from antifungal prophylaxis or early empirical antifungal treatment. Early empirical treatment of non-candidaemic systemic candidiasis currently relies on the positive predictive value of risk assessment strategies, such as the colonization index, candida score, and predictive rules based on combinations of risk factors such as candida colonization, broad-spectrum antibiotics, and abdominal surgery. Although guidelines recently scored these strategies as being supported by limited evidence, they are widely used at bedside and have substantially decreased the incidence of invasive candidiasis.

Genomic evidence for role of inversion 3RP of Drosophila melanogaster in facilitating climate change adaptation.

Chromosomal inversion polymorphisms are common in animals and plants, and recent models suggest that alternative arrangements spread by capturing different combinations of alleles acting additively or epistatically to favour local adaptation. It is also thought that inversions typically maintain favoured combinations for a long time by suppressing recombination between alternative chromosomal arrangements. Here, we consider patterns of linkage disequilibrium and genetic divergence in an old inversion polymorphism in Drosophila melanogaster (In(3R)Payne) known to be associated with climate change adaptation and a recent invasion event into Australia. We extracted, karyotyped and sequenced whole chromosomes from two Australian populations, so that changes in the arrangement of the alleles between geographically separated tropical and temperate areas could be compared. Chromosome-wide linkage disequilibrium (LD) analysis revealed strong LD within the region spanned by In(3R)Payne. This genomic region also showed strong differentiation between the tropical and the temperate populations, but no differentiation between different karyotypes from the same population, after controlling for chromosomal arrangement. Patterns of differentiation across the chromosome arm and in gene ontologies were enhanced by the presence of the inversion. These data support the notion that inversions are strongly selected by bringing together combinations of genes, but it is still not clear if such combinations act additively or epistatically. Our data suggest that climatic adaptation through inversions can be dynamic, reflecting changes in the relative abundance of different forms of an inversion and ongoing evolution of allelic content within an inversion.

Discovery of a 29-gene panel in peripheral blood mononuclear cells for the detection of colorectal cancer and adenomas using high throughput real-time PCR.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of cancer-related death in developed countries. Early detection of CRC leads to decreased CRC mortality. A blood-based CRC screening test is highly desirable due to limited invasiveness and high acceptance rate among patients compared to currently used fecal occult blood testing and colonoscopy. Here we describe the discovery and validation of a 29-gene panel in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) for the detection of CRC and adenomatous polyps (AP). Blood samples were prospectively collected from a multicenter, case-control clinical study. First, we profiled 93 samples with 667 candidate and 3 reference genes by high throughput real-time PCR (OpenArray system). After analysis, 160 genes were retained and tested again on 51 additional samples. Low expressed and unstable genes were discarded resulting in a final dataset of 144 samples profiled with 140 genes. To define which genes, alone or in combinations had the highest potential to discriminate AP and/or CRC from controls, data were analyzed by a combination of univariate and multivariate methods. A list of 29 potentially discriminant genes was compiled and evaluated for its predictive accuracy by penalized logistic regression and bootstrap. This method discriminated AP >1cm and CRC from controls with a sensitivity of 59% and 75%, respectively, with 91% specificity. The behavior of the 29-gene panel was validated with a LightCycler 480 real-time PCR platform, commonly adopted by clinical laboratories. In this work we identified a 29-gene panel expressed in PBMC that can be used for developing a novel minimally-invasive test for accurate detection of AP and CRC using a standard real-time PCR platform.

Prospective motion correction of 3D echo-planar imaging data for functional MRI using optical tracking.

