Climate change impacts on migration and labour market

Floods, droughts and monsoons have always disturbed human settlements, but there are more settlements now and more people in the world. Therefore, if a natural disaster happens, more will suffer than ever before. Moreover, climate in the past several decades has been greatly degraded by anthropogenic activity. In some cases, the chain of causality of human influence on the climate is direct and unambiguous (e.g. the effects of irrigation on local humidity), though there are instances where it is less clear. Presently, the scientific consensus (IPCC, 2007) on climate change is that human activity is very likely the cause for the rapid increase of global average temperatures, more generally known as global warming.

Diversity patterns of amphibians in lowland Amazonian forests in southeastern Peru

Biological diversity is threatened worldwide and it is a priority to generate more information that can be used both for understanding ecological processes and determining conservation strategies. For my dissertation, I focused on amphibian diversity patterns in lowland rainforests of southwestern Amazonia to evaluate the importance of habitat heterogeneity in the region. My main purpose was to test the hypothesis that amphibian communities in different forest types differ in species richness, composition, and abundance. I used standardized visual encounter surveys to quantify the species composition and abundance of amphibians at four sites, each containing four forest types (floodplain, terra firme, bamboo, and palm swamp). I used leaf-litter plots to evaluate the effect of soil and leaf-litter characteristics on species richness and abundance of leaf-litter frogs. I intensively sampled at one site and then sampled three other sites (distance among sites varied 3.5–105 km) to evaluate whether the patterns observed at one site were similar elsewhere. I also updated the information on threatened and potentially threatened amphibians in Peru and my study region. I found that no species appears to have experienced population declines in southeastern Peru, suggesting that the region still contains the original species pool. My results support the hypothesis that amphibian communities differ across forest types and that patterns observed at the local scale (one site) are similar at the regional scale (four sites). My data also indicate that there is no correlation between species composition and geographic distance among sites. Instead, an important proportion of the gamma diversity is represented by habitat-related beta diversity. My leaf-litter plot data showed that part of the variation in the leaf-litter community structure is explained by soil and litter characteristics. I found that soil total phosphorus and, to a lesser extent, humidity, leaf-litter mass, and pH is linked to species presence/absence and abundance. My study provides the first standardized, quantitative comparison of amphibian community structure across four major forest types in southwestern Amazonia and highlights the fact that forest types are complementary and necessary for maintaining high species richness in the region.

Paleoenvironmental reconstruction of Florida Bay, South Florida, using benthic foraminifera

Efforts that are underway to rehabilitate the Florida Bay ecosystem to a more natural state are best guided by a comprehensive understanding of the natural versus human-induced variability that has existed within the ecosystem. Benthic foraminifera, which are well-known paleoenvironmental indicators, were identified in 203 sediment samples from six sediment cores taken from Florida Bay, and analyzed to understand the environmental variability through anthropogenically unaltered and altered periods. In this research, taxa serving as indicators of (1) seagrass abundance (which is correlated with water quality), (2) salinity, and (3) general habitat change, were studied in detail over the past 120 years, and more generally over the past ~4000 years. Historical seagrass abundance was reconstructed with the proportions of species that prefer living attached to seagrass blades over other substrates. Historical salinity trends were determined by analyzing brackish versus marine faunas, which were defined based on species’ salinity preferences. Statistical methods including cluster analysis, discriminant analysis, analysis of variance and Fisher’s α were used to analyze trends in the data. The changes in seagrass abundance and salinity over the last ~120 years are attributed to anthropogenic activities such as construction of the Flagler Railroad from the mainland to the Florida Keys, the Tamiami Trail that stretches from the east to west coast, and canals and levees in south Florida, as well as natural events such as droughts and increased rainfall from hurricanes. Longer term changes (over ~4000 years) in seagrass abundance and salinity are mostly related to sea level changes. Since seawater entered the Florida Bay area around ~4000 years ago, only one probable sea level drop occurring around ~3000 years was identified.

