The epidemiological modelling of major depressive disorder : application for the global burden of disease study 2010

Background Although the detrimental impact of major depressive disorder (MDD) at the individual level has been described, its global epidemiology remains unclear given limitations in the data. Here we present the modelled epidemiological profile of MDD dealing with heterogeneity in the data, enforcing internal consistency between epidemiological parameters and making estimates for world regions with no empirical data. These estimates were used to quantify the burden of MDD for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). Method Analyses drew on data from our existing literature review of the epidemiology of MDD. DisMod-MR, the latest version of the generic disease modelling system redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, derived prevalence by age, year and sex for 21 regions. Prior epidemiological knowledge, study- and country-level covariates adjusted sub-optimal raw data. Results There were over 298 million cases of MDD globally at any point in time in 2010, with the highest proportion of cases occurring between 25 and 34 years. Global point prevalence was very similar across time (4.4% (95% uncertainty: 4.2–4.7%) in 1990, 4.4% (4.1–4.7%) in 2005 and 2010), but higher in females (5.5% (5.0–6.0%) compared to males (3.2% (3.0–3.6%) in 2010. Regions in conflict had higher prevalence than those with no conflict. The annual incidence of an episode of MDD followed a similar age and regional pattern to prevalence but was about one and a half times higher, consistent with an average duration of 37.7 weeks. Conclusion We were able to integrate available data, including those from high quality surveys and sub-optimal studies, into a model adjusting for known methodological sources of heterogeneity. We were also able to estimate the epidemiology of MDD in regions with no available data. This informed GBD 2010 and the public health field, with a clearer understanding of the global distribution of MDD.

Health states for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder within the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study

A comprehensive revision of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is expected to be completed in 2012. This study utilizes a broad range of improved methods for assessing burden, including closer attention to empirically derived estimates of disability. The aim of this paper is to describe how GBD health states were derived for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. These will be used in deriving health state-specific disability estimates. A literature review was first conducted to settle on a parsimonious set of health states for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. A second review was conducted to investigate the proportion of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder cases experiencing these health states. These were pooled using a quality-effects model to estimate the overall proportion of cases in each state. The two schizophrenia health states were acute (predominantly positive symptoms) and residual (predominantly negative symptoms). The three bipolar disorder health states were depressive, manic, and residual. Based on estimates from six studies, 63% (38%-82%) of schizophrenia cases were in an acute state and 37% (18%-62%) were in a residual state. Another six studies were identified from which 23% (10%-39%) of bipolar disorder cases were in a manic state, 27% (11%-47%) were in a depressive state, and 50% (30%-70%) were in a residual state. This literature review revealed salient gaps in the literature that need to be addressed in future research. The pooled estimates are indicative only and more data are required to generate more definitive estimates. That said, rather than deriving burden estimates that fail to capture the changes in disability within schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, the derived proportions and their wide uncertainty intervals will be used in deriving disability estimates.

Health consequences of exposure to e-waste : a systematic review

Background The population exposed to potentially hazardous substances through inappropriate and unsafe management practices related to disposal and recycling of end-of-life electrical and electronic equipment, collectively known as e-waste, is increasing. We aimed to summarise the evidence for the association between such exposures and adverse health outcomes. Methods We systematically searched five electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, PsycNET, and CINAHL) for studies assessing the association between exposure to e-waste and outcomes related to mental health and neurodevelopment, physical health, education, and violence and criminal behaviour, from Jan 1, 1965, to Dec 17, 2012, and yielded 2274 records. Of the 165 full-text articles assessed for eligibility, we excluded a further 142, resulting in the inclusion of 23 published epidemiological studies that met the predetermined criteria. All studies were from southeast China. We assessed evidence of a causal association between exposure to e-waste and health outcomes within the Bradford Hill framework. Findings We recorded plausible outcomes associated with exposure to e-waste including change in thyroid function, changes in cellular expression and function, adverse neonatal outcomes, changes in temperament and behaviour, and decreased lung function. Boys aged 8–9 years living in an e-waste recycling town had a lower forced vital capacity than did those living in a control town. Significant negative correlations between blood chromium concentrations and forced vital capacity in children aged 11 and 13 years were also reported. Findings from most studies showed increases in spontaneous abortions, stillbirths, and premature births, and reduced birthweights and birth lengths associated with exposure to e-waste. People living in e-waste recycling towns or working in e-waste recycling had evidence of greater DNA damage than did those living in control towns. Studies of the effects of exposure to e-waste on thyroid function were not consistent. One study related exposure to e-waste and waste electrical and electronic equipment to educational outcomes. Interpretation Although data suggest that exposure to e-waste is harmful to health, more well designed epidemiological investigations in vulnerable populations, especially pregnant women and children, are needed to confirm these associations. Funding Children's Health and Environment Program, Queensland Children's Medical Research Institute, The University of Queensland, Australia.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to smoking in South Africa in 2000

