On the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for India

In this paper, we apply several variants of the EGARCH model to examine the role of depreciation of the Indian rupee on India's stock market returns using daily data. Our findings suggest that volatility persistence has been high; depreciation of the rupee has increased volatility; and asymmetric volatility confirms that negative shocks generate more volatility than positive shocks. We also find that an appreciation of the Indian rupee over the 2002 to 2006 has generated more returns and less volatility.

Real interest rates, inflation and the open economy : a regime-switching perspective on Australia and New Zealand

We investigate the time-series properties of Australian and New Zealand real interest rates within a Markov-switching framework. This enables us to identify characteristics in real interest rate behavior hitherto unacknowledged. We find that rates switch between alternative stationary regimes characterized by differing means, speeds of mean-reversion and volatility. For New Zealand, high rates of inflation increase the probability of remaining in a regime characterized by a faster speed of adjustment. Further application of this methodology considers the real interest rate differential between Australia and New Zealand and points to differing regimes based on volatility rather than persistence.

Understanding property cycles in a residential market

Purpose – This paper aims to review property cycle theory and the relevance of the larger body of knowledge about cycles with reference to the housing market. It also aims to highlight the lack of research into property cycles in the residential sector on a suburb or smaller region basis, as well as the potential for increased knowledge about cycles to assist to avoid housing stress.

Design/methodology/approach – The paper conducts a literature review of previous cycle research and encourages the use of cycle theory. It discusses the established body of knowledge about business cycles and the office market sector, as well as investigating levels of housing affordability and how detailed knowledge about property cycles can assist to decrease housing affordability in residential areas, which will eventually experience a downturn.

Findings – It is argued that an increased level of certainty about cycle behaviour in particular suburbs will give households a higher level of confidence when considering whether and when to enter the market. Property cycle research has the potential to assist low-income homeowners to better understand the characteristics of cycles and associated risks in each residential.

Research limitations/implications – This is a conceptual paper and has conducted a review of cycle research and housing affordability in certain countries. Some areas or countries may be affected to varying degrees by property cycles and levels of housing affordability.

Practical implications – In extended periods of high volatility it is argued that a better understanding of housing cycles will allow more homeowners to avoid negative equity and the stress associated with repossessions. Property cycles are unavoidable although there is typically relatively little information available in the open market about the timing and amplitude of cycles in individual areas.

Originality/value – This paper is unique as it highlights the potential for property cycles to be used to avoid housing stress in the residential market. Traditionally cycle research is used to increase returns and avoid downturns in the office and/or business sectors.

The temporal price relationship between the stock index futures and the underlying stock index : evidence from Malaysia

The stock index futures was introduced in Malaysia in December 1995 with the launching of the futures contract on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Composite Index. Due to its recentness in the country, many issues pertaining to this equity derivatives instrument have not been explored. Thus, the development of stock index futures opens many opportunities for research in this area. This study examines the temporal relationship between the price of the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Composite Index futures contract (FKLI) and its underlying stock index, the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Composite Index (KLSE CI). The five-year period under study is split into three subperiods to observe the price co-movement pattern under different volatility levels. The study finds that futures market tends to lead the spot market by one day during the periods of stable market, and there is a mixed lead-lag relationship between the two markets during the period of highly volatile market.

Development aid : a fresh look

This book addresses a number of gaps in knowledge on aid allocation and effectiveness, and provides many new and important analytical insights into aid. Among the topics covered are the interface between aid allocation and perceptions of aid effectiveness, the inter-recipient concentration of aid from non-govenment organizations, the year-on-year volatility of aid, impacts of aid on public sector fistcal aggregates, and evaluation of the country-level impacts of aid. The book is an essential companion for professionals engaged in aid policy reforms and also for scholars in the areas of development economics, international finance and economics.

A surface characterisation and microstructural study by scanning electron microscopy of the N-methyl-n-alkylpyrrolidinium tetrafluoroborate organic salts

A microstructural characterisation of the family of N-methyl-N-alkylpyrrolidinium tetrafluoroborate organic salts was carried out by observation of powder surface morphologies with the aim of extending the microstructure-property correlation. Inherent difficulties limiting extensive studies of organic solids by SEM, including volatility under vacuum, charging due to electron beam irradiation, and air-sensitivity were overcome with the use of a Field Emission SEM and cryostage attachment. This technique, providing considerable improvements in image quality at low accelerating voltages, enabled direct observation of complex microstructural features in samples exhibiting high temperature plastic crystalline phases (N,N-dimethylpyrrolidinium tetrafluoroborate [P11BF4]; N-methyl-N-ethylpyrrolidinium tetrafluoroborate [P12BF4]; N-methyl-N-propylpyrrolidinium tetrafluoroborate [P13BF4]). Extensive lattice imperfections including grain boundaries, slip planes and dislocation pits were observed within particles of approximately 200 mgrm diameter. The N-methyl-N-butylpyrrolidinium tetrafluoroborate (P14BF4) sample in this series revealed columnar single crystals with high aspect ratios. The origin of plastic flow properties is discussed using single crystal and polycrystalline slip observations and a relationship proposed between defect characteristics and transport properties.

