921 resultados para Bayesian nonparametric


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Hepatitis delta virus (HDV) is widely distributed and associated with fulminant hepatitis epidemics in areas with high prevalence of HBV. Several studies performed in the 1980s showed data on HDV infection in South America, but there are no studies on the viral dynamics of this virus. The aim of this study was to conduct an evolutionary analysis of hepatitis delta genotype 3 (HDV/3) prevalent in South America: estimate its nucleotide substitution rate, determine the time of most recent ancestor (TMRCA) and characterize the epidemic history and evolutionary dynamics. Furthermore, we characterized the presence of HBV/HDV infection in seven samples collected from patients who died due to fulminant hepatitis from Amazon region in Colombia and included them in the evolutionary analysis. This is the first study reporting HBV and HDV sequences from the Amazon region of Colombia. Of the seven Colombian patients, five were positive for HBV-DNA and HDV-RNA. Of them, two samples were successfully sequenced for HBV (subgenotypes F3 and Fib) and the five samples HDV positive were classified as HDV/3. By using all HDV/3 available reference sequences with sampling dates (n = 36), we estimated the HDV/3 substitution rate in 1.07 x 10(-3) substitutions per site per year (s/s/y), which resulted in a time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of 85 years. Also, it was determined that HDV/3 spread exponentially from early 1950s to the 1970s in South America. This work discusses for the first time the viral dynamics for the HDV/3 circulating in South America. We suggest that the measures implemented to control HBV transmission resulted in the control of HDV/3 spreading in South America, especially after the important raise in this infection associated with a huge mortality during the 1950s up to the 1970s. The differences found among HDV/3 and the other HDV genotypes concerning its diversity raises the hypothesis of a different origin and/or a different transmission route. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Although many mathematical models exist predicting the dynamics of transposable elements (TEs), there is a lack of available empirical data to validate these models and inherent assumptions. Genomes can provide a snapshot of several TE families in a single organism, and these could have their demographics inferred by coalescent analysis, allowing for the testing of theories on TE amplification dynamics. Using the available genomes of the mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Anopheles gambiae, we indicate that such an approach is feasible. Our analysis follows four steps: (1) mining the two mosquito genomes currently available in search of TE families; (2) fitting, to selected families found in (1), a phylogeny tree under the general time-reversible (GTR) nucleotide substitution model with an uncorrelated lognormal (UCLN) relaxed clock and a nonparametric demographic model; (3) fitting a nonparametric coalescent model to the tree generated in (2); and (4) fitting parametric models motivated by ecological theories to the curve generated in (3).

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Objective: The few studies applying single-voxel(1)H spectroscopy in children and adolescents with bipolar disorder (BD) have reported low N-acetyl-aspartate (NAA) levels in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), and high myo-inositol / phosphocreatine plus creatine (PCr+Cr) ratios in the anterior cingulate. The aim of this study was to evaluate NAA, glycerophosphocholine plus phosphocholine (GPC+PC) and PCr+Cr in various frontal cortical areas in children and adolescents with BD. We hypothesized that NAA levels within the prefrontal cortex are lower in BD patients than in healthy controls, indicating neurodevelopmental alterations in the former. Method: We studied 43 pediatric patients with DSM-IV BD (19 female, mean age 13.2 +/- 2.9 years) and 38 healthy controls (79 female, mean age 13.9 +/- 2.7 years). We conducted multivoxel in vivo (1)H spectroscopy measurements at 1.5 Tesla using a long echo time of 272 ms to obtain bilateral metabolite levels from the medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC), DLPFC (white and gray matter), cingulate (anterior and posterior), and occipital lobes. We used the nonparametric Mann-Whitney U test to compare neurochemical levels between groups. Results: In pediatric BD patients, NAA and GPC+PC levels in the bilateral MPFC, and PCr+Cr levels in the left MPFC were lower than those seen in the controls. In the left DLPFC white matter, levels of NAA and PCr+Cr were also lower in BD patients than in controls. Conclusions: Lower NAA and PCr+Cr levels in the PFC of children and adolescents with BD may be indicative of abnormal dendritic arborization and neuropil, suggesting neurodevelopmental abnormalities. J. Am. Acad. Child Adolesc. Psychiatry, 2011;50(1):85-94.

