900 resultados para ABC Pool
Resumo:
Objective: Menopause is the consequence of exhaustion of the ovarian follicular pool. AMH, an indirect hormonal marker of ovarian reserve, has been recently proposed as a predictor for age at menopause. Since BMI and smoking status are relevant independent factors associated with age at menopause we evaluated whether a model including all three of these variables could improve AMH-based prediction of age at menopause. Methods: In the present cohort study, participants were 375 eumenorrheic women aged 19–44 years and a sample of 2,635 Italian menopausal women. AMH values were obtained from the eumenorrheic women. Results: Regression analysis of the AMH data showed that a quadratic function of age provided a good description of these data plotted on a logarithmic scale, with a distribution of residual deviates that was not normal but showed significant leftskewness. Under the hypothesis that menopause can be predicted by AMH dropping below a critical threshold, a model predicting menopausal age was constructed from the AMH regression model and applied to the data on menopause. With the AMH threshold dependent on the covariates BMI and smoking status, the effects of these covariates were shown to be highly significant. Conclusions: In the present study we confirmed the good level of conformity between the distributions of observed and AMH-predicted ages at menopause, and showed that using BMI and smoking status as additional variables improves AMH-based prediction of age at menopause.
Resumo:
Since the introduction of Medicare in 1984, the proportion of the Australian population with private health insurance has declined considerably. Insurance for health care consumption is compulsory for the public health sector but optional for the private health sector. In this paper, we explore a number of important issues in the demand for private health insurance in Australia. The socio-economic variables which influence demand are examined using a binary logic model. A number of simulations are performed to highlight the influence and relative importance of various characteristics such as age, income, health status and geographical location on demand. A number of important policy issues in the private health insurance market are highlighted. First, evidence is provided of adverse selection in the private health insurance pool, second, the notion of the wealthy uninsured is refuted, and finally it is confirmed that there are significant interstate differences in the demand for private health insurance.
Resumo:
Speaker diarization is the process of annotating an input audio with information that attributes temporal regions of the audio signal to their respective sources, which may include both speech and non-speech events. For speech regions, the diarization system also specifies the locations of speaker boundaries and assign relative speaker labels to each homogeneous segment of speech. In short, speaker diarization systems effectively answer the question of ‘who spoke when’. There are several important applications for speaker diarization technology, such as facilitating speaker indexing systems to allow users to directly access the relevant segments of interest within a given audio, and assisting with other downstream processes such as summarizing and parsing. When combined with automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems, the metadata extracted from a speaker diarization system can provide complementary information for ASR transcripts including the location of speaker turns and relative speaker segment labels, making the transcripts more readable. Speaker diarization output can also be used to localize the instances of specific speakers to pool data for model adaptation, which in turn boosts transcription accuracies. Speaker diarization therefore plays an important role as a preliminary step in automatic transcription of audio data. The aim of this work is to improve the usefulness and practicality of speaker diarization technology, through the reduction of diarization error rates. In particular, this research is focused on the segmentation and clustering stages within a diarization system. Although particular emphasis is placed on the broadcast news audio domain and systems developed throughout this work are also trained and tested on broadcast news data, the techniques proposed in this dissertation are also applicable to other domains including telephone conversations and meetings audio. Three main research themes were pursued: heuristic rules for speaker segmentation, modelling uncertainty in speaker model estimates, and modelling uncertainty in eigenvoice speaker modelling. The use of heuristic approaches for the speaker segmentation task was first investigated, with emphasis placed on minimizing missed boundary detections. A set of heuristic rules was proposed, to govern the detection and heuristic selection of candidate speaker segment boundaries. A second pass, using the same heuristic algorithm with a smaller window, was also proposed with the aim of improving detection of boundaries around short speaker segments. Compared to single threshold based methods, the proposed heuristic approach was shown to provide improved segmentation performance, leading to a reduction in the overall diarization error rate. Methods to model the uncertainty in speaker model estimates were developed, to address the difficulties associated with making segmentation and clustering decisions with limited data in the speaker segments. The Bayes factor, derived specifically for multivariate Gaussian speaker modelling, was introduced to account for the uncertainty of the speaker model estimates. The use of the Bayes factor also enabled the incorporation of prior information regarding the audio to aid segmentation and clustering decisions. The idea of modelling uncertainty in speaker model estimates was also extended to the eigenvoice speaker modelling framework for the speaker clustering task. Building on the application of Bayesian approaches to the speaker diarization problem, the proposed approach takes into account the uncertainty associated with the explicit estimation of the speaker factors. The proposed decision criteria, based on Bayesian theory, was shown to generally outperform their non- Bayesian counterparts.
