Farm-Level Analysis of Risk Management Proposals, March 2000

This paper presents a detailed report of the representative farm analysis (summarized in FAPRI Policy Working Paper #01-00). At the request of several members of the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry of the U.S. Senate, we have continued to analyze the impacts of the Farmers’ Risk Management Act of 1999 (S. 1666) and the Risk Management for the 21st Century Act (S. 1580). Earlier analysis reported in FAPRI Policy Working Paper #04-99 concentrated on the aggregate net farm income and government outlay impacts. The representative farm analysis is conducted for several types of farms, including both irrigated and non-irrigated cotton farms in Tom Green County, Texas; dryland wheat farms in Morton County, North Dakota and Sumner County, Kansas; and a corn farm in Webster County, Iowa. We consider additional factors that may shed light on the differential impacts of the two plans. 1. Farm-level income impacts under alternative weather scenarios. 2. Additional indirect impacts, such as a change in ability to obtain financing. 3. Implications of within-year price shocks. Our results indicate that farmers who buy crop insurance will increase their coverage levels under S. 1580. Farmers with high yield risk find that the 65 percent coverage level maximizes expected returns, but some who feel that they obtain other benefits from higher coverage will find that the S. 1580 subsidy schedule significantly lowers the cost of obtaining the additional coverage. Farmers with lower yield risk find that the increased indemnities from additional coverage will more than offset the increase in producer premium. In addition, because S. 1580 extends its increased premium subsidy percentages to revenue insurance products, farmers will have an increased incentive to buy revenue insurance. Differences in the ancillary benefits from crop insurance under the baseline and S. 1580 would be driven by the increase in insurance participation and buy-up. Given the same levels of insurance participation and buy-up, the ancillary benefits under the two scenarios would be the same.

Freilandversuche mit gentechnisch verändertem Weizen mit Mehltauresistenz

Nutzen und Umweltrisiken von gentechnisch verändertem (GV) Sommerweizen mit verbesserter Mehltauresistenz wurde von einem Verbund Schweizer Forschungsgruppen von 2008 bis 2010 an zwei Standorten im Freiland untersucht. GV Weizenlinien mit spezifischer Resistenz gegen Mehltau und allgemeiner Pilzresistenz wurde mit Kontrolllinien, kommerziellen Weizensorten sowie Gerste und Triticale verglichen. Neben der Mehltauresistenz wurden die Auswirkungen auf Insekten und Bodenlebewesen (Bakterien, Mykorrhizapilze, Bodenfauna) sowie die Auskreuzung auf Weizen untersucht. Mehrere GV Weizenlinien waren deutlich resistenter gegen Mehltau als ihre Kontrollen. Es wurden keine relevanten Auswirkungen auf Nichtzielorganismen, deren Biodiversität und ausgewählte Ökosystemleistungen gefunden. Insgesamt waren die Unterschiede zwischen GV und Kontrolllinien geringer als zwischen kommerziellen Weizensorten oder anderen Getreidearten. Auskreuzungsereignisse waren selten und wurden nur in kurzer Distanz zu GV Versuchspflanzen gefunden.

Poor, Hungry and Stupid: Numeracy and the Impact of High Food Prices in Industrializing Britain, 1780-1850

This paper argues that low levels of nutrition impaired cognitive development in industrializing England, and that welfare transfers mitigated the adverse effects of high food prices. Age heaping is used as an indicator of numeracy, as derived from census data. For the cohorts from 1780-1850, we analyse the effect of high grain prices during the Napoleonic Wars. We show that numeracy declined markedly for those born during the war years, especially when wheat was dear. Crucially, where the Old Poor Law provided for generous relief payments, the adverse impact of high prices for foodstuffs was mitigated. Finally, we show some tentative evidence that Englishmen born in areas with low income support selected into occupations with lower cognitive requirements.

Biotic Factors Affecting Expression of the 2,4-Diacetylphloroglucinol Biosynthesis Gene phlA in Pseudomonas fluorescens Biocontrol Strain CHA0 in the Rhizosphere.

