The risk of drought

This section of the report summarises the effect of different levels of climate change on risk of drought.

Transcriptomics and proteomics show that selenium affects inflammation, ctoskeleton, and cancer pathways in human rectal biopsies

Epidemiologic studies highlight the potential role of dietary selenium (Se) in colorectal cancer prevention. Our goal was to elucidate whether expression of factors crucial for colorectal homoeostasis is affected by physiologic differences in Se status. Using transcriptomics and proteomics followed by pathway analysis, we identified pathways affected by Se status in rectal biopsies from 22 healthy adults, including 11 controls with optimal status (mean plasma Se = 1.43 μM) and 11 subjects with suboptimal status (mean plasma Se = 0.86 μM). We observed that 254 genes and 26 proteins implicated in cancer (80%), immune function and inflammatory response (40%), cell growth and proliferation (70%), cellular movement, and cell death (50%) were differentially expressed between the 2 groups. Expression of 69 genes, including selenoproteins W1 and K, which are genes involved in cytoskeleton remodelling and transcription factor NFκB signaling, correlated significantly with Se status. Integrating proteomics and transcriptomics datasets revealed reduced inflammatory and immune responses and cytoskeleton remodelling in the suboptimal Se status group. This is the first study combining omics technologies to describe the impact of differences in Se status on colorectal expression patterns, revealing that suboptimal Se status could alter inflammatory signaling and cytoskeleton in human rectal mucosa and so influence cancer risk.

Recurrent sores by ill-fitting dentures and intra-oral squamous cell carcinoma in smokers

Objectives: To examine whether denture use and recurrent sores caused by ill-fitting dentures are associated with intra-oral squamous cell carcinoma (IO-SCC) in individuals exposed to tobacco. Methods: We conducted a hospital-based case-control study. The study population comprised 124 patients with IO-SCC and the same number of controls (individually paired according to gender and age) recruited from outpatient units of the same hospital. Conditional logistic regression analysis assessed the effect of denture use and recurrent oral sores by ill-fitting dentures, adjusted by covariates on the lifetime exposure to alcohol and tobacco, socioeconomic standings, and dietary patterns. Results: The use of dentures showed no association with IO-SCC [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.40, 95 percent confidence interval 0.51-3.87, P = 0.513] in an assessment controlled by socioeconomic position, lifetime exposure to alcohol and tobacco, and dietary patterns. However, the report of recurrent sores caused by ill-fitting dentures showed significant association with the disease (adjusted OR 4.58, 95 percent confidence interval 1.52-13.76, P = 0.007). Conclusions: The association between recurrent oral sores caused by ill-fitting dentures and squamous cell carcinoma of the mouth in smokers is in agreement with the hypothesis that the chronic physical irritation of oral mucosa contributes to the topical carcinogenic effect of tobacco, which must be taken into careful consideration in the planning of dental services for adults and the elderly.

Risk of Giardia infection for drinking water and bathing in a peri-urban area in Sao Paulo, Brazil

A high incidence of waterborne diseases is observed worldwide and in order to address contamination problems prior to an outbreak, quantitative microbial risk assessment is a useful tool for estimating the risk of infection. The objective of this paper was to assess the probability of Giardia infection from consuming water from shallow wells in a peri-urban area. Giardia has been described as an important waterborne pathogen and reported in several water sources, including ground waters. Sixteen water samples were collected and examined according to the US EPA (1623, 2005). A Monte Carlo method was used to address the potential risk as described by the exponential dose response model. Giardia cysts occurred in 62.5% of the samples (0.1-36.1 cysts/l). A median risk of 10-1 for the population was estimated and the adult ingestion was the highest risk driver. This study illustrates the vulnerability of shallow well water supply systems in peri-urban areas.

Women's perceptions of familial aspects of breast cancer

Women’s understanding of familial aspects of breast cancer was examined using both focus groups and interviews. The studies covered issues related to perceptions of breast cancer risk factors, perceived breast cancer risk, understanding of risk information, and family history of breast cancer as a risk factor. Study 1 consisted of four focus group discussions with women from the general community. Study 2 comprised ten face-to-face interviews with women who had a family history of breast cancer. The results in combination indicate a fairly high level of awareness of family history as a risk factor for breast cancer. However, the definition of a familial history of breast cancer differed between the groups, with those without a family history being more inclusive than those with such a history. The paper concludes with suggestions for use by those developing resources materials for those with a familial history of breast cancer.