Resumo:
Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is associated with substantial costs for health services, reduced quality of life, and functional outcomes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce the risk of SSI in hip arthroplasty in Australia. Methods: Baseline use of antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) was compared with no antibiotic prophylaxis (no AP), antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP þ ABC), and laminar air operating rooms (AP þ LOR). A Markov model was used to simulate long-term health and cost outcomes of a hypothetical cohort of 30,000 total hip arthroplasty patients from a health services perspective. Model parameters were informed by the best available evidence. Uncertainty was explored in probabilistic sensitivity and scenario analyses. Results: Stopping the routine use of AP resulted in over Australian dollars (AUD) $1.5 million extra costs and a loss of 163 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Using antibiotic cement in addition to AP (AP þ ABC)generated an extra 32 QALYs while saving over AUD $123,000. The use of laminar air operating rooms combined with routine AP (AP þ LOR) resulted in an AUD $4.59 million cost increase and 127 QALYs lost compared with the baseline comparator. Conclusion: Preventing deep SSI with antibiotic prophylaxis and antibiotic-impregnated cement has shown to improve health outcomes among hospitalized patients, save lives, and enhance resource allocation. Based on this evidence, the use of laminar air operating rooms is not recommended.
Resumo:
In this paper we present a new simulation methodology in order to obtain exact or approximate Bayesian inference for models for low-valued count time series data that have computationally demanding likelihood functions. The algorithm fits within the framework of particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) methods. The particle filter requires only model simulations and, in this regard, our approach has connections with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). However, an advantage of using the PMCMC approach in this setting is that simulated data can be matched with data observed one-at-a-time, rather than attempting to match on the full dataset simultaneously or on a low-dimensional non-sufficient summary statistic, which is common practice in ABC. For low-valued count time series data we find that it is often computationally feasible to match simulated data with observed data exactly. Our particle filter maintains $N$ particles by repeating the simulation until $N+1$ exact matches are obtained. Our algorithm creates an unbiased estimate of the likelihood, resulting in exact posterior inferences when included in an MCMC algorithm. In cases where exact matching is computationally prohibitive, a tolerance is introduced as per ABC. A novel aspect of our approach is that we introduce auxiliary variables into our particle filter so that partially observed and/or non-Markovian models can be accommodated. We demonstrate that Bayesian model choice problems can be easily handled in this framework.
Resumo:
Objective: To examine the effects of extremely cold and hot temperatures on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in five cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou) in China; and to examine the time relationships between cold and hot temperatures and IHD mortality for each city. Design: A negative binomial regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine city-specific temperature effects on IHD mortality up to 20 lag days. A meta-analysis was used to pool the cold effects and hot effects across the five cities. Patients: 16 559 IHD deaths were monitored by a sentinel surveillance system in five cities during 2004–2008. Results: The relationships between temperature and IHD mortality were non-linear in all five cities. The minimum-mortality temperatures in northern cities were lower than in southern cities. In Beijing, Tianjin and Guangzhou, the effects of extremely cold temperatures were delayed, while Shanghai and Wuhan had immediate cold effects. The effects of extremely hot temperatures appeared immediately in all the cities except Wuhan. Meta-analysis showed that IHD mortality increased 48% at the 1st percentile of temperature (extremely cold temperature) compared with the 10th percentile, while IHD mortality increased 18% at the 99th percentile of temperature (extremely hot temperature) compared with the 90th percentile. Conclusions: Results indicate that both extremely cold and hot temperatures increase IHD mortality in China. Each city has its characteristics of heat effects on IHD mortality. The policy for response to climate change should consider local climate–IHD mortality relationships.
