Price discovery using a regime-sensitive cointegration approach

This work proposes a method to examine variations in the cointegration relation between preferred and common stocks in the Brazilian stock market via Markovian regime switches. It aims on contributing for future works in "pairs trading" and, more specifically, to price discovery, given that, conditional on the state, the system is assumed stationary. This implies there exists a (conditional) moving average representation from which measures of "information share" (IS) could be extracted. For identification purposes, the Markov error correction model is estimated within a Bayesian MCMC framework. Inference and capability of detecting regime changes are shown using a Montecarlo experiment. I also highlight the necessity of modeling financial effects of high frequency data for reliable inference.

A reconstrução da indústria brasileira: a conexão entre o regime macroeconômico e a política industrial

Este artigo, de cunho eminentemente analítico, mostra que no âmbito da política macroeconômica, é necessária consistência entre as políticas monetária, fiscal, cambial e salarial para viabilizar taxas de juros reais médias inferiores às taxas de retorno médias sobre o capital, taxas de câmbio reais competitivas (em torno da taxa de “equilíbrio industrial”) e taxas de salários que evoluam de acordo com o crescimento da produtividade, condições para que se assegure o crescimento econômico sobre bases sustentáveis. Já com respeito à política industrial, é preciso perseguir estratégias de diversificação produtiva, notadamente no setor manufatureiro e nos segmentos tradable do setor de serviços, mediante a identificação de prioridades estratégicas tanto nas cadeias produtivas, segmentos e setores próximos à base de vantagem comparativa preexistente, como naqueles mais próximos à fronteira tecnológica internacional. Embora os argumentos analíticos favoreçam a estratégia de diversificação produtiva, esta não deve ser confundida com semi-autarquia, o que significa que as cadeias e setores que não sejam foco da política industrial devem ter alíquotas de importação zero ou próximas de zero.

O regime da memória através dos diários virtuais: o caso dos blogs

CARVALHO, Luciana Moreira.;CARVALHO, Monica Marques. O registro da memória através dos diários virtuais:o caso dos blogs.Em Questão, Porto Alegre, v. 11, n. 1, p. 53-66, jan./jun. 2005.ISSN 1808-5245. Disponivel em:. Acesso em: 04 out. 2010. ão

Caracterização analítica e geométrica da metodologia geral de determinação de distribuições de Weibull para o regime eólico e suas aplicações

O regime eólico de uma região pode ser descrito por distribuição de frequências que fornecem informações e características extremamente necessárias para uma possível implantação de sistemas eólicos de captação de energia na região e consequentes aplicações no meio rural em regiões afastadas. Estas características, tais como a velocidade média anual, a variância das velocidades registradas e a densidade da potência eólica média horária, podem ser obtidas pela frequência de ocorrências de determinada velocidade, que por sua vez deve ser estudada através de expressões analíticas. A função analítica mais adequada para distribuições eólicas é a função de densidade de Weibull, que pode ser determinada por métodos numéricos e regressões lineares. O objetivo deste trabalho é caracterizar analítica e geometricamente todos os procedimentos metodológicos necessários para a realização de uma caracterização completa do regime eólico de uma região e suas aplicações na região de Botucatu - SP, visando a determinar o potencial energético para implementação de turbinas eólicas. Assim, foi possível estabelecer teoremas relacionados com a forma de caracterização do regime eólico, estabelecendo a metodologia concisa analiticamente para a definição dos parâmetros eólicos de qualquer região a ser estudada. Para o desenvolvimento desta pesquisa, utilizou-se um anemômetro da CAMPBELL.

