909 resultados para uncertain volatility
Resumo:
GLUT proteins are encoded by the SLC2 genes and are members of the major facilitator superfamily of membrane transporters. Fourteen GLUT proteins are expressed in the human and they are categorized into three classes based on sequence similarity. All GLUTs appear to transport hexoses or polyols when expressed ectopically, but the primary physiological substrates for several of the GLUTs remain uncertain. GLUTs 1-5 are the most thoroughly studied and all have well established roles as glucose and/or fructose transporters in various tissues and cell types. The GLUT proteins are comprised of ∼500 amino acid residues, possess a single N-linked oligosaccharide, and have 12 membrane-spanning domains. In this review we briefly describe the major characteristics of the 14 GLUT family members.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess the value of a structured clinical assessment and genetic testing for refining the diagnosis of abacavir hypersensitivity reactions (ABC-HSRs) in a routine clinical setting. METHODS: We performed a diagnostic reassessment using a structured patient chart review in individuals who had stopped ABC because of suspected HSR. Two HIV physicians blinded to the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) typing results independently classified these individuals on a scale between 3 (ABC-HSR highly likely) and -3 (ABC-HSR highly unlikely). Scoring was based on symptoms, onset of symptoms and comedication use. Patients were classified as clinically likely (mean score > or =2), uncertain (mean score > or = -1 and < or = 1) and unlikely (mean score < or = -2). HLA typing was performed using sequence-based methods. RESULTS: From 131 reassessed individuals, 27 (21%) were classified as likely, 43 (33%) as unlikely and 61 (47%) as uncertain ABC-HSR. Of the 131 individuals with suspected ABC-HSR, 31% were HLA-B*5701-positive compared with 1% of 140 ABC-tolerant controls (P < 0.001). HLA-B*5701 carriage rate was higher in individuals with likely ABC-HSR compared with those with uncertain or unlikely ABC-HSR (78%, 30% and 5%, respectively, P < 0.001). Only six (7%) HLA-B*5701-negative individuals were classified as likely HSR after reassessment. CONCLUSIONS: HLA-B*5701 carriage is highly predictive of clinically diagnosed ABC-HSR. The high proportion of HLA-B*5701-negative individuals with minor symptoms among individuals with suspected HSR indicates overdiagnosis of ABC-HSR in the era preceding genetic screening. A structured clinical assessment and genetic testing could reduce the rate of inappropriate ABC discontinuation and identify individuals at high risk for ABC-HSR.
Resumo:
Pyoderma gangrenosum is a rare pathology of uncertain etiology. It is an inflammatory dermatosis that causes cutaneous necrosis with a characteristically rapid evolution. No precise diagnosis criteria has been established and pyoderma gangrenosum remains an exclusion diagnosis. In 40 to 50% of the cases, the evolution of pyoderma gangrenosum can be worsened by a nonspecific external stimulus such as a trauma or a surgery. This phenomenon, called pathergy, conduces to avoid any surgical excision of the lesion. However, the diagnosis is often omitted and the rapid evolution of the cutaneous necrosis forces the surgeon to perform a surgical debridement of the wound. It causes a pejoration of the lesion. It can have disastrous consequences. We present here three different case reports.
Resumo:
Preface The starting point for this work and eventually the subject of the whole thesis was the question: how to estimate parameters of the affine stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models. These models are very important for contingent claim pricing. Their major advantage, availability T of analytical solutions for characteristic functions, made them the models of choice for many theoretical constructions and practical applications. At the same time, estimation of parameters of stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models is not a straightforward task. The problem is coming from the variance process, which is non-observable. There are several estimation methodologies that deal with estimation problems of latent variables. One appeared to be particularly interesting. It proposes the estimator that in contrast to the other methods requires neither discretization nor simulation of the process: the Continuous Empirical Characteristic function estimator (EGF) based on the unconditional characteristic function. However, the procedure was derived only for the stochastic volatility models without jumps. Thus, it has become the subject of my research. This thesis consists of three parts. Each one is written as independent and self contained article. At the same time, questions that are answered by the second and third parts of this Work arise naturally from the issues investigated and results obtained in the first one. The first chapter is the theoretical foundation of the thesis. It proposes an estimation procedure for the stochastic volatility models with jumps both in the asset price and variance processes. The estimation procedure is based on the joint unconditional characteristic function for the stochastic process. The major analytical result of this part as well as of the whole thesis is the closed form expression for the joint unconditional characteristic function for the stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models. The empirical part of the chapter suggests that besides a stochastic volatility, jumps both in the mean and the volatility equation are relevant for modelling returns of the S&P500 index, which has been chosen as a general representative of the stock asset class. Hence, the next question is: what jump process to use to model returns of the S&P500. The decision about the jump process in the framework of the affine jump- diffusion models boils down to defining the intensity of the compound Poisson process, a constant or some function of state variables, and to choosing the distribution of the jump size. While the jump in the variance process is usually assumed to be exponential, there are at least three distributions of the jump size which are currently used for the asset log-prices: normal, exponential and double exponential. The second part of this thesis shows that normal jumps in the asset log-returns should be used if we are to model S&P500 index by a stochastic volatility jump-diffusion model. This is a surprising result. Exponential distribution has fatter tails and for this reason either exponential or double exponential jump size was expected to provide the best it of the stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models to the data. The idea of testing the