Predicting how many animals will be where: how to build, calibrate and evaluate individual-based models

Individual-based models (IBMs) can simulate the actions of individual animals as they interact with one another and the landscape in which they live. When used in spatially-explicit landscapes IBMs can show how populations change over time in response to management actions. For instance, IBMs are being used to design strategies of conservation and of the exploitation of fisheries, and for assessing the effects on populations of major construction projects and of novel agricultural chemicals. In such real world contexts, it becomes especially important to build IBMs in a principled fashion, and to approach calibration and evaluation systematically. We argue that insights from physiological and behavioural ecology offer a recipe for building realistic models, and that Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a promising technique for the calibration and evaluation of IBMs. IBMs are constructed primarily from knowledge about individuals. In ecological applications the relevant knowledge is found in physiological and behavioural ecology, and we approach these from an evolutionary perspective by taking into account how physiological and behavioural processes contribute to life histories, and how those life histories evolve. Evolutionary life history theory shows that, other things being equal, organisms should grow to sexual maturity as fast as possible, and then reproduce as fast as possible, while minimising per capita death rate. Physiological and behavioural ecology are largely built on these principles together with the laws of conservation of matter and energy. To complete construction of an IBM information is also needed on the effects of competitors, conspecifics and food scarcity; the maximum rates of ingestion, growth and reproduction, and life-history parameters. Using this knowledge about physiological and behavioural processes provides a principled way to build IBMs, but model parameters vary between species and are often difficult to measure. A common solution is to manually compare model outputs with observations from real landscapes and so to obtain parameters which produce acceptable fits of model to data. However, this procedure can be convoluted and lead to over-calibrated and thus inflexible models. Many formal statistical techniques are unsuitable for use with IBMs, but we argue that ABC offers a potential way forward. It can be used to calibrate and compare complex stochastic models and to assess the uncertainty in their predictions. We describe methods used to implement ABC in an accessible way and illustrate them with examples and discussion of recent studies. Although much progress has been made, theoretical issues remain, and some of these are outlined and discussed.

Biodiversity and green open space

Biodiversity has been defined as the totality of genes, species, and ecosystems that inhabit the earth with the field contributing to many aspects of our lives and livelihoods by providing us with food, drink, medicines and shelter, as well as contributing to improving our surrounding environment. Benefits include providing life services through improved horticultural production, improving the business and service of horticulture as well as our environment, as well as improving our health and wellbeing, and our social and cultural relationships. Threats to biodiversity can include fragmentation, degradation and deforestation of habitat, introduction of invasive and exotic species, climate change and extreme weather events, over-exploitation of our natural resources, hybridisation, genetic pollution/erosion and food security issues and human overpopulation. This chapter examines a series of examples that provide the dual aims of biodiversity conservation and horticultural production and service; namely organic horticultural cropping, turf management, and nature-based tourism, and ways of valuing biological biodiversity such as the payment of environmental services and bio-prospecting. Horticulture plays a major role in the preserving of biodiversity.

A decision framework for considering climate change adaptation in biodiversity conservation planning

General principles of climate change adaptation for biodiversity have been formulated, but do not help prioritize actions. This is inhibiting their integration into conservation planning. We address this need with a decision framework that identifies and prioritizes actions to increase the adaptive capacity of species. The framework classifies species according to their current distribution and projected future climate space, as a basis for selecting appropriate decision trees. Decisions rely primarily on expert opinion, with additional information from quantitative models, where data are available. The framework considers in-situ management, followed by interventions at the landscape scale and finally translocation or ex-situ conservation. Synthesis and applications: From eight case studies, the key interventions identified for integrating climate change adaptation into conservation planning were local management and expansion of sites. We anticipate that, in combination with consideration of socio-economic and local factors, the decision framework will be a useful tool for conservation and natural resource managers to integrate adaptation measures into conservation plans.