ABSTRACT Production of the polyketide antimicrobial metabolite 2,4-diacetyl-phloroglucinol (DAPG) is a key factor in the biocontrol activity of Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0. Strain CHA0 carrying a translational phlA'-'lacZ fusion was used to monitor expression of the phl biosynthetic genes in vitro and in the rhizosphere. Expression of the reporter gene accurately reflected actual production of DAPG in vitro and in planta as determined by direct extraction of the antimicrobial compound. In a gnotobiotic system containing a clay and sand-based artificial soil, reporter gene expression was significantly greater in the rhizospheres of two monocots (maize and wheat) compared with gene expression in the rhizospheres of two dicots (bean and cucumber). We observed this host genotype effect on bacterial gene expression also at the level of cultivars. Significant differences were found among six additional maize cultivars tested under gnotobiotic conditions. There was no difference between transgenic maize expressing the Bacillus thuringiensis insecticidal gene cry1Ab and the near-isogenic parent line. Plant age had a significant impact on gene expression. Using maize as a model, expression of the phlA'-'lacZ reporter gene peaked at 24 h after planting of pregerminated seedlings, and dropped to a fourth of that value within 48 h, remaining at that level throughout 22 days of plant growth. Root infection by Pythium ultimum stimulated bacterial gene expression on both cucumber and maize, and this was independent of differences in rhizosphere colonization on these host plants. To our knowledge, this is the first comprehensive evaluation of how biotic factors that commonly confront bacterial inoculants in agricultural systems (host genotype, host age, and pathogen infection) modulate the expression of key biocontrol genes for disease suppression.

The Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Sectors: A Preliminary Assessment, November 2006

The ongoing growth of corn-based ethanol production raises some fundamental questions about what impact continued growth will have on U.S. and world agriculture. Estimates of the long-run potential for ethanol production can be made by calculating the corn price at which the incentive to expand ethanol production disappears. Under current ethanol tax policy, if the prices of crude oil, natural gas, and distillers grains stay at current levels, then the break-even corn price is $4.05 per bushel. A multi-commodity, multi country system of integrated commodity models is used to estimate the impacts if we ever get to $4.05 corn. At this price, corn-based ethanol production would reach 31.5 billion gallons per year, or about 20% of projected U.S. fuel consumption in 2015. Supporting this level of production would require 95.6 million acres of corn to be planted. Total corn production would be approximately 15.6 billion bushels, compared to 11.0 billion bushels today. Most of the additional corn acres come from reduced soybean acreage. Wheat markets would adjust to fulfill increased demand for feed wheat. Corn exports and production of pork and poultry would all be reduced in response to higher corn prices and increased utilization of corn by ethanol plants. These results should not be viewed as a prediction of what will eventually materialize. Rather, they indicate a logical end point to the current incentives to invest in corn-based ethanol plants.

Intra-Industry Trade, Multilateral Trade Integration, and Invasive Species Risk, December 2006

We analyze the linkage between protectionism and invasive species (IS) hazard in the context of two-way trade and multilateral trade integration, two major features of real-world agricultural trade. Multilateral integration includes the joint reduction of tariffs and trade costs among trading partners. Multilateral trade integration is more likely to increase damages from IS than predicted by unilateral trade opening under the classic Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (HOS) framework because domestic production (the base susceptible to damages) is likely to increase with expanding export markets. A country integrating its trade with a partner characterized by relatively higher tariff and trade costs is also more likely to experience increased IS damages via expanded domestic production for the same reason. We illustrate our analytical results with a stylized model of the world wheat market.

Emerging Biofuels: Outlook of Effects on U.S. Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Markets, 2007

Projections of U.S. ethanol production and its impacts on planted acreage, crop prices, livestock production and prices, trade, and retail food costs are presented under the assumption that current tax credits and trade policies are maintained. The projections were made using a multi-product, multi-country deterministic partial equilibrium model. The impacts of higher oil prices, a drought combined with an ethanol mandate, and removal of land from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) relative to baseline projections are also presented. The results indicate that expanded U.S. ethanol production will cause long-run crop prices to increase. In response to higher feed costs, livestock farmgate prices will increase enough to cover the feed cost increases. Retail meat, egg, and dairy prices will also increase. If oil prices are permanently $10-per-barrel higher than assumed in the baseline projections, U.S. ethanol will expand significantly. The magnitude of the expansion will depend on the future makeup of the U.S. automobile fleet. If sufficient demand for E-85 from flex-fuel vehicles is available, corn-based ethanol production is projected to increase to over 30 billion gallons per year with the higher oil prices. The direct effect of higher feed costs is that U.S. food prices would increase by a minimum of 1.1% over baseline levels. Results of a model of a 1988-type drought combined with a large mandate for continued ethanol production show sharply higher crop prices, a drop in livestock production, and higher food prices. Corn exports would drop significantly, and feed costs would rise. Wheat feed use would rise sharply. Taking additional land out of the CRP would lower crop prices in the short run. But because long-run corn prices are determined by ethanol prices and not by corn acreage, the long-run impacts on commodity prices and food prices of a smaller CRP are modest. Cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass and biodiesel from soybeans do not become economically viable in the Corn Belt under any of the scenarios. This is so because high energy costs that increase the prices of biodiesel and switchgrass ethanol also increase the price of cornbased ethanol. So long as producers can choose between soybeans for biodiesel, switchgrass for ethanol, and corn for ethanol, they will choose to grow corn. Cellulosic ethanol from corn stover does not enter into any scenario because of the high cost of collecting and transporting corn stover over the large distances required to supply a commercial-sized ethanol facility.

