Exploiting satellite-based rainfall for weather index insurance: the challenges of spatial and temporal aggregation

Lack of access to insurance exacerbates the impact of climate variability on smallholder famers in Africa. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, weather index insurance (WII) pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. In principle, WII could be provided to farmers throughout Africa. There are two data-related hurdles to this. First, most farmers do not live close enough to a rain gauge with sufficiently long record of observations. Second, mismatches between weather indices and yield may expose farmers to uncompensated losses, and insurers to unfair payouts – a phenomenon known as basis risk. In essence, basis risk results from complexities in the progression from meteorological drought (rainfall deficit) to agricultural drought (low soil moisture). In this study, we use a land-surface model to describe the transition from meteorological to agricultural drought. We demonstrate that spatial and temporal aggregation of rainfall results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a reduction in basis risk. We then use an advanced statistical method to show how optimal aggregation of satellite-based rainfall estimates can reduce basis risk, enabling remotely sensed data to be utilized robustly for WII.

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants

Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women. Interpretation If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.

The use of remotely sensed rainfall for managing drought risk: a case study of weather index insurance in Zambia

Remotely sensed rainfall is increasingly being used to manage climate-related risk in gauge sparse regions. Applications based on such data must make maximal use of the skill of the methodology in order to avoid doing harm by providing misleading information. This is especially challenging in regions, such as Africa, which lack gauge data for validation. In this study, we show how calibrated ensembles of equally likely rainfall can be used to infer uncertainty in remotely sensed rainfall estimates, and subsequently in assessment of drought. We illustrate the methodology through a case study of weather index insurance (WII) in Zambia. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, WII pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. As remotely sensed rainfall is used to extend WII schemes to large numbers of farmers, it is crucial to ensure that the indices being insured are skillful representations of local environmental conditions. In our study we drive a land surface model with rainfall ensembles, in order to demonstrate how aggregation of rainfall estimates in space and time results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a truer representation of agricultural drought. Although our study focuses on agricultural insurance, the methodological principles for application design are widely applicable in Africa and elsewhere.

Dietary Quality Index and Associated Factors among Adolescents of the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Objective To assess dietary quality and associated factors in adolescents. Study design We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study in a sample of 1584 adolescents living in areas of the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Dietary intake was measured with the 24-hour recall method, and dietary quality was assessed by means of the Health Eating Index (HEI), adapted to fit to the local requirements. Linear regression analyses were performed to assess the association between the HEI and demographic, socioeconomic, and lifestyle variables. Results A total of 97.1% of the adolescents studied had an inadequate diet or a diet that needed improvement. The mean overall HEI score was 59.7. Lower mean HEI scores were found for fruits, dairy products, and vegetables. Male adolescents who were physically active and lived in a house or apartment had higher HEI scores. The multiple regression analyses showed that the quality of the diet improved as age decreased. Adolescents who lived in houses or apartments had higher HEI scores than adolescents living in shacks or slums, regardless of age and energy intake. Conclusions Dietary quality is associated with income and age. A better understanding of the factors associated can provide input to the formulation of policies and development of nutritional actions. (J Pediatr 2010; 156:456-60).

Effects of processing methods on amaranth starch digestibility and predicted glycemic index

Amaranth has attracted a great deal of interest in recent decades due to its valuable nutritional, functional, and agricultural characteristics. Amaranth seeds can be cooked, popped, roasted, flaked, or extruded for consumption. This study compared the in vitro starch digestibility of processed amaranth seeds to that of white bread. Raw seeds yielded rapidly digestible starch content (RDS) of 30.7% db and predicted glycemic index (pGI) of 87.2, the lowest among the studied products. Cooked, extruded, and popped amaranth seeds had starch digestibility similar to that of white bread (92.4, 91.2, and 101.3, respectively), while flaked and roasted seeds generated a slightly increased glycemic response (106.0 and 105.8, respectively). Cooking and extrusion did not alter the RDS contents of the seeds. No significant differences were observed among popped, flaked, and roasted RDS contents (38.0%,46.3%, and 42.9%, respectively), which were all lower than RDS content of bread (51.1%). Amaranth seed is a high glycemic food most likely because of its small starch granule size, low resistant starch content (< 1%), and tendency to completely lose its crystalline and granular starch structure during those heat treatments.

