Modeling the monetary policy reaction function of the colombian central bank

This paper proposes a simple Ordered Probit model to analyse the monetary policy reaction function of the Colombian Central Bank. There is evidence that the reaction function is asymmetric, in the sense that the Bank increases the Bank rate when the gap between observed inflation and the inflation target (lagged once) is positive, but it does not reduce the Bank rate when the gap is negative. This behaviour suggests that the Bank is more interested in fulfilling the announced inflation target rather than in reducing inflation excessively. The forecasting performance of the model, both within and beyond the estimation period, appears to be particularly good.

Bt-cotton boosts the gross margin of small-scale cotton producers in South Africa

This paper explores some of the issues involved in the Genetic Modification (GM) debate by focusing on one crop that has been modified for pest resistance, cotton (Gossypium hirsutum), and commercially released to small-scale farmers in the Makhathini Flats, KwaZulu Natal, the Republic of South Africa. This was the first commercial release of a GM variety (Bt-cotton) in Sub-Saharan Africa, and thus provides valuable and timely insights into some of the potential advantages and disadvantages of the technology for small-scale farmers in Africa. Even though there are wider concerns regarding the vulnerability of small-scale farmers in the area, the survey results suggest that Bt-cotton generated higher yields and gross margins than non-Bt-cotton. In addition, Bt-cotton significantly reduced the use of pesticide with consequent potential benefits to human health and the environment.

Environmental impact of genetically modified cotton in South Africa

This paper presents the results of a large-scale study designed to monitor the impact arising from the introduction of insect-resistant Bt cotton in the Makhathini Flats, Republic of South Africa. Bt cotton provides a degree of resistance to cotton bollworm complex (Lepidoptera). Data were collected on the use of insecticides (type and quantity) as well as the farm-level economics of production from over 2200 farmers in three growing seasons (1998/1999, 1999/2000 and 2000/2001). and the results are discussed within the context of environmental impact brought about by insecticide. Over the three seasons of the study it was clear that Bt cotton provided benefits in terms of higher yield and gross margin relative to farmers growing conventional (non-Bt) cotton, and the benefits were particularly apparent for the smallest producers. Bt growers also used significantly less insecticide than growers of non-Bt cotton. Once quantities of insecticide applied to Bt and non-Bt cotton were converted into a Biocide Index and an Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ) in order to allow for differences in terms of toxicity and persistence in the environment, it was apparent that the growing of Bt had a less negative impact on the environment. While this points to beneficial impacts on agricultural sustainability there are wider concerns regarding the vulnerability of resource-poor farmers in an area with limited (as yet) marketing options for their product and options for livelihood diversification both within and outside agriculture. Cotton producers in Makhathini are vulnerable as they rely on just One company for inputs (including, credit) and for their market. While Bt cotton provides benefits it does not in itself address some of the structural limitations that farmers face. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental impact of genetically modified cotton in South Africa

This paper presents the results of a large-scale study designed to monitor the impact arising from the introduction of insect-resistant Bt cotton in the Makhathini Flats, Republic of South Africa. Bt cotton provides a degree of resistance to cotton bollworm complex (Lepidoptera). Data were collected on the use of insecticides (type and quantity) as well as the farm-level economics of production from over 2200 farmers in three growing seasons (1998/1999, 1999/2000 and 2000/2001). and the results are discussed within the context of environmental impact brought about by insecticide. Over the three seasons of the study it was clear that Bt cotton provided benefits in terms of higher yield and gross margin relative to farmers growing conventional (non-Bt) cotton, and the benefits were particularly apparent for the smallest producers. Bt growers also used significantly less insecticide than growers of non-Bt cotton. Once quantities of insecticide applied to Bt and non-Bt cotton were converted into a Biocide Index and an Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ) in order to allow for differences in terms of toxicity and persistence in the environment, it was apparent that the growing of Bt had a less negative impact on the environment. While this points to beneficial impacts on agricultural sustainability there are wider concerns regarding the vulnerability of resource-poor farmers in an area with limited (as yet) marketing options for their product and options for livelihood diversification both within and outside agriculture. Cotton producers in Makhathini are vulnerable as they rely on just One company for inputs (including, credit) and for their market. While Bt cotton provides benefits it does not in itself address some of the structural limitations that farmers face. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Issues in language and development in multilingual settings: a case-study of knowledge exchange and teacher education in South Africa

