Fourth order pseudo maximum likelihood methods

We extend PML theory to account for information on the conditional moments up to order four, but without assuming a parametric model, to avoid a risk of misspecification of the conditional distribution. The key statistical tool is the quartic exponential family, which allows us to generalize the PML2 and QGPML1 methods proposed in Gourieroux et al. (1984) to PML4 and QGPML2 methods, respectively. An asymptotic theory is developed. The key numerical tool that we use is the Gauss-Freud integration scheme that solves a computational problem that has previously been raised in several fields. Simulation exercises demonstrate the feasibility and robustness of the methods [Authors]

Antimicrobial susceptibility determined by the E test, Löwenstein-Jensen proportion, and DNA sequencing methods among Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates discrepancies, preliminary results

Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains resistant to streptomycin (SM), isoniazid (INH), and/or rifampin (RIF) as determined by the conventional Löwenstein-Jensen proportion method (LJPM) were compared with the E test, a minimum inhibitory concentration susceptibility method. Discrepant isolates were further evaluated by BACTEC and by DNA sequence analyses for mutations in genes most often associated with resistance to these drugs (rpsL, katG, inhA, and rpoB). Preliminary discordant E test results were seen in 75% of isolates resistant to SM and in 11% to INH. Discordance improved for these two drugs (63%) for SM and none for INH when isolates were re-tested but worsened for RIF (30%). Despite good agreement between phenotypic results and sequencing analyses, wild type profiles were detected on resistant strains mainly for SM and INH. It should be aware that susceptible isolates according to molecular methods might contain other mechanisms of resistance. Although reproducibility of the LJPM susceptibility method has been established, variable E test results for some M. tuberculosis isolates poses questions regarding its reproducibility particularly the impact of E test performance which may vary among laboratories despite adherence to recommended protocols. Further studies must be done to enlarge the evaluated samples and looked possible mutations outside of the hot spot sequenced gene among discrepant strains.

Comparison between splenic and lymph node aspirations as sampling methods for the parasitological detection of Leishmania chagasi infection in dogs

The sensitivities of spleen and lymph node cultures for the diagnosis of canine visceral leishmaniasis were compared in 64 anti-Leishmania antibody positive dogs from an endemic area in Brazil. The sensitivity of spleen cultures for Leishmania detection was 97.9%; in lymph node cultures it was 25%. Positive spleen culture was more frequent (p = 0.048, Fisher's exact probability test) in symptomatic (28 out of 33 animals) than in asymptomatic animals (19 out of 31 animals). These results support the use of spleen instead of lymph node aspiration as the choice method for the parasitological diagnosis of the infection.

An empirical hierarchical Bayesian unification of occupational exposure assessment methods.

In occupational exposure assessment of airborne contaminants, exposure levels can either be estimated through repeated measurements of the pollutant concentration in air, expert judgment or through exposure models that use information on the conditions of exposure as input. In this report, we propose an empirical hierarchical Bayesian model to unify these approaches. Prior to any measurement, the hygienist conducts an assessment to generate prior distributions of exposure determinants. Monte-Carlo samples from these distributions feed two level-2 models: a physical, two-compartment model, and a non-parametric, neural network model trained with existing exposure data. The outputs of these two models are weighted according to the expert's assessment of their relevance to yield predictive distributions of the long-term geometric mean and geometric standard deviation of the worker's exposure profile (level-1 model). Bayesian inferences are then drawn iteratively from subsequent measurements of worker exposure. Any traditional decision strategy based on a comparison with occupational exposure limits (e.g. mean exposure, exceedance strategies) can then be applied. Data on 82 workers exposed to 18 contaminants in 14 companies were used to validate the model with cross-validation techniques. A user-friendly program running the model is available upon request.

Building Children and Young People's Resilience in Schools

Evidence Review 2 - Building children and young people's resilience in schools Briefing 2 - Building children and young people's resilience in schools This pair of documents, commissioned by Public Health England, and written by the UCL Institute of Health Equity, address the role of schools in building children and young people’s resilience and capabilities. They provide a summary of evidence about the effect of resilience on health, the unequal distribution of resilience and its contribution to levels of health inequalities. The review outlines the potential actions that can be taken in schools in order to build resilience for all children and young people and reduce inequalities in resilience. Throughout, a social determinants approach to resilience is taken. Children and young people’s individual characteristics are seen as shaped by, and related to, inequities in power, money and resources, and the conditions in which they are born, grow, live, and in which they will work and age. Family and community resilience are highly significant and similarly shaped by wider social and economic factors. The full evidence review and a shorter summary briefing are available to download above. This document is part of a series. An overview document which provides an introduction to this and other documents in the series, and links to the other topic areas, is available on the ‘Local Action on health inequalities’ project page. A video of Michael Marmot introducing the work is also available on our videos page.