Season changes in water quality and Sargassum biomass in Southwest Australia

Sargassum C. Agardh is one of the most diverse genera of marine macro-algae and commonly inhabits shallow tropical and sub-tropical waters. This study aimed to investigate the effect of seasonality and the associated water quality changes on the distribution, canopy cover, mean thallus length and the biomass of Sargassum beds around Point Peron, Shoalwater Islands Marine Park, Southwest Australia. Samples of Sargassum and seawater were collected every three months from summer 2012 to summer 2014 from four different reef zones. A combination of in situ observations and WorldView-2 satellite remote-sensing images were used to map the spatial distribution of Sargassum beds and other associated benthic habitats. The results demonstrated a strong seasonal variation in the environmental parameters, canopy cover, mean thallus length, and biomass of Sargassum, which were significantly (P < 0.05) influenced by the nutrient concentration (PO43-, NO3-, NH4+) and rainfall. However, no variation in any studied parameter was observed among the four reef zones. The highest Sargassum biomass peaks occurred between late spring and early summer (from September to January). The results provide essential information to guide effective conservation and management, as well as sustainable utilisation of this coastal marine renewable resource.

Conservation in tropical landscape mosaics: the case of the cacao landscape of southern Bahia, Brazil

A recent debate has contrasted two conservation strategies in agricultural landscapes; either ""land sparing`` farm development combining intensive production practices with forest set-asides, or ""wildlife-friendly`` farming with greater on-farm habitat value but lower yields. We argue that in established mosaic landscapes including old cacao production regions where natural forest has already been reduced to relatively small fragments, a combination of both strategies is needed to conserve biodiversity. After reviewing the evidence for the insufficiency of either strategy alone if applied to such landscapes, the paper focuses on the cacao production landscape of southern Bahia, Brazil, once the world`s second largest cacao producer. Here, small remaining areas of Atlantic Forest are embedded in a matrix dominated by traditional cacao agroforests, resulting in a landscape mosaic that has proven favorable to the conservation of the region`s high biodiversity. We show that current land use dynamics and public policies pose threats but also offer opportunities to conservation and describe a three- pronged landscape conservation strategy, consisting of (i) expansion of the protected areas system, (ii) promotion of productive yet biodiversity-friendly cacao farming practices, and (iii) assistance to land users to implement legally mandated on-farm reserves and voluntary private reserves. We discuss recent experiences concerning the implementation of this strategy, discuss likely future scenarios, and reflect on the applicability of the Bahian experience to biodiversity rich cacao production regions elsewhere in the tropics.

An evaluation of three upwinding approximations for numerical modeling the flow in tubular membrane of Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluids

In this paper, the laminar fluid flow of Newtonian and non-Newtonian of aqueous solutions in a tubular membrane is numerically studied. The mathematical formulation, with associated initial and boundary conditions for cylindrical coordinates, comprises the mass conservation, momentum conservation and mass transfer equations. These equations are discretized by using the finite-difference technique on a staggered grid system. Comparisons of the three upwinding schemes for discretization of the non-linear (convective) terms are presented. The effects of several physical parameters on the concentration profile are investigated. The numerical results compare favorably with experimental data and the analytical solutions. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An unstructured CVFEM and moving interface algorithm for non-Newtonian Hele-Shaw flows in injection molding

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to develop a novel unstructured simulation approach for injection molding processes described by the Hele-Shaw model. Design/methodology/approach - The scheme involves dual dynamic meshes with active and inactive cells determined from an initial background pointset. The quasi-static pressure solution in each timestep for this evolving unstructured mesh system is approximated using a control volume finite element method formulation coupled to a corresponding modified volume of fluid method. The flow is considered to be isothermal and non-Newtonian. Findings - Supporting numerical tests and performance studies for polystyrene described by Carreau, Cross, Ellis and Power-law fluid models are conducted. Results for the present method are shown to be comparable to those from other methods for both Newtonian fluid and polystyrene fluid injected in different mold geometries. Research limitations/implications - With respect to the methodology, the background pointset infers a mesh that is dynamically reconstructed here, and there are a number of efficiency issues and improvements that would be relevant to industrial applications. For instance, one can use the pointset to construct special bases and invoke a so-called ""meshless"" scheme using the basis. This would require some interesting strategies to deal with the dynamic point enrichment of the moving front that could benefit from the present front treatment strategy. There are also issues related to mass conservation and fill-time errors that might be addressed by introducing suitable projections. The general question of ""rate of convergence"" of these schemes requires analysis. Numerical results here suggest first-order accuracy and are consistent with the approximations made, but theoretical results are not available yet for these methods. Originality/value - This novel unstructured simulation approach involves dual meshes with active and inactive cells determined from an initial background pointset: local active dual patches are constructed ""on-the-fly"" for each ""active point"" to form a dynamic virtual mesh of active elements that evolves with the moving interface.

Can qualitative methods support the development of more flexible and energy saving thermal comfort?