Resumo:
Background: Many people will consult a medical practitioner about lower bowel symptoms, and the demand for access to general practitioners (GPs) is growing. We do not know if people recognise the symptoms of lower bowel cancer when advising others about the need to consult a doctor. A structured vignette survey was conducted in Western Australia. Method: Participants were recruited from the waiting rooms at five general practices. Respondents were invited to complete self-administered questionnaires containing nine vignettes chosen at random from a pool of 64 based on six clinical variables. Twenty-seven vignettes described high-risk bowel cancer scenarios. Respondents were asked if they would recommend a medical consultation for the case described and whether they believed the scenario was a cancer presentation. Logistic regression was used to estimate the independent effects of each variable on the respondent's judgement. Two-hundred and sixty-eight completed responses were collected over eight weeks. Results: The majority (61%) of respondents were female, aged 40 years and older. A history of rectal bleeding, six weeks of symptoms, and weight loss independently increased the odds of recommending a consultation with a medical practitioner by a factor of 7.64, 4.11 and 1.86, respectively. Most cases that were identified as cancer (75.2%) would not be classified as such on current research evidence. Factors that predict recognition of cancer presentations include rectal bleeding, weight loss and diarrhoea.
Resumo:
The contemporary working environment is being rapidly reshaped by technological, industrial and political forces. Increased global competitiveness and an emphasis on productivity have led to the appearance of alternative methods of employment, such as part-time, casual and itinerant work, allowing greater flexibility. This allows for the development of a core permanent staff and the simultaneous utilisation of casual staff according to business needs. Flexible workers across industries are generally referred to as the non-standard workforce and full-time permanent workers as the standard workforce. Even though labour flexibility favours the employer, increased opportunity for flexible work has been embraced by women for many reasons, including the gender struggle for greater economic independence and social equality. Consequently, the largely female nursing industry, both nationally and internationally, has been caught up in this wave of change. This ageing workforce has been at the forefront of the push for flexibility with recent figures showing almost half the nursing workforce is employed in non-standard capacity. In part, this has allowed women to fulfil caring roles outside their work, to ease off nearing retirement and to supplement the family income. More significantly, however, flexibility has developed as an economic management initiative, as a strategy for cost constraint. The result has been the development of a dual workforce and as suggested by Pocock, Buchanan and Campbell (2004), associated deep-seated resentment and the marginalisation of part-time and casual workers by their full-time colleagues and managers. Additionally, as nursing currently faces serious recruitment and retention problems there is urgent need to understand the factors which are underlying present discontent in the nursing profession. There is an identified gap in nursing knowledge surrounding the issues relating to recruitment and retention. Communication involves speaking, listening, reading and writing and is an interactive process which is central to the lives of humans. Workplace communication refers to human interaction, information technology, and multimedia and print. It is the means to relationship building between workers, management, and their external environment and is critical to organisational effectiveness. Communication and language are integral to nursing performance (Hall, 2005), in twenty-four hour service however increasing fragmentation due to part-time and casual work in the nursing industry means that effective communication management has become increasingly difficult. More broadly it is known that disruption to communication systems impacts negatively on consumer outcomes. Because of this gap in understanding how nurses view their contemporary nursing world, an interpretative ethnographic study which progressed to a critical ethnographic study, based on the conceptual framework of constructionism and interpretativism was used. The study site was a division within an acute health care facility, and the relationship between increasing casualisation of the nursing workforce and the experiences of communication of standard and non-standard nurses was explored. For this study, full-time standard nurses were those employed to work in a specific unit for forty hours per week. Non-standard nurses were those employed part-time in specific units or those nurses employed to work as relief pool nurses for shift short falls where needed. Nurses employed by external agencies, but required to fill in for shifts at the facility were excluded from this research. This study involved an analysis of observational, interview and focus group data of standard and non-standard nurses within this facility. Three analytical findings - the organisation of nursing work; constructing the casual nurse as other; and the function of space, situate communication within a broader discussion about non-standard work and organisational culture. The study results suggest that a significant culture of marginalisation exists for nurses who work in a non-standard capacity and that this affects communication for nurses and has implications for the quality of patient care. The discussion draws on the seven elements of marginalisation described by Hall, Stephen and Melius (1994). The arguments propose that these elements underpin a culture which supports remnants of the historically gendered stereotype "the good nurse" and these cultural values contribute to practices and behaviour which marginalise all nurses, particularly those who work less than full-time. Gender inequality is argued to be at the heart of marginalising practices because of long standing subordination of nurses by the powerful medical profession, paralleling historical subordination of women in society. This has denied nurses adequate representation and voice in decision making. The new knowledge emanating from this study extends current knowledge of factors surrounding recruitment and retention and as such contributes to an understanding of the current and complex nursing environment.
