Sea-level rise in Hawaii: Implications for future shoreline locations and Hawaii coastal management

Management of coastal development in Hawaii is based on the location of the certified shoreline, which is representative of the upper limit of marine inundation within the last several years. Though the certified shoreline location is significantly more variable than long-term erosion indicators, its migration will still follow the coastline's general trend. The long-term migration of Hawaii’s coasts will be significantly controlled by rising sea level. However, land use decisions adjacent to the shoreline and the shape and nature of the nearshore environment are also important controls to coastal migration. Though each of the islands has experienced local sea-level rise over the course of the last century, there are still locations across the islands of Kauai, Oahu, and Maui, which show long- term accretion or anomalously high erosion rates relative to their regions. As a result, engineering rules of thumb such as the Brunn rule do not always predict coastal migration and beach profile equilibrium in Hawaii. With coastlines facing all points of the compass rose, anthropogenic alteration of the coasts, complex coastal environments such as coral reefs, and the limited capacity to predict coastal change, Hawaii will require a more robust suite of proactive coastal management policies to weather future changes to its coastline. Continuing to use the current certified shoreline, adopting more stringent coastal setback rules similar to Kauai County, adding realistic sea-level rise components for all types of coastal planning, and developing regional beach management plans are some of the recommended adaptation strategies for Hawaii. (PDF contains 4 pages)

If the tide is rising, who pays for the ark?

Two common goals of this meeting are to arrest the effects of sea level rise and other phenomena caused by Greenhouse Gases from anthropogenic sources ("GHG",) and to mitigate the effects. The fundamental questions are: (1) how to get there and (2) who should shoulder the cost? Given Washington gridlock, states, NGO's and citizens such as the Inupiat of the Village of Kivalina have turned to the courts for solutions. Current actions for public nuisance seek (1) to reduce and eventually eliminate GHG emissions, (2) damages for health effects and property damage—plus hundreds of millions in dollars spent to prepare for the foregoing. The U.S. Court of Appeals just upheld the action against the generators of some 10% of the CO2 emissions from human activities in the U.S., clearing the way for a trial featuring the state of the art scientific linkage between GHG production and the effects of global warming. Climate change impacts on coastal regions manifest most prominently through sea level rise and its impacts: beach erosion, loss of private and public structures, relocation costs, loss of use and accompanying revenues (e.g. tourism), beach replenishment and armoring costs, impacts of flooding during high water events, and loss of tax base. Other effects may include enhanced storm frequency and intensity, increased insurance risks and costs, impacts to water supplies, fires and biological changes through invasions or local extinctions (IPCC AR4, 2007; Okmyung, et al., 2007). There is an increasing urgency for federal and state governments to focus on the local and regional levels and consistently provide the information, tools, and methods necessary for adaptation. Calls for action at all levels acknowledge that a viable response must engage federal, state and local expertise, perspectives, and resources in a coordinated and collaborative effort. A workshop held in December 2000 on coastal inundation and sea level rise proposes a shared framework that can help guide where investments should be made to enable states and local governments to assess impacts and initiate adaptation strategies over the next decade. (PDF contains 5 pages)

Non-governmental organizations and multi-sited marine conservation science: A case study

Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are now major players in the realm of environmental conservation. While many environmental NGOs started as national organizations focused around single-species protection, governmental advocacy, and preservation of wilderness, the largest now produce applied conservation science and work with national and international stakeholders to develop conservation solutions that work in tandem with local aspirations. Marine managed areas (MMAs) are increasingly being used as a tool to manage anthropogenic stressors on marine resources and protect marine biodiversity. However, the science of MMA is far from complete. Conservation International (CI) is concluding a 5 year, $12.5 million dollar Marine Management Area Science (MMAS) initiative. There are 45 scientific projects recently completed, with four main “nodes” of research and conservation work: Panama, Fiji, Brazil, and Belize. Research projects have included MMA ecological monitoring, socioeconomic monitoring, cultural roles monitoring, economic valuation studies, and others. MMAS has the goals of conducting marine management area research, building local capacity, and using the results of the research to promote marine conservation policy outcomes at project sites. How science is translated into policy action is a major area of interest for science and technology scholars (Cash and Clark 2001; Haas 2004; Jasanoff et al. 2002). For science to move policy there must be work across “boundaries” (Jasanoff 1987). Boundaries are defined as the “socially constructed and negotiated borders between science and policy, between disciplines, across nations, and across multiple levels” (Cash et al. 2001). Working across the science-policy boundary requires boundary organizations (Guston 1999) with accountability to both sides of the boundary, among other attributes. (Guston 1999; Clark et al. 2002). This paper provides a unique case study illustrating how there are clear advantages to collaborative science. Through the MMAS initiative, CI built accountability into both sides of the science-policy boundary primarily through having scientific projects fed through strong in-country partners and being folded into the work of ongoing conservation processes. This collaborative, boundary-spanning approach led to many advantages, including cost sharing, increased local responsiveness and input, better local capacity building, and laying a foundation for future conservation outcomes. As such, MMAS can provide strong lessons for other organizations planning to get involved in multi-site conservation science. (PDF contains 3 pages)

