Calculation of the variance in surveys of the economic climate

Public opinion surveys have become progressively incorporated into systems of official statistics. Surveys of the economic climate are usually qualitative because they collect opinions of businesspeople and/or experts about the long-term indicators described by a number of variables. In such cases the responses are expressed in ordinal numbers, that is, the respondents verbally report, for example, whether during a given trimester the sales or the new orders have increased, decreased or remained the same as in the previous trimester. These data allow to calculate the percent of respondents in the total population (results are extrapolated), who select every one of the three options. Data are often presented in the form of an index calculated as the difference between the percent of those who claim that a given variable has improved in value and of those who claim that it has deteriorated. As in any survey conducted on a sample the question of the measurement of the sample error of the results has to be addressed, since the error influences both the reliability of the results and the calculation of the sample size adequate for a desired confidence interval. The results presented here are based on data from the Survey of the Business Climate (Encuesta de Clima Empresarial) developed through the collaboration of the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya) with the Chambers of Commerce (Cámaras de Comercio) of Sabadell and Terrassa.

The convenient calculation of some test statistics in models of discrete choice

The paper considers the use of artificial regression in calculating different types of score test when the log

Energy expenditure by doubly labeled water: validation in humans and proposed calculation.

To further validate the doubly labeled water method for measurement of CO2 production and energy expenditure in humans, we compared it with near-continuous respiratory gas exchange in nine healthy young adult males. Subjects were housed in a respiratory chamber for 4 days. Each received 2H2(18)O at either a low (n = 6) or a moderate (n = 3) isotope dose. Low and moderate doses produced initial 2H enrichments of 5 and 10 X 10(-3) atom percent excess, respectively, and initial 18O enrichments of 2 and 2.5 X 10(-2) atom percent excess, respectively. Total body water was calculated from isotope dilution in saliva collected at 4 and 5 h after the dose. CO2 production was calculated by the two-point method using the isotopic enrichments of urines collected just before each subject entered and left the chamber. Isotope enrichments relative to predose samples were measured by isotope ratio mass spectrometry. At low isotope dose, doubly labeled water overestimated average daily energy expenditure by 8 +/- 9% (SD) (range -7 to 22%). At moderate dose the difference was reduced to +4 +/- 5% (range 0-9%). The isotope elimination curves for 2H and 18O from serial urines collected from one of the subjects showed expected diurnal variations but were otherwise quite smooth. The overestimate may be due to approximations in the corrections for isotope fractionation and isotope dilution. An alternative approach to the corrections is presented that reduces the overestimate to 1%.

A peripheral dose calculation model for estimating second cancer risk after breast radiotherapy

