960 resultados para Accelerated failure time model
Resumo:
Presenilin 1 (PS1) mutations are responsible for a majority of early onset familial Alzheimer's disease (FAD) cases, in part by increasing the production of Abeta peptides. However, emerging evidence suggests other possible effects of PS1 on synaptic dysfunction where PS1 might contribute to the pathology independent of Abeta. We chose to study the L286V mutation, an aggressive FAD mutation which has never been analyzed at the electrophysiological and morphological levels. In addition, we analyzed for the first time the long term effects of wild-type human PS1 overexpression. We investigated the consequences of the overexpression of either wild-type human PS1 (hPS1) or the L286V mutated PS1 variant (mutPS1) on synaptic functions by analyzing synaptic plasticity and associated spine density changes from 3 to 15 months of age. We found that mutPS1 induces a transient increase observed only in 4- to 5-month-old mutPS1 animals in NMDA receptor (NMDA-R)-mediated responses and LTP compared with hPS1 mice and nontransgenic littermates. The increase in synaptic functions is concomitant with an increase in spine density. With increasing age, however, we found that the overexpression of human wild-type PS1 progressively decreased NMDA-R-mediated synaptic transmission and LTP, without neurodegeneration. These results identify for the first time a transient increase in synaptic function associated with L286V mutated PS1 variant in an age-dependent manner. In addition, they support the view that the PS1 overexpression promotes synaptic dysfunction in an Abeta-independent manner and underline the crucial role of PS1 during both normal and pathological aging.
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In this paper, I provide a formal justi cation for a well-established coattail effect, when a popular candidate at one branch of government attracts votes to candidates from the same political party for other branches of government. A political agency frame- work with moral hazard is applied to analyze coattails in simultaneous presidential and congressional elections. I show that coattail voting is a natural outcome of the optimal reelection scheme adopted by a representative voter to motivate politicians' efforts in a retrospective voting environment. I assume that an office-motivated politician (executive or congressman) prefers her counterpart to be affiliated with the same political party. This correlation of incentives leads the voter to adopt a joint performance evaluation rule, which is conditioned on the politicians belonging to the same party or different parties. The two-sided coattail effects then arise. On the one hand, the executive's suc- cess/failure props up/drags down her partisan ally in congressional election, which implies presidential coattails. On the other hand, the executive's reelection itself is affected by the congressman's performance, which results in reverse coattails. JEL classi fication: D72, D86. Keywords: Coattail voting; Presidential coattails; Reverse coattails; Simultaneous elections; Political Agency; Retrospective voting.
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Ventricular assist devices (VADs) are used in treatment for terminal heart failure or as a bridge to transplantation. We created biVAD using the artificial muscles (AMs) that supports both ventricles at the same time. We developed the test bench (TB) as the in vitro evaluating system to enable the measurement of performance. The biVAD exerts different pressure between left and right ventricle like the heart physiologically does. The heart model based on child's heart was constructed in silicone. This model was fitted with the biVAD. Two pipettes containing water with an ultrasonic sensor placed on top of each and attached to ventricles reproduced the preload and the after load of each ventricle by the real-time measurement of the fluid height variation proportionally to the exerted pressure. The LabVIEW software extrapolated the displaced volume and the pressure generated by each side of our biVAD. The development of a standardized protocol permitted the validation of the TB for in vitro evaluation, measurement of the performances of the AM biVAD herein, and reproducibility of data.