O regime constitucional da contribuição de intervenção do domínio econômico aplicável ao setor de combustíveis

The performance of the State in the economic area is only legitimized when to be given in virtue of the protection of the principles established constitutionally. Thus, the economic intervention of the State prioritizes the formation of a joust economic order and in this context, it fulfills to us to define, to the long one of this work, the contours of the intervention of the State in the economic domain in the presence of the Federal Constitution of the Republic of 05 of October of 1988, and, more specifically, in the petroliferous economic sector by means of the interventive contribution instituted after the Constitutional amendment 33/2001, with Law 10.336/2001. With the creation of this institute, in Brazil, emerged innumerable quarrels concerning its constitutional legitimacy, directing uncurling of the research to the study of the state intervention through this contribution and its constitutional limits, in the purpose to demonstrate the parameters for its institution and application. In this way, the interventive contribution in the fuel sector (CIDE-Combustíveis) shows itself as an intervention instrument on the economic domain, acting in way to finance the indirect performance of the State, specially in what concerns to the promotion of the principle of sustainable development principle. Therefore, CIDE-Combustíveis is an able instrument to concretizes the mentioned constitutional principle. Thus, the division of its incomes promotes the consolidation of the principle of the cooperative federalism. In this direction, from premises of the environmental tax law, this intends to demonstrate the utility and constitutionality of this exaction tax, primordially with regard to the realization of the basic right to the balanced environment

Regime constitucional do direito privado das organizações religiosas

In Brazil, constitutional clauses regarding religious freedom have concrete applications in Private Law. Church-State Law, or "Ecclesiastical Law of the State," studies the legal principles which may be applicable to religious activity, exercised individually and collectively. The study of Church-State Law in Brazil lacks a thorough introduction to the constitutional and civil aspects of religious organizations: such an introduction is the main end of this work. Following a brief introduction, the main aspects of religious freedom and the principle of private autonomy as it concerns religious organizations are explained. A careful introductory analysis of Church-State Law in Brazil is thus developed: (1) the historical aspects, including a detailed account of the relations between Catholicism, the established religion up to 1889, and the government; (2) the current constitutional principles, as presented in the text of the federal Constitution of 1988, regarding the rights and claims of religious organizations; (3) how the same constitutional principles are to be used in the interpretation of Private Law (especially the Civil Code of 2002), fostering and preserving the uniqueness of religious organizations in the Brazilian legal system. A brief complementary chapter presents some aspects of the legal position of religious institutions in three other nations whose constitutional documents have influenced the current Brazilian federal Constitution (France, Spain, and the United States)

Bovine Biofertilizer and Water Regime Effects on Growth and Bulb Quality of Garlic

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Técnicas de simplificação de redes e otimização multiobjetivo para análise de variações de tensão em regime permanente provocadas por parques eólicos integrados ao sistema elétrico

This study presents a description of the development model of a representation of simplified grid applied in hybrid load flow for calculation of the voltage variations in a steady-state caused by the wind farm on power system. Also, it proposes an optimal load-flow able to control power factor on connection bar and to minimize the loss. The analysis process on system, led by the wind producer, it has as base given technician supplied by the grid. So, the propose model to the simplification of the grid that allows the necessity of some knowledge only about the data referring the internal network, that is, the part of the network that interests in the analysis. In this way, it is intended to supply forms for the auxiliary in the systematization of the relations between the sector agents. The model for simplified network proposed identifies the internal network, external network and the buses of boulders from a study of vulnerability of the network, attributing them floating liquid powers attributing slack models. It was opted to apply the presented model in Newton-Raphson and a hybrid load flow, composed by The Gauss-Seidel method Zbarra and Summation Power. Finally, presents the results obtained to a developed computational environment of SCILAB and FORTRAN, with their respective analysis and conclusion, comparing them with the ANAREDE

Simulador computacional do comportamento em regime de poços de petróleo equipados com gas-lift contínuo