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Objective: This study evaluates whether a course that was designed for first-year psychiatric residents and that specifically addressed psychodynamic principles fostered residents` progress in knowledge, skills, and attitudes regarding these concepts. Methods: The course was given in the 2005 academic year to all residents (N = 18) in their first psychiatric postgraduate year at the Department and Institute of Psychiatry, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The residents were assessed in the first and last sessions of the course through a written test that was blindly rated by two independent judges. Residents were also interviewed to observe whether psychodynamic concepts had been integrated into actual practice. Their responses were subjected to content analysis. Significance was tested using analysis of variance or nonparametric tests when necessary. Agreement between the judges was tested using intraclass correlation coefficients. Results: The judges demonstrated a high level of agreement. The difference in mean scores before and after the course was such that the total score increased by a mean of 2.5 points (total test score was 10 points). Additionally, residents started to undergo personal psychotherapy after the course. They reported that this course had markedly improved their relationship with patients. They emphasized the opportunities for self-reflection and gaining insights into themselves and patient treatment issues. Conclusion: This initial study indicates that this educational method can effectively promote psychodynamic knowledge, skills, and appropriate attitudes for managing psychiatric outpatients among residents. The course was very well received by the residents, and a similar method can easily be instituted within other residency programs that pursue integrated teaching methods.

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The objective of the present study was to investigate the correlation between macrophage activity and apoptosis in the polar forms of leprosy because the immunopathological phenomena involved in these forms are still poorly understood For this purpose, 29 skin biopsy samples obtained from patients with the polar forms of leprosy were analyzed. Macrophage activity and apoptosis were evaluated by immunohistochemistry using lysozyme, CD68, iNOS and caspase 3 as markers The nonparametric Mann-Whitney test and Spearman`s linear correlation test were used for statistical analysis The results suggest that the apoptosis rate is under the direct influence of macrophage activity in lesions of patients with the tuberculoid form In contrast, in lepromatous lesions other factors seem to induce programmed cell death, possibly TGF-beta. Further studies are necessary to identify additional factors involved in the immunopathogenesis of leprosy. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

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Background Airway bypass is a bronchoscopic lung-volume reduction procedure for emphysema whereby transbronchial passages into the lung are created to release trapped air, supported with paclitaxel-coated stents to ease the mechanics of breathing. The aim of the EASE (Exhale airway stents for emphysema) trial was to evaluate safety and efficacy of airway bypass in people with severe homogeneous emphysema. Methods We undertook a randomised, double-blind, sham-controlled study in 38 specialist respiratory centres worldwide. We recruited 315 patients who had severe hyperinflation (ratio of residual volume [RV] to total lung capacity of >= 0.65). By computer using a random number generator, we randomly allocated participants (in a 2:1 ratio) to either airway bypass (n=208) or sham control (107). We divided investigators into team A (masked), who completed pre-procedure and post-procedure assessments, and team B (unmasked), who only did bronchoscopies without further interaction with patients. Participants were followed up for 12 months. The 6-month co-primary efficacy endpoint required 12% or greater improvement in forced vital capacity (FVC) and 1 point or greater decrease in the modified Medical Research Council dyspnoea score from baseline. The composite primary safety endpoint incorporated five severe adverse events. We did Bayesian analysis to show the posterior probability that airway bypass was superior to sham control (success threshold, 0.965). Analysis was by intention to treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00391612. Findings All recruited patients were included in the analysis. At 6 months, no difference between treatment arms was noted with respect to the co-primary efficacy endpoint (30 of 208 for airway bypass vs 12 of 107 for sham control; posterior probability 0.749, below the Bayesian success threshold of 0.965). The 6-month composite primary safety endpoint was 14.4% (30 of 208) for airway bypass versus 11.2% (12 of 107) for sham control (judged non-inferior, with a posterior probability of 1.00 [Bayesian success threshold >0.95]). Interpretation Although our findings showed safety and transient improvements, no sustainable benefit was recorded with airway bypass in patients with severe homogeneous emphysema.

