ABCtoolbox: a versatile toolkit for approximate Bayesian computations.

BACKGROUND: The estimation of demographic parameters from genetic data often requires the computation of likelihoods. However, the likelihood function is computationally intractable for many realistic evolutionary models, and the use of Bayesian inference has therefore been limited to very simple models. The situation changed recently with the advent of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithms allowing one to obtain parameter posterior distributions based on simulations not requiring likelihood computations. RESULTS: Here we present ABCtoolbox, a series of open source programs to perform Approximate Bayesian Computations (ABC). It implements various ABC algorithms including rejection sampling, MCMC without likelihood, a Particle-based sampler and ABC-GLM. ABCtoolbox is bundled with, but not limited to, a program that allows parameter inference in a population genetics context and the simultaneous use of different types of markers with different ploidy levels. In addition, ABCtoolbox can also interact with most simulation and summary statistics computation programs. The usability of the ABCtoolbox is demonstrated by inferring the evolutionary history of two evolutionary lineages of Microtus arvalis. Using nuclear microsatellites and mitochondrial sequence data in the same estimation procedure enabled us to infer sex-specific population sizes and migration rates and to find that males show smaller population sizes but much higher levels of migration than females. CONCLUSION: ABCtoolbox allows a user to perform all the necessary steps of a full ABC analysis, from parameter sampling from prior distributions, data simulations, computation of summary statistics, estimation of posterior distributions, model choice, validation of the estimation procedure, and visualization of the results.

Role of AP-1 family members in lymphomagenesis

Constitutive activation of the nuclear factor-KB (NF-KB) transcriptional pathway is the main characteristic of the activated B-cell-like (ABC) subtype of diffuse large B- cell lymphoma (DLBCL). This has been attributed to oncogenic mutations in the CARMA1, CD79A/B, MyD88 or RNF31 signaling proteins, which control NF-kB activation at different levels. Since several of these mutations lead to a state that mimics chronically antigen receptor-stimulated B-cells, and since the antigen receptor also triggers other transcription pathways, these might be important in ABC DLBCL malignancy too. In this study we analyzed whether abnormal expression and activity of members of the AP-1 transcription factor family could contribute to the pathogenesis of ABC DLBCL. Here, we identified activation of Jun as well as ATF members of the dimeric AP-1 transcription factor family, as a hallmark of ABC but not of germinal center B- cell-like (GCB) DLBCL cell lines. ABC DLBCL cell lines harbored an upregulated expression of c-Jun, JunB, JunD and ATF3 proteins. We could show that the upregulation of c-Jun, JunB and ATF3 was dependent on constitutive BCR and MyD88 signaling. Since AP-1 transcription factors need to dimerize to be active, Jun binding partners were investigated and we could demonstrate the presence of several ATF/Jun heterodimers (including c-Jun/ATF2, c-Jun/ATF3, c-Jun/ATF7, JunB/ATF2, JunB/ATF3, JunB/ATF7, JunD/ATF2, JunD/ATF3 and JunD/ATF7 heterodimers). The disruption of ATF/Jun heterodimers by A-Fos, a dominant negative form of Jun members, was toxic to ABC but not to GCB DLBCL cell lines. Finally, ATF3 immunohistochemistry on DLBCL patient samples revealed that samples classified as non-GCB had more intense and preferentially nuclear staining of ATF3, which could be of diagnostic relevance since the histological classification of the ABC and GCB DLBCL subtypes is difficult in clinical practice. In conclusion, we could show that ABC DLBCL are not only addicted to NF-KB signaling, but also to signaling by some members of the AP-1 transcription factor family. Thus, the AP-1 pathway might be a promising therapeutic target for the treatment of ABC DLBCL. Additionally, monitoring ATF3 levels could improve the diagnosis of ABC DLBCL by IHC. -- L'activation constitutive du facteur de transcription NF-KB est l'une des caractéristiques principales des lymphomes B du type ABC-DLBCL. Cette addiction est dépendante de mutations oncogéniques de CARMA1, CD79A/B, MyD88 et RNF31 qui contrôlent NF-KB à différents niveaux. Etant donné que la plupart de ces mutations mène à un état d'activation chronique du récepteur des cellules B (BCR) et que le BCR active d'autres voies de signalisation, d'autres facteurs de transcription pourraient être impliqués dans la lymphomagénèse des ABC-DLBCL. Dans cette étude, nous nous sommes demandé si les membres de la famille du facteur de transcription AP-1 contribuaient à la pathogénèse de ce type de lymphome. Dans des lignées cellulaires de lymphomes du type ABC-DLBCL en comparaison avec le type GCB-DLBCL, nous avons pu identifier une activation anormale de plusieurs membres de la famille Jun et ATF, deux sous-familles du facteur de transcription AP-1. Les lignées cellulaires dérivées de lymphomes du type ABC-DLBCL surexpriment les facteurs de transcription c-Jun, JunB, JunD et ATF3. Leur surexpression dépend de l'activation constitutive de la voie du BCR et de MyD88. Etant donné qu'AP-1 requiert la formation de dimères pour être actif, nous nous sommes intéressés aux partenaires d'interactions de c-Jun, JunB et JunD et avons pu montrer la formation de plusieurs hétérodimères Jun/ATF (incluant les hétérodimères c-Jun/ATF2, c-Jun/ATF3, c-Jun/ATF7, JunB/ATF2, JunB/ATF3, JunB/ATF7, JunD/ATF2, JunD/ATF3 et JunD/ATF7). Lorsque l'on empêche la formation de ces hétérodimères avec A-Fos, un dominant négatif des membres Jun, la survie des lignées cellulaires du type ABC-DLBCL est diminuée, tandis que les lignées cellulaires GCB-DLBCL ne sont pas affectées. Pour finir, des immunohistochimies (IHC) pour ATF3 sur des échantillons de patients classifiés comme GCB et non-GCB ont pu montrer une coloration d'ATF3 nucléaire et beaucoup plus intense que les échantillons du type GCB. Ainsi, ATF3 pourrait être potentiellement utile en clinique pour différencier le sous type non-GCB des GCB. En conclusion, nous avons pu montrer que les lymphomes du type ABC- DLBCL ne présentent pas uniquement une addiction à NF-KB, mais également de certains membres de la famille de facteur de transcription AP-1. Par conséquent, AP- 1 pourrait être une cible thérapeutique prometteuse pour le développement de futures stratégies. En outre, la détermination des niveaux d'ATF3 par IHC pourraient améliorer le diagnostic des patients du type ABC DLBCL.