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BACKGROUND: In vitro aggregating brain cell cultures containing all types of brain cells have been shown to be useful for neurotoxicological investigations. The cultures are used for the detection of nervous system-specific effects of compounds by measuring multiple endpoints, including changes in enzyme activities. Concentration-dependent neurotoxicity is determined at several time points. METHODS: A Markov model was set up to describe the dynamics of brain cell populations exposed to potentially neurotoxic compounds. Brain cells were assumed to be either in a healthy or stressed state, with only stressed cells being susceptible to cell death. Cells may have switched between these states or died with concentration-dependent transition rates. Since cell numbers were not directly measurable, intracellular lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) activity was used as a surrogate. Assuming that changes in cell numbers are proportional to changes in intracellular LDH activity, stochastic enzyme activity models were derived. Maximum likelihood and least squares regression techniques were applied for estimation of the transition rates. Likelihood ratio tests were performed to test hypotheses about the transition rates. Simulation studies were used to investigate the performance of the transition rate estimators and to analyze the error rates of the likelihood ratio tests. The stochastic time-concentration activity model was applied to intracellular LDH activity measurements after 7 and 14 days of continuous exposure to propofol. The model describes transitions from healthy to stressed cells and from stressed cells to death. RESULTS: The model predicted that propofol would affect stressed cells more than healthy cells. Increasing propofol concentration from 10 to 100 μM reduced the mean waiting time for transition to the stressed state by 50%, from 14 to 7 days, whereas the mean duration to cellular death reduced more dramatically from 2.7 days to 6.5 hours. CONCLUSION: The proposed stochastic modeling approach can be used to discriminate between different biological hypotheses regarding the effect of a compound on the transition rates. The effects of different compounds on the transition rate estimates can be quantitatively compared. Data can be extrapolated at late measurement time points to investigate whether costs and time-consuming long-term experiments could possibly be eliminated.
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A mathematical model is developed to analyse the combined flow and solidification of a liquid in a small pipe or two-dimensional channel. In either case the problem reduces to solving a single equation for the position of the solidification front. Results show that for a large range of flow rates the closure time is approximately constant, and the value depends primarily on the wall temperature and channel width. However, the ice shape at closure will be very different for low and high fluxes. As the flow rate increases the closure time starts to depend on the flow rate until the closure time increases dramatically, subsequently the pipe will never close.
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In this paper the two main drawbacks of the heat balance integral methods are examined. Firstly we investigate the choice of approximating function. For a standard polynomial form it is shown that combining the Heat Balance and Refined Integral methods to determine the power of the highest order term will either lead to the same, or more often, greatly improved accuracy on standard methods. Secondly we examine thermal problems with a time-dependent boundary condition. In doing so we develop a logarithmic approximating function. This new function allows us to model moving peaks in the temperature profile, a feature that previous heat balance methods cannot capture. If the boundary temperature varies so that at some time t & 0 it equals the far-field temperature, then standard methods predict that the temperature is everywhere at this constant value. The new method predicts the correct behaviour. It is also shown that this function provides even more accurate results, when coupled with the new CIM, than the polynomial profile. Analysis primarily focuses on a specified constant boundary temperature and is then extended to constant flux, Newton cooling and time dependent boundary conditions.
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A 5-year-old previously healthy boy was admitted for abdominal pain and vomiting. Physical examination showed tachypnoe (32/min), hepatomegaly and painful palpation of the upper right abdominal quadrant. Laboratory tests were normal except for elevated ammonium (202mcmol/l). Chest X-ray was performed, showing cardiomegaly and interstitial edema. Transthoracic echocardiography revealed dilated left cavities and LV hypertrophy together with a diffuse hypokinesia and LVEF of 30-40%. Diuretics and ACE-inhibitors were introduced. At that time, the differential diagnosis for the DCM included myocarditis, congenital or genetic, metabolic or autoimmune disease. The next day, the boy underwent cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) examination, showing a severe dilatation of the LV with an end-diastolic diameter of 50mm and a volume of 150ml. LVEF was 20% with diffuse LV hypokinesia (Fig. 1). No late enhancement was present after Gadolinium injection, ruling out myocarditis. Further laboratory metabolic analysis indicated severely decreased total and free carnitin levels and low renal carnitin reabsorption, corroborating the diagnosis of primary carnitin deficiency (PCD). Carnitin substitution was initiated. The clinical condition rapidly improved. No symptoms of heart failure were present anymore. A follow-up CMR performed 9 months later confirmed the recovery. LV end-diastolic volume decreased from 150ml to 66ml, LVEF increased from 20% to 55% (Fig. 2). Late enhancement was absent after Gadolinum injection (Fig. 3).Carnitin is required for the transport of fatty acids from the cytosol into mitochondria during lipid breakdown. 75% of carnitin is obtained from food, 25% is endogenously synthesized. PCD is an autosomal recessive disorder resulting from impairment of a transporter activity, caused by mutation of the SLC22A5 gene. Incidence is about 1 in 40'000 newborns. Diagnosis is usually made at age 1 to 7. Three forms of PCD are described. In the form associated with cardiomyopathy, the disease is progressive and patient die from heart failure if not treated. Substitution of L-Carnitin leads to a dramatic improvement of disease course.This case underlines the crucial role of etiologic diagnostics in this reversible form of DCM. Early diagnostics and therapy are critical for the prognosis of the patient. This is furthermore an example of a role played by CMR in the diagnostic work-up of heart failure and its follow-up under therapy.
