The influence of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ENSO

The influences of a substantial weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the tropical Pacific climate mean state, the annual cycle, and ENSO variability are studied using five different coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). In the CGCMs, a substantial weakening of the AMOC is induced by adding freshwater flux forcing in the northern North Atlantic. In response, the well-known surface temperature dipole in the low-latitude Atlantic is established, which reorganizes the large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation by increasing the northeasterly trade winds. This leads to a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the tropical Atlantic and also the eastern tropical Pacific. Because of evaporative fluxes, mixing, and changes in Ekman divergence, a meridional temperature anomaly is generated in the northeastern tropical Pacific, which leads to the development of a meridionally symmetric thermal background state. In four out of five CGCMs this leads to a substantial weakening of the annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific and a subsequent intensification of ENSO variability due to nonlinear interactions. In one of the CGCM simulations, an ENSO intensification occurs as a result of a zonal mean thermocline shoaling. Analysis suggests that the atmospheric circulation changes forced by tropical Atlantic SSTs can easily influence the large-scale atmospheric circulation and hence tropical eastern Pacific climate. Furthermore, it is concluded that the existence of the present-day tropical Pacific cold tongue complex and the annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific are partly controlled by the strength of the AMOC. The results may have important implications for the interpretation of global multidecadal variability and paleo-proxy data.

Monitoring present day changes in water vapour and the radiative energy balance using satellite data, reanalyses and models

A combination of satellite data, reanalysis products and climate models are combined to monitor changes in water vapour, clear-sky radiative cooling of the atmosphere and precipitation over the period 1979-2006. Climate models are able to simulate observed increases in column integrated water vapour (CWV) with surface temperature (Ts) over the ocean. Changes in the observing system lead to spurious variability in water vapour and clear-sky longwave radiation in reanalysis products. Nevertheless all products considered exhibit a robust increase in clear-sky longwave radiative cooling from the atmosphere to the surface; clear-sky longwave radiative cooling of the atmosphere is found to increase with Ts at the rate of ~4 Wm-2 K-1 over tropical ocean regions of mean descending vertical motion. Precipitation (P) is tightly coupled to atmospheric radiative cooling rates and this implies an increase in P with warming at a slower rate than the observed increases in CWV. Since convective precipitation depends on moisture convergence, the above implies enhanced precipitation over convective regions and reduced precipitation over convectively suppressed regimes. To quantify this response, observed and simulated changes in precipitation rate are analysed separately over regions of mean ascending and descending vertical motion over the tropics. The observed response is found to be substantially larger than the model simulations and climate change projections. It is currently not clear whether this is due to deficiencies in model parametrizations or errors in satellite retrievals.

The impact of moist processes on the African easterly jet-African easterly wave system

The African Easterly Jet-Easterly Wave (AEJ-AEW) system was explored in an idealised model. Prescribed zonally symmetric surface temperature and moisture profiles determine the AEJ which becomes established through meridional contrasts in dry and moist convection.As in previous studies, a realistic AEJ developed with only dry convection. Including moist processes, increased its development rate, but reduced its speed and meridional extent. AEWs grew through barotropic-baroclinic conversions. Negative meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradients arose in the zonally symmetric state through the intrusion of the low-PV Saharan boundary layer. Since moist processes strengthened this significantly through diabatically generated PV in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, moist AEWs were three times stronger. Larger barotropic conversions and faster AEJ development increased the moist wave growth-rate. Jet-level and northerly low-level amplitudes grew, but in the moist case the low-level amplitudes weakened as the AEW interacted with convection, consistent with their absence from observations during the peak monsoon. Striking dependencies between the AEJ, AEW and rainfall existed. Two time-scales governed their evolution, depending on the transfer coefficients: (1) the AEJ's replenishment rate influenced by heat fluxes, and (2) the wave growth-rate, by damping, and the slower jet development rate.Moist AEWs were characterized by intermittent growth/decay, with growth preceded by increased mean rainfall and later, weakening AEJs. These dependencies established an internal 8-10-day variability, consistent with intra-seasonal observations of 9-day rainy sequences. This internal variability offers an alternative explanation to the previously proposed external forcing and a new view of the moist AEW life cycle. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Modelling the movement and survival of the root-feeding clover weevil, Sitona lepidus, in the root-zone of white clover