Crayfish assemblage shifts in a large drought-prone wetland: the roles of hydrology and competition

1. Faster growing, larger and/or more aggressive crayfish species are predicted to dominate permanent waterbodies. We tested this prediction using a 9 year dataset for two species of crayfish (Procambarus alleni and Procambarus fallax) co-existing in a sub-tropical flowing slough in southern Florida. Using a series of laboratory and mesocosm experiments we also compared life history traits and performance of the respective species to test mechanisms that could explain dominance shifts in the local crayfish assemblages. 2. Over the 9-year period, P. alleni densities were the greatest in shallower, shorterhydroperiod areas bordering the slough, while P. fallax densities were higher in deeper, longer-hydroperiod central areas. These areas were separated by 0.8–2 km of continuous wetland with no apparent barriers to movement between them. 3. Density of P. fallax was not strongly affected by any measures of hydrological variation, while P. alleni density increased with more severe drought conditions. Following the strongest droughts, P. alleni colonized areas in the centre of the slough where they had been absent or scarce in wetter years. 4. We conducted experiments to compare growth rates, drought tolerance, and competitive dominance of these species. P. alleni survived drought conditions better, had higher growth rates, and was the dominant competitor for space and food. While drought probably limits P. fallax in the drier slough habitats, neither drought sensitivity nor interspecific competition with P. fallax can explain decreases of P. alleni with wetter conditions. 5. Our results indicate that a competition-colonization tradeoff cannot explain the crayfish compositional dynamics in this wetland because P. alleni is both the best competitor and the best at surviving in and colonizing areas with the strongest droughts. Future attention should focus on the potential for selective effects of predators that co-vary with hydrology. 6. The traits (large size, fast growth, competitive dominance) exhibited by P. alleni, which is absent in long-hydroperiod wetlands, are those exhibited by dominant crayfish in permanent lakes and streams containing fish. Although these traits make crayfish less vulnerable to fish in some lakes and streams, life-history models of community structure across permanence gradients suggest the opposite traits should be favoured for co-existence with fish.

Disturbance regime and limits on benefits of refuge use for fishes in a fluctuating hydroscape

Refuge habitats increase survival rate and recovery time of populations experiencing environmental disturbance, but limits on the ability of refuges to buffer communities are poorly understood. We hypothesized that importance of refuges in preventing population declines and alteration in community structure has a non-linear relationship with severity of disturbance. In the Florida Everglades, alligator ponds are used as refuge habitat by fishes during seasonal drying of marsh habitats. Using an 11-year record of hydrological conditions and fish abundance in 10 marshes and 34 alligator ponds from two regions of the Everglades, we sought to characterize patterns of refuge use and temporal dynamics of fish abundance and community structure across changing intensity, duration, and frequency of drought disturbance. Abundance in alligator ponds was positively related to refuge size, distance from alternative refugia (e.g. canals), and abundance in surrounding marsh prior to hydrologic disturbance. Variables negatively related to abundance in alligator ponds included water level in surrounding marsh and abundance of disturbance-tolerant species. Refuge community structure did not differ between regions because the same subset of species in both regions used alligator ponds during droughts. When time between disturbances was short, fish abundance declined in marshes, and in the region with the most spatially extensive pattern of disturbance, community structure was altered in both marshes and alligator ponds because of an increased proportion of species more resistant to disturbance. These changes in community structure were associated with increases in both duration and frequency of hydrologic disturbance. Use of refuge habitat had a modal relationship with severity of disturbance regime. Spatial patterns of response suggest that decline in refuge use was because of decreased effectiveness of refuge habitat in reducing mortality and providing sufficient time for recovery for fish communities experiencing reduced time between disturbance events.