Body mass index values for newborns according to gestational age

Objective: The combination of twho anthropometric parameters has been more appropriate to assess body composition and proportions in children, with special attention to the Body Mass Index (BMI), as it relates weight and length. However the BMI values for the neonatal period have not been determined yet. This study shows the BMI for newborns at different gestational ages represented in a normal smoothed percentile curve. Methods: Retrospective study including 2,406 appropriate for gestational age newborns following the Alexander et al curve (1996) from 29 to 42 weeks of gestational age. Weight and lenght were measured following standard procedures. For the construction aof a normal smoothed percentile curve, the 3(rd) 5(th), 10(th), 25(th), 5(th), 75(th), 90(th) and 95(th) percentiles were determined and a statistical procedure based on the mathematical model ""sinosuoidal fit"" was applied to establish a curve that estimates biological growth parameters. Results: The Body Mass Index values for gestational age in all percentiles shows a steady increase up to 38 weeks, levels off up to the 40(th) week, followed by a slight decrease to the 42(nd) week in both genders. Conclusion: The results show a direct correlation between gestational age and Body Mass Index for both genders in the nine percentiles, and can provide a useful reference to assess intra-uterine proportional growth.

Climate perspective on the large-scale circulation associated with the transition of the first South Atlantic hurricane

The landfall of Cyclone Catarina on the Brazilian coast in March 2004 became known as the first documented hurricane in the South Atlantic Ocean, promoting a new view oil how large-scale features can contribute to tropical transition. The aim of this paper is to put the large-scale circulation associated with Catarina`s transition in climate perspective. This is discussed in the light of a robust pattern of spatial correlations between thermodynamic and dynamic variables of importance for hurricane formation. A discussion on how transition mechanisms respond to the present-day circulation is presented. These associations help in understanding why Catarina was formed in a region previously thought to be hurricane-free. Catarina developed over a large-scale area of thermodynamically favourable air/sea temperature contrast. This aspect explains the paradox that such a rare system developed when the sea surface temperature was slightly below average. But, although thermodynamics played an important role, it is apparent that Catarina would not have formed without the key dynamic interplay triggered by a high latitude blocking. The blocking was associated with an extreme positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) both hemispherically and locally, and the nearby area where Catarina developed is found to be more cyclonic during the positive phase of the SAM. A conceptual model is developed and a `South Atlantic index` is introduced as a useful diagnostic of potential conditions leading to tropical transition in the area, where large-scale indices indicate trends towards more favourable atmospheric conditions for tropical cyclone formation. Copyright (c) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

An improved estimate of leaf area index based on the histogram analysis of hemispherical photographs

Leaf area index (LAI) is a key parameter that affects the surface fluxes of energy, mass, and momentum over vegetated lands, but observational measurements are scarce, especially in remote areas with complex canopy structure. In this paper we present an indirect method to calculate the LAI based on the analyses of histograms of hemispherical photographs. The optimal threshold value (OTV), the gray-level required to separate the background (sky) and the foreground (leaves), was analytically calculated using the entropy crossover method (Sahoo, P.K., Slaaf, D.W., Albert, T.A., 1997. Threshold selection using a minimal histogram entropy difference. Optical Engineering 36(7) 1976-1981). The OTV was used to calculate the LAI using the well-known gap fraction method. This methodology was tested in two different ecosystems, including Amazon forest and pasturelands in Brazil. In general, the error between observed and calculated LAI was similar to 6%. The methodology presented is suitable for the calculation of LAI since it is responsive to sky conditions, automatic, easy to implement, faster than commercially available software, and requires less data storage. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Blockage of Angiotensin II type 2 receptor prevents thyroxine-mediated cardiac hypertrophy by blocking Akt activation

Although most of effects of Angiotensin II (Ang II) related to cardiac remodelling can be attributed to type 1 Ang II receptor (AT(1)R), the type 2 receptor (AT(2)R) has been shown to be involved in the development of some cardiac hypertrophy models. In the present study, we investigated whether the thyroid hormone (TH) action leading to cardiac hypertrophy is also mediated by increased Ang II levels or by change on AT(1)R and AT(2)R expression, which could contribute to this effect. In addition, we also evaluated the possible contribution of AT(2)R in the activation of Akt and in the development of TH-induced cardiac hypertrophy. To address these questions, Wistar rats were treated with thyroxine (T(4), 0.1 mg/kg BW/day, i.p.), with or without AT(2)R blocker (PD123319), for 14 days. Cardiac hypertrophy was identified based on heart/body weight ratio and confirmed by analysis of atrial natriuretic factor mRNA expression. Cardiomyocyte cultures were used to exclude the influence of TH-related hemodynamic effects. Our results demonstrate that the cardiac Ang II levels were significantly increased (80%, P < 0.001) as well as the AT(2)R expression (50%, P < 0.05) in TH-induced cardiac hypertrophy. The critical involvement of AT(2)R to the development of this cardiac hypertrophy in vivo was evidenced after administration of AT(2) blocker, which was able to prevent in 40% (P < 0.01) the cardiac mass gain and the Akt activation induced by TH. The role of AT(2)R to the TH-induced cardiomyocyte hypertrophy was also confirmed after using PD123319 in the in vitro studies. These findings improve understanding of the cardiac hypertrophy observed in hyperthyroidism and provide new insights into the generation of future therapeutic strategies.