We evaluated the performance of an optical camera based prospective motion correction (PMC) system in improving the quality of 3D echo-planar imaging functional MRI data. An optical camera and external marker were used to dynamically track the head movement of subjects during fMRI scanning. PMC was performed by using the motion information to dynamically update the sequence's RF excitation and gradient waveforms such that the field-of-view was realigned to match the subject's head movement. Task-free fMRI experiments on five healthy volunteers followed a 2×2×3 factorial design with the following factors: PMC on or off; 3.0mm or 1.5mm isotropic resolution; and no, slow, or fast head movements. Visual and motor fMRI experiments were additionally performed on one of the volunteers at 1.5mm resolution comparing PMC on vs PMC off for no and slow head movements. Metrics were developed to quantify the amount of motion as it occurred relative to k-space data acquisition. The motion quantification metric collapsed the very rich camera tracking data into one scalar value for each image volume that was strongly predictive of motion-induced artifacts. The PMC system did not introduce extraneous artifacts for the no motion conditions and improved the time series temporal signal-to-noise by 30% to 40% for all combinations of low/high resolution and slow/fast head movement relative to the standard acquisition with no prospective correction. The numbers of activated voxels (p<0.001, uncorrected) in both task-based experiments were comparable for the no motion cases and increased by 78% and 330%, respectively, for PMC on versus PMC off in the slow motion cases. The PMC system is a robust solution to decrease the motion sensitivity of multi-shot 3D EPI sequences and thereby overcome one of the main roadblocks to their widespread use in fMRI studies.

Potassium fertilization for pineapple: effects on plant growth and fruit yield

A field experiment with pineapple (Smooth Cayenne) was carried out on an Ultisol located in the city of Agudos (22º30'S; 49º03'W), in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, with the objective of investigating the effects of rates and sources of potassium fertilizer on plant growth and fruit yield. The experiment was a complete factorial design (4x3) with four rates (0, 175, 350, and 700 kg ha-1 of K2O) and three combinations of K sources (100% KCl, 100% K2SO4, and 40% K2SO4 + 60% KCl). Plant growth and fruit yield were evaluated. Biomass accumulation of pineapple plants was impaired by chlorine added with potassium chloride. Fruit yield increased with potassium fertilization. At high rates of K application, fertilization with K2SO4 showed better results than with KCl. Detrimental effects of KCl were associated with excess of chlorine.

Potassium fertilization for pineapple: effects on soil chemical properties and plant nutrition

A field experiment was carried out on an Ultisol located at the city of Agudos (22º30'S; 49º03'W), in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, in order to determine the effects of rates and sources of potassium fertilizer on nutritional status of 'Smooth Cayenne' pineapple and on some soil chemical properties. The experiment was a complete factorial design with four rates (0, 175, 350, and 700 kg ha-1 of K2O) and three combinations of K sources (100% KCl, 100% K2SO4 and 40% K2SO4 + 60% KCl). Soil samples were taken from the depths 0-20 cm, 20-40 cm and 40-60 cm at planting and 14 months after. Nutritional status of pineapple plants was assessed by means of tissue analysis. Soil K availability increased with application of K fertilizer, regardless of K sources. Soil chlorine and Cl concentration in pineapple leaves increased with application of KCl or K2SO4+KCl. Plant uptake of potassium was shaped by soil K availability and by the application rates of K fertilizer, independently of K sources.

Molecular characterization of papaya genotypes using AFLP markers

Due to the low genetic variability reported in the commercial plantations of papaya (Carica papaya L.), the objective of this study was analyze the genetic diversity of 32 genotypes including cultivars, landraces, inbred lines, and improved germplasm using the AFLP technique (Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism). The genetic distance matrix was obtained using the Nei and Li genetic distance and clustering was performed using the unweighted pair-method with arithmetic mean (UPGMA). Using 11 combinations of EcoRI/MseI primers, 383 polymorphic bands were obtained. On average, 34.8 polymorphic bands were obtained per primer combination. Five clusters were formed. The traditional cultivar 'Sunrise' and the inbred line CMF-L30-08 were the closest genotypes, and the improved germplasm (CMF041) and landrace (CMF233) the most distant. The main papaya cultivars commercially grown in Brazil, as well as four inbred lines and three improved germplasm, were clustered together, however, were not grouped in the same branch. The genetic distance between the Sunrise and Golden cultivars was 0.329, and even arising from mutation and selection within the Sunrise variety, the Golden stores considerable genetic variability. Additional variability was observed in the inbred lines derived from papaya breeding program at Embrapa Cassava and Fruits.