Amongst the results of the AutPoc Project - Automation of Wells, established between UFRN and Petrobras with the support of the CNPq, FINEP, CTPETRO, FUNPEC, was developed a simulator for equipped wells of oil with the method of rise for continuous gas-lift. The gas-lift is a method of rise sufficiently used in production offshore (sea production), and its basic concept is to inject gas in the deep one of the producing well of oil transform it less dense in order to facilitate its displacement since the reservoir until the surface. Based in the use of tables and equations that condense the biggest number of information on characteristics of the reservoir, the well and the valves of gas injection, it is allowed, through successive interpolations, to simulate representative curves of the physical behavior of the existing characteristic variable. With a simulator that approaches a computer of real the physical conditions of an oil well is possible to analyze peculiar behaviors with very bigger speeds, since the constants of time of the system in question well are raised e, moreover, to optimize costs with assays in field. The simulator presents great versatility, with prominance the analysis of the influence of parameters, as the static pressure, relation gas-liquid, pressure in the head of the well, BSW (Relation Basic Sediments and Water) in curves of request in deep of the well and the attainment of the curve of performance of the well where it can be simulated rules of control and otimization. In moving the rules of control, the simulator allows the use in two ways of simulation: the application of the control saw software simulated enclosed in the proper simulator, as well as the use of external controllers. This implies that the simulator can be used as tool of validation of control algorithms. Through the potentialities above cited, of course one another powerful application for the simulator appears: the didactic use of the tool. It will be possible to use it in formation courses and recycling of engineers

Modelagem e simulação da solubilização da parafina em tubos circulares e em regime laminar

O óleo produzido nos novos campos de petróleo está cada vez mais parafínico e viscoso, com isso, à medida que o óleo é escoado, parafinas são depositadas sobre as paredes internas do tubo, e ao longo do tempo, tendem a reduzir drasticamente a área transversal ao escoamento. Visando estudar o processo de solubilização da parafina em dutos, esse trabalho objetiva desenvolver modelos matemáticos que represente o processo, com base nos fenômenos envolvidos no mesmo tais como transferência de massa, transferência de energia e equilíbrio sólido-líquido, implementando-os em um ambiente de desenvolvimento VBA (Visual Basic) for Excel ®. O presente trabalho foi realizado em quatro etapas: i) modelagem dos fenômenos de transferência de calor e massa, ii) modelagem da rotina dos coeficientes de atividade através do modelo UNIFAC e modelagem do sistema de equilíbrio sólido-líquido; iii) modelagem matemática do processo de solubilização e cálculo da espessura da parafina ao longo do tempo; iv) implementação dos modelos em um ambiente de desenvolvimento VBA for Excel® e criação de um simulador com uma interface gráfica, para simular o processo de solubilização da parafina depositada em dutos e sua otimização. O simulador conseguiu produzir soluções bastante adequadas, mantendo continuidade das equações diferenciáveis do balanço de energia e de massa, com uma interpretação física viável, sem a presença de dissipação de oscilações nos perfis de temperatura e massa. Além disso, esse simulador visa permitir a simulação nas diversas condições de escoamento, bem como compreender a importância das variáveis (vazão, temperatura de entrada, temperatura externa, cadeia carbônica do solvente). Através dos resultados foram possíveis verificar os perfis de temperatura, fração molar e o de solubilização

Avaliação das barragens subterrâneas no regime de um curso d água na região do semi-árido do RN

The Serido is a region of northeastern Brazil highlighted by its problems related to water scarcity because of its semi-arid region, large rates of evaporation and rainfall irregular and scarce. Thus, the underground dams, become a strategically important resource with a simple and inexpensive technique for storage of water. They act in a positive way in the development of inland cities that suffer from drought, because in addition to exercise a great improvement in the social role of these families, can enjoy the type of soil (silt) and provides water for both irrigation and for human consumption throughout the year. Is therefore essential to its monitoring and studies to assess its effectiveness in accordance with its purposes, along with their wells Amazons, as can occur in conditions of physical degradation, chemical and microbiological appropriate, according to the Ordinance No 518/04 Ministry of Health, however, the proposed work aims to analyze the underground dams in the municipality of Sierra Negra North-RN (semi-arid region) as to their uses and their influences on the quality and quantity of water in periods of drought and rain. Analyzing monthly these parameters: determination of pH, conductivity, calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, chloride, sulfate, RAS (sodium adsorption ratio), turbidity, total iron, nitrite, nitrate, total dissolved solids (STD), bicarbonate (HCO3), fecal coliform and pesticides compared to the standards allowed by the Ordinance in force for quality for human consumption. While at the risk of salinity and sodicity on the model proposed by the United Salinity Laboratory (USSL). Although efficient, it was found that results varied annually on water quality which may influence their specific uses, whether or irrigation water supply in the city