Subclinical hypothyroidism and functional mobility in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Health risks associated with subclinical hypothyroidism in older adults are unclear. Our objective was to compare the functional mobility of people aged 70 to 79 years by thyroid function categorized by thyrotropin (TSH) level as euthyroid (>or=0.4 to <4.5 mIU/L), mild subclinical hypothyroid (>or=4.5 to <7.0 mIU/L), or moderate subclinical hypothyroid (>or=7.0 to <or=20.0 mIU/L with a normal free thyroxine level) cross-sectionally and over 2 years. METHODS: A total of 2290 community-dwelling residents participating in the year 2 clinic visit (July 1998-June 1999) of the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study, who had measured TSH level, had the capacity to walk 20 m unaided, and were not taking thyroid medication or had TSH levels consistent with hyperthyroidism or hypothyroidism. Main outcome measures included self-reported and performance-based measures of mobility (usual and rapid gait speed and endurance walking ability) assessed at study baseline (year 2) and 2 years later. RESULTS: In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, the mild subclinical hypothyroid group (vs the euthyroid group) demonstrated better mobility (faster mean usual and rapid gait speed [1.20 vs 1.15 m/s and 1.65 vs 1.56 m/s, respectively; P < .001] and had a higher percentage of those with good cardiorespiratory fitness and reported walking ease [39.2% vs 28.0% and 44.7% vs 36.5%, respectively; P < .001]). After 2 years, persons with mild subclinical hypothyroidism experienced a similar decline as the euthyroid group but maintained their mobility advantage. Persons with moderate subclinical hypothyroidism had similar mobility and mobility decline as the euthyroid group. CONCLUSION: Generally, well-functioning 70- to 79-year-old individuals with subclinical hypothyroidism do not demonstrate increased risk of mobility problems, and those with mild elevations in TSH level show a slight functional advantage.

What can we learn from international comparisons of costs by DRG ?