Objectives To quantify the burden of disease attributable to smoking in South Africa for 2000. Design The absolute difference between observed lung cancer death rate and the level in non-smokers, adjusted for occupational and indoor exposure to lung carcinogens, was used to estimate the proportion of lung cancer deaths attributable to smoking and the smoking impact ratio (SIR). The SIR was substituted for smoking prevalence in the attributable fraction formula for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and cancers to allow for the long lag between exposure and outcome. Assuming a shorter lag between exposure and disease, the current prevalence of smoking was used to estimate the population-attributable fractions (PAF) for the other outcomes. Relative risks (RR) from the American Cancer Society cancer prevention study (CPS-II) were used to calculate PAF. Setting South Africa. Outcome measures Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to lung and other cancers, COPD, cardiovascular conditions, respiratory tuberculosis, and other respiratory and medical conditions. Results Smoking caused between 41 632 and 46 656 deaths in South Africa, accounting for 8.0 - 9.0% of deaths and 3.7 - 4.3% of DALYs in 2000. Smoking ranked third (after unsafe sex/sexually transmitted disease and high blood pressure) in terms of mortality among 17 risk factors evaluated. Three times as many males as females died from smoking. Lung cancer had the largest attributable fraction due to smoking. However, cardiovascular diseases accounted for the largest proportion of deaths attributed to smoking. Conclusion Cigarette smoking accounts for a large burden of preventable disease in South Africa. While the government has taken bold legislative action to discourage tobacco use since 1994, it still remains a major public health priority.

Health communication: A pilot study comparing perceptions of women with and without high functioning autism spectrum disorder

Research indicates significant health disparities for individuals with autism. Insight into characteristic sensory, cognitive, communication, social, emotional, and behavioural challenges that may influence health communication for patients with autism is vital to address potential disparities. Women with high functioning autism spectrum disorder (ASD) may have specific healthcare needs, and are likely to independently represent themselves and others in healthcare. A pilot study compared perceptions of healthcare experiences for women with and without ASD using on-line survey based on characteristics of ASD likely to influence healthcare. Fifty-eight adult female participants (32 with ASD diagnosis, 26 without ASD diagnosis) were recruited on-line from autism support organisations. Perceptions measured included self-reporting of pain and symptoms, healthcare seeking behaviours, the influence of emotional distress, sensory and social anxiety, maternity experiences, and the influence of autistic status disclosure. Results partially support the hypothesis that ASD women experience greater healthcare challenges. Women with ASD reported greater challenges in healthcare anxiety, communication under emotional distress, anxiety relating to waiting rooms, support during pregnancy, and communication during childbirth. Self-disclosure of diagnostic status and lack of ASD awareness by healthcare providers rated as highly problematic. Results offer detailed insight into healthcare communication and disparities for women with ASD.

Standardising and assessing digital images for use in clinical trials : a practical, reproducible method that blinds the assessor to treatment allocation

With the increasing availability of high quality digital cameras that are easily operated by the non-professional photographer, the utility of using digital images to assess endpoints in clinical research of skin lesions has growing acceptance. However, rigorous protocols and description of experiences for digital image collection and assessment are not readily available, particularly for research conducted in remote settings. We describe the development and evaluation of a protocol for digital image collection by the non-professional photographer in a remote setting research trial, together with a novel methodology for assessment of clinical outcomes by an expert panel blinded to treatment allocation.

Adolescent peer aggression and its association with mental health and substance use in an Australian cohort

Prospective longitudinal birth cohort data was used to examine the association between peer aggression at 14 years and mental health and substance use at 17 years. A sample of 1590 participants from the Western Australian Pregnancy Cohort (Raine) study were divided into mutually exclusive categories (victims, perpetrators, victim-perpetrators and uninvolved). Involvement in any type of peer aggression as a victim (10.1%), perpetrator (21.4%), or a victim-perpetrator (8.7%) was reported by 40.2% of participants. After adjusting for confounding factors, those who were a victim of peer aggression had increased odds of later depression and internalising symptoms whilst perpetrators of peer aggression were found to be at increased risk of depression and harmful alcohol use. Victim-perpetrators of peer aggression were more likely to have externalising behaviours at 17 years. These results show an independent temporal relationship between peer aggression and later mental health and substance use problems in adolescence.