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Hepatitis Delta virus (HDV) is endemic worldwide, but its prevalence varies in different geographical areas. While in the Brazilian Amazon, HDV is known to be endemic and to represent a significant public health problem, few studies have assessed its prevalence in other regions in the country. This study evaluated the seroprevalence of HDV among HBsAg chronic carriers from Maranhao state, a region located in the Northeast of Brazil. Among 133 patients, 5 had anti-HD, of whom 3 had HDV RNA. HDV genotypes were characterized by Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of nucleotide sequences from the HDAg coding region. HDV-3 was identified in one patient who lives in Maranhao, but was born in Amazonas state (Western Amazon basin). Phylogenetic analysis shows that this HDV-3 sequence grouped with other HDV-3 sequences isolated in this state, which suggests that the patient probably contracted HDV infection there. Surprisingly, the other two patients were infected with HDV-8, an African genotype. These patients were born and have always lived in Urbano Santos, a rural county of Maranhao state, moreover they had never been to Africa and denied any contact with people from that continent. This is the first description of the HDV-8 in non-native African populations. This genotype may have been introduced to Brazil through the slaves brought to the country from the West Africa regions during the 16-18th centuries. Our results indicate that the need of clinical and epidemiological studies to investigate the presence of this infection in other areas in Brazil. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Background: An impairing preoccupation with a nonexistent or slight defect in appearance is the core symptom of body dysmorphic disorder (ODD), a psychiatric condition common in dermatology settings. Objective: We sought to determine the prevalence of ODD in dermatologic patients, comparing general and cosmetic settings, and describing some demographic and clinical characteristics. Methods: In all, 300 patients were consecutively assessed. Screening and diagnoses were performed with validated instruments plus a best estimate diagnosis procedure. The final sample comprised 150 patients in the cosmetic group, 150 patients in the general dermatology group, and 50 control subjects. Standard statistical analyses were performed (chi(2), nonparametric tests, logistic regression). Results: The current prevalence was higher in the cosmetic group (14.0%) compared with general (6.7%) and control (2.0%) groups. No patient had a previous diagnosis. Frequently the reason for seeking dermatologic treatment was not the main ODD preoccupation. Patients with ODD from the cosmetic group were in general unsatisfied with the results of dermatologic treatments. Limitations: Cross-sectional study conducted in a university hospital is a limitation. It is uncertain if the findings can be generalized. Retrospective data regarding previous treatments are not free from bias. Conclusions: BUD is relatively common in a dermatologic setting, especially among patients seeking cosmetic treatments. These patients have some different features compared with general dermatology patients. Dermatologists should be aware of the clinical characteristics of ODD to identify and refer these patients to mental health professionals. (J Am Acad Dermatol 2010;63:235-43.)

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After 12 weeks of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) monotherapy with inadequate response, 10 patients received clomipramine and 11 received quetiapine as augmentation agents of the SSRI. The primary outcome measure was the difference between initial and final scores of the YaleBrown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale (Y-BOCS), rated in a blinded fashion, and the score of clinical global improvement (CGI-I). Statistical analyses were performed using nonparametric tests to evaluate treatment efficacy and the difference between treatment groups. Percentile plots were constructed with YBOCS scores from the clomipramine and quetiapine groups. Considering response a >= 35% reduction in the initial Y-BOCS score plus a rating of `much improved` or `very much improved` on CGI-I, four of eleven quetiapine patients and one out of ten clomipramine patients were classified as responders. The mean final Y-BOCS score was significantly lower than baseline in the quetiapine augmentation group (P = 0.023), but not in the clomipramine augmentation group (P = 0.503). The difference between groups showed a trend towards significance only at week 4, the mean Y-BOCS score being lower for those receiving quetiapine (P = 0.052). A difference between groups was also observed at week 4 according to percentile plots. These results corroborate previous findings of quetiapine augmentation efficacy in obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Clomipramine augmentation did not produce a significant reduction in Y-BOCS scores. Higher target maximum dosages might have yielded different results.