A preliminary analysis of the correlation of food-web characteristics with hydrology and nutrient gradients in the southern Everglades

We estimated trophic position and carbon source for three consumers (Florida gar, Lepisosteus platyrhincus; eastern mosquitofish, Gambusia holbrooki; and riverine grass shrimp, Palaemonetes paludosus) from 20 sites representing gradients of productivity and hydrological disturbance in the southern Florida Everglades, U.S.A. We characterized gross primary productivity at each site using light/dark bottle incubation and stem density of emergent vascular plants. We also documented nutrient availability as total phosphorus (TP) in floc and periphyton, and the density of small fishes. Hydrological disturbance was characterized as the time since a site was last dried and the average number of days per year the sites were inundated for the previous 10 years. Food-web attributes were estimated in both the wet and dry seasons by analysis of δ15N (trophic position) and δ13C (food-web carbon source) from 702 samples of aquatic consumers. An index of carbon source was derived from a two-member mixing model with Seminole ramshorn snails (Planorbella duryi) as a basal grazing consumer and scuds (amphipods Hyallela azteca) as a basal detritivore. Snails yielded carbon isotopic values similar to green algae and diatoms, while carbon values of scuds were similar to bulk periphyton and floc; carbon isotopic values of cyanobacteria were enriched in C13compared to all consumers examined. A carbon source similar to scuds dominated at all but one study site, and though the relative contribution of scud-like and snail-like carbon sources was variable, there was no evidence that these contributions were a function of abiotic factors or season. Gar consistently displayed the highest estimated trophic position of the consumers studied, with mosquitofish feeding at a slightly lower level, and grass shrimp feeding at the lowest level. Trophic position was not correlated with any nutrient or productivity parameter, but did increase for grass shrimp and mosquitofish as the time following droughts increased. Trophic position of Florida gar was positively correlated with emergent plant stem density.

Monitoring of Tree Island Condition in the Southern Everglades: Hydrologic Driven Decadal Changes in Tree Island Woody Vegetation Structure and Composition: 2012 Annual Report

This report examines the interaction between hydrology and vegetation over a 10-year period, between 2001/02 and 2012 within six permanent tree island plots located on three tree islands, two plots each per tree island, established in 2001/02, along a hydrologic and productivity gradient. We hypothesize that: (H1) hydrologic differences within plots between census dates will result in marked differences in a) tree and sapling densities, b) tree basal area, and c) forest structure, i.e., canopy volume and height, and (H2) tree island growth, development, and succession is dependent on hydrologic fluxes, particularly during periods of prolonged droughts or below average hydroperiods.

Diversity Patterns of Amphibians in Lowland Amazonian Forests in Southeastern Peru

Biological diversity is threatened worldwide and it is a priority to generate more information that can be used both for understanding ecological processes and determining conservation strategies. For my dissertation, I focused on amphibian diversity patterns in lowland rainforests of southwestern Amazonia to evaluate the importance of habitat heterogeneity in the region. My main purpose was to test the hypothesis that amphibian communities in different forest types differ in species richness, composition, and abundance. I used standardized visual encounter surveys to quantify the species composition and abundance of amphibians at four sites, each containing four forest types (floodplain, terra firme, bamboo, and palm swamp). I used leaf-litter plots to evaluate the effect of soil and leaf-litter characteristics on species richness and abundance of leaf-litter frogs. I intensively sampled at one site and then sampled three other sites (distance among sites varied 3.5-105 km) to evaluate whether the patterns observed at one site were similar elsewhere. I also updated the information on threatened and potentially threatened amphibians in Peru and my study region. I found that no species appears to have experienced population declines in southeastern Peru, suggesting that the region still contains the original species pool. My results support the hypothesis that amphibian communities differ across forest types and that patterns observed at the local scale (one site) are similar at the regional scale (four sites). My data also indicate that there is no correlation between species composition and geographic distance among sites. Instead, an important proportion of the gamma diversity is represented by habitat-related beta diversity. My leaf-litter plot data showed that part of the variation in the leaf-litter community structure is explained by soil and litter characteristics. I found that soil total phosphorus and, to a lesser extent, humidity, leaf-litter mass, and pH is linked to species presence/absence and abundance. My study provides the first standardized, quantitative comparison of amphibian community structure across four major forest types in southwestern Amazonia and highlights the fact that forest types are complementary and necessary for maintaining high species richness in the region.

