Avaliação de incertezas na calibração automática do modelo SWMM

Este trabalho é referente ao desenvolvimento de um calibrador multiobjetivo automático do modelo SWMM (Storm Water Management Model), e avaliação de algumas fontes de incertezas presentes no processo de calibração, visando à representação satisfatória da transformação chuva-vazão. O código foi escrito em linguagem C, e aplica os conceitos do método de otimização multiobjetivo NSGAII (Non Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm) com elitismo controlado, além de utilizar o código fonte do modelo SWMM para a determinação das vazões simuladas. Paralelamente, também foi criada uma interface visual, para melhorar a facilidade de utilização do calibrador. Os testes do calibrador foram aplicados a três sistemas diferentes: um sistema hipotético disponibilizado no pacote de instalação do SWMM; um sistema real de pequenas dimensões, denominado La Terraza, localizado no município de Sierra Vista, Arizona (EUA); e um sistema de maiores dimensões, a bacia hidrográfica do Córrego do Gregório, localizada no município de São Carlos (SP). Os resultados indicam que o calibrador construído apresenta, em geral, eficiência satisfatória, porém é bastante dependente da qualidade dos dados observados em campo e dos parâmetros de entrada escolhidos pelo usuário. Foi demonstrada a importância da escolha dos eventos utilizados na calibração, do estabelecimento de limites adequados nos valores das variáveis de decisão, da escolha das funções objetivo e, principalmente, da qualidade e representatividade dos dados de monitoramento pluvio e fluviométrico. Conclui-se que estes testes desenvolvidos contribuem para o entendimento mais aprofundado dos processos envolvidos na modelagem e calibração, possibilitando avanços na confiabilidade dos resultados da modelagem.

The Rio Salado Riparian Habitat Restoration Area: Managing the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher

The following document identifies the impact to the current management plan of the Rio Salado Riparian Habitat Restoration Area in the event the endangered Southwestern Willow Flycatcher is found nesting at the project site. Rio Salado is managed by the City of Phoenix Parks and Recreation Department, and consists of a low-flow channel with native vegetation and wildlife along the Salt River. This paper analyzes the regulatory responsibilities of project site management and discusses the necessary adjustments to the management plan. Despite the current absence of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher from Rio Salado, management should enter into a Safe Harbor Agreement with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to legally protect themselves from the regulations stipulated in the Endangered Species Act.

Phosphorylated α-synuclein-immunoreactive retinal neuronal elements in Parkinson's disease subjects

Visual symptoms are relatively common in Parkinson's disease (PD) and optical coherence tomography has indicated possible retinal thinning. Accumulation of aggregated α-synuclein is thought to be a central pathogenic event in the PD brain but there have not as yet been reports of retinal synucleinopathy. Retinal wholemounts were prepared from subjects with a primary clinicopathological diagnosis of PD (N = 9), dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB; N = 3), Alzheimer's disease (N = 3), progressive supranuclear palsy (N = 2) as well as elderly normal control subjects (N = 4). These were immunohistochemically stained with an antibody against α-synuclein phosphorylated at serine 129, which is a specific molecular marker of synucleinopathy. Phosphorylated α-synuclein-immunoreactive (p-syn IR) nerve fibers were present in 7/9 PD subjects and in 1/3 DLB subjects; these were sparsely distributed and superficially located near or at the inner retinal surface. The fibers were either long and straight or branching, often with multiple en-passant varicosities along their length. The straight fibers most often had an orientation that was radial with respect to the optic disk. Together, these features are suggestive of either retinopetal/centrifugal fibers or of ganglion cell axons. In one PD subject there were sparse p-syn IR neuronal cell bodies with dendritic morphology suggestive of G19 retinal ganglion cells or intrinsically photosensitive ganglion cells. There were no stained nerve fibers or other specific staining in any of the non-PD or non-DLB subjects. It is possible that at least some of the observed visual function impairments in PD subjects might be due to α-synucleinopathy.

