The Relevance Framework for Category-Based Induction: Evidence From Garden-Path Arguments

Relevance theory (Sperber & Wilson. 1995) suggests that people expend cognitive effort when processing information in proportion to the cognitive effects to be gained from doing so. This theory has been used to explain how people apply their knowledge appropriately when evaluating category-based inductive arguments (Medin, Coley, Storms, & Hayes, 2003). In such arguments, people are told that a property is true of premise categories and are asked to evaluate the likelihood that it is also true of conclusion categories. According to the relevance framework, reasoners generate hypotheses about the relevant relation between the categories in the argument. We reasoned that premises inconsistent with early hypotheses about the relevant relation would have greater effects than consistent premises. We designed three premise garden-path arguments where the same 3rd premise was either consistent or inconsistent with likely hypotheses about the relevant relation. In Experiments 1 and 2, we showed that effort expended processing consistent premises (measured via reading times) was significantly less than effort expended on inconsistent premises. In Experiment 2 and 3, we demonstrated a direct relation between cognitive effect and cognitive effort. For garden-path arguments, belief change given inconsistent 3rd premises was significantly correlated with Premise 3 (Experiment 3) and conclusion (Experiments 2 and 3) reading times. For consistent arguments, the correlation between belief change and reading times did not approach significance. These results support the relevance framework for induction but are difficult to accommodate under other approaches.

The UMIST database for astrochemistry 1995

We report the release of a new version of the UMIST database for astrochemistry. The database contains the rate coefficients of 3864 gas-phase reactions important in interstellar and circumstellar chemistry and involves 395 species and 12 elements. The previous (1990) version of this database has been widely used by modellers. In addition to the rate coefficients, we also tabulate permanent electric dipole moments of the neutral species and heats of formation. A numerical model of the chemical evolution of a dark cloud is calculated and important differences to that calculated with the previous database noted.

The long-term impacts of fisheries on epifaunal assemblage function and structure, in a special area of conservation

Fisheries can have profound effects on epifaunal community function and structure. We analysed the results from five dive surveys (1975–1976, 1980, 1983, 2003 and 2007), taken in a Special Area of Conservation, Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland before and after a ten year period of increased trawling activity between 1985 and 1995. There were no detectable differences in the species richness or taxonomic distinctiveness before (1975–1983) and after (2003–2007) this period. However, there was a shift in the epifaunal assemblage between the surveys in 1975–1983 and 2003–2007. In general, the slow-moving, or sessile, erect, filterfeeders were replaced by highly mobile, swimming, scavengers and predators. There were declines in the frequency of the fished bivalve Aequipecten opercularis and the non-fished bivalves Modiolus modiolus and Chlamys varia and some erect sessile invertebrates between the surveys in 1975–1983 and 2003–2007. In contrast, there were increases in the frequency of the fished and reseeded bivalves Pecten maximus and Ostrea edulis, the fished crabs Cancer pagurus and Necora puber and the non-fished sea stars Asterias rubens, Crossaster papposus and Henricia oculata between the surveys in 1975–1983 and 2003–2007. We suggest that these shifts could be directly and indirectly attributed to the long-termimpacts of trawl fishing gear, although increases in the supply of discarded bait and influxes of sediment may also have contributed to changes in the frequency of some taxa. These results suggest that despite their limitations, historical surveys and repeat sampling over long periods can help to elucidate the inferred patterns in the epifaunal community. The use of commercial fishing gear was banned from two areas in Strangford Lough in 2011, making it a model ecosystem for assessing the long-term recovery of the epifaunal community from the impacts of mobile and pot fishing gear.

Oesophageal cancer survival in Europe:A EUROCARE-4 study

Oesophageal cancer survival is poor with variation across Europe. No pan-European studies of survival differences by oesophageal cancer subtype exist. This study investigates rates and trends in oesophageal cancer survival across Europe. Data for primary malignant oesophageal cancer diagnosed in 1995-1999 and followed up to the end of 2003 was obtained from 66 cancer registries in 24 European countries. Relative survival was calculated using the Hakulinen approach. Staging data were available from 19 registries. Survival by region, gender, age, morphology and stage was investigated. Cohort analysis and the period approach were applied to investigate survival trends from 1988 to 2002 for 31 registries in 17 countries. In total 51,499 cases of oesophageal cancer diagnosed 1995-1999 were analysed. Overall, European 1- and 5-year survival rates were 33.4% (95% CI 32.9-33.9%) and 9.8% (95% CI 9.4-10.1%), respectively. Males, older patients and patients with late stage disease had poorer 1- and 5-year relative survival. Patients with squamous cell carcinoma had poorer 1-year relative survival. Regional variation in survival was observed with Central Europe above and Eastern Europe below the European pool. Survival for distant stage disease was similar across Europe while survival rates for localised disease were below the European pool in Eastern and Southern Europe. Improvement in European 1-year relative survival was reported (p=0.016). Oesophageal cancer survival was poor across Europe. Persistent regional variations in 1-year survival point to a need for a high resolution study of diagnostic and treatment practices of oesophageal cancer.