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to compare costs data by diagnosis related group (DRG) between Belgium and Switzerland. Our hypotheses were that differences between countries can probably be explained by methodological differences in cost calculations, by differences in medical practices and by differences in cost structures within the two countries. METHODS: Classifications of DRG used in the two countries differ (AP-DRGs version 1.7 in Switzerland and APR-DRGs version 15.0 in Belgium). The first step of this study was to transform Belgian summaries into Swiss AP-DRGs. Belgian and Swiss data were calculated with a clinical costing methodology (full costing). Belgian and Swiss costs were converted into US$ PPP (purchasing power parity) in order to neutralize differences in purchasing power between countries. RESULTS: The results of this study showed higher costs in Switzerland despite standardization of cost data according to PPP. The difference is not explained by the case-mix index because this was similar for inliers between the two countries. The length of stay (LOS) was also quite similar for inliers between the two countries. The case-mix index was, however, higher for high outliers in Belgium, as reflected in a higher LOS for these patients. Higher costs in Switzerland are thus probably explained mainly by the higher number of agency staff by service in this country or because of differences in medical practices. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to make international comparisons but only if there is standardization of the case-mix between countries and only if comparable accountancy methodologies are used. Harmonization of DRGs groups, nomenclature and accountancy is thus required.

MCL1 is deregulated in subgroups of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

Myeloid cell leukemia-1 (MCL1) is an anti-apoptotic member of the BCL2 family that is deregulated in various solid and hematological malignancies. However, its role in the molecular pathogenesis of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is unclear. We analyzed gene expression profiling data from 350 DLBCL patient samples and detected that activated B-cell-like (ABC) DLBCLs express MCL1 at significantly higher levels compared with germinal center B-cell-like DLBCL patient samples (P=2.7 × 10(-10)). Immunohistochemistry confirmed high MCL1 protein expression predominantly in ABC DLBCL in an independent patient cohort (n=249; P=0.001). To elucidate molecular mechanisms leading to aberrant MCL1 expression, we analyzed array comparative genomic hybridization data of 203 DLBCL samples and identified recurrent chromosomal gains/amplifications of the MCL1 locus that occurred in 26% of ABC DLBCLs. In addition, aberrant STAT3 signaling contributed to high MCL1 expression in this subtype. Knockdown of MCL1 as well as treatment with the BH3-mimetic obatoclax induced apoptotic cell death in MCL1-positive DLBCL cell lines. In summary, MCL1 is deregulated in a significant fraction of ABC DLBCLs and contributes to therapy resistance. These data suggest that specific inhibition of MCL1 might be utilized therapeutically in a subset of DLBCLs.

Performance Analysis of Two Quantum Reaction Dynamics Codes: Time-Dependent and Time-Independent Strategies

The computer simulation of reaction dynamics has nowadays reached a remarkable degree of accuracy. Triatomic elementary reactions are rigorously studied with great detail on a straightforward basis using a considerable variety of Quantum Dynamics computational tools available to the scientific community. In our contribution we compare the performance of two quantum scattering codes in the computation of reaction cross sections of a triatomic benchmark reaction such as the gas phase reaction Ne + H2+ %12. NeH++ H. The computational codes are selected as representative of time-dependent (Real Wave Packet [ ]) and time-independent (ABC [ ]) methodologies. The main conclusion to be drawn from our study is that both strategies are, to a great extent, not competing but rather complementary. While time-dependent calculations advantages with respect to the energy range that can be covered in a single simulation, time-independent approaches offer much more detailed information from each single energy calculation. Further details such as the calculation of reactivity at very low collision energies or the computational effort related to account for the Coriolis couplings are analyzed in this paper.

The fallacy of slimming products: a case analysis in Switzerland

Introduction: Many people desire to lose weight. This favors the marketing of "miracle" products with overemphasized slimming capacities. To our knowledge, no study regarding the claimed performances of slimming products has ever been conducted in Switzerland. Objectives: To assess weight loss claims of slimming products available in Switzerland by analyzing their corresponding advertisements. Methods: Between May 2008 and February 2013, 31 advertisements for 13 different slimming products from a single producer were collected. Weight loss claims and text of the advertisement were analyzed. Results: Weight loss claims ranged between 7 and 31 kg, with an estimated daily weight loss ranging between 300 g and 1 kg. 84% of the advertisements targeted women (by including the photograph of a woman), 61% showed a picture of a person before and after using the product, and 51% claimed that the product had improved marital relationships. The terms "natural", "miracle/extraordinary" and "scientific" were present in 92%, 77%, and 31% of the products, respectively. Free gifts were provided to buyers for 69% of the products. Cost was very similar for all 13 products (range: 49 to 59 CHF, with 8 products costing the same amount) and no correlation was found between cost of the product and weight loss claims. No differences were found for weight loss claims according to presence or absence of a picture or of the terms ".natural", ".miracle/extraordinary" and ".scientific" Finally, the yearly costs for advertising such products (French-speaking Switzerland) ranged between 56,000 and 126,000 CHF, suggesting that the gains obtained were higher than this value. Conclusion: In Switzerland, advertisements for slimming products use positive and reassuring terms to attract consumers, which are lured by unreachable, false promises of rapid and easy weight loss. Taking into account the costs of advertising, the gains obtained appear to be significant. Legislation on advertising of such products is urgently needed.