Efeitos de fungicidas alternativos em folhas de Carthamus tinctorius L. (Asteraceae), potencial espécie para cultivo em agricultura familiar

The currently main development model on global society is driven by an economic rationality that endangers the environment and social justice. More and more, attention to this way of production and consumption is increasing, boosting research for sustainable development, with an environmental rationality that can harmonize nature preservation and welfare of all socioeconomic classes. One of the efforts on this sense is changing the sources supplying the energy demand, replacing fossil fuels for renewable and cleaner sources, such as biofuels. Carthamus tinctorius (safflower) is an oilseed crop with potential for biodiesel production, with good oil yield and chemical profile, allied to good adaptation to climates such like the northeastern semiarid lands of Brazil. With public policies fomentation, the use of this species may be an interesting alternative for family farming. In farming in general, the use of pesticides to prevent and combat diseases and plagues is common, which is not a sustainable practice. Thus, there are researched alternative, less dangerous substances. In this study, it was aimed to assess if neem (Azadirachta indica) leaf extract (20% m/v) and Bordeaux mixture (copper sulfate) have effects on safflower. It was also aimed to verify acceptance of farmers on safflower crop in Apodi, a municipality in Rio Grande do Norte state, Brazil, in view of it being localized in the aimed region for this crop cultivation. Besides that, understanding that the farmers’ knowledge and inclination to adopt the crop is fundamental for the introduction of this species and socioeconomic growth due to its exploration. In addition, a booklet with basic information on safflower was produced. In the field experiment, the fungicides were pulverized on plants cultivated in field experimental plots, with collection of leaf samples for analysis on anatomy, cuticle, and epicuticular wax morphology, the protective layer that interfaces with the surrounding ambient. In Apodi, forty-five farmers from Potiguar Cooperative of Apiculture and Sustainable Rural Development (COOPAPI) underwent semi-structured interviews, which also addressed their assessment on currently cultivated crops and perception of pesticide uses and sustainable alternatives. After comparing using analysis of variance, it was found that there was no difference between treatments in the experiment, as well as no anatomical or morphological modifications. Safflower acceptation among farmers was wide, with 84% of interviewees believing in a perspective of good incomes. The current scenario, comprised of low crop diversity, fragile in face of droughts and plagues, can partially explain this opinion. The booklet was effective in catching people attention for the species potential. There was wide acknowledgement on the importance of alternative pesticides, justified by health security. Based on the assessed parameter in the results of this research, the treatments here utilized may be recommended as fungicides for safflower. Given the crop susceptibility to fungi in heavy rainy period, it is advised that its potential introduction on the region shall be focused on semiarid areas.

Influência de eventos hidrológicos extremos na qualidade da água de reservatórios na região tropical semiárida

Reservoirs are artificial ecosystems, intermediate between rivers and lakes, with diferent morphological and hydrological characteristics that can provide many important benefits to society. However, the use of this water for human consumption, watering livestock, leisure, irrigated agricultural production and pisciculture development, directly influence the increase loading of nutrients to aquatic environments and contribute to acceleration of eutrophication. Furthermore, global climate models are predicting a higher occurrence of extreme events such as floods and severe droughts, which will create hydrological stresses in lakes. In the semiarid northeast we can see the occurrence of these events, the drought of the years 2012, 2013 and 2014 was the worst drought in 60 years, according to the National Water Agency (ANA). Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the quality of the semiarid tropical water sources, identifying temporal patterns in periods with extreme hydrological events (floods and severe droughts). The study results showed that Gargalheiras and Cruzeta reservoirs presented significative changes in the limnological variables between rain and severe drought periods, with better appearance and in the most of the water quality variables in the rainy season and higher nutrientes concentrations and high electrical conductivity values in severe season, indicating decay of its quality. However, we found diferent behaviors between the reservoirs in severe drought. While Gargalheiras showed a typical behavior of the region, with high concentrations of algal biomass, indicating the worsening eutrophication, Cruzeta demonstrated a colapse in the total phytoplankton biomass, evidenced by the decrease in chla concentrations. This fact occurred because the low depth and proximity with the sediment facilited the inorganic solids resuspension and, consequently, resulted in turbid water column and light by limitation. In addition, the different behaviors between the reservoirs indicate that the responses of these environments problems such as extreme events must take into account factors such the region climate, size, depth of the reservoir and the basin characteristics.