Liquids intermediate between 'molecular' and 'ionic' liquids : liquid ion pairs?

Ionic liquids comprised of tetradecyltrihexyl- and tetrabutyl- phosphonium cations paired with chloride or sulfonyl amide anions exhibit properties that reflect strong ion association, including comparatively low viscosity as well as a degree of volatility, and hence exemplify an interesting intermediate state between true ionic and true molecular liquids.

Lewis base ionic liquids

Ionic liquids which are (weak) Lewis bases have a number of interesting and useful properties different to those of traditional ionic liquids, including volatility and the possibility of being distillable in some cases, a base catalysis effect in others and enhancement of the acidity of dissolved acids.

Adolescent and pre-conception risk factors for perinatal depression

Women who experienced psychiatric disorder during adolescence reported a 5̃-fold increased risk for depressive symptoms during pregnancy and during the postnatal period. A number of other adolescent and pre-conception risk factors, such as persistent stress and hormonal volatility, were also found to be implicated in the development of perinatal depression. Four case studies of children with profound and pervasive attachment-related disturbances are presented in the portfolio in order to highlight the shortcomings of the current diagnostic criteria for reactive attachment disorder in infancy or early childhood.

Event studies : a methodology review

Originally developed as a statistical tool for empirical research in accounting and finance, event studies have since migrated to other disciplines as well, including economics, history, law, management, marketing, and political science. Despite the elegant simplicity of a standard event study, variations in methodology and their relative merits continue to attract attention in the literature. This paper reviews some of the fundamental topics in short-term event study methodology, with an attempt to add new perspectives to some pressing topics.

Load forecasting and neural networks : a prediction interval-based perspective

Successfully determining competitive optimal schedules for electricity generation intimately hinges on the forecasts of loads. The nonstationarity and high volatility of loads make their accurate prediction somewhat problematic. Presence of uncertainty in data also significantly degrades accuracy of point predictions produced by deterministic load forecasting models. Therefore, operation planning utilizing these predictions will be unreliable. This paper aims at developing prediction intervals rather than producing exact point prediction. Prediction intervals are theatrically more reliable and practical than predicted values. The delta and Bayesian techniques for constructing prediction intervals for forecasted loads are implemented here. To objectively and comprehensively assess quality of constructed prediction intervals, a new index based on length and coverage probability of prediction intervals is developed. In experiments with real data, and through calculation of global statistics, it is shown that neural network point prediction performance is unreliable. In contrast, prediction intervals developed using the delta and Bayesian techniques are satisfactorily narrow, with a high coverage probability.

Transforming value perception in music information systems

Information systems are changing the way artists and consumers create, use and interact with music. Music experience has become richer and more sophisticated than simply buying and listening to music. New links between IS and music are forging unprecedented levels of creative e-collaboration, innovative music technology development, new music commerce and marketing methods, alongside with the emergence of e-music communities nurturing up-and-coming artists careers. Distinct from non-creative industries, the music industry is at the forefront of technological innovation where the ubiquitous adoption of music downloading, widespread use of personal music systems, and value chain disintermediation has shifted the focus of value delivery towards consumer control. This paper provides new insights into the effect of recent technological change on stakeholders within the music industry value chain, and of music information systems upon creative music products. The paper further explores the stakeholder perceptions of the value added or depleted from music by the technology, and examines the future expectations of information systems amidst the volatility and uncertainty of the music industry.

Executive compensation and corporate governance with special reference to Bangladesh; some emerging issues

This discussion paper considers corporate governance issues associated with executive compensation arrangements. An historical perspective is used to demonstrate the absence of a sound empirically-based understanding of good corporate governance practices in relation to share-based payment arrangements. The paper provides an overview of issues including the potential earnings dilution and volatility effects of the introduction of regulations affecting executive remuneration. Potential future research questions have been framed addressing each of the major issues identified in this paper. We conclude that corporate regulators should ensure they are familiar with and consider best practice models for corporate governance when developing new, or revising existing business regulation. It is proposed that further research to remedy this deficiency would enable a more accurate assessment of the impact of management on accounting regulation and the better design and implementation of regulation.

Post Asian financial crisis : a survey of Thai hedging practices

This thesis examines how companies in Thailand coped with exchange rate volatility post Asian Financial Crisis. Findings indicate businesses quickly adjusted to the transition from a fixed to floating regime. However, Thai businesses appear to be less rigorous in their internal control of currency hedging activities. The thesis recommends strategies to overcome this risk.

Understanding the economic dynamics behind growth-inequality relationships

In this paper, a dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model of growth–inequality relationships, with missing credit markets, knowledge spillover and self-employed agents, is calibrated to New Zealand data. The model explains how two distinct policy shocks involving redistribution and immigration imply, subsequently, two completely opposite outcomes. Agents’ inability to borrow aggravates a negative macroeconomic effect of heterogeneity on growth. Redistribution mitigates that effect but creates microeconomic disincentives on saving and work-effort. Consequently, immigration shocks that perturb variance of efficiency induce a negative growth–inequality relationship, while redistribution shocks, in New Zealand’s case, produce larger fluctuations in incentives than in macro benefits, implying a positive growth–inequality relationship.