Current status of the whitefly Aleurodicus dispersus as an invasive pest in the CapeVerte Islands

In the last three decades, the spiralling whitefly (Aleurodicus dispersus) has become an important international pest. The movement of plants and parts of plants (such as fruits) in international trade and tourism, and by natural dispersal, has favoured its introduction to new areas. In common with others whiteflies of economic importance, the immature and adult stages cause direct feeding damage by piercing and sucking of sap from foliage, and indirect damage following the accumulation all over host plants of honeydew and waxy flocculent material produced by the insects. Spiralling whitefly is a pest of tropical and subtropical crops, and highly polyphagous. Up to the 1970s, it had been recorded on 44 genera of plants, belonging to 26 botanical families (Mound & Halsey, 1978). This situation changed with the dispersal of the pest to new areas. Nowadays, the spiralling whitefly is one of the major pest of vegetable, ornamental and fruit crops around the globe (Lambkin, 1999). Important host crops include: banana (Musa sapientum), Citrus spp., coconut (Cocos nocifera), eggplant (Solanum melanogena), guava (Psidium guajava), Hibiscus rosa sinensis, Indian almond (Terminalia catappa), papya (Carica papaya), Rosa sp. and tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum) (Saminathan & Jayaraj, 2001). Spiralling whitefly has its origin in the tropical Americas, including Brazil. Although the pest has been recorded only once in Brasil, in the 1920s in the state of Bahia (Bondar, 1923), it now has official quarantine status because of its economic importance. In the Cape Verte Islands, on the West African coast, the pest was initially introduced in the first half of 2000; it has since become established, reaching urban, natural and agricultural areas of the islands that constitute the archipelago. Since then, the pest has been causing damage to many native plants, ornamentals and cultivated food crops (Anon., 2001; Monteiro, 2004). The present study was done in order to produce an inventory of the most common host plants of spiralling whitefly in this new habitat.

Analysis of the genetic diversity in Metopolophium dirhodum (Walker) (Hemiptera, Aphididae) by RAPD markers

The emergence of host-races within aphids may constitute an obstacle to pest management by means of plant resistance. There are examples of host-races within cereals aphids, but their occurrence in Rose Grain Aphid, Metopolophium dirhodum (Walker, 1849), has not been reported yet. In this work, RAPD markers were used to assess effects of the hosts and geographic distance on the genetic diversity of M. dirhodum lineages. Twenty-three clones were collected on oats and wheat in twelve localitites of southern Brazil. From twenty-seven primers tested, only four primers showed polymorphisms. Fourteen different genotypes were revealed by cluster analysis. Five genotypes were collected only on wheat; seven only on oats and two were collected in both hosts. Genetic and geographical distances among all clonal lineages were not correlated. Analysis of molecular variance showed that some molecular markers are not randomly distributed among clonal lineages collected on oats and on wheat. These results suggest the existence of host-races within M. dirhodum, which should be further investigated using a combination of ecological and genetic data.