Lentiviral vector-mediated gene transfer in adult mouse photoreceptors is impaired by the presence of a physical barrier

RESUME L'utilisation de la thérapie génique dans l'approche d'un traitement des maladies oculaires dégénératives, plus particulièrement de la rétinite pigmentaire, semble être très prometteuse (Acland et al. 2001). Parmi les vecteurs développés, les vecteurs lentiviraux (dérivé du virus humain HIV-1), permettent la transduction des photorécepteurs après injection sous-rétinienne chez la souris durant les premiers jours de vie. Cependant l'efficacité du transfert de gène est nettement plus limitée dans ce type cellulaire après injection chez l'adulte (Kostic et al. 2003). L'objet de notre étude est de déterminer si la présence d'une barrière physique produite au cours du développement, située entre les photorécepteurs et l'épithélium pigmentaire ainsi qu'entre les photorécepteurs eux-mêmes, est responsable de: la diminution de l'entrée en masse du virus dans les photorécepteurs, minimisant ainsi son efficacité chez la souris adulte. De précédentes recherches, chez le lapin, ont décrit la capacité d'enzymes spécifiques comme la Chondroïtinase ABC et la Neuraminidase X de modifier la structure de la matrice entourant les photorécepteurs (Inter Photoreceptor Matrix, IPM) par digestion de certains de ses constituants suite à leur injection dans l'espace sous-rétinien (Yao et al. 1990). Considérant l'IPM comme une barrière physique, capable de réduire l'efficacité de transduction des photorécepteurs chez la souris adulte, nous avons associé différentes enzymes simultanément à l'injection sous-rétinienne de vecteurs lentiviraux afin d'améliorer la transduction virale en fragilisant I'IPM, la rendant ainsi plus perméable à la diffusion du virus. L'injection sous-rétinienne de Neuraminidase X et de Chondroïtinase ABC chez la souris induit des modifications structurales de l'IPM qui se manifestent respectivement par la révélation ou la disparition de sites de liaison de la peanut agglutinin sur les photorécepteurs. L'injection simultanée de Neuraminidase X avec le vecteur viral contenant le transgène thérapeutique augmente significativement le nombre de photorécepteurs transduits (environ cinq fois). Nous avons en fait démontré que le traitement enzymatique augmente principalement la diffusion du lentivirus dans l'espace situé entre l'épithélium pigmentaire et les photorécepteurs. Le traitement à la Chondroïtinase ABC n'entraîne quant à elle qu'une légère amélioration non significative de la transduction. Cette étude montre qu'une meilleure connaissance de l'IPM ainsi que des substances capables de la modifier (enzymes, drogues etc.) pourrait aider à élaborer de nouvelles stratégies afin d'améliorer la distribution de vecteurs viraux dans la rétine adulte.

Metabolic syndrome and the risk of cardiovascular disease in older adults.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to assess whether metabolic syndrome (MetSyn) predicts a higher risk for cardiovascular events in older adults. BACKGROUND: The importance of MetSyn as a risk factor has not previously focused on older adults and deserves further study. METHODS: We studied the impact of MetSyn (38% prevalence) on outcomes in 3,035 participants in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) study (51% women, 42% black, ages 70 to 79 years). RESULTS: During a 6-year follow-up, there were 434 deaths overall, 472 coronary events (CE), 213 myocardial infarctions (MI), and 231 heart failure (HF) hospital stays; 59% of the subjects had at least one hospital stay. Coronary events, MI, HF, and overall hospital stays occurred significantly more in subjects with MetSyn (19.9% vs. 12.9% for CE, 9.1% vs. 5.7% for MI, 10.0% vs. 6.1% for HF, and 63.1% vs. 56.1% for overall hospital stay; all p < 0.001). No significant differences in overall mortality was seen; however, there was a trend toward higher cardiovascular mortality (5.1% vs. 3.8%, p = 0.067) and coronary mortality (4.5% vs. 3.2%, p = 0.051) in patients with MetSyn. After adjusting for baseline characteristics, patients with MetSyn were at a significantly higher risk for CE (hazard ratio [HR] 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28 to 1.91), MI (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.12 to 2.05), and HF hospital stay (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.00). Women and whites with MetSyn had a higher coronary mortality rate. The CE rate was higher among subjects with diabetes and with MetSyn; those with both had the highest risk. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, subjects over 70 years are at high risk for cardiovascular events; MetSyn in this group is associated with a significantly greater risk.