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Background: The risks for depression broadly include biological and environmental factors. Furthermore, having a family member suffering from major depression is also likely to have consequences for the family environment. Further research aimed at understanding the effects of having a child with major depression on family interaction patterns is warranted. Methods: We studied 31 families with an 8- to 17-year-old child (mean age +/- SD = 12.9 +/- 2.7 years) who met the DSM-IV criteria for major depressive disorder (MDD) and 34 families with no mentally ill children (mean age 8 SD = 12.6 +/- 2.9 years) or parents. Children and their parents were assessed with the K-SADS-PL (Kiddie Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia - Present and Lifetime Version) interview. Parents completed the Moos Family Environment Scale (FES) to assess their perceptions of current family functioning. Data were analyzed using the nonparametric Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test. Results: Families of MDD children showed significantly different patterns of family functioning on FES subscales representing relationships and personal growth dimensions. The families with MDD children showed higher levels of conflict (p < 0.001) and lower levels of cohesion (p < 0.001), expressiveness (p = 0.003) and active-recreational orientation (p = 0.02) compared to the families without mentally ill children. Conclusion: Families with MDD children show a lower degree of commitment, provide less support to one another, provide less encouragement to express feelings and have more conflicts compared to families with no mentally ill children or parents. Interventions aimed at improving family dynamics may be beneficial to MDD children and their families. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel

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Background: Many clinical studies have suggested a beneficial effect of GB virus type C (GBV-C) on the course of HIV-1 infection, but the mechanisms involved in such amelioration are not clear. As recent evidence has implicated cellular activation in HIV-1 pathogenesis, we investigated the effect of GBV-C viremia on T-cell activation in early HIV-1 infection. Methods: Forty-eight recently infected HIV-1 patients (23 GBV-C viremic) were evaluated for T-cell counts, expanded immunophenotyping GBV-C RNA detection, and HIV-1 viral load. Nonparametric univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out to identify variables associated with cellular activation, including GBV-C status, HIV-1 viral load, T lymphocyte counts, and CD38 and chemokine (C-C motif) receptor 5 (CCR5) surface expression. Finding: We not only confirmed the positive correlation between HIV-1 viral load and the percentage of T cells positive for CD38(+)CD8(+) but also observed that GBV-C viremic patients had a lower percentage of T cells positive for CD38(+)CD4(+), CD38(+)CD8(+), CCR5(+)CD4(+), and CCR5(+)CD8(+) compared with HIV-1-infected patients who were not GBV-C viremic. In regression models, GBV-C RNA(+) status was associated with a reduction in the CD38 on CD4(+) or CD8(+) T cells and CCR5(+) on CD8(+) T cells, independent of the HIV-1 viral load or CD4(+) and CD8(+) T-cell counts. These results were also supported by the lower expression of CD69 and CD25 in GBV-C viremic patients. Interpretation: The association between GBV-C replication and lower T-cell activation may be a key mechanism involved in the protection conferred by this virus against HIV-1 disease progression to immunodeficiency in HIV-1-infected patients. (C) 2009 Wolters Kluwer Health | Lippincott Williams & Wilkins