Bioactivity of Indonesian mahogany, Toona sureni (Blume) (Meliaceae), against the red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum (Coleoptera, Tenebrionidae)

Bioactivity of Indonesian mahogany, Toona sureni (Blume) (Meliaceae), against the red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum (Coleoptera, Tenebrionidae). The insecticidal activity of Toona sureni (Blume) Merr. was evaluated considering repellency, mortality and progeny production of F1 adults of Tribolium castaneum (Herbst, 1797) (Coleoptera, Tenebrionidae). Dried extract of seeds of T. sureni was dissolved in acetone to prepare solution of various concentrations (0.5, 1.0, 2.5 and 5.0%). To test for repellency, the insects were exposed to treated filter paper. Mortality of larvae, pupae and adults was evaluated by the treatment of spraying the insects with different concentrations of T. sureni extract. Residual effect of the extract was also evaluated considering the production of progeny of F1 adults. The highest repellency (93.30%) of T. castaneum occurred at the highest concentration (5.0% suspension of T. sureni); while the lowest (0.0%) repellency occurred at 0.5% suspension after 1 day of treatment. The highest mortality against adults (86.71%), larvae (88.32%) and pupae (85%) occurred at 5% suspension at 8 days after application. There was a negative correlation between the concentrations of T. sureni and the production of F1 adult's progeny of T. castaneum. The highest number of progeny (147) of T. castaneum occurred in the control at 7 days after treatment; and the lowest number of progeny (43) occurred at 5.0% concentration in 1 day after treatment. The results show that T. sureni is toxic to T. castaneum and has the potential to control all stages of this insect in stored wheat.

Combination of fluorescent reporters for simultaneous monitoring of root colonization and antifungal gene expression by a biocontrol pseudomonad on cereals with flow cytometry.

Some root-associated pseudomonads sustain plant growth by suppressing root diseases caused by pathogenic fungi. We investigated to which extent select cereal cultivars influence expression of relevant biocontrol traits (i.e., root colonization efficacy and antifungal activity) in Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0. In this representative plant-beneficial bacterium, the antifungal metabolites 2,4-diacetylphloroglucinol (DAPG), pyrrolnitrin (PRN), pyoluteorin (PLT), and hydrogen cyanide (HCN) are required for biocontrol. To monitor host plant effects on the expression of biosynthetic genes for these compounds on roots, we developed fluorescent dual-color reporters suited for flow cytometric analysis using fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS). In the dual-label strains, the constitutively expressed red fluorescent protein mCherry served as a cell tag and marker for root colonization, whereas reporter fusions based on the green fluorescent protein allowed simultaneous recording of antifungal gene expression within the same cell. FACS analysis revealed that expression of DAPG and PRN biosynthetic genes was promoted in a cereal rhizosphere, whereas expression of PLT and HCN biosynthetic genes was markedly less sustained. When analyzing the response of the bacterial reporters on roots of a selection of wheat, spelt, and triticale cultivars, we were able to detect subtle species- and cultivar-dependent differences in colonization and DAPG and HCN gene expression levels. The expression of these biocontrol traits was particularly favored on roots of one spelt cultivar, suggesting that a careful choice of pseudomonad-cereal combinations might be beneficial to biocontrol. Our approach may be useful for selective single-cell level analysis of plant effects in other bacteria-root interactions.

Pyrroloquinoline quinone biosynthesis gene pqqC, a novel molecular marker for studying the phylogeny and diversity of phosphate-solubilizing pseudomonads.

Many root-colonizing pseudomonads are able to promote plant growth by increasing phosphate availability in soil through solubilization of poorly soluble rock phosphates. The major mechanism of phosphate solubilization by pseudomonads is the secretion of gluconic acid, which requires the enzyme glucose dehydrogenase and its cofactor pyrroloquinoline quinone (PQQ). The main aim of this study was to evaluate whether a PQQ biosynthetic gene is suitable to study the phylogeny of phosphate-solubilizing pseudomonads. To this end, two new primers, which specifically amplify the pqqC gene of the Pseudomonas genus, were designed. pqqC fragments were amplified and sequenced from a Pseudomonas strain collection and from a natural wheat rhizosphere population using cultivation-dependent and cultivation-independent approaches. Phylogenetic trees based on pqqC sequences were compared to trees obtained with the two concatenated housekeeping genes rpoD and gyrB. For both pqqC and rpoD-gyrB, similar main phylogenetic clusters were found. However, in the pqqC but not in the rpoD-gyrB tree, the group of fluorescent pseudomonads producing the antifungal compounds 2,4-diacetylphloroglucinol and pyoluteorin was located outside the Pseudomonas fluorescens group. pqqC sequences from isolated pseudomonads were differently distributed among the identified phylogenetic groups than pqqC sequences derived from the cultivation-independent approach. Comparing pqqC phylogeny and phosphate solubilization activity, we identified one phylogenetic group with high solubilization activity. In summary, we demonstrate that the gene pqqC is a novel molecular marker that can be used complementary to housekeeping genes for studying the diversity and evolution of plant-beneficial pseudomonads.

