Fatal Crashes & Fatalities on Iowa Rural Interstate System 1970-2014, July 24, 2015

Iowa fatal crashes and fatalities for the state of Iowa on rural interstate system from 1970-2014.

Analysis of Policies for Safety Improvements on Low-Volume Rural Roadways,1994

In order to determine the adequacy with which safety problems on low-volume rural roadways were addressed by the four states of Federal Region VII (Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska), a review was made of the states' safety policies. After reviewing literature dealing with the identification of hazardous locations, evaluation methodologies, and system-wide safety improvements, a survey of the states' safety policies was conducted. An official from each state was questioned about the various aspects and procedures dealing with safety improvements. After analyzing and comparing the remarkably diverse policies, recommendations were made in the form of a model safety program. This program included special modifications that would help remediate hazards on low-volume rural roadways. Especially encouraged is a system-wide approach to improvement which would cover all parts of the highway system, not just urban and high-volume roadways.

Upgrading Bridge Rails on Low-Volume Roads in Iowa, TR-679, 2016

Building on previous research, the goal of this project was to identify significant influencing factors for the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) to consider in future updates of its Instructional Memorandum (I.M.) 3.213, which provides guidelines for determining the need for traffic barriers (guardrail and bridge rail) at secondary roadway bridges—specifically, factors that might be significant for the bridge rail rating system component of I.M. 3.213. A literature review was conducted of policies and guidelines in other states and, specifically, of studies related to traffic barrier safety countermeasures at bridges in several states. In addition, a safety impact study was conducted to evaluate possible non-driver-related behavior characteristics of crashes on secondary road structures in Iowa using road data, structure data, and crash data from 2004 to 2013. Statistical models (negative binomial regression) were used to determine which factors were significant in terms of crash volume and crash severity. The study found that crashes are somewhat more frequent on or at bridges possessing certain characteristics—traffic volume greater than 400 vehicles per day (vpd) (paved) or greater than 50 vpd (unpaved), bridge length greater than 150 ft (paved) or greater than 35 ft (unpaved), bridge width narrower than its approach (paved) or narrower than 20 ft (unpaved), and bridges older than 25 years (both paved and unpaved). No specific roadway or bridge characteristic was found to contribute to more serious crashes. The study also confirmed previous research findings that crashes with bridges on secondary roads are rare, low-severity events. Although the findings of the study support the need for appropriate use of bridge rails, it concludes that prescriptive guidelines for bridge rail use on secondary roads may not be necessary, given the limited crash expectancy and lack of differences in crash expectancy among the various combinations of explanatory characteristics.

Impact of Curling and Warping on Concrete Pavement, TR-668, 2016

Portland cement concrete (PCC) pavement undergoes repeated environmental load-related deflection resulting from temperature and moisture variations across the pavement depth. This phenomenon, referred to as PCC pavement curling and warping, has been known and studied since the mid-1920s. Slab curvature can be further magnified under repeated traffic loads and may ultimately lead to fatigue failures, including top-down and bottom-up transverse, longitudinal, and corner cracking. It is therefore important to measure the “true” degree of curling and warping in PCC pavements, not only for quality control (QC) and quality assurance (QA) purposes, but also to achieve a better understanding of its relationship to long-term pavement performance. In order to better understand the curling and warping behavior of PCC pavements in Iowa and provide recommendations to mitigate curling and warping deflections, field investigations were performed at six existing sites during the late fall of 2015. These sites included PCC pavements with various ages, slab shapes, mix design aspects, and environmental conditions during construction. A stationary light detection and ranging (LiDAR) device was used to scan the slab surfaces. The degree of curling and warping along the longitudinal, transverse, and diagonal directions was calculated for the selected slabs based on the point clouds acquired using LiDAR. The results and findings are correlated to variations in pavement performance, mix design, pavement design, and construction details at each site. Recommendations regarding how to minimize curling and warping are provided based on a literature review and this field study. Some examples of using point cloud data to build three-dimensional (3D) models of the overall curvature of the slab shape are presented to show the feasibility of using this 3D analysis method for curling and warping analysis.

Older Adult Injury Risk Assessment in the Driving and Occupational Environments

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Review on recent trend of solar photovoltaic technology.

Solar photovoltaic technology is one of the renewable technologies, which has a potential to shape a clean, reliable, scalable and affordable electricity system for the future. This article provides a comprehensive review of solar photovoltaic technology in terms of photovoltaic materials efficiency and globally leading countries. Based on past years review and photovoltaic installations in the year 2014, the major five leading countries identified are China, Japan, USA, Germany and UK. These five countries altogether accounted for 80% of photovoltaic installations in 2014. The article also discusses the driving policies, funding and Research and Development activities: to gauge the reasons behind the success of the leading countries. Finally, this article reviews the photovoltaic cost analysis in terms of the photovoltaic module cost, balance of system cost and project cost with the help of listed 98 globally installed projects.