Therapeutic drug monitoring of imatinib: Bayesian and alternative methods to predict trough levels

Background: The imatinib trough plasma concentration (C(min)) correlates with clinical response in cancer patients. Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) of plasma C(min) is therefore suggested. In practice, however, blood sampling for TDM is often not performed at trough. The corresponding measurement is thus only remotely informative about C(min) exposure. Objectives: The objectives of this study were to improve the interpretation of randomly measured concentrations by using a Bayesian approach for the prediction of C(min), incorporating correlation between pharmacokinetic parameters, and to compare the predictive performance of this method with alternative approaches, by comparing predictions with actual measured trough levels, and with predictions obtained by a reference method, respectively. Methods: A Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation method accounting for correlation (MAP-ρ) between pharmacokinetic parameters was developed on the basis of a population pharmacokinetic model, which was validated on external data. Thirty-one paired random and trough levels, observed in gastrointestinal stromal tumour patients, were then used for the evaluation of the Bayesian MAP-ρ method: individual C(min) predictions, derived from single random observations, were compared with actual measured trough levels for assessment of predictive performance (accuracy and precision). The method was also compared with alternative approaches: classical Bayesian MAP estimation assuming uncorrelated pharmacokinetic parameters, linear extrapolation along the typical elimination constant of imatinib, and non-linear mixed-effects modelling (NONMEM) first-order conditional estimation (FOCE) with interaction. Predictions of all methods were finally compared with 'best-possible' predictions obtained by a reference method (NONMEM FOCE, using both random and trough observations for individual C(min) prediction). Results: The developed Bayesian MAP-ρ method accounting for correlation between pharmacokinetic parameters allowed non-biased prediction of imatinib C(min) with a precision of ±30.7%. This predictive performance was similar for the alternative methods that were applied. The range of relative prediction errors was, however, smallest for the Bayesian MAP-ρ method and largest for the linear extrapolation method. When compared with the reference method, predictive performance was comparable for all methods. The time interval between random and trough sampling did not influence the precision of Bayesian MAP-ρ predictions. Conclusion: Clinical interpretation of randomly measured imatinib plasma concentrations can be assisted by Bayesian TDM. Classical Bayesian MAP estimation can be applied even without consideration of the correlation between pharmacokinetic parameters. Individual C(min) predictions are expected to vary less through Bayesian TDM than linear extrapolation. Bayesian TDM could be developed in the future for other targeted anticancer drugs and for the prediction of other pharmacokinetic parameters that have been correlated with clinical outcomes.

Comparison of methods for the identification of coagulase-negative staphylococci

Coagulase-negative staphylococci (CNS) species identification is still difficult for most clinical laboratories. The scheme proposed by Kloos and Schleifer and modified by Bannerman is the reference method used for the identification of staphylococcal species and subspecies; however, this method is relatively laborious for routine use since it requires the utilization of a large number of biochemical tests. The objective of the present study was to compare four methods, i.e., the reference method, the API Staph system (bioMérieux) and two methods modified from the reference method in our laboratory (simplified method and disk method), in the identification of 100 CNS strains. Compared to the reference method, the simplified method and disk method correctly identified 100 and 99% of the CNS species, respectively, while this rate was 84% for the API Staph system. Inaccurate identification by the API Staph method was observed for Staphylococcus epidermidis (2.2%), S. hominis (25%), S. haemolyticus (37.5%), and S. warneri (47.1%). The simplified method using the simple identification scheme proposed in the present study was found to be efficient for all strains tested, with 100% sensitivity and specificity and proved to be available alternative for the identification of staphylococci, offering, higher reliability and lower cost than the currently available commercial systems. This method would be very useful in clinical microbiology laboratory, especially in places with limited resources.

Methods for detection and confirmation of Hematide?/peginesatide in anti-doping samples.

Since the 1990's, cheating athletes have abused substances to increase their oxygen transport capabilities; among these substances, recombinant EPO is the most well known. Currently, other investigational pharmaceutical products are able to produce an effect similar to EPO but without having chemical structures related to EPO; these are the synthetic erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESAs). Peginesatide (also known as Hematide?) is being developed by Affymax and Takeda and, if approved by regulatory authorities, could soon be released on the international market. To detect potential athletic abuse of this product and deter athletes who consider cheating, we initiated a collaboration to implement a detection test for anti-doping purposes. Peginesatide is a synthetic, PEGylated, investigational, peptide-based erythropoiesis-stimulating agent that is designed and engineered to stimulate specifically the erythropoietin receptor dimer that governs erythropoiesis. It is undetectable using current anti-doping tests due to its lack of sequence homology to EPO. To detect and deter potential abuse of peginesatide, we initiated an industry/antidoping laboratory collaboration to develop and validate screening and confirmation assays so that they would be available before peginesatide reaches the market. We describe a screening ELISA and a confirmation assay consisting of immune-purification followed by separation with SDS-PAGE and revelation with Western double blotting. Both assays can detect 0.5 ng/mL concentrations of peginesatide in blood samples, enabling detection for several days after administration of a physiologically relevant dose. This initial report describes experimental characterization of these assays, including testing with a blinded set of samples from a clinical study conducted in healthy volunteers.