The Coastal Barrier Island Network (CBIN): Future management strategies for barrier islands

Barrier islands are ecosystems that border coastal shorelines and form a protective barrier between continental shorelines and the wave action originating offshore. In addition to forming and maintaining an array of coastal and estuarine habitats of ecological and economic importance, barrier island coastlines also include some of the greatest concentrations of human populations and accompanying anthropogenic development in the world. These islands have an extremely dynamic nature whereby major changes in geomorphology and hydrology can occur over short time periods (i.e. days, hours) in response to extreme episodic storm events such as hurricanes and northeasters. The native vegetation and geological stability of these ecosystems are tightly coupled with one another and are vulnerable to storm-related erosion events, particularly when also disturbed by anthropogenic development. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Oceans and human health: Sentinel habitats and sentinel species

The health of the oceans and people are inextricably linked. For many years we focused research and policy on anthropogenic impacts to oceans and coasts. Recently we have started to think about how the health of the oceans affects us. In response to the Oceans and Human Health Act of 2004, a NOAA initiative was created to explore the “One Health” of the oceans and coasts. The Center of Excellence in Oceans and Human Health at Hollings Marine Laboratory (HML) is one of three Centers dedicated to understanding the connections and forecasting changes in ocean and coastal health and human health. The Center at HML is developing new tools and approaches, including sentinel habitats and sentinel species, to evaluate linkages between ecological process and human health and wellbeing. The results provide environmental and public health managers, policy-makers and communities forecasts and assessments to improve ecosystem-based management that protects health and mitigates risks for the oceans, coasts and people.(PDF contains 4 pages)

Addressing and adapting to contemporary coastal management issues in the central Philippines

With arguably the world’s most decentralized coastal governance regime, the Philippines has implemented integrated coastal management (ICM) for over 30 years as one of the most successful frameworks for coastal resource management in the country. Anthropogenic drivers continue to threaten the food security and livelihood of coastal residents; contributing to the destruction of critical marine habitats, which are heavily relied upon for the goods and services they provide. ICM initiatives in the Philippines have utilized a variety of tools, particularly marine protected areas (MPAs), to promote poverty alleviation through food security and sustainable forms of development. From the time marine reserves were first shown to effectively address habitat degradation and decline in reef fishery production (Alcala et al., 2001) over 1,100 locally managed MPAs have been established in the Philippines; yet only 10-20% of these are effectively managed (White et al., 2006; PhilReefs, 2008). In order to increase management effectiveness, biophysical, legal, institutional and social linkages need to be strengthened and “scaled up” to accommodate a more holistic systems approach (Lowry et al., 2009). This summary paper incorporates the preliminary results of five independently conducted studies. Subject areas covered are the social and institutional elements of MPA networks, ecosystem-based management applicability, financial sustainability and the social vulnerability of coastal residents to climate change in the Central Philippines. Each section will provide insight into these focal areas and suggest how management strategies may be adapted to holistically address these contemporary issues. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Coastal plant growth and CO2 enrichment: Can the productivity of black needle rush keep pace with sea level rise?