Tree cover at fine and coarse spatial grains interacts with shade tolerance to shape plant species distributions across the Alps

The role of competition for light among plants has long been recognized at local scales, but its potential importance for plant species' distribution at larger spatial scales has largely been ignored. Tree cover acts as a modulator of local abiotic conditions, notably by reducing light availability below the canopy and thus the performance of species that are not adapted to low-light conditions. However, this local effect may propagate to coarser spatial grains. Using 6,935 vegetation plots located across the European Alps, we fit Generalized Linear Models (GLM) for the distribution of 960 herbs and shrubs species to assess the effect of tree cover at both plot and landscape grain sizes (~ 10-m and 1-km, respectively). We ran four models with different combinations of variables (climate, soil and tree cover) for each species at both spatial grains. We used partial regressions to evaluate the independent effects of plot- and landscape-scale tree cover on plant communities. Finally, the effects on species' elevational range limits were assessed by simulating a removal experiment comparing the species' distribution under high and low tree cover. Accounting for tree cover improved model performance, with shade-tolerant species increasing their probability of presence at high tree cover whereas shade-intolerant species showed the opposite pattern. The tree cover effect occurred consistently at both plot and landscape spatial grains, albeit strongest at the former. Importantly, tree cover at the two grain sizes had partially independent effects on plot-scale plant communities, suggesting that the effects may be transmitted to coarser grains through meta-community dynamics. At high tree cover, shade-intolerant species exhibited elevational range contractions, especially at their upper limit, whereas shade-tolerant species showed elevational range expansions at both limits. Our findings suggest that the range shifts for herb and shrub species may be modulated by tree cover dynamics.

Pharmacoeconomics of Cyclamen europaeum in the management of Acute Rhinosinusitis

Objective. To carry out a pharmacoeconomic analysis of Cyclamen europaeum (CE) in the management of acute rhinosinusitis (ARS) in Spain using data from the PROSINUS study. Study Design. This was a prospective observational study to compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness between therapies including CE vs. other therapies in the management of ARS. Methods. The study was carried out as a secondary analysis of the PROSINUS, combining healthcare resource use, productivity loses, and health outcomes from the observational study with costs representative of the Spanish Health System. Results. CE given as monotherapy appears to be more effective (cure rate) than other monotherapies (15.3% higher, p<0.05) and combination (10.3% higher, p<0.05) therapies. The addition of CE to other single-drug or combination therapies showed a statistically significant improvement in terms of cure rates when adding CE to 2-drug combinations (93.9% vs. 76.5%; p<0.05), and no significant effect when added to combinations of three or more drugs (81.1% vs. 79.8; NS). CE based therapies generally showed lower indirect costs, although only the comparison of CE alone vs. other monotherapies, with a net cost savings of 101 per patient, reached statistical significance (331 vs. 432 , p<0.05). In addition, CE-based therapies show lower cost per cured patient in all comparisons except when CE was used in combination with three or more other drugs. Conclusions. The use of Cyclamen europaeum may be associated to better clinical outcomes at no additional cost for the healthcare system, respect to treatments commonly used for ARS in clinical practice.

Inversion polymorphism in two Serbian natural populations of Drosophila subobscura: Analysis of long-term changes

To study whether inversions (or arrangements) by themselves or karyotypes are the main global warming adaptive target of natural selection, two Drosophila subobscura Serbian populations (Apatin and Petnica) were re analyzed using different statistical approaches. Both populations were sampled in an approximately 15 years period: Apatin in 1994 and 2008 + 2009 and Petnica in 1995 and 2010. For all chromosomes, the four collections studied were in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Thus, it seems that inversions (or arrangements) combined at random to constitute populations" karyotypes. However, there were differences in karyotypic fre quencies along the years, although they were significant only for Apatin population. It is possible to conclude that inversions (or arrangements) are likely the target of natural selection, because they presented long term changes, but combine at random to generate the corresponding karyotypic combinations. As a consequence, the frequencies of karyotypes also change along time.

Minimal requirements for parameters to be used for the development of predictive models for microbial source tracking. The example of the pair somatic coliphages and phages infecting Bacteroides

Several methods and approaches for measuring parameters to determine fecal sources of pollution in water have been developed in recent years. No single microbial or chemical parameter has proved sufficient to determine the source of fecal pollution. Combinations of parameters involving at least one discriminating indicator and one universal fecal indicator offer the most promising solutions for qualitative and quantitative analyses. The universal (nondiscriminating) fecal indicator provides quantitative information regarding the fecal load. The discriminating indicator contributes to the identification of a specific source. The relative values of the parameters derived from both kinds of indicators could provide information regarding the contribution to the total fecal load from each origin. It is also essential that both parameters characteristically persist in the environment for similar periods. Numerical analysis, such as inductive learning methods, could be used to select the most suitable and the lowest number of parameters to develop predictive models. These combinations of parameters provide information on factors affecting the models, such as dilution, specific types of animal source, persistence of microbial tracers, and complex mixtures from different sources. The combined use of the enumeration of somatic coliphages and the enumeration of Bacteroides-phages using different host specific strains (one from humans and another from pigs), both selected using the suggested approach, provides a feasible model for quantitative and qualitative analyses of fecal source identification.