Doxorubicin induces drug efflux pumps in Candida albicans.

Candida albicans is one of the most important opportunistic fungal pathogens. It can cause serious fungal diseases in immunocompromised patients, including those with cancer. Treatment failures due to the emergence of drug-resistant C. albicans strains have become a serious clinical problem. Resistance incidents were often mediated by fungal efflux pumps which are closely related to the human ABC transporter P-glycoprotein (P-gp). P-gp is often overexpressed in cancer cells and confers resistance to many cytotoxic drugs. We examined whether cytotoxic drugs commonly used for cancer treatment (doxorubicin and cyclophosphamide) could alter the expression of genes responsible for the development of fluconazole resistance in Candida cells in the way they can influence homologous genes in cancer cell lines. ABC transporters (CDR1 and CDR2) and other resistance genes (MDR1 and ERG11) were tested by real-time PCR for their expression in C. albicans cells at the mRNA level after induction by antineoplastic drugs. The results were confirmed by a lacZ gene reporter system and verified at the protein level using GFP and immunoblotting. We showed that doxorubicin is a potent inducer of CDR1/CDR2 expression in C. albicans at both the mRNA and protein level and thus causes an increase in fluconazole MIC values. However, cyclophosphamide, which is not a substrate of human P-gp, did not induce ABC transporter expression in C. albicans. Neither doxorubicin nor cyclophosphamide could influence the expression of the other resistance genes (MDR1 and ERG11). The induction of CDR1/CDR2 by doxorubicin in C. albicans and the resulting alteration of antifungal susceptibility might be of clinical relevance for the antifungal treatment of Candida infections occurring after anticancer chemotherapy with doxorubicin.

Integrating life cycle costs and environmental impacts of composite rail car-bodies for a Korean train

Background, aim, and scope A coupled Life Cycle Costing and life cycle assessment has been performed for car-bodies of the Korean Tilting Train eXpress (TTX) project using European and Korean databases, with the objective of assessing environmental and cost performance to aid materials and process selection. More specifically, the potential of polymer composite car-body structures for the Korean Tilting Train eXpress (TTX) has been investigated. Materials and methods This assessment includes the cost of both carriage manufacturing and use phases, coupled with the life cycle environmental impacts of all stages from raw material production, through carriage manufacture and use, to end-of-life scenarios. Metallic carriages were compared with two composite options: hybrid steel-composite and full-composite carriages. The total planned production for this regional Korean train was 440 cars, with an annual production volume of 80 cars. Results and discussion The coupled analyses were used to generate plots of cost versus energy consumption and environmental impacts. The results show that the raw material and manufacturing phase costs are approximately half of the total life cycle costs, whilst their environmental impact is relatively insignificant (3-8%). The use phase of the car-body has the largest environmental impact for all scenarios, with near negligible contributions from the other phases. Since steel rail carriages weigh more (27-51%), the use phase cost is correspondingly higher, resulting in both the greatest environmental impact and the highest life cycle cost. Compared to the steel scenario, the hybrid composite variant has a lower life cycle cost (16%) and a lower environmental impact (26%). Though the full composite rail carriage may have the highest manufacturing cost, it results in the lowest total life cycle costs and lowest environmental impacts. Conclusions and recommendations This coupled cost and life cycle assessment showed that the full composite variant was the optimum solution. This case study showed that coupling of technical cost models with life cycle assessment offers an efficient route to accurately evaluate economic and environmental performance in a consistent way.

Inferring the mode of origin of polyploid species from next-generation sequence data.