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Purpose: The effects of anxiety on the patient and his/her family are known to be the main factors that influence health recovery in child surgery. When the whole family can be prepared and supported by psychologic intervention, the damage to child behavior and family anxiety is attenuated. Methods: This study was conducted in children between 2 and 6 years old, divided into 2 groups of 10 pairs each. The experimental group received psychologic intervention, whereas the control group did not. One month after the surgery, they were reevaluated and compared with the same instruments used in the beginning of the study. The instruments used were as follows: the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory with the mothers and the Rutter`s Child Behavior A2 Scale and the Posthospital Behavior Questionnaire with the children. Results: The results were compared by the Wilcoxon and Mann-Whitney nonparametric tests for independent samples, both at the P <.05 significance levels. Mothers stated that anxiety was different in the postsurgery period, showing a significant decrease when comparing the experimental and control groups. Both instruments to measure child behavior also showed that prepared children had less habit changes than the control group, which showed increased levels of inadequate behavior. Conclusions: These data confirm reports in literature regarding child preparation before medical intervention and reinforces the importance of specialized presurgery planning procedures by the proper professional interfaced with the surgical colleagues, all aiming toward the best recovery for the children. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Hantaviruses are rodent-borne Bunyaviruses that infect the Arvicolinae, Murinae, and Sigmodontinae subfamilies of Muridae. The rate of molecular evolution in the hantaviruses has been previously estimated at approximately 10(-7) nucleotide substitutions per site, per year (substitutions/site/year), based on the assumption of codivergence and hence shared divergence times with their rodent hosts. If substantiated, this would make the hantaviruses among the slowest evolving of all RNA viruses. However, as hantaviruses replicate with an RNA-dependent RNA polymerase, with error rates in the region of one mutation per genome replication, this low rate of nucleotide substitution is anomalous. Here, we use a Bayesian coalescent approach to estimate the rate of nucleotide substitution from serially sampled gene sequence data for hantaviruses known to infect each of the 3 rodent subfamilies: Araraquara virus ( Sigmodontinae), Dobrava virus ( Murinae), Puumala virus ( Arvicolinae), and Tula virus ( Arvicolinae). Our results reveal that hantaviruses exhibit shortterm substitution rates of 10(-2) to 10(-4) substitutions/site/year and so are within the range exhibited by other RNA viruses. The disparity between this substitution rate and that estimated assuming rodent-hantavirus codivergence suggests that the codivergence hypothesis may need to be reevaluated.

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This work aims to compare different nonlinear functions for describing the growth curves of Nelore females. The growth curve parameters, their (co) variance components, and environmental and genetic effects were estimated jointly through a Bayesian hierarchical model. In the first stage of the hierarchy, 4 nonlinear functions were compared: Brody, Von Bertalanffy, Gompertz, and logistic. The analyses were carried out using 3 different data sets to check goodness of fit while having animals with few records. Three different assumptions about SD of fitting errors were considered: constancy throughout the trajectory, linear increasing until 3 yr of age and constancy thereafter, and variation following the nonlinear function applied in the first stage of the hierarchy. Comparisons of the overall goodness of fit were based on Akaike information criterion, the Bayesian information criterion, and the deviance information criterion. Goodness of fit at different points of the growth curve was compared applying the Gelfand`s check function. The posterior means of adult BW ranged from 531.78 to 586.89 kg. Greater estimates of adult BW were observed when the fitting error variance was considered constant along the trajectory. The models were not suitable to describe the SD of fitting errors at the beginning of the growth curve. All functions provided less accurate predictions at the beginning of growth, and predictions were more accurate after 48 mo of age. The prediction of adult BW using nonlinear functions can be accurate when growth curve parameters and their (co) variance components are estimated jointly. The hierarchical model used in the present study can be applied to the prediction of mature BW in herds in which a portion of the animals are culled before adult age. Gompertz, Von Bertalanffy, and Brody functions were adequate to establish mean growth patterns and to predict the adult BW of Nelore females. The Brody model was more accurate in predicting the birth weight of these animals and presented the best overall goodness of fit.

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It is well accepted that the Americas were the last continents reached by modern humans, most likely through Beringia. However, the precise time and mode of the colonization of the New World remain hotly disputed issues. Native American populations exhibit almost exclusively five mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplogroups (A-D and X). Haplogroups A-D are also frequent in Asia, suggesting a northeastern Asian origin of these lineages. However, the differential pattern of distribution and frequency of haplogroup X led some to suggest that it may represent an independent migration to the Americas. Here we show, by using 86 complete mitochondrial genomes, that all Native American haplogroups, including haplogroup X, were part of a single founding population, thereby refuting multiple-migration models. A detailed demographic history of the mtDNA sequences estimated with a Bayesian coalescent method indicates a complex model for the peopling of the Americas, in which the initial differentiation from Asian populations ended with a moderate bottleneck in Beringia during the last glacial maximum (LGM), around similar to 23,000 to similar to 19,000 years ago. Toward the end of the LGM, a strong population expansion started similar to 18,000 and finished similar to 15,000 years ago. These results support a pre-Clovis occupation of the New World, suggesting a rapid settlement of the continent along a Pacific coastal route.