The rate of sea level change has varied considerably over geological time, with rapid increases (0.25 cm yr-1) at the end of the last ice age to more modest increases over the last 4,000 years (0.04 cm yr-1; Hendry 1993). Due to anthropogenic contributions to climate change, however, the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase between 0.10 and 0.25 cm year-1 for many coastal areas (Warrick et al. 1996). Notwithstanding, it has been predicted that over the next 100 years, sea levels along the northeastern coast of North Carolina may increase by an astonishing 0.8 m (0.8 cm yr-1); through a combination of sea-level rise and coastal subsidence (Titus and Richman 2001; Parham et al. 2006). As North Carolina ranks third in the United States with land at or just above sea level, any additional sea rise may promote further deterioration of vital coastal wetland systems. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Investigations of secondary organic aerosol formation in laboratory chambers

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is produced in the atmosphere by oxidation of volatile organic compounds. Laboratory chambers are used understand the formation mechanisms and evolution of SOA formed under controlled conditions. This thesis presents studies of SOA formed from anthropogenic and biogenic precursors and discusses the effects of chamber walls on suspended vapors and particles.

During a chamber experiment, suspended vapors and particles can interact with the chamber walls. Particle wall loss is relatively well-understood, but vapor wall losses have received little study. Vapor wall loss of 2,3-epoxy-1,4-butanediol (BEPOX) and glyoxal was identified, quantified, and found to depend on chamber age and relative humidity.

Particles reside in the atmosphere for a week or more and can evolve chemically during that time period, a process termed aging. Simulating aging in laboratory chambers has proven to be challenging. A protocol was developed to extend the duration of a chamber experiment to 36 h of oxidation and was used to evaluate aging of SOA produced from m-xylene. Total SOA mass concentration increased and then decreased with increasing photooxidation suggesting a transition from functionalization to fragmentation chemistry driven by photochemical processes. SOA oxidation, measured as the bulk particle elemental oxygen-to-carbon ratio and fraction of organic mass at m/z 44, increased continuously starting after 5 h of photooxidation.

The physical state and chemical composition of an organic aerosol affect the mixing of aerosol components and its interactions with condensing species. A laboratory chamber protocol was developed to evaluate the mixing of SOA produced sequentially from two different sources by heating the chamber to induce particle evaporation. Using this protocol, SOA produced from toluene was found to be less volatile than that produced from a-pinene. When the two types of SOA were formed sequentially, the evaporation behavior most closely represented that of SOA from the second parent hydrocarbon, suggesting that the structure of the mixed SOA particles resembles a core of SOA from the first precursor coated by a layer of SOA from the second precursor, indicative of limiting mixing.

Slender-body hypervelocity boundary-layer instability

With novel application of optical techniques, the slender-body hypervelocity boundary-layer instability is characterized in the previously unexplored regime where thermo-chemical effects are important. Narrowband disturbances (500-3000~kHz) are measured in boundary layers with edge velocities of up to 5~km/s at two points along the generator of a 5 degree half angle cone. Experimental amplification factor spectra are presented. Linear stability and PSE analysis is performed, with fair prediction of the frequency content of the disturbances; however, the analysis over-predicts the amplification of disturbances. The results of this work have two key implications: 1) the acoustic instability is present and may be studied in a large-scale hypervelocity reflected-shock tunnel, and 2) the new data set provides a new basis on which the instability can be studied.

Diffraction-limited imaging on the 200-inch telescope

We have used the technique of non-redundant masking at the Palomar 200-inch telescope and radio VLBI imaging software to make optical aperture synthesis maps of two binary stars, β Corona Borealis and σ Herculis. The dynamic range of the map of β CrB, a binary star with a separation of 230 milliarcseconds is 50:1. For σ Her, we find a separation of 70 milliarcseconds and the dynamic range of our image is 30:1. These demonstrate the potential of the non-redundant masking technique for diffraction-limited imaging of astronomical objects with high dynamic range.

We find that the optimal integration time for measuring the closure phase is longer than that for measuring the fringe amplitude. There is not a close relationship between amplitude errors and phase errors, as is found in radio interferometry. Amplitude self calibration is less effective at optical wavelengths than at radio wavelengths. Primary beam sensitivity correction made in radio aperture synthesis is not necessary in optical aperture synthesis.