A model for the evolution of reinforcement learning in fluctuating games

Many species are able to learn to associate behaviours with rewards as this gives fitness advantages in changing environments. Social interactions between population members may, however, require more cognitive abilities than simple trial-and-error learning, in particular the capacity to make accurate hypotheses about the material payoff consequences of alternative action combinations. It is unclear in this context whether natural selection necessarily favours individuals to use information about payoffs associated with nontried actions (hypothetical payoffs), as opposed to simple reinforcement of realized payoff. Here, we develop an evolutionary model in which individuals are genetically determined to use either trial-and-error learning or learning based on hypothetical reinforcements, and ask what is the evolutionarily stable learning rule under pairwise symmetric two-action stochastic repeated games played over the individual's lifetime. We analyse through stochastic approximation theory and simulations the learning dynamics on the behavioural timescale, and derive conditions where trial-and-error learning outcompetes hypothetical reinforcement learning on the evolutionary timescale. This occurs in particular under repeated cooperative interactions with the same partner. By contrast, we find that hypothetical reinforcement learners tend to be favoured under random interactions, but stable polymorphisms can also obtain where trial-and-error learners are maintained at a low frequency. We conclude that specific game structures can select for trial-and-error learning even in the absence of costs of cognition, which illustrates that cost-free increased cognition can be counterselected under social interactions.

Conservation of Campomanesia adamantium (CAMB.) O. berg seeds in different packaging and at varied temperatures

This article aims at evaluating the effects of different packaging and varied storage temperatures on the germination potential of seeds of Campomanesia adamantium Camb. O. Berg. The seeds were packaged in glass, aluminum foil and plastic containers, or maintained inside intact fruits at 5, 10 and 15 ºC during 0, 7, 14 and 21 days. After these periods the seeds were sown in Germitest® germination paper and maintained in incubation chambers at 25 ºC under constant white light for 42 days. Seed moisture contents were evaluated both before and after storage, as well as germination percentages, germination speed index, root and aerial portion of seedlings lengths, and total dry weights. All possible combinations of packing materials, temperatures and storage times were tested, with four repetitions of 25 seeds for each treatment. C. adamantium seeds showed initial water contents of 31.5%. Glass and aluminum packaging were efficient at maintaining the water content of the seeds, and provided greater germination speed index than the other packaging materials. Germination percentages, seedlings lengths and dry weights did not vary among the different temperatures tested. C. adamantium seeds can be stored for up to 21 days at temperatures between 5 and 15 ºC without altering their physiological quality. In terms of cost-benefit efficiencies, these seeds can be stored without significant damage for 21 days while still inside the fruits at temperatures of 5, 10 or 15 ºC.

Antihypertensive Combination Treatment: State of the Art.

An adequate control of blood pressure is essential to reduce the risk of target organ damages and cardiovascular events in patients with hypertension. Yet, it is well recognized that a substantial proportion of treated patients remain hypertensive despite treatment. Several reasons have been evoked to explain why so many patients are not adequately controlled. Among them, medical inertia, a poor long-term adherence, and the need to prescribe several antihypertensive drugs to reach the target blood pressure have been identified as major limitations to the success of antihypertensive therapy. In this context, the use of single-pill combinations (SPC) containing two or three drugs in one pill has an important role in reducing the impact of some of these issues. Indeed, the use of SPC enables to reduce the pill burden and to improve the treatment efficacy without increasing the incidence of side effects. However, besides their major advantages, SPC have also some limitations such as a possible lack of flexibility or a higher cost. The purpose of this review is to discuss the place of SPC in the actual management of hypertension. The active development of new single-pill combinations in last years can be considered as a significant improvement in the physicians' capacity to treat hypertension effectively.