Birth Prevalence and Natural History of Congenital Cytomegalovirus Infection in a Highly Seroimmune Population

Background. The natural history of congenital cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is scarcely known in populations with high maternal CMV seroprevalence. This study evaluated the birth prevalence, clinical findings at birth, and hearing outcome in CMV-infected children from such a population. Methods. Consecutively born infants were screened for the presence of CMV in urine and/or saliva specimens during the first 2 weeks after birth. Neonatal clinical findings were recorded, and CMV-infected children were tested to document hearing function during follow-up. A subset of mothers of CMV-infected infants were prenatally tested for the presence of anti-CMV immunoglobulin G antibodies. Results. Congenital CMV infection was confirmed in 87 (1.08%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.86%-1.33%) of 8047 infants. Seven infants (8.1%; 95% CI, 3.3%-15.9%) had at least 1 clinical finding suggestive of CMV infection, and 4 (4.6%; 95% CI, 1.3%-11.3%) had 13 findings of systemic disease. Sensorineural hearing loss was found in 5 (8.6%; 95% CI, 2.9%-19.0%) of 58 children tested at a median age of 21 months. Bilateral profound hearing loss was observed in 2 children, and the hearing threshold was 160 decibels in all 5 children with hearing loss, including 2 children born to mothers with probable nonprimary CMV infection. Conclusions. The results of this large newborn screening study in a population with high CMV seroimmunity provide additional evidence that congenital CMV disease occurs in populations with high seroprevalence rates, with a similar incidence of CMV-related hearing loss to that reported in the offspring of women from populations in developed countries with lower rates of seroimmunity to CMV.

Economic constraints on public policy

Economics is commonly described as "the science of allocating scarce resources." By contrast, a popular description of politics is "the art of the possible." Both of these descriptions refer to the same central feature of human existence: our wants generally exceed our capacity to satisfy them. However, economic and political approaches to the problem of scarcity are quite different. [Extract from Introduction]

The teaching of History meets its past: memories of teaching staff during the civil-military dictatorship

The civil-military dictatorship, which took power in 1964, influenced the daily activities of schools and teachers. Many transformations occurred during this period, including the new legislation enacted under Law 5692/71 and changes which occurred due to the vigilance which teachers felt when working. The memories analyzed here of teachers from public schools in Sao Paulo show different perceptions of this surveillance, involving various forms of acceptance or resistance. The purpose of this article is to show that although there was no direct repression of schools, unlike in the universities, teachers at the elementary school also felt constrained and this can be seen in their educational practices and teaching concepts.

A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.