Recovery of palladium from a spent automobile catalyst leaching solution by a thiodiglycolamide derivative

In the sequence of previous research on the development of novel liquid-liquid amidetype compounds to efficiently and selectively extract platinum-group metals (PGMs) from concentrated hydrochloric acid media, a specific thiodiglycolamide derivative – N,N’-dimethyl-N,N’-dicyclohexylthiodiglycolamide (DMDCHTDGA) – has been applied for the recovery of palladium(II) from a spent automobile catalyst leaching solution, containing palladium(II) and rhodium(III) as PGMs. The results obtained are rather promising, since the DMDCHTDGA behavior towards the two PGMs is similar to that observed for hydrochloric acid aqueous media studied before, simulating the real leaching phases. Within eleven metal elements co-existing in solution, the majority in high fold-excesses, only aluminum(III) and cerium(III) interfere in the palladium(II) liquid-liquid extraction process, requiring further optimization.

Essays on the term structure of interest rates

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed timevarying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible realtime term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.

Studies on the synthesis of novel PP2A inhibitors and a GPCR detergent

Chapter 1 While targeting kinases in oncology research has been explored extensively, targeting protein phosphatases is currently in its infancy. However, a number of pharmaceutical companies are currently looking to expand their research efforts in this area. PP2A has been shown to down-regulate ERK5, a mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) that has been shown to be important in driving the invasive phenotype of prostate cancer. Fostriecin and its related structural analogues PD 113,270 and 113,271 have been shown to inhibit a mitotic entry checkpoint in cell growth through the potent and selective inhibition of protein phosphatases PP1, PP2A, and PP4 (IC50 of 45 μM, 1.5 nM, and 3 nM respectively). Fostriecin is one of the most selective protein phosphatase inhibitors disclosed to date with a 104 fold selectivity for PP2A/PP4 versus PP1. Unfortunately, fostriecin and its analogues are very unstable, and this instability has effectively prevented them from being used as effective therapeutic leads. The microcystins and nodularins on the other hand, exhibit significant inhibitory activity against PP1 and PP2A (IC50 = 26 pM and 1.8 nM respectively), but their high toxicity has prevented any therapeutic application. Truncation of the ADDA chain from these polypeptides completely attenuates PP inhibitory activity. Simpler analogues incorporating the N-acylated ADDA chain and D-Ala retain moderate activity against PP1 and PP2A (IC50 = 1.0 μM and 0.17 μM respectively). The generation of a new series of fostriecin analogues to further expand its structure-activity relationship is envisaged with a view to creating new more stable PP2A inhibitors. It was hoped that by incorporating some of the more stable structural features of ADDA into fostriecin that stability and activity could be reconciled. With that in mind a series of PP2A inhibitors were synthesised and biologically evaluated. Chapter 2 GPCRs are an important area of research and are the targets of a quarter of the drugs on the market (2005). As a result, GPCRs continue to be at the forefront of research in both small and large drug companies. However one of the difficulties in studying this diverse class of membrane proteins is their tendency to denature in aqueous solution. As a result there is a pressing need to develop new detergents to solubilise, stabilise and crystallise GPCRs in their native form for further study. Cholesterol analogues have been shown to be important for stabilising membrane proteins and preventing their thermal inactivation. In addition the β2-adrenergic receptor, a GPCR membrane protein, has been crystallised in the active state with two cholesterol molecules bound between the I, II, III and IV helices of the protein. This appears to represent a distinct cholesterol binding pocket on the membrane protein that is speculated to be conserved across up to 44% of the rhodopsin class of GPCRs. CHOBIMALT is a cholesterol-based detergent that has been shown to exhibit promising GPCR-stabilising properties. When benchmarked against other cholesterol based detergents it was found to be superior to all others tested except for cholesteryl hemisuccinate.1 CHOBIMALT has an aggregation number of roughly 200 and forms 210 ± 30 kDa micelles, which are significantly larger than those of most detergents used for biological systems which is likely due to the packing constraints associated with CHOBMALT’s large polar headgroup.2 As a result, CHOBIMALT is used mostly as an additive to other commercially available detergents in order to decrease micelle size. A branched dimaltoside motif is common in recently synthesised detergents by Chae and co-workers. These detergents have shown promising detergent properties, for example the maltose neopentyl glycol (MNG) detergent synthesised by Chae. This branched dimaltoside detergent was shown to be able to solubilise and stabilise the very labile light harvesting complex I (LHI) from Rhodopsin capsulatus in its active form for 20 days with little loss of protein conformation.3 A cholesterol-based detergent was envisaged that combines the cholesterol framework of CHOBIMALT but replaces its linear tetrasaccharide with a branched dimaltoside. This detergent would then be investigated to assess its ability to solubilise, stabilise and crystallise GPCR proteins. This cholesterol-based detergent (shown below) was eventually synthesised in 9 linear steps from cholesterol.