Modelagem estatística e atribuições dos eventos de precipitação extrema na Amazônia brasileira

Intense precipitation events (IPE) have been causing great social and economic losses in the affected regions. In the Amazon, these events can have serious impacts, primarily for populations living on the margins of its countless rivers, because when water levels are elevated, floods and/or inundations are generally observed. Thus, the main objective of this research is to study IPE, through Extreme Value Theory (EVT), to estimate return periods of these events and identify regions of the Brazilian Amazon where IPE have the largest values. The study was performed using daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the National Water Agency (Agência Nacional de Água) and the Meteorological Data Bank for Education and Research (Banco de Dados Meteorológicos para Ensino e Pesquisa) of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), covering the period 1983-2012. First, homogeneous rainfall regions were determined through cluster analysis, using the hierarchical agglomerative Ward method. Then synthetic series to represent the homogeneous regions were created. Next EVT, was applied in these series, through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The goodness of fit of these distributions were evaluated by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. Finally, the composition technique was used to characterize the prevailing atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of IPE. The results suggest that the Brazilian Amazon has six pluvial homogeneous regions. It is expected more severe IPE to occur in the south and in the Amazon coast. More intense rainfall events are expected during the rainy or transitions seasons of each sub-region, with total daily precipitation of 146.1, 143.1 and 109.4 mm (GEV) and 201.6, 209.5 and 152.4 mm (GPD), at least once year, in the south, in the coast and in the northwest of the Brazilian Amazon, respectively. For the south Amazonia, the composition analysis revealed that IPE are associated with the configuration and formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Along the coast, intense precipitation events are associated with mesoscale systems, such Squall Lines. In Northwest Amazonia IPE are apparently associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and/or local convection.

O impacto da remoção de peixes sobre a dinâmica e estrutura dos grupos funcionais fitoplanctônicos em um lago raso tropical durante uma seca severa

The artifi cial eutrophication is one of the biggest t h reat for the quality of aquatic ecosystems in the whole world. The expectations for the future climatic scenarios in arid and semi - arid regions are intense and frequent droughts enhancing the risk of eutrophicati on and cyanobacterial blooms. Restoration techniques of eutrophic lakes were proposed to reduce nutrient loading and improve the water quality. A successful technique used in temperate regions is the biomanipulation by benthivorous fish removal . Our hypoth esis is that the benthivorous fish removal reduces phytoplankton total biomass and change the composition of phytoplankton functional groups, improving water quality. The aim of the study was evaluate the impact of biomanipulation on phytoplankton function al groups and in the water quality. We applied the technique of biomanipulation in the artificial lake ESEC, in a semi - arid region of Brazil and analyzed the physical and chemical variables and the dynamic of phytoplankton functional groups monthly during November 2012 to August 2013. With the removal of benthivorous fish we observed a significant increase of the euphotic depth, phytoplankton richness and the recruitment of green algae (groups F and J ), indicators of good water quality. However, we did not observe significant differences on total phosphorous concentration and on phytoplankton biomass and diversity. The drought effect in the region during the study was evident , promoting a drastic reduction on water level which influenced the availability of resource and affected phytoplankton community before the biomanipulation. To evaluate the effect of severe drought on the dynamic of phytoplankton functional groups and test if the drought periods are favorable to dominance of cyanobacterial groups, we stu died two artificial neighbors lakes (ESEC and Pocinhos) in a semi - arid tropical region during May 2012 to February 2013. We observed a temporal differentiation of biotic and abiotic variables caused by drought. Both lakes presented reduction of 2 meters of water level and increase on conductivity, turbidity, nutrients concentration and a reduction on water transparency, during the severe drought. The deeper lake (Pocinhos) increased phytoplankton total biomass and presented cyanobacterial functional group d ominance (group S N ) and the shallower lake (ESEC) reduced phytoplankton total biomass and presented dominance of mixotrophic and flagellate functional groups (groups W 1 e W 2 ). Summarizing, the knowledge of the effects of benthivorous fish removal in semi - a rid tropical lakes still unknown and this study had limitations caused by the impact of drought. Thus, it is necessary a long term monitoring to investigate the real effects of biomanipulation on the functioning of the studied ecosystems. Otherwise, period s of drought could have opposite effects (increase or reduction) on total biomass and composition of phytoplankton functional groups. Drought not always leads to dominance of cyanobacterial groups.