The effects of atmospheric disturbances on optical aperture synthesis have been studied by Monte Carlo simulations based on the Kolmogorov theory of refractive-index fluctuations. For the non-redundant masking with τ_c-sized apertures, the simulated fringe amplitude gives an upper bound of the observed fringe amplitude. A smooth transition is seen from the non-redundant masking regime to the speckle regime with increasing aperture size. The fractional reduction of the fringe amplitude according to the bandwidth is nearly independent of the aperture size. The limiting magnitude of optical aperture synthesis with τ_c-sized apertures and that with apertures larger than τ_c are derived.

Monte Carlo simulations are also made to study the sensitivity and resolution of the bispectral analysis of speckle interferometry. We present the bispectral modulation transfer function and its signal-to-noise ratio at high light levels. The results confirm the validity of the heuristic interferometric view of image-forming process in the mid-spatial-frequency range. The signal-to- noise ratio of the bispectrum at arbitrary light levels is derived in the mid-spatial-frequency range.

The non-redundant masking technique is suitable for imaging bright objects with high resolution and high dynamic range, while the faintest limit will be better pursued by speckle imaging.

Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions in marine stratocumulus clouds

Marine stratocumulus clouds are generally optically thick and shallow, exerting a net cooling influence on climate. Changes in atmospheric aerosol levels alter cloud microphysics (e.g., droplet size) and cloud macrophysics (e.g., liquid water path, cloud thickness), thereby affecting cloud albedo and Earth’s radiative balance. To understand the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions and to explore the dynamical effects, three-dimensional large-eddy simulations (LES) with detailed bin-resolved microphysics are performed to explore the diurnal variation of marine stratocumulus clouds under different aerosol levels and environmental conditions. It is shown that the marine stratocumulus cloud albedo is sensitive to aerosol perturbation under clean background conditions, and to environmental conditions such as large-scale divergence rate and free tropospheric humidity.

Based on the in-situ Eastern Pacific Emitted Aerosol Cloud Experiment (E-PEACE) during Jul. and Aug. 2011, and A-Train satellite observation of 589 individual ship tracks during Jun. 2006-Dec. 2009, an analysis of cloud albedo responses in ship tracks is presented. It is found that the albedo response in ship tracks depends on the mesoscale cloud structure, the free tropospheric humidity, and cloud top height. Under closed cell structure (i.e., cloud cells ringed by a perimeter of clear air), with sufficiently dry air above cloud tops and/or higher cloud top heights, the cloud albedo can become lower in ship tracks. Based on the satellite data, nearly 25% of ship tracks exhibited a decreased albedo. The cloud macrophysical responses are crucial in determining both the strength and the sign of the cloud albedo response to aerosols.

To understand the aerosol indirect effects on global marine warm clouds, multisensory satellite observations, including CloudSat, MODIS, CALIPSO, AMSR-E, ECMWF, CERES, and NCEP, have been applied to study the sensitivity of cloud properties to aerosol levels and to large scale environmental conditions. With an estimate of anthropogenic aerosol fraction, the global aerosol indirect radiative forcing has been assessed.

As the coupling among aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and meteorological conditions in the marine boundary layer is complex, the integration of LES modeling, in-situ aircraft measurements, and global multisensory satellite data analyses improves our understanding of this complex system.

Frictional properties of faults : from observation on the Longitudinal Valley Fault, Taiwan, to dynamic simulations