Variability of apparently homogeneous soilscapes in São Paulo state, Brazil: I. spatial analysis

The spatial variability of strongly weathered soils under sugarcane and soybean/wheat rotation was quantitatively assessed on 33 fields in two regions in São Paulo State, Brazil: Araras (15 fields with sugarcane) and Assis (11 fields with sugarcane and seven fields with soybean/wheat rotation). Statistical methods used were: nested analysis of variance (for 11 fields), semivariance analysis and analysis of variance within and between fields. Spatial levels from 50 m to several km were analyzed. Results are discussed with reference to a previously published study carried out in the surroundings of Passo Fundo (RS). Similar variability patterns were found for clay content, organic C content and cation exchange capacity. The fields studied are quite homogeneous with respect to these relatively stable soil characteristics. Spatial variability of other characteristics (resin extractable P, pH, base- and Al-saturation and also soil colour), varies with region and, or land use management. Soil management for sugarcane seems to have induced modifications to greater depths than for soybean/wheat rotation. Surface layers of soils under soybean/wheat present relatively little variation, apparently as a result of very intensive soil management. The major part of within-field variation occurs at short distances (< 50 m) in all study areas. Hence, little extra information would be gained by increasing sampling density from, say, 1/km² to 1/50 m². For many purposes, the soils in the study regions can be mapped with the same observation density, but residual variance will not be the same in all areas. Bulk sampling may help to reveal spatial patterns between 50 and 1.000 m.

Spore communities of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and mycorrhizal associations in different ecosystems, south Australia

Communities of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) were surveyed in different South Australian ecosystems. The soil was wet-sieved for spore extraction, followed by the determination of presence and abundance of AMF species as well as the percentage of root colonization. Mycorrhizal associations were common and there was substantial fungal diversity in different ecosystems. Spores were most abundant in the permanent pasture system and less abundant under continuous wheat. The incidence of mycorrhizal associations in different plant species and the occurrence of Arum and Paris type colonization generally conformed with previous information. Spores of seventeen AMF were verified throughout seasonal changes in 1996 and 1997 in the permanent pasture and on four host species (Lolium perenne, Plantago lanceolata, Sorghum sp. and Trifolium subterraneum) , set up with the same soils under greenhouse conditions. Glomus mosseae was the dominant spore type at all sampling times and in all trap cultures. Mycorrhizal diversity was significantly affected by different sampling times in trap cultures but not in field-collected soil. P. lanceolata, Sorghum sp. and T. subterraneum as hosts for trap cultures showed no differences in richness and diversity of AMF spores that developed in association with their roots. Abundance and diversity were lowest, however, in association with L. perenne , particularly in December 1996. Results show that the combination of spore identification from field-collected soil and trap cultures is essential to study population and diversity of AMF. The study provides baseline data for ongoing monitoring of mycorrhizal populations using conventional methods and material for the determination of the symbiotic effectiveness of AMF key members.

Bacterial subfamily of LuxR regulators that respond to plant compounds.

Pseudomonas fluorescens are rhizobacteria known for their biocontrol properties. Several antimicrobial functions are crucial for this process, and the experiments described here investigate the modulation of their expression during the plant-bacterium interaction. The role of a LuxR family regulator in interkingdom signaling has been investigated using genome-scale transcriptome analysis, gene promoter studies in vivo and in vitro, biocontrol assays, and response to plant compounds. PsoR, a LuxR solo or orphan regulator of P. fluorescens, was identified. PsoR is solubilized and activates a lux-box-containing promoter only in the presence of macerated plants, suggesting the presence of a plant molecule(s) that most likely binds to PsoR. Gene expression profiles revealed that genes involved in the inhibition of plant pathogens were affected by PsoR, including a chitinase gene, iron metabolism genes, and biosynthetic genes of antifungal compounds. 2,4-Diacetylphloroglucinol production is PsoR dependent both in vitro and in vivo. psoR mutants were significantly reduced for their ability to protect wheat plants from root rot, and damping-off caused by Pythium ultimum infection. PsoR most likely senses a molecule(s) in the plant and modulates expression of genes that have a role in biocontrol. PsoR and related proteins form a subfamily of LuxR family regulators in plant-associated bacteria.