Many eukaryote organisms are polyploid. However, despite their importance, evolutionary inference of polyploid origins and modes of inheritance has been limited by a need for analyses of allele segregation at multiple loci using crosses. The increasing availability of sequence data for nonmodel species now allows the application of established approaches for the analysis of genomic data in polyploids. Here, we ask whether approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), applied to realistic traditional and next-generation sequence data, allows correct inference of the evolutionary and demographic history of polyploids. Using simulations, we evaluate the robustness of evolutionary inference by ABC for tetraploid species as a function of the number of individuals and loci sampled, and the presence or absence of an outgroup. We find that ABC adequately retrieves the recent evolutionary history of polyploid species on the basis of both old and new sequencing technologies. The application of ABC to sequence data from diploid and polyploid species of the plant genus Capsella confirms its utility. Our analysis strongly supports an allopolyploid origin of C. bursa-pastoris about 80 000 years ago. This conclusion runs contrary to previous findings based on the same data set but using an alternative approach and is in agreement with recent findings based on whole-genome sequencing. Our results indicate that ABC is a promising and powerful method for revealing the evolution of polyploid species, without the need to attribute alleles to a homeologous chromosome pair. The approach can readily be extended to more complex scenarios involving higher ploidy levels.

Wheat alleles introgress into selfing wild relatives: empirical estimates from approximate Bayesian computation in Aegilops triuncialis.

Extensive gene flow between wheat (Triticum sp.) and several wild relatives of the genus Aegilops has recently been detected despite notoriously high levels of selfing in these species. Here, we assess and model the spread of wheat alleles into natural populations of the barbed goatgrass (Aegilops triuncialis), a wild wheat relative prevailing in the Mediterranean flora. Our sampling, based on an extensive survey of 31 Ae. triuncialis populations collected along a 60 km × 20 km area in southern Spain (Grazalema Mountain chain, Andalousia, totalling 458 specimens), is completed with 33 wheat cultivars representative of the European domesticated pool. All specimens were genotyped with amplified fragment length polymorphism with the aim of estimating wheat admixture levels in Ae. triuncialis populations. This survey first confirmed extensive hybridization and backcrossing of wheat into the wild species. We then used explicit modelling of populations and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate the selfing rate of Ae. triuncialis along with the magnitude, the tempo and the geographical distance over which wheat alleles introgress into Ae. triuncialis populations. These simulations confirmed that extensive introgression of wheat alleles (2.7 × 10(-4) wheat immigrants for each Ae. triuncialis resident, at each generation) into Ae. triuncialis occurs despite a high selfing rate (Fis ≈ 1 and selfing rate = 97%). These results are discussed in the light of risks associated with the release of genetically modified wheat cultivars in Mediterranean agrosystems.

Association of electrocardiogram abnormalities and incident heart failure events.

Unless effective preventive strategies are implemented, aging of the population will result in a significant worsening of the heart failure (HF) epidemic. Few data exist on whether baseline electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities can refine risk prediction for HF. METHODS: We examined a prospective cohort of 2,915 participants aged 70 to 79 years without preexisting HF, enrolled between April 1997 and June 1998 in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) study. Minnesota Code was used to define major and minor ECG abnormalities at baseline and at year 4 follow-up. Using Cox models, we assessed (1) the association between ECG abnormalities and incident HF and (2) the incremental value of adding ECG to the Health ABC HF Risk Score using the net reclassification index. RESULTS: At baseline, 380 participants (13.0%) had minor, and 620 (21.3%) had major ECG abnormalities. During a median follow-up of 11.4 years, 485 participants (16.6%) developed incident HF. After adjusting for the Health ABC HF Risk Score variables, the hazard ratio (HR) was 1.27 (95% CI 0.96-1.68) for minor and 1.99 (95% CI 1.61-2.44) for major ECG abnormalities. At year 4, 263 participants developed new and 549 had persistent abnormalities; both were associated with increased subsequent HF risk (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.38-2.72 for new and HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.82-3.02 for persistent ECG abnormalities). Baseline ECG correctly reclassified 10.5% of patients with HF events, 0.8% of those without HF events, and 1.4% of the overall population. The net reclassification index across the Health ABC HF risk categories was 0.11 (95% CI 0.03-0.19). CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults, baseline and new ECG abnormalities are independently associated with increased risk of HF. The contribution of ECG screening for targeted prevention of HF should be evaluated in clinical trials.