Melatonin Protects CD4(+) T Cells from Activation-Induced Cell Death by Blocking NFAT-Mediated CD95 Ligand Upregulation

Over the past 20 y, the hormone melatonin was found to be produced in extrapineal sites, including cells of the immune system. Despite the increasing data regarding the biological effects of melatonin on the regulation of the immune system, the effect of this molecule on T cell survival remains largely unknown. Activation-induced cell death plays a critical role in the maintenance of the homeostasis of the immune system by eliminating self-reactive or chronically stimulated T cells. Because activated T cells not only synthesize melatonin but also respond to it, we investigated whether melatonin could modulate activation-induced cell death. We found that melatonin protects human and murine CD4(+) T cells from apoptosis by inhibiting CD95 ligand mRNA and protein upregulation in response to TCR/CD3 stimulation. This inhibition is a result of the interference with calmodulin/calcineurin activation of NFAT that prevents the translocation of NFAT to the nucleus. Accordingly, melatonin has no effect on T cells transfected with a constitutively active form of NFAT capable of migrating to the nucleus and transactivating target genes in the absence of calcineurin activity. Our results revealed a novel biochemical pathway that regulates the expression of CD95 ligand and potentially other downstream targets of NFAT activation. The Journal of Immunology, 2010, 184: 3487-3494.

Human monocytes but not dendritic cells are killed by blocking of autocrine cyclooxygenase activity

Dendritic cells (DCs), in peripheral tissues, derive mostly from blood precursors that differentiate into DCs under the influence of the local microenvironment. Monocytes constitute the main known DC precursors in blood and their infiltration into tissues is up-regulated during inflammation. During this process, the local production of mediators, like prostaglandins (PGs), influence significantly DC differentiation and function. In the present paper we show that treatment of blood adherent mononuclear cells with 10 mu M indomethacin, a dose achieved in human therapeutic settings, causes monocytes` progressive death but does not affect DCs viability or cell surface phenotype. This resistance of DCs was observed both for cells differentiated in vitro from blood monocytes and for a population with DCs characteristics already present in blood. This phenomenon could affect the local balance of antigen-presenting cells, influence the induction and pattern of immune responses developed under the treatment with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and, therefore, deserves further investigation. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Worldwide sequence conservation of transmission-blocking vaccine candidate Pvs230 in Plasmodium vivax

Pfs230, surface protein of gametocyte/gamete of the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum, is a prime candidate of malaria transmission-blocking vaccine. Plasmodium vivax has an ortholog of Pfs230 (Pvs230), however, there has been no study in any aspects on Pvs230 to date. To investigate whether Pvs230 can be a vivax malaria transmission-blocking vaccine, we performed evolutionary and population genetic analysis of the Pvs230 gene (pvs230: PVX_003905). Our analysis of Pvs230 and its orthologs in eight Plasmodium species revealed two distinctive parts: an interspecies variable part (IVP) containing species-specific oligopeptide repeats at the N-terminus and a 7.5 kb interspecies conserved part (ICP) containing 14 cysteine-rich domains. Pvs230 was closely related to its orthologs, Pks230 and Pcys230, in monkey malaria parasites. Analysis of 113 pvs230 sequences obtained from worldwide, showed that nucleotide diversity is remarkably low in the non-repeat 8-kb region of pvs230 (theta pi = 0.00118) with 77 polymorphic nucleotide sites, 40 of which results in amino acid replacements. A signature of purifying selection but not of balancing selection was seen on pvs230. Functional and/or structural constraints may limit the level of polymorphism in pvs230. The observed limited polymorphism in pvs230 should ground for utilization of Pvs230 as an effective transmission-blocking vaccine. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

INDEX OF AN IMPLICIT DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION

In this paper we introduce the concept of the index of an implicit differential equation F(x,y,p) = 0, where F is a smooth function, p = dy/dx, F(p) = 0 and F(pp) = 0 at an isolated singular point. We also apply the results to study the geometry of surfaces in R(5).

A further exploration of a nucleophilicity index based on the gas-phase ionization potentials

An empirical nucleophilicity index based on the gas-phase ionization potentials has been recently shown to be useful categorizing and settling the nucleophilicity power of a series of captodative ethylenes reacting in cycloaddition reactions (L.R. Domingo, E. Chamorro, P. Perez, Journal of Organic Chemistry 73 (2008) 4615-4624). In the present work, the applicability of such model is tested within a broader series of substituted alkenes, substituted aromatic compounds and simple nucleophilic molecules. This index obtained within a Koopman`s theorem framework has been evaluated here in both gas and solution phases for several well-known nucleophiles. These results are found to be linearly correlated. Finally, the feasibility of the predictive character of this index has been discussed in comparison to the available experimental nucleophilicities of some amines in water. These results further support and validate the usefulness of such approximation in the modeling of the global nucleophilicity. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.