Resumo:
Current literature warns organisations about a global ageing phenomenon. Workplace ageing is causing a diminishing work pool which has consequences for a sustainable workforce in the future. This phenomenon continues to impact on local government councils in Australia. Australia has one of the world’s most rapidly ageing populations, and there is evidence that Australian local government councils are already resulting in an unsustainable workforce. Consequently, this research program investigated the role of older workers in the Queensland local government workplace in enabling them to extend their working lives towards transitional employment and a sustainable workforce in the future. Transitional Employment is intended as a strategy for enabling individuals to have greater control over their employment options and their employability during the period leading to their final exit from the workforce. There was no evidence of corporate support for older workers in Queensland local government councils other than tokenistic government campaigns encouraging organisations to "better value their older workers". (Queensland Government, 2007d, p.6). TE is investigated as a possible intervention for older workers in the future. The international and national literature review reflected a range of matters impacting on current older workers in the workforce and barriers preventing them from accessing services towards extending their employment beyond the traditional retirement age (60 years) as defined by the Australian Government; an age when individuals can access their superannuation. Learning and development services were identified as one of those barriers. There was little evidence of investment in or consistent approaches to supporting older workers by organisations. Learning and development services appeared at best to be ad hoc, reactive to corporate productivity and outputs with little recognition of the ageing phenomenon (OECD, 2006, p.23) and looming skills and labour shortages (ALGA, 2006, p. 19). Themes from the literature review led to the establishment of three key research questions: 1. What are the current local government workforce issues impacting on skills and labour retention? 2. What are perceptions about the current workplace environment? And, 3. What are the expectations about learning and development towards extending employability of older workers within the local government sector? The research questions were explored by utilising three qualitative empirical studies, using some numerical data for reporting and comparative analysis. Empirical Study One investigated common themes for accessing transitional employment and comprised two phases. A literature review and Study One data analysis enabled the construction of an initial Transitional Employment Model which includes most frequent themes. Empirical Study Two comprised focus groups to further consider those themes. This led to identification of issues impacting the most on access to learning and development by older workers and towards a revised TEM. Findings presented majority support for transitional employment as a strategy for supporting older workers to work beyond their traditional retirement age. Those findings are presented as significant issues impacting on access to transitional employment within the final 3-dimensionsal TEM. The model is intended as a guide for responding to an ageing workforce by local government councils in the future. This study argued for increased and improved corporate support, particularly for learning and development services for older workers. Such support will enable older workers to maintain their employability and extend their working lives; a sustainable workforce in the future.
Resumo:
The ABC’s 50-year TV partnership with the BBC is at breaking point after a landmark deal between the British broadcaster and pay TV provider Foxtel was announced in April 2013. Under the new deal Foxtel will host a new BBC channel that will screen first-run, “fast-tracked” British programming, meaning ABC viewers will no longer have free-to-air access to popular shows such as Silent Witness and The Thick of It. The deal between Foxtel and the BBC’s commercial arm, BBC Worldwide, has major implications not only for the two partners, but also for the ABC and potentially for Australian screen content.
Resumo:
Between 8 and 20 percent of depression in young men and women aged 18-23 is associated with pregnancy loss, according to a recent analysis of the 30 year Mater Hospital longitudinal study of mothers and children. Dr Kaeleen Dingle from the University of Queensland explains the study and discusses the implications for both men and women.