This paper uses examples from a Swedish study to suggest some ways in which cultural variation could be included in studies of thermal comfort. It is shown how only a slight shift of focus and methodological approach could help us discover aspects of human life that add to previous knowledge within comfort research of how human beings perceive and handle warmth and cold. It is concluded that it is not enough for buildings, heating systems and thermal control devices to be energy-efficient in a mere technical sense. If these are to help to decrease, rather than to increase, energy consumption, they have to support those parts of already existing habits and modes of thought that have the potential for low energy use. This is one reason why culture-specific features and emotional cores need to be investigated and deployed into the study and development of thermal comfort.

Energieffektivisering av klimatskal med hänsyn till kulturhistorisk värdering : Fallstudier av tre befintliga småhus från 1900-talet ur bevarandesynpunkt

Allt hårdare lagkrav gör att det är svårt att energieffektivisera befintliga byggnader utan att förändra deras utseende. Syftet med examensarbetet är att utreda hur stor energieffektivisering, för tre befintliga småhus uppförda under 1900-talet, som är möjlig att uppnå genom förbättring av byggnadernas klimatskal, det vill säga tak, väggar, golv, fönster och dörrar, utan att förvanska byggnadernas utseende och samtidigt bevara deras kulturhistoriska värden. Arbetet bestod av en förstudie där tre byggnader identifierades, ett undersökningsskede där information om byggnaderna togs fram och ett slutsatsskede där energibesparande åtgärdsförslag togs fram och utvärderades. Byggnader som var goda representanter för sin tid och stil söktes. Byggnader från 1910-talet, 1930-talet och 1970-talet, lokaliserades. Sedan gjordes det fallstudier med intervjuer och inventeringar. För att utreda byggnadens klimatskal utfördes u-värdesberäkningar och energiberäkningar av befintliga byggander och byggnader baserade på föreslagna åtgärdsförslag. Ingen av byggnaderna nådde efter föreslagna åtgärder ner till passivhuskravet 59 kWh/år/m2 Atemp eller BBR-kravet 110 kWh/år/m2 Atemp för en byggnads specifika energianvändning. Den största möjliga energieffektivisering för de tre byggnaderna uppförda under 1900-talet, som är möjlig att uppnå utan att förvanska byggnadernas utseende och samtidigt bevara deras kulturhistoriska värden är 13,0 kWh/år/m2 Atemp, 49,7 kWh/år/m2 Atemp respektive 64,8 kWh/år/m2 Atemp. Slutsatser från arbetet är att byggnader från 1910-tal kan åtgärdas genom att isolera fönstren, sätta dit en extra dörr på insidan av ytterdörren samt tilläggsisolera snedtaket. Byggnader från 1930-tal kan åtgärdas genom att isolera fönstren med en isolerruta på insidan av fönstret och dörrarna med en extra dörr på insidan av ytterdörren. Byggnader från 1970-tal kan åtgärda fönstren genom att byta ut dem till energifönster, ingen åtgärd för golvet men fasaden isoleras utvändigt med vakuumisolering. Byggnaden från 1970-talet klarade sig bäst i jämförelsen eftersom den var i autentiskt skick från början vilket gjorde att förbättringen blev större än för till exempel byggnaden från 1910-talet som redan var ombyggd innan åtgärder föreslogs.

Cultura é desenvolvimento:um panorama da atuação do BNDES em projetos de restauro (1997-2007)

Este estudo tem por objetivo analisar a atuação do Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES) em projetos de preservação do patrimônio edificado brasileiro. Para tanto, é traçada a trajetória de apoio à cultura percorrida pelo BNDES ao longo dos anos, com ênfase nos projetos selecionados no âmbito da Lei Rouanet no período de 1997 a 2007. O resultado é um panorama histórico que explica em que momento – e de que forma – a cultura entrou na pauta de discussão do BNDES e, mais precisamente, como, dentro do campo cultural, ocorreu a opção responsável por transformar o BNDES, maior banco de desenvolvimento da América Latina, no principal patrocinador de ações de restauração, conservação e adaptação do patrimônio nacional.

Normas jurídicas para a restauração ecológica: uma barreira a mais a dificultar o êxito das iniciativas?