The quality of a country’s human-resource base can be said to determine its level of success in social and economic development. This study focuses on some␣of the major human-resource development issues that surround the implementation of South Africa’s policy of multilingualism in education. It begins by discussing the relationship between knowledge, language, and human-resource, social and economic development within the global cultural economy. It then considers the situation in South Africa and, in particular, the implications of that country’s colonial and neo-colonial past for attempts to implement the new policy. Drawing on the linguistic-diversity-in-education debate in the United Kingdom of the past three decades, it assesses the first phase of an in-service teacher-education programme that was carried out at the Project for Alternative Education in South Africa (PRAESA) based at the University of Cape Town. The authors identify key short- and long-term issues related to knowledge exchange in education in multilingual societies, especially concerning the use of African languages as mediums for teaching and learning.

Farm-level economic impact of biotechnology: smallholder Bt cotton farmers in South Africa

This paper describes the method and findings of a survey designed to explore the economic benefits of the adoption of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton for smallholder farmers in the Republic of South Africa. The study found reason for cautious optimism in that the Bt variety generally resulted in a per hectare increase in yields and value of output with a reduction in pesticide costs, which outweighed the increase in seed costs to give a substantial increase in gross margins. Thus, these preliminary results suggest that Bt cotton is good for smallholder cotton farmers and the environment.

Farm level impact of Bt cotton in South Africa

This paper describes the method and findings of the first independent survey of smallholder farmers in the Republic of South Africa designed to explore the economic benefits of their adoption of Bt cotton. The study found that the Bt variety generally resulted in a per hectare increase in yields, value of output and reduction of pesticide costs which outweighed the increase in seed costs to give a substantial increase in gross margins. There are several surveys being carried out at the moment on different aspects of the Makhathini experience. The Monitor will be reporting on their results as these become available.

Fenced in: Common property struggles in the management of communal rangelands in central Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

This paper takes as its starting point the assertion that current rangeland management in the central Eastern Cape Province (former Ciskei) of South Africa, is characterised primarily by an ‘open access’ approach. Empirical material drawn from three case-study communities in the region is used to examine the main barriers to management of rangeland as a ‘commons’. The general inability to define and enforce rights to particular grazing resourses in the face of competing claims from ‘outsiders’, as well as inadequate local institutions responsible for rangeland management are highlighted as being of key importance. These are often exacerbated by lack of available grazing land, diffuse user groups and local political and ethnic divisions. Many of these problems have a strong legacy in historical apartheid policies such as forced resettlement and betterment planning. On this basis it is argued that policy should focus on facilitating the emergence of effective, local institutions for rangeland management. Given the limited grazing available to many communities in the region, a critical aspect of this will be finding ways to legitimise current patterns of extensive resource use, which traverse existing ‘community’ boundaries. However, this runs counter to recent legislation, which strongly links community management with legal ownership of land within strict boundaries often defined through fencing. Finding ways to overcome this apparent disjuncture between theory and policy will be vital for the effective management of common pool grazing resources in the region.