AbstractBreast cancer is one of the most common cancers affecting one in eight women during their lives. Survival rates have increased steadily thanks to early diagnosis with mammography screening and more efficient treatment strategies. Post-operative radiation therapy is a standard of care in the management of breast cancer and has been shown to reduce efficiently both local recurrence rate and breast cancer mortality. Radiation therapy is however associated with some late effects for long-term survivors. Radiation-induced secondary cancer is a relatively rare but severe late effect of radiation therapy. Currently, radiotherapy plans are essentially optimized to maximize tumor control and minimize late deterministic effects (tissue reactions) that are mainly associated with high doses (» 1 Gy). With improved cure rates and new radiation therapy technologies, it is also important to evaluate and minimize secondary cancer risks for different treatment techniques. This is a particularly challenging task due to the large uncertainties in the dose-response relationship.In contrast with late deterministic effects, secondary cancers may be associated with much lower doses and therefore out-of-field doses (also called peripheral doses) that are typically inferior to 1 Gy need to be determined accurately. Out-of-field doses result from patient scatter and head scatter from the treatment unit. These doses are particularly challenging to compute and we characterized it by Monte Carlo (MC) calculation. A detailed MC model of the Siemens Primus linear accelerator has been thoroughly validated with measurements. We investigated the accuracy of such a model for retrospective dosimetry in epidemiological studies on secondary cancers. Considering that patients in such large studies could be treated on a variety of machines, we assessed the uncertainty in reconstructed peripheral dose due to the variability of peripheral dose among various linac geometries. For large open fields (> 10x10 cm2), the uncertainty would be less than 50%, but for small fields and wedged fields the uncertainty in reconstructed dose could rise up to a factor of 10. It was concluded that such a model could be used for conventional treatments using large open fields only.The MC model of the Siemens Primus linac was then used to compare out-of-field doses for different treatment techniques in a female whole-body CT-based phantom. Current techniques such as conformai wedged-based radiotherapy and hybrid IMRT were investigated and compared to older two-dimensional radiotherapy techniques. MC doses were also compared to those of a commercial Treatment Planning System (TPS). While the TPS is routinely used to determine the dose to the contralateral breast and the ipsilateral lung which are mostly out of the treatment fields, we have shown that these doses may be highly inaccurate depending on the treatment technique investigated. MC shows that hybrid IMRT is dosimetrically similar to three-dimensional wedge-based radiotherapy within the field, but offers substantially reduced doses to out-of-field healthy organs.Finally, many different approaches to risk estimations extracted from the literature were applied to the calculated MC dose distribution. Absolute risks varied substantially as did the ratio of risk between two treatment techniques, reflecting the large uncertainties involved with current risk models. Despite all these uncertainties, the hybrid IMRT investigated resulted in systematically lower cancer risks than any of the other treatment techniques. More epidemiological studies with accurate dosimetry are required in the future to construct robust risk models. In the meantime, any treatment strategy that reduces out-of-field doses to healthy organs should be investigated. Electron radiotherapy might offer interesting possibilities with this regard.RésuméLe cancer du sein affecte une femme sur huit au cours de sa vie. Grâce au dépistage précoce et à des thérapies de plus en plus efficaces, le taux de guérison a augmenté au cours du temps. La radiothérapie postopératoire joue un rôle important dans le traitement du cancer du sein en réduisant le taux de récidive et la mortalité. Malheureusement, la radiothérapie peut aussi induire des toxicités tardives chez les patients guéris. En particulier, les cancers secondaires radio-induits sont une complication rare mais sévère de la radiothérapie. En routine clinique, les plans de radiothérapie sont essentiellement optimisées pour un contrôle local le plus élevé possible tout en minimisant les réactions tissulaires tardives qui sont essentiellement associées avec des hautes doses (» 1 Gy). Toutefois, avec l'introduction de différentes nouvelles techniques et avec l'augmentation des taux de survie, il devient impératif d'évaluer et de minimiser les risques de cancer secondaire pour différentes techniques de traitement. Une telle évaluation du risque est une tâche ardue étant donné les nombreuses incertitudes liées à la relation dose-risque.Contrairement aux effets tissulaires, les cancers secondaires peuvent aussi être induits par des basses doses dans des organes qui se trouvent hors des champs d'irradiation. Ces organes reçoivent des doses périphériques typiquement inférieures à 1 Gy qui résultent du diffusé du patient et du diffusé de l'accélérateur. Ces doses sont difficiles à calculer précisément, mais les algorithmes Monte Carlo (MC) permettent de les estimer avec une bonne précision. Un modèle MC détaillé de l'accélérateur Primus de Siemens a été élaboré et validé avec des mesures. La précision de ce modèle a également été déterminée pour la reconstruction de dose en épidémiologie. Si on considère que les patients inclus dans de larges cohortes sont traités sur une variété de machines, l'incertitude dans la reconstruction de dose périphérique a été étudiée en fonction de la variabilité de la dose périphérique pour différents types d'accélérateurs. Pour de grands champs (> 10x10 cm ), l'incertitude est inférieure à 50%, mais pour de petits champs et des champs filtrés, l'incertitude de la dose peut monter jusqu'à un facteur 10. En conclusion, un tel modèle ne peut être utilisé que pour les traitements conventionnels utilisant des grands champs.Le modèle MC de l'accélérateur Primus a été utilisé ensuite pour déterminer la dose périphérique pour différentes techniques dans un fantôme corps entier basé sur des coupes CT d'une patiente. Les techniques actuelles utilisant des champs filtrés ou encore l'IMRT hybride ont été étudiées et comparées par rapport aux techniques plus anciennes. Les doses calculées par MC ont été comparées à celles obtenues d'un logiciel de planification commercial (TPS). Alors que le TPS est utilisé en routine pour déterminer la dose au sein contralatéral et au poumon ipsilatéral qui sont principalement hors des faisceaux, nous avons montré que ces doses peuvent être plus ou moins précises selon la technTque étudiée. Les calculs MC montrent que la technique IMRT est dosimétriquement équivalente à celle basée sur des champs filtrés à l'intérieur des champs de traitement, mais offre une réduction importante de la dose aux organes périphériques.Finalement différents modèles de risque ont été étudiés sur la base des distributions de dose calculées par MC. Les risques absolus et le rapport des risques entre deux techniques de traitement varient grandement, ce qui reflète les grandes incertitudes liées aux différents modèles de risque. Malgré ces incertitudes, on a pu montrer que la technique IMRT offrait une réduction du risque systématique par rapport aux autres techniques. En attendant des données épidémiologiques supplémentaires sur la relation dose-risque, toute technique offrant une réduction des doses périphériques aux organes sains mérite d'être étudiée. La radiothérapie avec des électrons offre à ce titre des possibilités intéressantes.