The long-term health consequences of child physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect : a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Child sexual abuse is considered a modifiable risk factor for mental disorders across the life course. However the long-term consequences of other forms of child maltreatment have not yet been systematically examined. The aim of this study was to summarise the evidence relating to the possible relationship between child physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect, and subsequent mental and physical health outcomes. Methods and Findings A systematic review was conducted using the Medline, EMBASE, and PsycINFO electronic databases up to 26 June 2012. Published cohort, cross-sectional, and case-control studies that examined non-sexual child maltreatment as a risk factor for loss of health were included. All meta-analyses were based on quality-effects models. Out of 285 articles assessed for eligibility, 124 studies satisfied the pre-determined inclusion criteria for meta-analysis. Statistically significant associations were observed between physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect and depressive disorders (physical abuse [odds ratio (OR) = 1.54; 95% CI 1.16–2.04], emotional abuse [OR = 3.06; 95% CI 2.43–3.85], and neglect [OR = 2.11; 95% CI 1.61–2.77]); drug use (physical abuse [OR = 1.92; 95% CI 1.67–2.20], emotional abuse [OR = 1.41; 95% CI 1.11–1.79], and neglect [OR = 1.36; 95% CI 1.21–1.54]); suicide attempts (physical abuse [OR = 3.40; 95% CI 2.17–5.32], emotional abuse [OR = 3.37; 95% CI 2.44–4.67], and neglect [OR = 1.95; 95% CI 1.13–3.37]); and sexually transmitted infections and risky sexual behaviour (physical abuse [OR = 1.78; 95% CI 1.50–2.10], emotional abuse [OR = 1.75; 95% CI 1.49–2.04], and neglect [OR = 1.57; 95% CI 1.39–1.78]). Evidence for causality was assessed using Bradford Hill criteria. While suggestive evidence exists for a relationship between maltreatment and chronic diseases and lifestyle risk factors, more research is required to confirm these relationships. Conclusions This overview of the evidence suggests a causal relationship between non-sexual child maltreatment and a range of mental disorders, drug use, suicide attempts, sexually transmitted infections, and risky sexual behaviour. All forms of child maltreatment should be considered important risks to health with a sizeable impact on major contributors to the burden of disease in all parts of the world. The awareness of the serious long-term consequences of child maltreatment should encourage better identification of those at risk and the development of effective interventions to protect children from violence.

Alcohol use in South Africa : findings from the first demographic and health survey (1998)

Objective This study formed part of the 1998 South African Demographic and Health Survey, which included questions assessing the extent of alcohol use, risky drinking and alcohol problems among South Africans to obtain up-to-date baseline estimates of consumption and risky drinking and to inform intervention efforts. Method A two-stage random sample of 13,826 persons ages 15 or older (59% women) was included in the survey. Alcohol use was assessed through eight questions, including the CAGE questionnaire. Frequency analyses for different age groups, geographic setting, education level, population group and gender were calculated, as were odds ratios for these variables in relation to symptoms of alcohol problems. Results Current alcohol consumption was reported by 45% of the men and 17% of the women. White men (71%) were most likely and Asian women (9%) least likely to be current drinkers. Urban residents were more likely than nonurban dwellers to report current drinking. One third of the current drinkers reported risky drinking over weekends, and 28% of the men and 10% of the women scored above the cutoff level on the CAGE questionnaire. Symptoms of alcohol problems were significantly associated with lower socioeconomic status, no school education in women and being older than 25 years of age. Conclusions A comprehensive strategy is required to address the high levels of risky drinking and reported symptoms of alcohol problems.

Common values in assessing health outcomes from disease and injury: Disability weights measurement study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Measurement of the global burden of disease with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) requires disability weights that quantify health losses for all non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. There has been extensive debate about a range of conceptual and methodological issues concerning the definition and measurement of these weights. Our primary objective was a comprehensive re-estimation of disability weights for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 through a large-scale empirical investigation in which judgments about health losses associated with many causes of disease and injury were elicited from the general public in diverse communities through a new, standardised approach. METHODS We surveyed respondents in two ways: household surveys of adults aged 18 years or older (face-to-face interviews in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Peru, and Tanzania; telephone interviews in the USA) between Oct 28, 2009, and June 23, 2010; and an open-access web-based survey between July 26, 2010, and May 16, 2011. The surveys used paired comparison questions, in which respondents considered two hypothetical individuals with different, randomly selected health states and indicated which person they regarded as healthier. The web survey added questions about population health equivalence, which compared the overall health benefits of different life-saving or disease-prevention programmes. We analysed paired comparison responses with probit regression analysis on all 220 unique states in the study. We used results from the population health equivalence responses to anchor the results from the paired comparisons on the disability weight scale from 0 (implying no loss of health) to 1 (implying a health loss equivalent to death). Additionally, we compared new disability weights with those used in WHO's most recent update of the Global Burden of Disease Study for 2004. FINDINGS 13,902 individuals participated in household surveys and 16,328 in the web survey. Analysis of paired comparison responses indicated a high degree of consistency across surveys: correlations between individual survey results and results from analysis of the pooled dataset were 0·9 or higher in all surveys except in Bangladesh (r=0·75). Most of the 220 disability weights were located on the mild end of the severity scale, with 58 (26%) having weights below 0·05. Five (11%) states had weights below 0·01, such as mild anaemia, mild hearing or vision loss, and secondary infertility. The health states with the highest disability weights were acute schizophrenia (0·76) and severe multiple sclerosis (0·71). We identified a broad pattern of agreement between the old and new weights (r=0·70), particularly in the moderate-to-severe range. However, in the mild range below 0·2, many states had significantly lower weights in our study than previously. INTERPRETATION This study represents the most extensive empirical effort as yet to measure disability weights. By contrast with the popular hypothesis that disability assessments vary widely across samples with different cultural environments, we have reported strong evidence of highly consistent results.