White clover (Trifolium repens) is an important pasture legume but is often difficult to sustain in a mixed sward because, among other things, of the damage to roots caused by the soil-dwelling larval stages of S. lepidus. Locating the root nodules on the white clover roots is crucial for the survival of the newly hatched larvae. This paper presents a numerical model to simulate the movement of newly hatched S. lepidus larvae towards the root nodules, guided by a chemical signal released by the nodules. The model is based on the diffusion-chemotaxis equation. Experimental observations showed that the average speed of the larvae remained approximately constant, so the diffusion-chernotaxis model was modified so that the larvae respond only to the gradient direction of the chemical signal but not its magnitude. An individual-based lattice Boltzmann method was used to simulate the movement of individual larvae, and the parameters required for the model were estimated from the measurement of larval movement towards nodules in soil scanned using X-ray microtomography. The model was used to investigate the effects of nodule density, the rate of release of chemical signal, the sensitivity of the larvae to the signal, and the random foraging of the larvae on the movement and subsequent survival of the larvae. The simulations showed that the most significant factors for larval survival were nodule density and the sensitivity of the larvae to the signal. The dependence of larval survival rate on nodule density was well fitted by the Michealis-Menten kinetics. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal scale issues in determining biomass burning regimes in Bolivia and Peru

ATSR-2 active fire data from 1996 to 2000, TRMM VIRS fire counts from 1998 to 2000 and burn scars derived from SPOT VEGETATION ( the Global Burnt Area 2000 product) were mapped for Peru and Bolivia to analyse the spatial distribution of burning and its intra- and inter-annual variability. The fire season in the region mainly occurs between May and October; though some variation was found between the six broad habitat types analysed: desert, grassland, savanna, dry forest, moist forest and yungas (the forested valleys on the eastern slope of the Andes). Increased levels of burning were generally recorded in ATSR-2 and TRMM VIRS fire data in response to the 1997/1998 El Nino, but in some areas the El Nino effect was masked by the more marked influences of socio-economic change on land use and land cover. There were differences between the three global datasets: ATSR-2 under-recorded fires in ecosystems with low net primary productivities. This was because fires are set during the day in this region and, when fuel loads are low, burn out before the ATSR-2 overpass in the region which is between 02.45 h and 03.30 h. TRMM VIRS was able to detect these fires because its overpasses cover the entire diurnal range on a monthly basis. The GBA2000 product has significant errors of commission (particularly areas of shadow in the well-dissected eastern Andes) and omission (in the agricultural zone around Santa Cruz, Bolivia and in north-west Peru). Particular attention was paid to biomass burning in high-altitude grasslands, where fire is an important pastoral management technique. Fires and burn scars from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM) data for a range of years between 1987 and 2000 were mapped for areas around Parque Nacional Rio Abiseo (Peru) and Parque Nacional Carrasco (Bolivia). Burn scars mapped in the grasslands of these two areas indicate far more burning had taken place than either the fires or the burn scars derived from global datasets. Mean scar sizes are smaller and have a smaller range in size between years the in the study area in Peru (6.6-7.1 ha) than Bolivia (16.9-162.5 ha). Trends in biomass burning in the two highland areas can be explained in terms of the changing socio-economic environments and impacts of conservation. The mismatch between the spatial scale of biomass burning in the high-altitude grasslands and the sensors used to derive global fire products means that an entire component of the fire regime in the region studied is omitted, despite its importance in the farming systems on the Andes.

Catchment-scale modelling of flow and nutrient transport in the Chalk unsaturated zone

The unsaturated zone exerts a major control on the delivery of nutrients to Chalk streams, yet flow and transport processes in this complex, dual-porosity medium have remained controversial. A major challenge arises in characterising these processes, both at the detailed mechanistic level and at an appropriate level for inclusion within catchment-scale models for nutrient management. The lowland catchment research (LOCAR) programme in the UK has provided a unique set of comprehensively instrumented groundwater-dominated catchments. Of these, the Pang and Lambourn, tributaries of the Thames near Reading, have been a particular focus for research into subsurface processes and surface water-groundwater interactions. Data from LOCAR and other sources, along with a new dual permeability numerical model of the Chalk, have been used to explore the relative roles of matrix and fracture flow within the unsaturated zone and resolve conflicting hypotheses of response. From the improved understanding gained through these explorations, a parsimonious conceptualisation of the general response of flow and transport within the Chalk unsaturated zone was formulated. This paper summarises the modelling and data findings of these explorations, and describes the integration of the new simplified unsaturated zone representation with a catchment-scale model of nutrients (INCA), resulting in a new model for catchment-scale flow and transport within Chalk systems: INCA-Chalk. This model is applied to the Lambourn, and results, including hindcast and forecast simulations, are presented. These clearly illustrate the decadal time-scales that need to be considered in the context of nutrient management and the EU Water Framework Directive. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of water-level response to rainfall and implications for recharge pathways in the Chalk aquifer, SE England

