A hypothesis test using bias-adjusted AR estimators for classifying time series in small samples

A new test of hypothesis for classifying stationary time series based on the bias-adjusted estimators of the fitted autoregressive model is proposed. It is shown theoretically that the proposed test has desirable properties. Simulation results show that when time series are short, the size and power estimates of the proposed test are reasonably good, and thus this test is reliable in discriminating between short-length time series. As the length of the time series increases, the performance of the proposed test improves, but the benefit of bias-adjustment reduces. The proposed hypothesis test is applied to two real data sets: the annual real GDP per capita of six European countries, and quarterly real GDP per capita of five European countries. The application results demonstrate that the proposed test displays reasonably good performance in classifying relatively short time series.

Characterising and predicting cyber attacks using the Cyber Attacker Model Profile (CAMP)

Purpose Ethnographic studies of cyber attacks typically aim to explain a particular profile of attackers in qualitative terms. The purpose of this paper is to formalise some of the approaches to build a Cyber Attacker Model Profile (CAMP) that can be used to characterise and predict cyber attacks. Design/methodology/approach The paper builds a model using social and economic independent or predictive variables from several eastern European countries and benchmarks indicators of cybercrime within the Australian financial services system. Findings The paper found a very strong link between perceived corruption and GDP in two distinct groups of countries – corruption in Russia was closely linked to the GDP of Belarus, Moldova and Russia, while corruption in Lithuania was linked to GDP in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Ukraine. At the same time corruption in Russia and Ukraine were also closely linked. These results support previous research that indicates a strong link between been legitimate economy and the black economy in many countries of Eastern Europe and the Baltic states. The results of the regression analysis suggest that a highly skilled workforce which is mobile and working in an environment of high perceived corruption in the target countries is related to increases in cybercrime even within Australia. It is important to note that the data used for the dependent and independent variables were gathered over a seven year time period, which included large economic shocks such as the global financial crisis. Originality/value This is the first paper to use a modelling approach to directly show the relationship between various social, economic and demographic factors in the Baltic states and Eastern Europe, and the level of card skimming and card not present fraud in Australia.

Crossword puzzle attack on NLS

NLS is one of the stream ciphers submitted to the eSTREAM project. We present a distinguishing attack on NLS by Crossword Puzzle (CP) attack method which is introduced in this paper. We build the distinguisher by using linear approximations of both the non-linear feedback shift register (NFSR) and the nonlinear filter function (NLF). Since the bias of the distinguisher depends on the Konst value, which is a key-dependent word, we present the graph showing how the bias of distinguisher vary with Konst. In result, we estimate the bias of the distinguisher to be around O(2^−30). Therefore, we claim that NLS is distinguishable from truly random cipher after observing O(2^60) keystream words. The experiments also show that our distinguishing attack is successful on 90.3% of Konst among 2^32 possible values. We extend the CP attack to NLSv2 which is a tweaked version of NLS. In result, we build a distinguisher which has the bias of around 2− 48. Even though this attack is below the eSTREAM criteria (2^−40), the security margin of NLSv2 seems to be too low.

Extreme water level exceedance probabilities around Australia

The potential impacts of extreme water level events on our coasts are increasing as populations grow and sea levels rise. To better prepare for the future, coastal engineers and managers need accurate estimates of average exceedance probabilities for extreme water levels. In this paper, we estimate present day probabilities of extreme water levels around the entire coastline of Australia. Tides and storm surges generated by extra-tropical storms were included by creating a 61-year (1949-2009) hindcast of water levels using a high resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model driven with meteorological data from a global reanalysis. Tropical cyclone-induced surges were included through numerical modelling of a database of synthetic tropical cyclones equivalent to 10,000 years of cyclone activity around Australia. Predicted water level data was analysed using extreme value theory to construct return period curves for both the water level hindcast and synthetic tropical cyclone modelling. These return period curves were then combined by taking the highest water level at each return period.

Investor sentiment as conditioning information in asset pricing

This paper assesses whether incorporating investor sentiment as conditioning information in asset-pricing models helps capture the impacts of the size, value, liquidity and momentum effects on risk-adjusted returns of individual stocks. We use survey sentiment measures and a composite index as proxies for investor sentiment. In our conditional framework, the size effect becomes less important in the conditional CAPM and is no longer significant in all the other models examined. Furthermore, the conditional models often capture the value, liquidity and momentum effects.