The management of adolescents at risk of suicide by Australian general practitioners: issues in practice and confidence

This study involved an anonymous survey of 41Victorian GPs regarding their diagnostic and treatment practices with adolescent patients with depression and/or suicide ideation. The results indicated that the majority of respondents correctly diagnosed the level of depression and the risk of suicide in a case scenario. Although they commonly asked some of the questions related to an assessment of suicide risk, they rarely conducted a comprehensive risk assessment and the level of referral to telephone and internet crisis services was poor. Most GPs indicated a lack of confidence in their ability to detect and manage depression and suicide in this population and strongly emphasized a need for more training.

Ovarian cancer

Ovarian cancer is the leading cause of death from gynaecological cancers in women in Australia. Reproductive factors related to lifetime oestrogen exposure and obesity are linked to increasing risk of ovarian cancer and the typical Western diet, which is low in plant-based foods and high in red meat, has been implicated in raising ovarian cancer risk for which the use of herbal therapies is common in treating women with ovarian cancer, though few women consult a health practitioner for advice on usage and indications.

Is the risk of illness through consuming vegetables irrigated with reclaimed wastewater different for different population groups?

The use of reclaimed wastewater for irrigation of horticultural crops is commonplace in many parts of the world and is likely to increase. Concerns about risks to human health arising from such practice, especially with respect to infection with microbial pathogens, are common. Several factors need to be considered when attempting to quantify the risk posed to a population, such as the concentration of pathogens in the source water, water treatment efficiency, the volume of water coming into contact with the crop, and the die-off rate of pathogens in the environment. Another factor, which has received relatively less attention, is the amount of food consumed. Plainly, higher consumption rates place one at greater risk of becoming infected. The amount of vegetables consumed is known to vary among ethic groups. We use Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Modelling (QMRA) to see if certain ethnic groups are exposed to higher risks by virtue of their consumption behaviour. The results suggest that despite the disparities in consumption rates by different ethnic groups they generally all faced comparable levels of risks. We conclude by suggesting that QMRA should be used to assess the relative levels of risk faced by groups based on divisions other than ethnicity, such as those with compromised immune systems.

Pressure injury: an exploration of the relationship between risk factors and interface pressure

Pressure injuries are a serious risk for patients admitted to hospital and are thought to result from a number of forces operating on skin tissue (pressure, shear and friction). Most research on interface pressure (IP) has taken place using healthy volunteers or mannequins. Little is currently known about the relationship between pressure injury risk and IP for hospital patients. This relationship was investigated with a sample of 121 adult hospital patients. Pressure injury risk was evaluated using the Waterlow Risk Assessment Tool (WRAT) and IP was measured at the sacrum using a Tekscan ClinSeatTM IP sensor mat. Other factors considered were body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, reason for hospital admission, comorbidities and admission route to hospital. Patients were classified according to WRAT categories (‘low risk’, ‘at risk’, ‘high risk’, ‘very high risk’) and then remained still on a standard hospital mattress for 10 minutes while IP was measured. Participants in the ‘low risk’ group were significantly younger than all other groups (p<0.001) and there were some group differences in BMI. IP readings were compared between the ‘low risk’ group and all of the participants at greater risk. The ‘low risk’ group had significantly lower IP at the sacrum on a standard hospital mattress than those at greater risk (p=0.002). Those at greater risk tended to have IP readings at the low end of the compromised IP range. This study is significant because it describes a new, clinically relevant methodology and presents findings that challenge clinician assumptions about the relationships between pressure injury risk assessment and IP.

Health impact assessment : environmental management vs healthy public policy perspective - exploring the nexus between the two

This paper will explore the links between the traditional role of HIA in an environmental management context and the new and emerging trend internationally to subject government policy to prospective HIA.  The goal of this new iteration of HIA is to develop healthy public policy across all sectors of government creating a more inclusive and evidence-based approach to public policy formation.  The risk-based, health protection approach is more widely understood, as it draws on existing health protection experience and is allied with risk assessment theory.  The new model is based on the health promotion perspective, and emphasizes social determinants of public health.  This latter approach draws on the foundations of the former.  It is vital that the links between the two are therefore considered especially from the perspective of transfer of knowledge between the two.  The paper will explore the similarities, the differences, the tensions and the lessons that can be learned.  It will report on the progress of a national study being conducted by Mary Mahoney and Gillian Durham that is looking at what is happening (or has happened) in other countires including Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom

Risk items associated with patient falls in oncology and medical settings

The aim of this study was to determine whether items on a falls risk-assessment tool, made up of brief cognitive and physical measures that nurses use in practice, differentiated fallers and nonfallers in oncology and medical settings. A measure of leg muscle strength clearly distinguished between fallers and nonfallers, with the latter having stronger leg muscles. For nursing practice, the assessment of patients' muscle strength seems to be the most useful scale for identifying potential fallers.