Osteoporosis and fragility fractures

The prevalence of osteoporosis is expected to increase with the ageing of the world’s population. This article reviews the epidemiology, risk factors and health burden of osteoporosis. In the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2005, osteoporosis is studied as a risk factor for fracture by considering the bone-mineral-density (BMD) measurement as the continuous exposure variable. We have performed a systematic review seeking population-based studies with BMD data measured by dual-X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). The femoral neck was selected as the unique location and all values were converted into Hologic® to enable inclusion of worldwide data for analysis. Provisional results on mean BMD values for different world regions are shown in age breakdowns for males and females 50 years or over, as well as mean T-scores using the young, white, female reference of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III. Results show remarkable geographical differences and a time trend towards improvement of the BMD values in Asian and European populations.

Determinants and treatment of hypertension in South Africans: The first demographic and health survey

Objectives: To identify the groups of patients with high prevalence and poor control of hypertension in South Africa. Methods: In the first national Demographic and Health Survey, 12 952 randomly selected South Africans, aged 15 years and older were surveyed. Trained interviewers completed questionnaires on socio-demographic characteristics, lifestyle and the management of hypertension. This cross-sectional survey also included blood pressure, height and weight measurements. Logistic regression analyses identified the determinants of hypertension and the treatment status in this dataset. Results: A high risk of hypertension was associated with less than tertiary education, older age groups, overweight and obese people, using alcohol in excess, and a family history of stroke and hypertension. Rural Africans had the lowest risk of hypertension, which was significantly higher in obese African women than in women with normal body mass index. Improved hypertension control was found in the wealthy, women, older persons, being Asian, and having medical insurance. Conclusions: Rural African people had lower hypertension prevalence rates than the other groups. The poorer, younger men, without health insurance had the worst level of hypertension control.

Tobacco use in South Africans during 1998: The first demographic and health survey

Objective To determine smoking patterns in South Africa, and to identify groups requiring culturally appropriate smoking cessation programmes. Methods A random sample of 13 826 people (415 years), was interviewed to identify tobacco use patterns and respiratory symptoms. Peak expiratory flow rates were measured. Multinomial regression analyses identified sociodemographic factors related to tobacco use, and the latter’s association with respiratory conditions. Results In 1998, 24.6% adults (44.2% of males and 11.0% of females) smoked regularly. Coloured women had a higher rate (39%) than African women (5.4%). About 24% of the regular smokers had attempted to quit, with only 9.9% succeeding. African women (13.2%) used smokeless tobacco more frequently than others. Of the nonsmokers 28% and 19% were exposed to environmental tobacco smoke in their homes and workplaces, respectively. The regression analysis showed that the demographic characteristics of light smokers (1–14 tobacco equivalents per day) and heavy smokers (>=15 tobacco equivalents per day) differed. Light smoking occurred significantly more frequently in the poorest, least educated and urban people. The relative risk for light smoking was 18 in Coloured women compared with African women. Heavy smoking occurred most frequently in the highest educated group. A dose–response was observed between the amount smoked and the presence of respiratory diseases. Conclusions Smoking in South Africa is decreasing and should continue with the recently passed tobacco control legislation. Culturally appropriate tobacco cessation programmes for the identified target groups need to be developed.

The impact of the environment on health in Mongolia : a systematic review

Mongolia has significant exposure to environmental risk factors because of poor environmental management and behaviors, and children are increasingly vulnerable to these threats. This study aimed to assess levels of exposure and summarize the evidence for associations between exposures to environmental risk factors and adverse health outcomes in Mongolia, with a particular focus on children. A systematic review was conducted using the PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Global Health Library, CINAHL, CABI, Scopus, and mongolmed.mn electronic databases up to April 2014 . A total of 59 studies meeting the predetermined criteria were included. Results indicate that the Mongolian population has significant exposure to outdoor and indoor air pollution, metals, environmental tobacco smoke, and other chemical toxins, and these risk factors have been linked to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases among adults and respiratory diseases and neurodevelopmental disorders among children. Well-designed epidemiological investigations in vulnerable populations especially in pregnant women and children are recommended.