A 45 kyr palaeoclimate record from the lowland interior of tropical South America

We present a well-dated, high-resolution, ~ 45 kyr lake sediment record reflecting regional temperature and precipitation change in the continental interior of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropics of South America. The study site is Laguna La Gaiba (LLG), a large lake (95 km2) hydrologically-linked to the Pantanal, an immense, seasonally-flooded basin and the world's largest tropical wetland (135,000 km2). Lake-level changes at LLG are therefore reflective of regional precipitation. We infer past fluctuations in precipitation at this site through changes in: i) pollen-inferred extent of flood-tolerant forest; ii) relative abundance of terra firme humid tropical forest versus seasonally-dry tropical forest pollen types; and iii) proportions of deep- versus shallow-water diatoms. A probabilistic model, based on plant family and genus climatic optima, was used to generate quantitative estimates of past temperature from the fossil pollen data. Our temperature reconstruction demonstrates rising temperature (by 4 °C) at 19.5 kyr BP, synchronous with the onset of deglacial warming in the central Andes, strengthening the evidence that climatic warming in the SH tropics preceded deglacial warming in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) by at least 5 kyr. We provide unequivocal evidence that the climate at LLG was markedly drier during the last glacial period (45.0–12.2 kyr BP) than during the Holocene, contrasting with SH tropical Andean and Atlantic records that demonstrate a strengthening of the South American summer monsoon during the global Last Glacial Maximum (~ 21 kyr BP), in tune with the ~ 20 kyr precession orbital cycle. Holocene climate conditions occurred as early as 12.8–12.2 kyr BP, when increased precipitation in the Pantanal catchment caused heightened flooding and rising lake levels in LLG. In contrast to this strong geographic variation in LGM precipitation across the continent, expansion of tropical dry forest between 10 and 3 kyr BP at LLG strengthens the body of evidence for widespread early–mid Holocene drought across tropical South America.

Institutional framing of CSR and social entrepreneurship interactions in South Africa

Objectives. This paper considers the intersection of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and social entrepreneurship in South Africa through the lens of institutional theories and draws upon a number of illustrative case study examples. In particular it: (1) charts the historically evolving relationship between CSR and social entrepreneurship in South Africa, and how this relationship has been informed by institutional changes since the end of apartheid, particularly over the last few years; (2) identifies different interactional relationship forms between social enterprises and corporates engaging in CSR, with an emphasis on new innovative multi-stakeholder partnerships; and (3) considers internal engagements with social responsibility by SME social enterprises in South Africa. Prior Work. Reflecting South Africa’s history of division, the controversial role of business during apartheid, and the ongoing legacies of that period, the South African government has been particularly pro-active in encouraging companies to contribute to development and societal transformation through CSR and Black Economic Empowerment (BEE). Accordingly a substantial body of work now exists examining and critically reflecting upon CSR and BEE across a range of sectors. In response to perceived problems with BEE, efforts have recently been made to foster broader-based economic empowerment. However the implications of these transitions for the relationship between CSR and social entrepreneurship in South Africa have received scant academic attention. Approach. Analysis is undertaken of legislative and policy changes in South Africa with a bearing on CSR and social entrepreneurship. Data collected during fieldwork in South Africa working with 6 social enterprise case studies is utilised including qualitative data from key informant interviews, focus groups with stakeholders and observational research. Results. The paper considers the historically evolving relationship between CSR and social entrepreneurship in South Africa informed by institutional change. Five different relationship forms are identified and illustrated with reference to case examples. Finally internal engagement with social responsibility concerns by small and medium social enterprises are critically discussed. Implications. This paper sheds light on some of the innovative partnerships emerging between corporates and social enterprises in South Africa. It reflects on some of the strengths and weaknesses of South Africa’s policy and legislative approaches. Value. The paper provides insights useful for academic and practitioner audiences. It also has policy relevance, in particularly for other African countries potentially looking to follow South Africa’s example, in the development of legislative and policy frameworks to promote corporate responsibility, empowerment and transformation.