The antibody response in mice to carrier-free synthetic polymers of Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite repetitive epitope is I-Ab-restricted: possible implications for malaria vaccines.

The immunogenicity of a novel synthetic peptide consisting of an average of 40 (Asn-Ala-Asn-Pro) repeats of the circumsporozoite protein of Plasmodium falciparum, (NANP)40, was studied in mice without using any carrier proteins. First, high titers of anti-(NANP)40 antibodies could be obtained after immunization of C57BL/6 mice. These antibodies also reacted with an extract of mosquitoes infected with P. falciparum sporozoites. C57BL/6 nu/nu mice did not produce antibodies against (NANP)40. Secondly, when 14 strains of mice with nine different H-2 haplotypes were immunized with (NANP)40 without carrier, only H-2b mice were found to produce anti-(NANP)40 antibodies, whereas all non-H-2b mice were consistently unresponsive. This response was demonstrated to be I-A-linked by using recombinant and mutant mice. I-Ab [B10.A(5R)] mice produced anti-(NANP)40 antibodies as well as H-2b inbred mice. B6CH-2bm12 I-Ab-mutant mice showed only a very low response. Third, the antibody response against (NANP)40 could be induced in nonresponder mice by immunization with the peptide coupled to a carrier protein. In view of the existence of such an exceptional H-2b restriction in the response to sporozoite synthetic peptides in mice, the triggering of peptide-specific T cell responses in humans receiving sporozoite malaria vaccines might be difficult to achieve.

Traitement du décollement de rétine du pseudophaque: étude rétrospective comparant la vitrectomie sans indentation au traitement ab-externo [Vitrectomy without scleral buckle versus ab-externo approach for pseudophakic retinal detachment: comparative retrospective study].

PURPOSE: Retinal detachment (RD) is a major complication of cataract surgery, which can be treated by either primary vitrectomy without indentation or the scleral buckling procedure. The aim of this study is to compare the results of these two techniques for the treatment of pseudophakic RD. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The charts of 40 patients (40 eyes) treated with scleral buckling for a primary pseudophakic RD were retrospectively studied and compared to the charts of 32 patients (32 eyes) treated with primary vitrectomy without scleral buckle during the same period by the same surgeons. To obtain comparable samples, patients with giant retinal tears, vitreous hemorrhage, and severe preoperative proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR) were not included. Minimal follow-up was 6 months. RESULTS: The primary success rate was 84% in the vitrectomy group and 82.5% in the ab-externo group. Final anatomical success was observed in 100% of cases in the vitrectomy group and in 95% of cases in the ab-externo group. Final visual acuity was 0.5 or better in 44% of cases in the vitrectomy group and 37.5% in the ab-externo group. The duration of the surgery was significantly lower in the ab-externo group, whereas the hospital stay tended to be lower in the vitrectomy group. In the vitrectomy group, postoperative PVR developed in 3 eyes and new or undetected breaks were responsible for failure of the initial procedure in 2 eyes. CONCLUSION: Primary vitrectomy appears to be as effective as scleral buckling procedures for the treatment of pseudophakic RD.