Resumo:
Classifier selection is a problem encountered by multi-biometric systems that aim to improve performance through fusion of decisions. A particular decision fusion architecture that combines multiple instances (n classifiers) and multiple samples (m attempts at each classifier) has been proposed in previous work to achieve controlled trade-off between false alarms and false rejects. Although analysis on text-dependent speaker verification has demonstrated better performance for fusion of decisions with favourable dependence compared to statistically independent decisions, the performance is not always optimal. Given a pool of instances, best performance with this architecture is obtained for certain combination of instances. Heuristic rules and diversity measures have been commonly used for classifier selection but it is shown that optimal performance is achieved for the `best combination performance' rule. As the search complexity for this rule increases exponentially with the addition of classifiers, a measure - the sequential error ratio (SER) - is proposed in this work that is specifically adapted to the characteristics of sequential fusion architecture. The proposed measure can be used to select a classifier that is most likely to produce a correct decision at each stage. Error rates for fusion of text-dependent HMM based speaker models using SER are compared with other classifier selection methodologies. SER is shown to achieve near optimal performance for sequential fusion of multiple instances with or without the use of multiple samples. The methodology applies to multiple speech utterances for telephone or internet based access control and to other systems such as multiple finger print and multiple handwriting sample based identity verification systems.
Resumo:
Purpose: We have evaluated the immunosuppressive properties of L-MSC with the view to using these cells in allogeneic cell therapies for corneal disorders. We hypothesized that L-MSC cultures would suppress T-cell activation, in a similar way to those established from human bone marrow (BM-MSC). Methods: MSC cultures were established from the limbal stroma of cadaveric donor eye tissue (up to 1 week postmortem) using either conventional serum-supplemented growth medium or a commercial serum-free medium optimized for bone marrow derived MSC (MesenCult-XF system). The MSC phenotype was examined by flow cytometry according to current and emerging markers for human MSC. Immunosuppressive properties were assessed using a mixed lymphocyte reaction (MLR) assay, whereby the white cell fraction from two immunologically incompatible blood donors are cultured together in direct contact with growth arrested MSC. T-cell activation (proliferation) was measured by uptake of tritiated thymidine. Human L-MSC were tested in parallel with human BM-MSC and rabbit L-MSC. Human and rabbit L-MSC were also tested for their ability to stimulate the growth of limbal epithelial (LE) cells in colony formation assays (for both human as well as rabbit LE cells). Results: L-MSC cultures were >95% negative for CD34, CD45 and HLA-DR and positive for CD73, CD90, CD105 and HLA-ABC. Modest levels (30%) of CD146 expression were observed for L-MSC cultures grown in serum-supplemented growth medium, but not those grown in MesenCult-XF. All MSC cultures derived from both human and rabbit tissue suppressed T-cell activation to varying degrees according to culture technique and species (MesenCult-XF >> serum-fed cultures, rabbit L-MSC >> human L-MSC). All L-MSC stimulated colony formation by LE cells irrespectively of the combination of cell species used. Conclusions: L-MSC display immunosuppressive qualities, in addition to their established non-immunogenic cell surface marker profile, and stimulate LE cell growth in vitro across species boundaries. These results support the potential use of allogeneic or even xenogeneic L-MSC in the treatment of corneal disorders.
Resumo:
Background aims Mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) cultivated from the corneal limbus (L-MSCs) provide a potential source of cells for corneal repair. In the present study, we investigated the immunosuppressive properties of human L-MSCs and putative rabbit L-MSCs to develop an allogeneic therapy and animal model of L-MSC transplantation. Methods MSC-like cultures were established from the limbal stroma of human and rabbit (New Zealand white) corneas using either serum-supplemented medium or a commercial serum-free MSC medium (MesenCult-XF Culture Kit; Stem Cell Technologies, Melbourne, Australia). L-MSC phenotype was examined by flow cytometry. The immunosuppressive properties of L-MSC cultures were assessed using mixed leukocyte reactions. L-MSC cultures were also tested for their ability to support colony formation by primary limbal epithelial (LE) cells. Results Human L-MSC cultures were typically CD34−, CD45− and HLA-DR− and CD73+, CD90+, CD105+ and HLA-ABC+. High levels (>80%) of CD146 expression were observed for L-MSC cultures grown in serum-supplemented medium but not cultures grown in MesenCult-XF (approximately 1%). Rabbit L-MSCs were approximately 95% positive for major histocompatibility complex class I and expressed lower levels of major histocompatibility complex class II (approximately 10%), CD45 (approximately 20%), CD105 (approximately 60%) and CD90 (<10%). Human L-MSCs and rabbit L-MSCs suppressed human T-cell proliferation by up to 75%. Conversely, L-MSCs from either species stimulated a 2-fold to 3-fold increase in LE cell colony formation. Conclusions L-MSCs display immunosuppressive qualities in addition to their established non-immunogenic profile and stimulate LE cell growth in vitro across species boundaries. These results support the potential use of allogeneic L-MSCs in the treatment of corneal disorders and suggest that the rabbit would provide a useful pre-clinical model.