HIV/AIDS: use of the ICF in Brazil and South Africa - comparative data from four cross-sectional studies

Introduction Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a serious disease which can be associated with various activity limitations and participation restrictions. The aim of this paper was to describe how HIV affects the functioning and health of people within different environmental contexts, particularly with regard to access to medication. Method Four cross-sectional studies, three in South Africa and one in Brazil, had applied the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) as a classification instrument to participants living with HIV. Each group was at a different stage of the disease. Only two groups had had continuing access to antiretroviral therapy. The existence of these descriptive sets enabled comparison of the disability experienced by people living with HIV at different stages of the disease and with differing access to antiretroviral therapy. Results Common problems experienced in all groups related to weight maintenance, with two-thirds of the sample reporting problems in this area. Mental functions presented the most problems in all groups, with sleep (50%, 92/185), energy and drive (45%, 83/185), and emotional functions (49%, 90/185) being the most affected. In those on long-term therapy, body image affected 93% (39/42) and was a major problem. The other groups reported pain as a problem, and those with limited access to treatment also reported mobility problems. Cardiopulmonary functions were affected in all groups. Conclusion Functional problems occurred in the areas of impairment and activity limitation in people at advanced stages of HIV, and more limitations occurred in the area of participation for those on antiretroviral treatment. The ICF provided a useful framework within which to describe the functioning of those with HIV and the impact of the environment. Given the wide spectrum of problems found, consideration could be given to a number of ICF core sets that are relevant to the different stages of HIV disease. (C) 2010 Chartered Society of Physiotherapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An assessment of the latent and sensible heat flux on the simulated regional climate over Southwestern South Atlantic Ocean

A Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) 10-year (1990-1999) simulation over southwestern South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) is evaluated to assess the mean climatology and the simulation errors of turbulent fluxes over the sea. Moreover, the relationship between these fluxes and the rainfall over some cyclogenetic areas is also analyzed. The RegCM3 results are validated using some reanalyses datasets (ERA40, R2, GPCP and WHOI). The summer and winter spatial patterns of latent and sensible heat fluxes simulated by the RegCM3 are in agreement with the reanalyses (WHOI, R2 and ERA40). They show large latent heat fluxes exchange in the subtropical SAO and at higher latitudes in the warm waters of Brazil Current. In particular, the magnitude of RegCM3 latent heat fluxes is similar to the WHOI, which is probably related to two factors: (a) small specific humidity bias, and (b) the RegCM3 flux algorithm. In contrast, the RegCM3 presents large overestimation of sensible heat flux, though it simulates well their spatial pattern. This simulation error is associated with the RegCM3 underestimation of the 2-m air temperature. In southwestern SAO, in three known cyclogenetic areas, the reanalyses and the RegCM3 show the existence of different physical mechanisms that control the annual cycles of latent/sensible heating and rainfall. It is shown that over the eastern coast of Uruguay (35A degrees-43A degrees S) and the southeastern coast of Argentina (44A degrees-52A degrees S) the sea-air moisture and heat exchange play an important role to control the annual cycle of precipitation. This does not happen on the south/southeastern coast of Brazil.

Precipitation diurnal cycle and summer climatology assessment over South America: An evaluation of Regional Climate Model version 3 simulations

Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) simulations of 17 summers (1988-2004) over part of South America south of 5 degrees S were evaluated to identify model systematic errors. Model results were compared to different rainfall data sets (Climate Research Unit (CRU), Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis), including the five summers mean (1998-2002) precipitation diurnal cycle observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-Precipitation Radar (PR). In spite of regional differences, the RegCM3 simulates the main observed aspects of summer climatology associated with the precipitation (northwest-southeast band of South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ)) and air temperature (warmer air in the central part of the continent and colder in eastern Brazil and the Andes Mountains). At a regional scale, the main RegCM3 failures are the underestimation of the precipitation in the northern branch of the SACZ and some unrealistic intense precipitation around the Andes Mountains. However, the RegCM3 seasonal precipitation is closer to the fine-scale analyses (CPC, CRU, and TRMM-PR) than is the NCEP reanalysis, which presents an incorrect north-south orientation of SACZ and an overestimation of its intensity. The precipitation diurnal cycle observed by TRMM-PR shows pronounced contrasts between Tropics and Extratropics and land and ocean, where most of these features are simulated by RegCM3. The major similarities between the simulation and observation, especially the diurnal cycle phase, are found over the continental tropical and subtropical SACZ regions, which present afternoon maximum (1500-1800 UTC) and morning minimum (0900-1200 UTC). More specifically, over the core of SACZ, the phase and amplitude of the simulated precipitation diurnal cycle are very close to the TRMM-PR observations. Although there are amplitude differences, the RegCM3 simulates the observed nighttime rainfall in the eastern Andes Mountains, over the Atlantic Ocean, and also over northern Argentina. The main simulation deficiencies are found in the Atlantic Ocean and near the Andes Mountains. Over the Atlantic Ocean the convective scheme is not triggered; thus the rainfall arises from the grid-scale scheme and therefore differs from the TRMM-PR. Near the Andes, intense (nighttime and daytime) simulated precipitation could be a response of an incorrect circulation and topographic uplift. Finally, it is important to note that unlike most reported bias of global models, RegCM3 does not trigger the moist convection just after sunrise over the southern part of the Amazon.

Origin of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves over South America

Convectively coupled Kelvin waves over the South American continent are examined through the use of temporal and spatial filtering of reanalysis, satellite, and gridded rainfall data. They are most prominent from November to April, the season analyzed herein. The following two types of events are isolated: those that result from preexisting Kelvin waves over the eastern Pacific Ocean propagating into the continent, and those that apparently originate over Amazonia, forced by disturbances propagating equatorward from central and southern South America. The events with precursors in the Pacific are mainly upper-level disturbances, with almost no signal at the surface. Those events with precursors over South America, on the other hand, originate as upper-level synoptic wave trains that pass over the continent and resemble the ""cold surges`` documented by Garreaud and Wallace. As the wave train propagates over the Andes, it induces a southerly low-level wind that advects cold air to the north. Precipitation associated with a cold front reaches the equator a few days later and subsequently propagates eastward with the characteristics of a Kelvin wave. The structures of those waves originating over the Pacific are quite similar to those originating over South America as they propagate to eastern South America and into the Atlantic. South America Kelvin waves that originate over neither the Pacific nor the midlatitudes of South America can also be identified. In a composite sense, these form over the eastern slope of the Andes Mountains, close to the equator. There are also cases of cold surges that reach the equator yet do not form Kelvin waves. The interannual variability of the Pacific-originating events is related to sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific Ocean. When equatorial oceanic conditions are warm, there tends to be an increase in the number of disturbances that reach South America from the Pacific.

Satellite Rainfall Estimates Over South America - Possible Applicability to the Water Management of Large Watersheds1

This work analyzes high-resolution precipitation data from satellite-derived rainfall estimates over South America, especially over the Amazon Basin. The goal is to examine whether satellite-derived precipitation estimates can be used in hydrology and in the management of larger watersheds of South America. High spatial-temporal resolution precipitation estimates obtained with the CMORPH method serve this purpose while providing an additional hydrometeorological perspective on the convective regime over South America and its predictability. CMORPH rainfall estimates at 8-km spatial resolution for 2003 and 2004 were compared with available rain gauge measurements at daily, monthly, and yearly accumulation time scales. The results show the correlation between satellite-derived and gauge-measured precipitation increases with accumulation period from daily to monthly, especially during the rainy season. Time-longitude diagrams of CMORPH hourly rainfall show the genesis, strength, longevity, and phase speed of convective systems. Hourly rainfall analyses indicate that convection over the Amazon region is often more organized than previously thought, thus inferring that basin scale predictions of rainfall for hydrological and water management purposes have the potential to become more skillful. Flow estimates based on CMORPH and the rain gauge network are compared to long-term observed average flow. The results suggest this satellite-based rainfall estimation technique has considerable utility. Other statistics for monthly accumulations also suggest CMORPH can be an important source of rainfall information at smaller spatial scales where in situ observations are lacking.