Late Mogollon pottery types of the Reserve area / John B. Rinaldo, Assistant Curator, Archaeology, and Elaine A. Bluhm, Assistant, Archaeology.

v.36:no.7(1956)

Detrital zircon geochronology data, petrographic point count data and paleocurrent indicator data of Triassic turbidites in the Nanpanjiang Basin, South China

Triassic turbidites of the Nanpanjiang basin of south China represent the most expansive and voluminous siliciclastic turbidite accumulation in south China. The Nanpanjiang basin occurs at a critical junction between the southern margin of the south China plate and the Indochina, Siamo and Sibumasu plates to the south and southwest. The Triassic Yangtze carbonate shelf and isolated carbonated platforms in the basin have been extensively studied, but silicilastic turbidites in the basin have received relatively little attention. Deciphering the facies, paleocurrent indicators and provenance of the Triassic turbidites is important for several reasons: it promises to help resolve the timing of plate collisions along suture zones bordering the basin to the south and southwest, it will enable evaluation of which suture zones and Precambrian massifs were source areas, and it will allow an evaluation of the impact of the siliciclastic flux on carbonate platform evolution within the basin. Turbidites in the basin include the Early Triassic Shipao Formation and the Middle-Late Triassic Baifeng, Xinyuan, Lanmu Bianyang and Laishike formations. Each ranges upward of 700 m and the thickest is nearly 3 km. The turbidites contain very-fine sand in the northern part of the basin whereas the central and southern parts of the basin also commonly contain fine and rarely medium sand size. Coarser sand sizes occur where paleocurrents are from the south, and in this area some turbidites exhibit complete bouma sequences with graded A divisions. Successions contain numerous alternations between mud-rich and sand-rich intervals with thickness trends corresponding to proximal/ distal fan components. Spectacularly preserved sedimentary structures enable robust evaluation of turbidite systems and paleocurrent analyses. Analysis of paleocurrent measurements indicates two major directions of sediment fill. The northern part of the basin was sourced primarily by the Jiangnan massif in the northeast, and the central and southern parts of the basin were sourced primarily from suture zones and the Yunkai massif to the south and southeast respectively. Sandstones of the Lower Triassic Shipao Fm. have volcaniclastic composition including embayed quartz and glass shards. Middle Triassic sandstones are moderately mature, matrix-rich, lithic wackes. The average QFL ratio from all point count samples is 54.1/18.1/27.8% and the QmFLt ratio is 37.8/ 18.1/ 44.1%. Lithic fragments are dominantly claystone and siltstone clasts and metasedimentary clasts such as quartz mica tectonite. Volcanic lithics are rare. Most samples fall in the recycled orogen field of QmFLt plots, indicating a relatively quartz and lithic rich composition consistent with derivation from Precambrian massifs such as the Jiangnan, and Yunkai. A few samples from the southwest part of the basin fall into the dissected arc field, indicating a somewhat more lithic and feldspar-rich composition consistent with derivation from a suture zone Analysis of detrial zircon populations from 17 samples collected across the basin indicate: (1) Several samples contain zircons with concordant ages greater than 3000 Ma, (2) there are widespread peaks across the basin at 1800 Ma and 2500, (3) a widespread 900 Ma population, (3) a widespread population of zircons at 440 Ma, and (5) a larger population of younger zircons about 250 Ma in the southwestern part which is replaced to the north and northwest by a somewhat older population around 260-290 Ma. The 900 Ma provenance fits derivation from the Jiangnan Massif, the 2500, 1800, and 440 Ma provenance fits the Yunkai massif, and the 250 Ma is consistent with convergence and arc development in suture zones bordering the basin on the south or southwest. Early siliciclastic turbidite flux, proximal to source areas impacted carbonate platform evolution by infilling the basin, reducing accommodation space, stabilizing carbonate platform margins and promoting margin progradation. Late arrival, in areas far from source areas caused margin aggradation over a starved basin, development of high relief aggradational escarpments and unstable scalloped margins.