Resumo:
Lean strategies have been developed to eliminate or reduce manufacturing waste and thus improve operational efficiency in manufacturing processes. However, implementing lean strategies requires a large amount of resources and, in practice, manufacturers encounter difficulties in selecting appropriate lean strategies within their resource constraints. There is currently no systematic methodology available for selecting appropriate lean strategies within a manufacturer's resource constraints. In the lean transformation process, it is also critical to measure the current and desired leanness levels in order to clearly evaluate lean implementation efforts. Despite the fact that many lean strategies are utilized to reduce or eliminate manufacturing waste, little effort has been directed towards properly assessing the leanness of manufacturing organizations. In practice, a single or specific group of metrics (either qualitative or quantitative) will only partially measure the overall leanness. Existing leanness assessment methodologies do not offer a comprehensive evaluation method, integrating both quantitative and qualitative lean measures into a single quantitative value for measuring the overall leanness of an organization. This research aims to develop mathematical models and a systematic methodology for selecting appropriate lean strategies and evaluating the leanness levels in manufacturing organizations. Mathematical models were formulated and a methodology was developed for selecting appropriate lean strategies within manufacturers' limited amount of available resources to reduce their identified wastes. A leanness assessment model was developed by using the fuzzy concept to assess the leanness level and to recommend an optimum leanness value for a manufacturing organization. In the proposed leanness assessment model, both quantitative and qualitative input factors have been taken into account. Based on program developed in MATLAB and C#, a decision support tool (DST) was developed for decision makers to select lean strategies and evaluate the leanness value based on the proposed models and methodology hence sustain the lean implementation efforts. A case study was conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of these proposed models and methodology. Case study results suggested that out of 10 wastes identified, the case organization (ABC Limited) is able to improve a maximum of six wastes from the selected workstation within their resource limitations. The selected wastes are: unnecessary motion, setup time, unnecessary transportation, inappropriate processing, work in process and raw material inventory and suggested lean strategies are: 5S, Just-In-Time, Kanban System, the Visual Management System (VMS), Cellular Manufacturing, Standard Work Process using method-time measurement (MTM), and Single Minute Exchange of Die (SMED). From the suggested lean strategies, the impact of 5S was demonstrated by measuring the leanness level of two different situations in ABC. After that, MTM was suggested as a standard work process for further improvement of the current leanness value. The initial status of the organization showed a leanness value of 0.12. By applying 5S, the leanness level significantly improved to reach 0.19 and the simulation of MTM as a standard work method shows the leanness value could be improved to 0.31. The optimum leanness value of ABC was calculated to be 0.64. These leanness values provided a quantitative indication of the impacts of improvement initiatives in terms of the overall leanness level to the case organization. Sensitivity analsysis and a t-test were also performed to validate the model proposed. This research advances the current knowledge base by developing mathematical models and methodologies to overcome lean strategy selection and leanness assessment problems. By selecting appropriate lean strategies, a manufacturer can better prioritize implementation efforts and resources to maximize the benefits of implementing lean strategies in their organization. The leanness index is used to evaluate an organization's current (before lean implementation) leanness state against the state after lean implementation and to establish benchmarking (the optimum leanness state). Hence, this research provides a continuous improvement tool for a lean manufacturing organization.