Faults can slip either aseismically or through episodic seismic ruptures, but we still do not understand the factors which determine the partitioning between these two modes of slip. This challenge can now be addressed thanks to the dense set of geodetic and seismological networks that have been deployed in various areas with active tectonics. The data from such networks, as well as modern remote sensing techniques, indeed allow documenting of the spatial and temporal variability of slip mode and give some insight. This is the approach taken in this study, which is focused on the Longitudinal Valley Fault (LVF) in Eastern Taiwan. This fault is particularly appropriate since the very fast slip rate (about 5 cm/yr) is accommodated by both seismic and aseismic slip. Deformation of anthropogenic features shows that aseismic creep accounts for a significant fraction of fault slip near the surface, but this fault also released energy seismically, since it has produced five M_w>6.8 earthquakes in 1951 and 2003. Moreover, owing to the thrust component of slip, the fault zone is exhumed which allows investigation of deformation mechanisms. In order to put constraint on the factors that control the mode of slip, we apply a multidisciplinary approach that combines modeling of geodetic observations, structural analysis and numerical simulation of the "seismic cycle". Analyzing a dense set of geodetic and seismological data across the Longitudinal Valley, including campaign-mode GPS, continuous GPS (cGPS), leveling, accelerometric, and InSAR data, we document the partitioning between seismic and aseismic slip on the fault. For the time period 1992 to 2011, we found that about 80-90% of slip on the LVF in the 0-26 km seismogenic depth range is actually aseismic. The clay-rich Lichi M\'elange is identified as the key factor promoting creep at shallow depth. Microstructural investigations show that deformation within the fault zone must have resulted from a combination of frictional sliding at grain boundaries, cataclasis and pressure solution creep. Numerical modeling of earthquake sequences have been performed to investigate the possibility of reproducing the results from the kinematic inversion of geodetic and seismological data on the LVF. We first investigate the different modeling strategy that was developed to explore the role and relative importance of different factors on the manner in which slip accumulates on faults. We compare the results of quasi dynamic simulations and fully dynamic ones, and we conclude that ignoring the transient wave-mediated stress transfers would be inappropriate. We therefore carry on fully dynamic simulations and succeed in qualitatively reproducing the wide range of observations for the southern segment of the LVF. We conclude that the spatio-temporal evolution of fault slip on the Longitudinal Valley Fault over 1997-2011 is consistent to first order with prediction from a simple model in which a velocity-weakening patch is embedded in a velocity-strengthening area.

Studies of ambient organic and inorganic aerosol in Southern California

The negative impacts of ambient aerosol particles, or particulate matter (PM), on human health and climate are well recognized. However, owing to the complexity of aerosol particle formation and chemical evolution, emissions control strategies remain difficult to develop in a cost effective manner. In this work, three studies are presented to address several key issues currently stymieing California's efforts to continue improving its air quality.

Gas-phase organic mass (GPOM) and CO emission factors are used in conjunction with measured enhancements in oxygenated organic aerosol (OOA) relative to CO to quantify the significant lack of closure between expected and observed organic aerosol concentrations attributable to fossil-fuel emissions. Two possible conclusions emerge from the analysis to yield consistency with the ambient organic data: (1) vehicular emissions are not a dominant source of anthropogenic fossil SOA in the Los Angeles Basin, or (2) the ambient SOA mass yields used to determine the SOA formation potential of vehicular emissions are substantially higher than those derived from laboratory chamber studies. Additional laboratory chamber studies confirm that, owing to vapor-phase wall loss, the SOA mass yields currently used in virtually all 3D chemical transport models are biased low by as much as a factor of 4. Furthermore, predictions from the Statistical Oxidation Model suggest that this bias could be as high as a factor of 8 if the influence of the chamber walls could be removed entirely.

Once vapor-phase wall loss has been accounted for in a new suite of laboratory chamber experiments, the SOA parameterizations within atmospheric chemical transport models should also be updated. To address the numerical challenges of implementing the next generation of SOA models in atmospheric chemical transport models, a novel mathematical framework, termed the Moment Method, is designed and presented. Assessment of the Moment Method strengths and weaknesses provide valuable insight that can guide future development of SOA modules for atmospheric CTMs.

Finally, regional inorganic aerosol formation and evolution is investigated via detailed comparison of predictions from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ version 4.7.1) model against a suite of airborne and ground-based meteorological measurements, gas- and aerosol-phase inorganic measurements, and black carbon (BC) measurements over Southern California during the CalNex field campaign in May/June 2010. Results suggests that continuing to target sulfur emissions with the hopes of reducing ambient PM concentrations may not the most effective strategy for Southern California. Instead, targeting dairy emissions is likely to be an effective strategy for substantially reducing ammonium nitrate concentrations in the eastern part of the Los Angeles Basin.

Breaking the 400 ppm barrier: Physical and Social implications of the recent CO2 rise

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Rompiendo la barrera de las 400 ppm: implicaciones físicas y sociales del reciente aumento de CO2

6 p.