Essays on the term structure of interest rates

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed time-varying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible real-time term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.

Numerical study of circulation in the Caspian Sea and its effects on the southern coastal currents

In this study, numerical simulation of the Caspian Sea circulation was performed using COHERENS three-dimensional numerical model and field data. The COHERENS three-dimensional model and FVCOM were performed under the effect of the wind driven force, and then the simulation results obtained were compared. Simulation modeling was performed at the Caspian Sea. Its horizontal grid size is approximately equal to 5 Km and 30 sigma levels were considered. The numerical simulation results indicate that the winds' driven-forces and temperature gradient are the most important driving force factors of the Caspian circulation pattern. One of the effects of wind-driven currents was the upwelling phenomenon that was formed in the eastern shores of the Caspian Sea in the summer. The simulation results also indicate that this phenomenon occurred at a depth less than 40 meters, and the vertical velocity in July and August was 10 meters and 7 meters respectively. During the upwelling phenomenon period the temperatures on the east coast compared to the west coast were about 5°C lower. In autumn and winter, the warm waters moved from the south east coast to the north and the cold waters moved from the west coast of the central Caspian toward the south. In the subsurface and deep layers, these movements were much more structured and caused strengthening of the anti-clockwise circulation in the area, especially in the central area of Caspian. The obtained results of the two models COHERENS and FVCOM performed under wind driven-force show a high coordination of the two models, and so the wind current circulation pattern for both models is almost identical.

Ecological effects of flow and temperature regimes on fish communities in temperate rivers

Les organismes aquatiques sont adaptés à une grande variabilité hydrique et thermique des rivières. Malgré ceci, la régulation des eaux suscite des changements aux débits qui peuvent provoquer des impacts négatifs sur la biodiversité et les processus écologiques en rivière. Celle-ci peut aussi causer des modifications au niveau des régimes thermiques et des caractéristiques de l’habitat du poisson. Des données environnementales et biologiques décrivant l’habitat du poisson existent, mais elles sont incomplètes pour plusieurs rivières au Canada et de faible qualité, limitant les relations quantitatives débit-température-poissons à un petit nombre de rivières ou à une région étudiée. La recherche menée dans le cadre de mon doctorat concerne les impacts de la génération d'hydroélectricité sur les rivières; soit les changements aux régimes hydriques et thermiques reliés à la régulation des eaux sur la variation des communautés ichtyologiques qui habitent les rivières régulées et naturelles au Canada. Suite à une comparaison d’échantillonnage de pêche, une méthode constante pour obtenir des bons estimés de poisson (richesse, densité et biomasse des espèces) a été établie pour évaluer la structure de la communauté de poissons pour l’ensemble des rivières ciblées par l’étude. Afin de mieux comprendre ces changements environnementaux, les principales composantes décrivant ces régimes ont été identifiées et l’altération des régimes hydriques pour certaines rivières régulées a été quantifiée. Ces résultats ont servi à établir la relation significative entre le degré de changement biotique et le degré de changement hydrique pour illustrer les différences entre les régimes de régulation. Pour faire un complément aux indices biotiques déjà calculés pour l’ensemble des communautés de poissons (diversité, densité et biomasse des espèces par rivière), les différences au niveau des guildes de poissons ont été quantifiées pour expliquer les divers effets écologiques dus aux changements de régimes hydriques et thermiques provenant de la gestion des barrages. Ces derniers résultats servent à prédire pour quels traits écologiques ou groupes d’espèces de poissons les composantes hydriques et thermiques sont importantes. De plus, ces derniers résultats ont servi à mettre en valeur les variables décrivant les régimes thermiques qui ne sont pas toujours inclues dans les études hydro-écologiques. L’ensemble des résultats de cette thèse ont des retombées importantes sur la gestion des rivières en évaluant, de façon cohérente, l’impact de la régulation des rivières sur les communautés de poissons et en développant des outils de prévision pour la restauration des écosystèmes riverains.