Phase-I/II radio-immunotherapy study with Iodine-131-labeled anti-CEA monoclonal antibody F6 F(ab')2 in patients with non-resectable liver metastases from colorectal cancer.

Experimental studies in nude mice with human colon-carcinoma grafts demonstrated the therapeutic efficiency of F(ab')2 fragments to carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) labeled with a high dose of 131Iodine. A phase I/II study was designed to determine the maximum tolerated dose of 131I-labeled F(ab')2 fragments (131I-F(ab')2) from anti-CEA monoclonal antibody F6, its limiting organ toxicity and tumor uptake. Ten patients with non-resectable liver metastases from colorectal cancer (9 detected by CT scan and 1 by laparotomy) were treated with 131I-F(ab')2, doses ranging from 87 mCi to 300 mCi for the first 5 patients, with a constant 300-mCi dose for the last 5 patients. For all the patients, autologous bone marrow was harvested and stored before treatment. Circulating CEA ranged from 2 to 126 ng/ml. No severe adverse events were observed during or immediately following infusion of therapeutic doses. The 9 patients with radiologic evidence of liver metastases showed uptake of 131I-F(ab')2 in the metastases, as observed by single-photon-emission tomography. The only toxicity was hematologic, and no severe aplasia was observed when up to 250 mCi was infused. At the 300-mCi dose, 5 out of 6 patients presented grade-3 or -4 hematologic toxicity, with a nadir for neutrophils and thrombocytes ranging from 25 to 35 days after infusion. In these 5 cases, bone marrow was re-infused. No clinical complications were observed during aplasia. The tumor response could be evaluated in 9 out of 10 patients. One patient showed a partial response of one small liver metastasis (2 cm in diameter) and a stable evolution of the other metastases, 2 patients had stable disease, and 6 showed tumor progression at the time of evaluation (2 or 3 months after injection) by CT scan. This phase-I/II study demonstrated that a dose of 300 mCi of 131I-F(ab')2 from the anti-CEA Mab F6 is well tolerated with bone-marrow rescue, whereas a dose of 200 mCi can be infused without severe bone-marrow toxicity.

Adjuvant radioimmunotherapy trial with iodine-131-labeled anti-carcinoembryonic antigen monoclonal antibody F6 F(ab')2 after resection of liver metastases from colorectal cancer.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the feasibility of radioimmunotherapy (RIT) with radiolabeled anti-carcinoembryonic antigen antibodies after complete resection of liver metastases (LM) from colorectal cancer. Patients and Methods: Twenty-two patients planned for surgery of one to four LM received a preoperative diagnostic dose of a 131I-F(ab')2-labeled anti-carcinoembryonic antigen monoclonal antibody F6 (8-10 mCi/5 mg). 131I-F(ab')2 uptake was analyzed using direct radioactivity counting, and tumor-to-normal liver ratios were recorded. Ten patients with tumor-to-normal liver ratios of >5 and three others were treated with a therapeutic injection [180-200 mCi 131I/50 mg F(ab')2] 30 to 64 days after surgery. RESULTS: Median 131I-F(ab')2 immunoreactivity in patient serum remained at 91% of initial values for up to 96 hours after injection. The main and dose-limiting-toxicity was hematologic, with 92% and 85% grades 3 to 4 neutropenia and thrombocytopenia, respectively. Complete spontaneous recovery occurred in all patients. No human anti-mouse antibody response was observed after the diagnosis dose; however, 10 of the 13 treated patients developed human anti-mouse antibody approximately 3 months later. Two treated patients presented extrahepatic metastases at the time of RIT (one bone and one abdominal node) and two relapsed within 3 months of RIT (one in the lung and the other in the liver). Two patients are still alive, and one of these is disease-free at 93 months after resection. At a median follow-up of 127 months, the median disease-free survival is 12 months and the median overall survival is 50 months. CONCLUSION: RIT is feasible in an adjuvant setting after complete resection of LM from colorectal cancer and should be considered for future trials, possibly in combination with chemotherapy, because of the generally poor prognosis of these patients.