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Análise da bacia hidrográfica do Rio Punaú-Rio Grande do Norte utilizando ferramentas de geoprocessamento

Provide data and information on watershed becomes important since the knowledge of their physical characteristics, land use, etcetera, allows for better planning and sustainable use of economically, socially and environmentally in this area. The investigation of the physical environment has been commonly given with the use of geoprocessing, which has proved a very efficient tool. Within this context, this research aims at analyzing the river basin Punaú (located in the cities of Touros, Rio do Fogo and Pureza, state of Rio Grande do Norte) in several aspects, using geoprocessing as a tool of work, to provide information about the entire watershed. Specifically, this study aimed to update pre-existing maps, such as geological, geomorphological and land use, generating map of environmental vulnerability, under the aspect of erosion susceptibility of the area, generating map of legal incompatibility, identifying areas that are already being employed in breach of environmental legislation; propose solutions to the occupation of the river basin Punaú, focused on environmental planning. The methodology was based on the use of geoprocessing tools for data analysis and to make maps of legal incompatibility and environmental vulnerability. For the first map was taken into account the environmental legislation regarding the protection of watersheds. For the vulnerability analysis, the generated map was the result of crossing the maps of geology, geomorphology, soils and land use, having been assigned weights to different attributes of thematic maps, generating a map of environmental vulnerability in relation to susceptibility to erosion. The analysis results indicate that agriculture is the most significant activity in the basin, in total occupied area, which confers a high degree of environmental vulnerability in most of the basin, and some agricultural areas eventually develop in a manner inconsistent with Brazilian environmental legislation. It is proposed to consider deploying a measure of revitalization of the watershed in more critical areas and conservation through mitigation measures on the causes of environmental degradation, such as protection of water sources, protection and restoration of riparian vegetation, protection of permanent preservation areas, containment of erosion processes in general, and others listed or not in specific laws, and even the establishment of a committee of basins in the area

PET containers in Brazil: Opportunities and challenges of a logistics model for post-consumer waste recycling

The use of post-consumer materials is directly related to reducing the cost of production and extraction of natural resources. Non-recyclable materials are randomly disposed in the environment. Brazil is one of the largest consumers of PET (polyethylene terephthalate) bottles. The purpose of this paper is to describe the opportunities and challenges of the logistics model for post-consumer PET bottle recycling in Brazil, while providing knowledge of its practices along the recycling chain. The results describe the need to educate those directly and indirectly involved in the process: to reduce consumption in order to reduce the amount of waste generated: to structure the post-consumer reverse chain and engage industrial sectors and government, through public policies, to support cleaner technologies along the PET bottle production chain. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The limits of human development and the use of energy and natural resources

The development of nations is an unquestionable requirement. A lot of challenges concerning health, education and economy are present. A discussion on these development models has occupied the minds of decision makers in recent years. When energy supply and demand is considered, the situation becomes critical and the crucial question is: how to improve the quality of life of developing countries based on available models of development that are related to the life style of developed countries, for which the necessary use and waste of energy are present? How much energy is essential to humanity for not so as to endangering the survival conditions of future generations? the human development index (HDI) establishes the relationship among energy use, economic growth and social growth. Here it can be seen that 75% of the world population has a significant energy consumption potential. This is a strong reason to consider that the sustainable development concepts on energy policies are strategic to the future of the planet. This paper deals with the importance of seeking alternative development models for human development balance, natural resources conservation and environment through rational energy use concepts. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of soil management systems on soil microbial activity, bulk density and chemical properties

Este trabalho teve por objetivo estudar os efeitos de diferentes sistemas de uso e manejo na densidade do solo nas suas propriedades químicas e na atividade microbiana em um Latossolo Vermelho distrófico (Oxisol). As amostras de solo foram retiradas de parcelas dos seguintes tratamentos: cerrado denso preservado, pastagem de Brachiaria decumbens degradada (20 anos), plantio direto com rotação de culturas (8 anos) e sistema convencional com rotação de culturas anuais (10 anos). O delineamento experimental utilizado foi o inteiramente casualizado, com dez repetições. O uso contínuo de plantio direto resultou em mais alta taxa de C-biomassa microbiana e menor perda relativa de carbono pela respiração basal, podendo determinar, desta forma, maior acúmulo de C no solo a longo prazo. Proporcionou, ainda, melhoria na densidade aparente e nas propriedades químicas do solo. Assim, o sistema plantio direto, com manejo de culturas, mostrou ser uma alternativa para a conservação e manutenção das condições físicas e do potencial produtivo de solos de cerrado.