Essays on Macroeconomic Trends and Cycles

This dissertation describes two studies on macroeconomic trends and cycles. The first chapter studies the impact of Information Technology (IT) on the U.S. labor market. Over the past 30 years, employment and income shares of routine-intensive occupations have declined significantly relative to nonroutine occupations, and the overall U.S. labor income share has declined relative to capital. Furthermore, the decline of routine employment has been largely concentrated during recessions and ensuing recoveries. I build a model of unbalanced growth to assess the role of computerization and IT in driving these labor market trends and cycles. I augment a neoclassical growth model with exogenous IT progress as a form of Routine-Biased Technological Change (RBTC). I show analytically that RBTC causes the overall labor income share to follow a U-shaped time path, as the monotonic decline of routine labor share is increasingly offset by the monotonic rise of nonroutine labor share and the elasticity of substitution between the overall labor and capital declines under IT progress. Quantitatively, the model explains nearly all the divergence between routine and nonroutine labor in the period 1986-2014, as well as the mild decline of the overall labor share between 1986 and the early 2000s. However, the model with IT progress alone cannot explain the accelerated decline of labor income share after the early 2000s, suggesting that other factors, such as globalization, may have played a larger role in this period. Lastly, when nonconvex labor adjustment costs are present, the model generates a stepwise decline in routine labor hours, qualitatively consistent with the data. The timing of these trend adjustments can be significantly affected by aggregate productivity shocks and concentrated in recessions. The second chapter studies the implications of loss aversion on the business cycle dynamics of aggregate consumption and labor hours. Loss aversion refers to the fact that people are distinctively more sensitive to losses than to gains. Loss averse agents are very risk averse around the reference point and exhibit asymmetric responses to positive and negative income shocks. In an otherwise standard Real Business Cycle (RBC) model, I study loss aversion in both consumption alone and consumption-and-leisure together. My results indicate that how loss aversion affects business cycle dynamics depends critically on the nature of the reference point. If, for example, the reference point is status quo, loss aversion dramatically lowers the effective inter-temporal rate of substitution and induces excessive consumption smoothing. In contrast, if the reference point is fixed at a constant level, loss aversion generates a flat region in the decision rules and asymmetric impulse responses to technology shocks. Under a reasonable parametrization, loss aversion has the potential to generate asymmetric business cycles with deeper and more prolonged recessions.

Whose health, whose care, whose say? Some comments on public involvement in new NHS commissioning arrangements

Recent health policy in England has demanded greater involvement of patients and the public in the commissioning of health and social care services. Public involvement is seen as a means of driving up service quality, reducing health inequalities and achieving value in commissioning decisions. This paper presents a summary and analysis of the forms that public involvement in commissioning are to take, along with empirical analysis from a qualitative study of service-user involvement. It is argued that the diversity of constituencies covered by the notion of ‘public involvement’, and the breadth of aims that public involvement is expected to achieve, require careful disaggregation. Public involvement in commissioning may encompass a variety of interest groups, whose inputs may include population needs assessment, evaluation of service quality, advocacy of the interests of a particular patient group or service, or a combination of all of these. Each of these roles may be legitimate, but there are significant tensions between them. The extent to which the structures for public involvement proposed recognize these possible tensions is arguably limited. Notably, new Local Involvement Networks (LINks), which will feed into commissioning decisions, are set as the arbiters of these different interests, a demanding role which will require considerable skill, tenacity and robustness if it is to be fulfilled effectively.

THE INFLUENCE OF URBAN FORM AT DIFFERENT GEOGRAPHICAL SCALES ON TRAVEL BEHAVIOR; EVIDENCE FROM U.S. CITIES

Suburban lifestyle is popular among American families, although it has been criticized for encouraging automobile use through longer commutes, causing heavy traffic congestion, and destroying open spaces (Handy, 2005). It is a serious concern that people living in low-density suburban areas suffer from high automobile dependency and lower rates of daily physical activity, both of which result in social, environmental and health-related costs. In response to such concerns, researchers have investigated the inter-relationships between urban land-use pattern and travel behavior within the last few decades and suggested that land-use planning can play a significant role in changing travel behavior in the long-term. However, debates regarding the magnitude and efficiency of the effects of land-use on travel patterns have been contentious over the years. Changes in built-environment patterns is potentially considered a long-term panacea for automobile dependency and traffic congestion, despite some researchers arguing that the effects of land-use on travel behavior are minor, if any. It is still not clear why the estimated impact is different in urban areas and how effective a proposed land-use change/policy is in changing certain travel behavior. This knowledge gap has made it difficult for decision-makers to evaluate land-use plans and policies. In addition, little is known about the influence of the large-scale built environment. In the present dissertation, advanced spatial-statistical tools have been employed to better understand and analyze these impacts at different scales, along with analyzing transit-oriented development policy at both small and large scales. The objective of this research is to: (1) develop scalable and consistent measures of the overall physical form of metropolitan areas; (2) re-examine the effects of built-environment factors at different hierarchical scales on travel behavior, and, in particular, on vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and car ownership; and (3) investigate the effects of transit-oriented development on travel behavior. The findings show that changes in built-environment at both local and regional levels could be very influential in changing travel behavior. Specifically, the promotion of compact, mixed-use built environment with well-connected street networks reduces VMT and car ownership, resulting in less traffic congestion, air pollution, and energy consumption.