Use of nicotine substitute prescribed at hourly plus ab libitum intake or ad libitum for heavy smokers willing to quit: a randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of instructional guidance in the regular use of use nicotine nasal spray (NNS) on the true use of NNS during the first three weeks of smoking cessation for heavy smokers who are willing to quit. METHODS: This randomized, open, controlled trial included 50 patients who were heavy smokers, were willing to quit, and attending an academic outpatient clinic in Western Switzerland. Patients were randomised to instruction on NNS use as "ad libitum" (administration whenever cravings appear; control group) or to use NNS when craving appears and at least every hour when awake (intervention group). Intakes were monitored using an electronic device fixed in the spray unit (MDILog) during the first three weeks of use. Self reported abstinence from smoking at six months was confirmed by expired-air carbon monoxide. Using intention-to-treat analysis, random-effect GLS regression was used to calculate the mean difference of daily doses between groups controlling for lack of independence between measures from the same individual. RESULTS: One patient was lost to follow-up. At baseline randomization, the group receiving instruction to use NNS hourly included more women, patients with previous desires to quit, and patients with more psychiatric comorbidities and less somatic complaints compared to the group instructed to use NNS with cravings (group imbalance). Both groups self-administered more than the daily recommended dosage of 8 uses. Mean daily usage was 13.6 dose/day and 11.1 dose/day for the group instructed to use NNS hourly and with cravings, respectively. Adjusting for baseline imbalance, the increased daily doses in the intervention group (hourly use) remained nonsignificant compared to ad libitum use (-0.5 dose/day; CI 95% -6.2; 5.3, from day 1 to day 7; and 2.3 dose/day; CI 95% -5.4; 10.0, from day 8 to day 21). Instructing patients to use the NNS daily had no effect on smoking cessation at six months (RR = 0.69; CI 95% 0.34; 1.39). CONCLUSION: Heavy smokers willing to quit use NNS frequently, regardless of the instructions given. Recommending the use of NNS only when craving appears for heavy smokers willing to quit seems acceptable compared to prescribing hourly administration. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00861276.

Calculation of correction factors for ionization chamber measurements with small fields in low-density media.

The quantity of interest for high-energy photon beam therapy recommended by most dosimetric protocols is the absorbed dose to water. Thus, ionization chambers are calibrated in absorbed dose to water, which is the same quantity as what is calculated by most treatment planning systems (TPS). However, when measurements are performed in a low-density medium, the presence of the ionization chamber generates a perturbation at the level of the secondary particle range. Therefore, the measured quantity is close to the absorbed dose to a volume of water equivalent to the chamber volume. This quantity is not equivalent to the dose calculated by a TPS, which is the absorbed dose to an infinitesimally small volume of water. This phenomenon can lead to an overestimation of the absorbed dose measured with an ionization chamber of up to 40% in extreme cases. In this paper, we propose a method to calculate correction factors based on the Monte Carlo simulations. These correction factors are obtained by the ratio of the absorbed dose to water in a low-density medium □D(w,Q,V1)(low) averaged over a scoring volume V₁ for a geometry where V₁ is filled with the low-density medium and the absorbed dose to water □D(w,QV2)(low) averaged over a volume V₂ for a geometry where V₂ is filled with water. In the Monte Carlo simulations, □D(w,QV2)(low) is obtained by replacing the volume of the ionization chamber by an equivalent volume of water, according to the definition of the absorbed dose to water. The method is validated in two different configurations which allowed us to study the behavior of this correction factor as a function of depth in phantom, photon beam energy, phantom density and field size.