Water table response to rainfall was investigated at six sites in the Upper, Middle and Lower Chalk of southern England. Daily time series of rainfall and borehole water level were cross-corretated to investigate seasonal variations in groundwater-level response times, based on periods of 3-month duration. The time tags (in days) yielding significant correlations were compared with the average unsaturated zone thickness during each 3-month period. In general, for cases when the unsaturated zone was greater than 18 m thick, the time tag for a significant water-level response increased rapidly once the depth to the water table exceeded a critical value, which varied from site to site. For shallower water tables, a linear relationship between the depth to the water table and the water-level response time was evident. The observed variations in response time can only be partially accounted for using a diffusive model for propagation through the unsaturated matrix, suggesting that some fissure flow was occurring. The majority of rapid responses were observed during the winter/spring recharge period, when the unsaturated zone is thinnest and the unsaturated zone moisture content is highest, and were more likely to occur when the rainfall intensity exceeded 5 mm/day. At some sites, a very rapid response within 24 h of rainfall was observed in addition to the longer term responses even when the unsaturated zone was up to 64 m thick. This response was generally associated with the autumn period. The results of the cross-correlation analysis provide statistical support for the presence of fissure flow and for the contribution of multiple pathways through the unsaturated zone to groundwater recharge. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Neolithic woodland composition and exploitation in the Southern Levant: a comparison between archaeobotanical remains from WF16 and present day woodland at Hammam Adethni

Excavations at the Pre-Pottery Neolithic site of WF16 in the Southern Levant produced an archaeobotanical assemblage constituted by plant macro-fossils and wood charcoal. As with all such assemblages, its species composition will most likely provide a biased reflection of those within the Neolithic woodland that had been exploited owing to cultural selection and differential preservation. As a means of facilitating its interpretation, a survey was undertaken of a relatively undisturbed patch of gallery woodland associated with a permanent water course at Hammam Adethni, approximately four kilometres south-east of WF16. The substantial overlap of the species within this woodland and those in the archaeobotanical assemblage suggests that this present-day woodland provides an analogue for that of the Neolithic and may therefore indicate what other plant resources the inhabitants of WF16 may have exploited, but which have left no archaeological trace. The interpretation of the results is supported by a comparative study of wood charcoal from present-day Bedouin hearths in Wadi Faynan.

Distribution of nutrients in the root zone affects yield, quality and blossom end rot of tomato fruits

Tomato plants (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill. 'DRK') were grown hydroponically in two experiments to determine the effects of nutrient concentration and distribution in the root zone on yield, quality and blossom end rot (BER). The plants were grown in rockwool with their root systems divided into two portions. Each portion was irrigated with nutrient solutions with either the same or different electrical conductivity (EC) in the range 0 to 6 dS m(-1). In both experiments, fruit yields decreased as EC increased from moderate to high when solutions of equal concentration were applied to both portions of the root system. However, higher yields were obtained when a solution with high EC was applied to one portion of the root system and a solution of low EC to the other portion. For example, the fresh weight of mature fruits in the 6/6 treatment was only 20% that of the 3/3 treatment but the 6/0 treatment had a yield that was 40% higher. The reduction in yield in the high EC treatments was due to an increase in the number of fruits with BER and smaller fruit size. BER increased from 12% to 88% of total fruits as EC increased from 6/0 to 6/6 and fruit length decreased from 67 mm to 52 mm. Fruit quality (expressed as titratable acidity and soluble solids) increased as EC increased. In summary, high yields of high quality tomatoes with minimal incidence of BER were obtained when one portion of the root system was supplied with a solution of high EC and the other portion with a solution of moderate or zero EC.