Fire fighters' assessments of fireground risk

Fire fighters are often required to work in dynamic and hazardous environments involving a high level of uncertainty. The present study investigated 110 volunteer fire fighters’ assessments of levels of risk associated with a photographic depiction of a typical grassland fire situation. The fire fighters used a standard fire agency risk-rating matrix procedure requiring them to specify the severity of the hazards depicted and the probability of a mishap in order to rate overall level of risk (1 = Low; 4 = Extreme). The risk ratings made by the fire fighters varied greatly. The overall rate of agreement with the risk level rating of the situation made by a panel of expert fire officers (=1, Low) was only 27%. It seems that use of a standard risk-rating matrix procedure by fire fighters at incidents, as recommended currently by many fire agencies, is likely to result in unreliable risk assessments, at least in the absence of effective training in the risk assessment procedure. The 110 volunteers were also asked to identify the total number of potential hazards apparent in five photographs depicting different kinds of emergency incidents. Identifying more hazards was found to be associated with (a) previous personal experience of a ‘near-miss’; and (b) higher levels of education. The findings imply that when faced with identical fire ground situations, individual fire fighters are likely to differ in their situational awareness of hazards and consequent risk assessments.

Sculpting fog: attempting to define "acceptable risk" in emergency services.

There is currently no consensus as to how “acceptable risk” should be defined in emergency service response. Attempts to address this have relied upon the assumption that a probabilistic model of risk can be calculated and that acceptable levels of risk can be determined. Examples of this process can be seen in a number of emergency services, e.g. dynamic risk assessment utilised by a number of fire services.

Safeguarding Australia from cyber-terrorism : a proposed cyber-terrorism SCADA risk framework for Australia

Terrorist groups are currently using information and communication technologies (ICTs) to orchestrate their conventional physical attacks. More recently, terrorists have been developing a new form of capability within the cyber-arena to coordinate cyber-based attacks. This paper identifies that cyber-terrorism capabilities are an integral, imperative, yet under-researched component in establishing, and enhancing cyber-terrorism risk assessment models for SCADA systems. This paper is an extension of work previously published by Beggs and
Warren 2008, it presents a high level overview of a cyber-terrorism SCADA risk framework that has been adopted and validated by SCADA industry practitioners. The paper proposes a managerial framework which is designed to measure and protect SCADA systems from the threat of cyber-terrorism within Australia. The findings and results of an industry focus group are presented in support of the developed framework for SCADA industry adoption and acceptance.

Dietary patterns across the life course, mammographic density and implications for breast cancer : results from a British prospective cohort

Background : Previous epidemiological studies have investigated the relationship between individual nutrients such as vitamin D and vitamin B12 and mammographic density, a strong marker of breast cancer risk [1], with varied results. There has been limited research on overall dietary patterns and most studies have focused on adult dietary patterns [2]. We examine prospective data to determine whether dietary patterns from childhood to adult life affect mammographic density.

Methods : The Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development is a national representative sample of 2,815 men and 2,547 women followed since their birth in March 1946 [3]. A wealth of medical and social data has been collected in over 25 follow-ups by home visits, medical examinations and postal questionnaires. Dietary intakes at age 4 years were determined by 24-hour recalls and in adulthood (ages 36, 43 years) by 5-day food records. Copies of the mammograms (two views for each breast) taken when the women were closest to age 50 years were obtained from the relevant NHS centres. A total of 1,319 women were followed up since birth in 1946 for whom a mammogram at age 50 years was retrieved, and the percentage mammographic density was measured using the computer-assisted threshold method for all 1,161 women. Breast cancer incidence for the whole cohort is being ascertained through the National Health Service Central Register.

Statistical analysis : Reduced rank regression analysis, a relatively new approach to dietary pattern analysis, is being used to identify dietary patterns associated with mammographic density [4]. This approach identifies patterns in food intake that are predictive of an intermediate outcome of the disease process, such as mammographic density, and subsequently examines the relationship between the identified dietary patterns and breast cancer risk.

Results : Preliminary analyses so far suggest that variations in dietary patterns in adulthood might explain more than 10% of the variation in percentage mammographic density at age 50 years (age 36 years: 13%; age 43 years: 14%), with variations in patterns in childhood explaining slightly less. Further work is being carried out on the characteristics of these dietary patterns and their effects on percentage mammographic density and its two components (that is, absolute areas of dense and nondense tissues) and on breast cancer risk, after adjusting for socioeconomic status, anthropometric variables and reproductive factors.

Conclusion : The present study will provide for the first time information on the relationship between dietary patterns across the life course and mammographic density, and will help to clarify the pathways through which diet may affect breast cancer risk.