Building a Transition Community

Footprints is developing a Transition Community Initiative which will be another distinct area of work within the Healthy Living Project, as part of the group's ongoing endeavours to influence change within the Colin community, tackling health inequalities. The Building a Transition Community Initiative oversees the development of the grounds at Footprints Women's Centre and offers food growing training to local residents who will be encouraged to volunteer in the garden. A local gardener has been hired and oversees the development and training of the volunteers. The project will grow fruit and vegetables within the grounds of Footprints Women's Centre and this produce will be used within the Footprints Catering Services. Any supplies surplus to requirements will be used in schools in the neighbourhood. Skills learned by the volunteers will also be transferred to their gardens at home throughout the Colin neighbourhood. The aim is also to demonstrate how participation in this project will increase and improve the physical activity levels and mental wellbeing of residents. Part of theDemonstration Programme 2010-2012 Initiative Type Community Food Growing Projects Location Antrim Target Groups Women Partner Agencies safefood

From Naples 1963 to Rome 2013 - A brief review of how the International Research Group on Ostracoda (IRGO) developed as a social communication system

The 1st International Symposium on Ostracoda (ISO) was held in Naples (1963). The philosophy behind this symposium and the logical outcome of what is now known as the International Research Group on Ostracoda (IRGO) is here reviewed, namely ostracodology over the last 50 years is sociologically analysed. Three different and important historic moments for the scientific achievements of this domain are recognised. The first one, between about 1963-1983, is related to applied research for the oil industry as well as to the great interest in the better description of the marine environment by both zoologists and palaeontologists. Another important aspect during this period was the work by researchers dealing with Palaeozoic ostracods, who had their own discussion group, IRGPO. Gradually, the merger of this latter group with those dealing with post-Palaeozoic ostracods at various meetings improved communication between the two groups of specialists. A second period was approximately delineated between 1983 and 2003. During this time-slice, more emphasis was addressed to environmental research with topics such as the study of global events and long-term climate change. Ostracodologists profited also from the research "politics" within national and international programmes. Large international research teams emerged using new research methods. During the third period (2003-2013), communication and collaborative research reached a global dimension. Amongst the topics of research we cite the reconstruction of palaeoclimate using transfer functions, the building of large datasets of ostracod distributions for regional and intercontinental studies, and the implementation of actions that should lead to taxonomic harmonisation. Projects within which molecular biological techniques are routinely used, combined with sophisticated morphological information, expanded now in their importance. The documentation of the ostracod description improved through new techniques to visualise morphological details, which stimulated also communication between ostracodologists. Efforts of making available ostracod information through newsletters and electronic media are evoked.

Inequalities in Old Age: The impact of the recession on older people in Ireland, North and South CARDI Grants

Inequalities in Old Age: the impact of the recession on older people in Ireland, North and SouthAbout the research:This research, led by Professor Paddy Hillyard, Emeritus Professor Queen’s University Belfast, was carried out with funding from CARDI’s Grants Programme Call 2. The purpose of the study was to analyse the impact of the recession on older people in Northern Ireland (NI) and the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and the extent to which inequalities within the older population have been affected by the economic crisis.Research Brief:This brief, authored by CARDI staff, is based on the findings of the research project and also contains additional information of interest.Research Team:Professor Paddy Hillyard, Emeritus Professor Queen’s University Belfast - lead researcher;Dr Francesca Lundstr̦m, Research Consultant;Dr Demi Patsios, Policy Research Consultant;Sarah Machniewski, Researcher;David Taylor, Chartered Accountant and Management Consultant;Dr Maureen Lyons, Research Manager, School of Social Justice, UCD.Methodology and availability of data:Several methods were used in the research, including:�� a review of relevant literature;����a detailed analysis of many databases relevant to older people’s incomes and lives;��building a model to assess the impact of the recession on older people;surveys of financial advisers in voluntary, private and public sectors;��six focus groups, three each in NI and RoI.Availability of data:Despite the huge amount of information which is officially collected and published in NI and RoI, very little is directly comparable. ��The development of a mechanism to encourage the production of more comparable data North and South would be very beneficial.��For example, this study identified a basket of 25 factors that can be used to compare the living standards of older people in NI and RoI and to monitor changes in future yearsTo access the full report please click on the following link:Inequalities in Old Age: the impact of the recession on older people in Ireland, North and SouthPlease find the presentation from the launch below:Inequalities, Pensions and the Recession by Prof Paddy Hillyard, Queen’s University Belfast and Dr Demi Patsios, Policy Research Consultant, Dr Francesca Lundstr̦m, Research Consultant.��������

Building Evidence for Dementia Prevention

As was the case in 2010 when the National Institutes of Health issued a consensus statement on the prevention of Alzheimer’s and other dementias, there remains a lack of firm evidence for dementia prevention. Because of the difficulties in studying this phenomenon, no modifiable risk factors for dementia have been definitively established, and no pharmaceutical or nutritional supplements been proven to prevent Alzheimer’s disease or cognitive decline. However, longitudinal observational studies have identified several factors associated with dementia. A recent review article summarizes the current epidemiological evidence about Alzheimer’s and other dementias, and presents three ongoing large scale randomized control trials (RCTs) that focus on preventing dementia. The review argues that there is substantial evidence for many factors that, in combination, might reduce the risk of, or delay the onset of, dementia. Although no specific cure for dementia exists, and no specific pathway between risk factor and disease onset has been identified, several cardiovascular, stress, toxicity, and psychosocial variables have been repeatedly associated with dementia. Protective factors, such as high education, physical exercise, and not smoking cigarettes, have been identified as well. Intervention studies that account for these multiple factors may well identify strategies for preventing or delaying dementia. However, the protective effects and risk factors suggested by observational data have yet to be assessed in RCT research. The role of such factors in reducing or increasing the risk for dementia needs to be more specifically defined. Three ongoing RCT studies in Europe show promise in this area, as they target multiple risk and protective factors by promoting healthy lifestyle changes and medical treatment of vascular diseases. These are: FINGER, a Finnish trial involving 1,200 older adults at risk for dementia. This intervention features nutritional guidance, physical activity, cognitive and social engagement, and medical management of risk factors. Participants were involved in previous, intensive observational studies of vascular health and health behavior, so FINGER will provide a level of relevant information about its research subjects that is normally impossible for clinical RCTs to attain;MAPT, a multicenter study of 1,680 frail older adults in France. This study will compare the efficacy of omega-3 dietary supplementation with a multidomain training intervention that involves physical and cognitive training. The study will include follow-up assessments after five years;PreDIVA, a Dutch study of 3,534 community dwelling participants between 70 and 78 years old, recruited from primary care clinics. This study will compare standard medical care with a multicomponent vascular health intervention. The study will last for six years and measure both dementia and disability outcomes. These studies are an important step in dementia research, using earlier observational studies as the basis for rigorously assessed interventions. Although a cure for dementia has not been identified, this new research may identify preventive strategies against dementia. �� Source: Mangialasche F, Kivipelto M, et al. (2012). Dementia prevention: current epidemiological evidence and future perspective. Alzheimer’s Research and Therapy 4:6.

Global burden of dementia in the year 2050: summary of methods and data sources

��The number of people suffering dementia will triple in the next 40 years, according to a new study by the World Health Organization, leading to catastrophic social and financial costs. Dementia, a brain illness that affects memory, behavior and the ability to perform even common tasks, affects mostly older people; Alzheimer's causes many cases. Read the report:Global burden of dementia in the year 2050: summary of methods and data sources

Building Consensus for the Future - Report of the Feasibility Study on Palliative Care for People with Dementia

The Alzheimer Society of Ireland have launched a report "Building Consensus for the Future: Report of the Feasibility Study on Palliative Care for People with Dementia".�� The report outlines the findings of a research project carried out in association with the Irish Hospice Foundation.

Relevé des consultations et des transferts de patients par enquête directe auprès des médecins: méthode d'une enquête, acceptabilité et limites d'interprétation. [Summary of consultations and transfer of patients by a direct survey of physicians: survey methods, acceptability and limits of interpretation].

A survey of medical ambulatory practice was carried out in February-March 1981 in the two Swiss cantons of Vaud and Fribourg (total population: 700,000), in which 205 physicians participated. The methodology used was inspired from the U.S. National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey, the data collection instrument of which was adapted to our conditions; in addition, data were gathered on all referrals prescribed by 154 physicians during two weeks. (The instruments used are presented.) The potential and limits of this type of survey are discussed, as well as the representativity of the participating physicians and of the recorded visits, which are a systematic sample of over 43,000 visits.