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OBJECTIVES: Increasing evidence suggests that left ventricular remodeling is associated with a shift from fatty acid to glucose metabolism for energy production. The aim of this study was to determine whether left ventricular remodeling with and without late-onset heart failure after myocardial infarction is associated with regional changes in the expression of regulatory proteins of glucose or fatty acid metabolism. METHODS: Myocardial infarction was induced in rats by ligation of the left anterior descending coronary artery (LAD). In infarcted and sham-operated hearts the peri-infarction region (5-mm zone surrounding the region at risk), the interventricular septum and the right ventricular free wall were separated for analysis. RESULTS: At 8 and 20 weeks after LAD ligation, the peri-infarction region and the septum exhibited marked re-expression of atrial natriuretic factor [+252+/-37 and +1093+/-279%, respectively, in the septum (P<0.05)] and of alpha-smooth muscle actin [+34+/-10 and +43+/-14%, respectively, in the septum (P<0.05)]. At 8 weeks, when left ventricular hypertrophy was present without signs of heart failure, myocardial mRNA expression of glucose transporters (GLUT-1 and GLUT-4) was not altered, whereas mRNA expression of medium-chain acyl-CoA dehydrogenase (MCAD) was significantly reduced in the peri-infarction region (-25+/-7%; P<0.05). In hearts exhibiting heart failure 20 weeks after infarct-induction there was a change in all three ventricular regions of both mRNA and protein content of GLUT-1 [+72+/-28 and +121+/-15%, respectively, in the peri-infarction region (P<0.05)] and MCAD [-29+/-9 and -56+/-4%, respectively, in the peri-infarction region (P<0.05)]. CONCLUSION: In rats with large myocardial infarction, progression from compensated remodeling to overt heart failure is associated with upregulation of GLUT-1 and downregulation of MCAD in both the peri-infarction region and the septum.
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Inhibition of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) has become the standard of care for patients presenting with wet age-related macular degeneration. However, monthly intravitreal injections are required for optimal efficacy. We have previously shown that electroporation enabled ciliary muscle gene transfer results in sustained protein secretion into the vitreous for up to 9 months. Here, we evaluated the long-term efficacy of ciliary muscle gene transfer of three soluble VEGF receptor-1 (sFlt-1) variants in a rat model of laser-induced choroidal neovascularization (CNV). All three sFlt-1 variants significantly diminished vascular leakage and neovascularization as measured by fluorescein angiography (FA) and flatmount choroid at 3 weeks. FA and infracyanine angiography demonstrated that inhibition of CNV was maintained for up to 6 months after gene transfer of the two shortest sFlt-1 variants. Throughout, clinical efficacy was correlated with sustained VEGF neutralization in the ocular media. Interestingly, treatment with sFlt-1 induced a 50% downregulation of VEGF messenger RNA levels in the retinal pigment epithelium and the choroid. We demonstrate for the first time that non-viral gene transfer can achieve a long-term reduction of VEGF levels and efficacy in the treatment of CNV.Gene Therapy advance online publication, 27 June 2013; doi:10.1038/gt.2013.36.
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In a study of congenital transmission during acute infection of Toxoplasma gondii, 23 pregnant Balb/c mice were inoculated orally with two cysts each of the P strain. Eight mice were inoculated 6-11 days after becoming pregnant (Group 1). Eight mice inoculated on the 10th-15th day of pregnancy (Group 2) were treated with 100 mg/kg/day of minocycline 48 h after inoculation. Seven mice inoculated on the 10th-15th day of pregnancy were not treated and served as a control (Group 3). Congenital transmission was evaluated through direct examination of the brains of the pups or by bioassay and serologic tests. Congenital transmission was observed in 20 (60.6%) of the 33 pups of Group 1, in one (3.6%) of the 28 pups of Group 2, and in 13 (54.2%) of the 24 pups of Group 3. Forty-nine Balb/c mice were examined in the study of congenital transmission of T. gondii during chronic infection. The females showed reproductive problems during this phase of infection. It was observed accentuated hypertrophy of the endometrium and myometrium. Only two of the females gave birth. Our results demonstrate that Balb/c mice with acute toxoplasmosis can be used as a model for studies of congenital T. gondii infection. Our observations indicate the potential of this model for testing new chemotherapeutic agents against congenital toxoplasmosis.