Corner and finger formation in Hele-Shaw flow with kinetic undercooling regularisation

We examine the effect of a kinetic undercooling condition on the evolution of a free boundary in Hele--Shaw flow, in both bubble and channel geometries. We present analytical and numerical evidence that the bubble boundary is unstable and may develop one or more corners in finite time, for both expansion and contraction cases. This loss of regularity is interesting because it occurs regardless of whether the less viscous fluid is displacing the more viscous fluid, or vice versa. We show that small contracting bubbles are described to leading order by a well-studied geometric flow rule. Exact solutions to this asymptotic problem continue past the corner formation until the bubble contracts to a point as a slit in the limit. Lastly, we consider the evolving boundary with kinetic undercooling in a Saffman--Taylor channel geometry. The boundary may either form corners in finite time, or evolve to a single long finger travelling at constant speed, depending on the strength of kinetic undercooling. We demonstrate these two different behaviours numerically. For the travelling finger, we present results of a numerical solution method similar to that used to demonstrate the selection of discrete fingers by surface tension. With kinetic undercooling, a continuum of corner-free travelling fingers exists for any finger width above a critical value, which goes to zero as the kinetic undercooling vanishes. We have not been able to compute the discrete family of analytic solutions, predicted by previous asymptotic analysis, because the numerical scheme cannot distinguish between solutions characterised by analytic fingers and those which are corner-free but non-analytic.

Exploring innovation driven value creation in B2B service firms : The roles of the manager, employees, and customers in value creation

This study adopts the premise that innovation capability underpins a service firm's value creation ability and that management style, employee behaviors and marketing underpin its innovation capability. This study examines the role of managers and employees in the creation and delivery of superior value to customers via the firm's innovation capability. To test this premise the current study examines the role of transformational leadership (TFL) as an aspect of the service firm's management style in creating and delivering value to customers through its services. This study adopts a multi-level study, collecting data from managers, employees and customers of service firms in a Southeast-Asian country, Cambodia. The results show that a service firm's innovation capability has a positive effect on the firm's value offering (VO), the VO has a positive relationship with customer perceived value-in use (PVI), and PVI has a positive relationship with firm performance. This study also finds moderating effects of TFL on the relationship between service innovation capability and VO, and of service marketing capability on the relationship between VO and PVI respectively.

Understanding service firms brand value creation : a multilevel perspective including the overarching role of service brand marketing capability

Purpose This study seeks to extend the existing literature on value creation by specifically focusing on service brand value creation (SBVC) and the role of brand marketing. Design/methodology/approach The authors first develop a model of SBVC and simultaneously investigate SBVC from the firm perspective (service brand value offering – SBVO) and from the customer perspective (service brand perceive value-in use – SBPVI). Subsequently, they investigate the effects of SBVO on SBPVI and integrate the moderation role of service brand marketing capability (SBMC) on the relationship between SBVO-SBPVI outcomes. SBVO is viewed as the firms' interpretation of and responsiveness to customer requirements via the delivery of superior performance the value offering through the service brand and SBPVI customers' perceived value from the firms' service brand. The contributions of SBVC to customer-based performance outcomes are then investigated. Hypotheses were tested using a sample of the senior managers of service firms in Cambodia and their customers. A survey was used to gather data via a drop-and-collect approach. Findings Results indicated that SBVO is positively related to SBPVI and SBPVI is positively related to customer-based performance. Noticeably, the results revealed that SBMC enhances the positive relationship between the firm SBVO and the customers SBPVI. Originality/value The paper extends the previous literature on value creation to capture SBVC. More significantly, the premise of the theoretical framework provides a breakthrough in the current SBVC literature which has so far neglected to take into account the dyadic approach (firm-customer) in understanding value creation and more specifically SBVC. The model is expanded by looking at the contingency role of SBMC in communicating value to customers.

Understanding the value of social media in organisations : a taxonomic approach

While organizations strive to leverage the vast information generated daily from social media platforms and both decision makers and consultants are keen to identify and exploit this information’s value, there has been little research into social media in the business context. Social media are diverse, varying in scope and functionality, this diversity entailing a complex of attributes and characteristics, resulting in confusion for both researchers and organizations. Taxonomies are important precursors in emerging fields and are foundational for rigorous theory building. Though aspects of social media have been studied from various discipline perspectives, this work has been largely descriptive. Thus, while the need for a rigorous taxonomy of social media is strong, previous efforts to classify social media suffer limitations – e.g. lack of a systematic taxonomic method, overreliance on intuition, disregard for the users’ perspective, and inadequate consideration of purpose. Thus, this study was mainly initiated by the overarching question “How can social media in the business context be usefully classified?” In order to address this gap, the current paper proposes a systematic method for developing a taxonomy appropriate to study social media in organizations context, combining Nickerson et al,’s (2012) IS taxonomy building guidelines and a Repertory grid (RepGrid) approach.

Burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Nepal and the availability and affordability of NCD medicines

Background: Traditionally communicable diseases were the main causes of burden in developing countries like Nepal. In recent years non-communicable diseases (NCDs), mainly cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), cancer, chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes mellitus, impose a larger disease burden compared to communicable diseases. Most elements of health and medicine policies in Nepal are still focused on communicable diseases. There is limited evidence about NCDs and NCD medicines in Nepal. Aim: To explore the gap between the burden of NCDs and the availability and affordability of NCD medicines in Nepal. Methods: Biomedical databases like Medline, Scopus, Web of Science and other online sources (including Global Burden of Diseases data) were searched for data on the burden of NCDs in term of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). The Essential Medicines List (EML) of Nepal was compared with World Health Organisation (EML) for inclusion of NCD medicines. Results: In Nepal, NCDs caused nearly 45% of the total 10.5 million DALYs in 2010. CVDs (15.2%), were the leading cause of NCDs burden followed by chronic respiratory diseases (14.7%), cancer (7.3%) and diabetes mellitus (3.2%). One hospital based national survey found that 37% of hospitalised patients had NCDs. Among them, 38% had heart disease followed by COPD (33%) , and diabetes (10%). Most (23 out of 28) non-cancer NCD medicines recommended in WHO-EML were present in Nepal's EML, theoretically indicating good availability. However, it is difficult to say whether they are accessible and affordable due to the lack of adequate data on access and pricing. Conclusion: This study gives some insight into the burden of NCDs. Although NCD medicines are available in Nepal, further research is required to determine whether they are accessible and affordable to the general population.

A simulation modeling approach to understanding information technology value cocreation

The business value of information technology (IT) is increasingly being cocreated by multiple parties, opening opportunities for new research initiatives. Previous studies on IT value cocreation mainly focus on analyzing sources of cocreated IT value, yet inadequately accommodating the influence of competition relationships in IT value cocreation activities. To fill the gap, this in-progress paper suggests an agent-based modeling (also simulation) approach to investigating potential influences of the dynamic interplay between cooperation and competition relationships in IT value cocreation settings. In particular, the research proposes a high-level conceptual framework to position general IT value cocreation processes. A relational network view is offered, aiming at decomposing and systemizing several typical cooperation and competition scenarios in practical IT value cocreation settings. The application of a simulation approach to analytical insights and to theory building is illustrated.

Ethics in project management : some Aristotelian insights

Purpose My aim is to introduce, in the project management field, an Aristotelian ethics lens moving beyond the classical deontological and consequentialism approaches underlying the current ethical practices and codes of ethics and professional conducts. In doing so, I wish to pose the premises of a debate on the implications of a conscious ethical perspective for the structure and agency relationship within the project management field Design/methodology/approach Project management is a knowledge field on its own right. However the current perspectives applied to make sense and develop the field (modernism vs. postmodernism) leads to dichotomous thinking rather than recognizing the merits and contextual validity of both sides. I call for Aristotelian Ethics as a way of moving beyond this dichotomous thinking. I introduce briefly Aristotelian Ethics and its consequences in term of relation theory – practice, means and ends, facts and values, and finally politics (i.e. being part of a community of practitioners). Then I illustrate some consequences for the field taking PMI Code of Ethics and Professional Conduct and APM Code of Professional Conduct as supports for discussion Findings I suggest a need for revisiting and/or redesigning the codes of ethics and professional conducts for project management according to an Aristotelian perspective, in order to move beyond the normative limitations of classical deontological (conflict between competing duties, exemplified by PMI Code) or consequentialism (focusing on the "right" outcome to the detriment of duties, exemplified by APM Code) approaches (both, in fact, leading to a disconnection means and ends, and facts and values). This implicates shifting our view from the question "what is my duty?" to the questions "why should I undertake my duty?" and "how ought I act in this situation?" Practical implications Raising Professional Bodies, Industry and Education institutions awareness and consciousness and leading them to rethink about codes of ethics and the implications for the way they conceive practice and research, bodies of knowledge, credentialing, education... Originality/value To the best of my knowledge, this kind of discussion has not yet been conducted within the project management field, and considering the implication of project management in our life and for the well being of the society, an ethical debate may present some value(s)

Drawing out critical thinking : testing the methodological value of drawing collaboratively

Early childhood research has long established that drawing is a central, and important activity for young children. Less common are investigations into the drawing activity of adults involved in early childhood. A team of adult early childhood researchers, with differing exposures and familiarities with drawing, experimented with intergenerational collaborative drawing with colleagues, students, family members and others, to explore the effectiveness of drawing as a research process and as an arts-based methodology. This testing prompted critical thinking into how drawing might facilitate research that involves young children, to operate in more communicable ways, and how research-focused drawings might occur in reference to a research project.

Designing channels for brand value : four meta-models

Channels are becoming an increasingly important area for companies to innovate, specifically as they provide direct points of contact with their customers. However, little is known in regards to multi-channel strategies that embody strategic brand values and how customers experience these channels collectively. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how organisations configure multi- channel strategies to communicate their brand value and experience to their customers. Data was collated from sixty companies through a content analysis methodology within the retail sector. Results uncovered commonalities through the identification of four meta-models surrounding common brand values, intended emotive experience, individual channels and the customer segment. These meta-models are titled: High Quality, Trust, Convenience and Community. This research also presents implications of a multi-channel design tool based on findings from this study to help reinforce company brand values and design an overall connected customer experience.