Influência da seca extrema na dinâmica fitoplanctônica de um reservatório da região tropical semiárida: uma abordagem morfofuncional

Droughts are climatic phenomena whose frequency has increased in the last decades and also compromised drinkable water supplies in semiarid regions. The lack of rain combined with high evaporation rates promotes a significant reduction of the volume of reservoirs in these regions. Shallower conditions favors nutrients concentration and phytoplankton overgrowth, including potentially toxic cyanobacteria blooming. Therefore, there is a tendency to the intensification of eutrophication in those reservoirs during drought periods. Phytoplankton can respond quickly to environmental conditions related to light and nutrient availability by changes in algal biomass and composition, therefore it is considered a good predictor of environmental variables. Two functional approaches - Reynolds’s Functional Groups (FG) and Kruk’s Morphologically Based Functional Groups (MBFG) - were used to assess which environmental variables were responsible for phytoplankton dynamics, in addition to compare which functional approach explains environmental changes better. This study highlights that the reduction of 90% in the volume of a tropical reservoir of Brazilian semi-arid region, as well as light limitation and nutrient increase, can promote phytoplankton overgrowth. Multivariate analyses using both functional approaches indicated a clear separation between high volumes and low volumes conditions, showing that light and nutrient availability were the main variables that better explained the combination of functional groups. The composition of phytoplankton assemblage changed from species of meso-eutrophic habitats (FG: F and J; MBFG: VI), to organisms of eutrophic and turbid environments (FG: SN and M; MBFG: VIII and VII) during shallower conditions. Both ecological approaches described properly the phytoplankton dynamics according to light and trophic state alterations related to the water volume reduction, therefore they can be considered as equivalent approaches for using in similar environments.

Estudo do balanço de umidade por meio de modelos regionais para o clima do passado e do futuro sobre a América do Sul

In the context of climate change over South America (SA) has been observed that the combination of high temperatures and rain more temperatures less rainfall, cause different impacts such as extreme precipitation events, favorable conditions for fires and droughts. As a result, these regions face growing threat of water shortage, local or generalized. Thus, the water availability in Brazil depends largely on the weather and its variations in different time scales. In this sense, the main objective of this research is to study the moisture budget through regional climate models (RCM) from Project Regional Climate Change Assessments for La Plata Basin (CLARIS-LPB) and combine these RCM through two statistical techniques in an attempt to improve prediction on three areas of AS: Amazon (AMZ), Northeast Brazil (NEB) and the Plata Basin (LPB) in past climates (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100). The moisture transport on AS was investigated through the moisture fluxes vertically integrated. The main results showed that the average fluxes of water vapor in the tropics (AMZ and NEB) are higher across the eastern and northern edges, thus indicating that the contributions of the trade winds of the North Atlantic and South are equally important for the entry moisture during the months of JJA and DJF. This configuration was observed in all the models and climates. In comparison climates, it was found that the convergence of the flow of moisture in the past weather was smaller in the future in various regions and seasons. Similarly, the majority of the SPC simulates the future climate, reduced precipitation in tropical regions (AMZ and NEB), and an increase in the LPB region. The second phase of this research was to carry out combination of RCM in more accurately predict precipitation, through the multiple regression techniques for components Main (C.RPC) and convex combination (C.EQM), and then analyze and compare combinations of RCM (ensemble). The results indicated that the combination was better in RPC represent precipitation observed in both climates. Since, in addition to showing values be close to those observed, the technique obtained coefficient of correlation of moderate to strong magnitude in almost every month in different climates and regions, also lower dispersion of data (RMSE). A significant advantage of the combination of methods was the ability to capture extreme events (outliers) for the study regions. In general, it was observed that the wet C.EQM captures more extreme, while C.RPC can capture more extreme dry climates and in the three regions studied.