Credit risk contributions under the Vasicek one-factor model: a fast wavelet expansion approximation
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To measure the contribution of individual transactions inside the total risk of a credit portfolio is a major issue in financial institutions. VaR Contributions (VaRC) and Expected Shortfall Contributions (ESC) have become two popular ways of quantifying the risks. However, the usual Monte Carlo (MC) approach is known to be a very time consuming method for computing these risk contributions. In this paper we consider the Wavelet Approximation (WA) method for Value at Risk (VaR) computation presented in [Mas10] in order to calculate the Expected Shortfall (ES) and the risk contributions under the Vasicek one-factor model framework. We decompose the VaR and the ES as a sum of sensitivities representing the marginal impact on the total portfolio risk. Moreover, we present technical improvements in the Wavelet Approximation (WA) that considerably reduce the computational effort in the approximation while, at the same time, the accuracy increases.
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In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.
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Intercellular communication is achieved at specialized regions of the plasma membrane by¦gap junctions. Gap junctions are transmembrane channels allowing direct contacts between¦the cytoplasms of neighboring cells. Each cell participates with one hemichannel, or¦connexon, made of six protein subunits named connexins. Thanks to these junctions, cells¦potentially share a pool of small molecules and metabolites, such as nucleotides, amino acids¦and second messengers.¦In an ischemic (i.e. non-perfused) territory of the brain, irreversible damage progresses over¦time from the centre of the most severe flow reduction to the periphery with less disturbed¦perfusion. Functionally impaired tissue can survive and recover if sufficient reperfusion is reestablished¦within a limited time period, which depends on various factors and mechanisms¦modulating the signaling pathways leading to cell death.¦Observations were made indicating the presence of electrical coupling between neurons which¦resist better to an ischemic insult. This electrical coupling is likely to be mediated by¦Connexin36 (Cx36), a neuron specific connexin isoform. It was demonstrated in the past that¦global ischemia induces a selective upregulation of Cx36 expression in regions with neurons¦that survive the insult whereas others undergo apoptosis and die. These observations raise the¦possibility that the neuronal gap junction Cx36 might play a role in the destiny of neurons¦after cerebral ischemia.¦The aim of this work was to characterize the regulation of Connexin36 in a mouse model of¦transient focal cerebral ischemia by immunofluorescence and Western blot analysis. Our¦immunofluorescence results suggest a specific increase in Cx36 in the penumbral region of¦the ischemic hemisphere.
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BACKGROUND: Early virological failure of antiretroviral therapy associated with the selection of drug-resistant human immunodeficiency virus type 1 in treatment-naive patients is very critical, because virological failure significantly increases the risk of subsequent failures. Therefore, we evaluated the possible role of minority quasispecies of drug-resistant human immunodeficiency virus type 1, which are undetectable at baseline by population sequencing, with regard to early virological failure. METHODS: We studied 4 patients who experienced early virological failure of a first-line regimen of lamivudine, tenofovir, and either efavirenz or nevirapine and 18 control patients undergoing similar treatment without virological failure. The key mutations K65R, K103N, Y181C, M184V, and M184I in the reverse transcriptase were quantified by allele-specific real-time polymerase chain reaction performed on plasma samples before and during early virological treatment failure. RESULTS: Before treatment, none of the viruses showed any evidence of drug resistance in the standard genotype analysis. Minority quasispecies with either the M184V mutation or the M184I mutation were detected in 3 of 18 control patients. In contrast, all 4 patients whose treatment was failing had harbored drug-resistant viruses at low frequencies before treatment, with a frequency range of 0.07%-2.0%. A range of 1-4 mutations was detected in viruses from each patient. Most of the minority quasispecies were rapidly selected and represented the major virus population within weeks after the patients started antiretroviral therapy. All 4 patients showed good adherence to treatment. Nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor plasma concentrations were in normal ranges for all 4 patients at 2 separate assessment times. CONCLUSIONS: Minority quasispecies of drug-resistant viruses, detected at baseline, can rapidly outgrow and become the major virus population and subsequently lead to early therapy failure in treatment-naive patients who receive antiretroviral therapy regimens with a low genetic resistance barrier.