efficiency of the Continuous ECF estimator on the simulated data has already appeared when the first estimation results of the first chapter were obtained. In the absence of a benchmark or any ground for comparison it is unreasonable to be sure that our parameter estimates and the true parameters of the models coincide. The conclusion of the second chapter provides one more reason to do that kind of test. Thus, the third part of this thesis concentrates on the estimation of parameters of stochastic volatility jump- diffusion models on the basis of the asset price time-series simulated from various "true" parameter sets. The goal is to show that the Continuous ECF estimator based on the joint unconditional characteristic function is capable of finding the true parameters. And, the third chapter proves that our estimator indeed has the ability to do so. Once it is clear that the Continuous ECF estimator based on the unconditional characteristic function is working, the next question does not wait to appear. The question is whether the computation effort can be reduced without affecting the efficiency of the estimator, or whether the efficiency of the estimator can be improved without dramatically increasing the computational burden. The efficiency of the Continuous ECF estimator depends on the number of dimensions of the joint unconditional characteristic function which is used for its construction. Theoretically, the more dimensions there are, the more efficient is the estimation procedure. In practice, however, this relationship is not so straightforward due to the increasing computational difficulties. The second chapter, for example, in addition to the choice of the jump process, discusses the possibility of using the marginal, i.e. one-dimensional, unconditional characteristic function in the estimation instead of the joint, bi-dimensional, unconditional characteristic function. As result, the preference for one or the other depends on the model to be estimated. Thus, the computational effort can be reduced in some cases without affecting the efficiency of the estimator. The improvement of the estimator s efficiency by increasing its dimensionality faces more difficulties. The third chapter of this thesis, in addition to what was discussed above, compares the performance of the estimators with bi- and three-dimensional unconditional characteristic functions on the simulated data. It shows that the theoretical efficiency of the Continuous ECF estimator based on the three-dimensional unconditional characteristic function is not attainable in practice, at least for the moment, due to the limitations on the computer power and optimization toolboxes available to the general public. Thus, the Continuous ECF estimator based on the joint, bi-dimensional, unconditional characteristic function has all the reasons to exist and to be used for the estimation of parameters of the stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models.
Resumo:
Determination of the precise composition and variation of microbiota in cystic fibrosis lungs is crucial since chronic inflammation due to microorganisms leads to lung damage and ultimately, death. However, this constitutes a major technical challenge. Culturing of microorganisms does not provide a complete representation of a microbiota, even when using culturomics (high-throughput culture). So far, only PCR-based metagenomics have been investigated. However, these methods are biased towards certain microbial groups, and suffer from uncertain quantification of the different microbial domains. We have explored whole genome sequencing (WGS) using the Illumina high-throughput technology applied directly to DNA extracted from sputa obtained from two cystic fibrosis patients. To detect all microorganism groups, we used four procedures for DNA extraction, each with a different lysis protocol. We avoided biases due to whole DNA amplification thanks to the high efficiency of current Illumina technology. Phylogenomic classification of the reads by three different methods produced similar results. Our results suggest that WGS provides, in a single analysis, a better qualitative and quantitative assessment of microbiota compositions than cultures and PCRs. WGS identified a high quantity of Haemophilus spp. (patient 1) or Staphylococcus spp. plus Streptococcus spp. (patient 2) together with low amounts of anaerobic (Veillonella, Prevotella, Fusobacterium) and aerobic bacteria (Gemella, Moraxella, Granulicatella). WGS suggested that fungal members represented very low proportions of the microbiota, which were detected by cultures and PCRs because of their selectivity. The future increase of reads' sizes and decrease in cost should ensure the usefulness of WGS for the characterisation of microbiota.
Resumo:
The quadrennial need study was developed to assist in identifying county highway financial needs (construction, rehabilitation, maintenance, and administration) and in the distribution of the road use tax fund (RUTF) among the counties in the state. During the period since the need study was first conducted using HWYNEEDS software, between 1982 and 1998, there have been large fluctuations in the level of funds distributed to individual counties. A recent study performed by Jim Cable (HR-363, 1993), found that one of the major factors affecting the volatility in the level of fluctuations is the quality of the pavement condition data collected and the accuracy of these data. In 1998, the Center for Transportation Research and Education researchers (Maze and Smadi) completed a project to study the feasibility of using automated pavement condition data collected for the Iowa Pavement Management Program (IPMP) for the paved county roads to be used in the HWYNEEDS software (TR-418). The automated condition data are objective and also more current since they are collected in a two year cycle compared to the 10-year cycle used by HWYNEEDS right now. The study proved the use of the automated condition data in HWYNEEDS would be feasible and beneficial in educing fluctuations when applied to a pilot study area. In another recommendation from TR-418, the researchers recommended a full analysis and investigation of HWYNEEDS methodology and parameters (for more information on the project, please review the TR-418 project report). The study reported in this document builds on the previous study on using the automated condition data in HWYNEEDS and covers the analysis and investigation of the HWYNEEDS computer program methodology and parameters. The underlying hypothesis for this study is thatalong with the IPMP automated condition data, some changes need to be made to HWYNEEDS parameters to accommodate the use of the new data, which will stabilize the process of allocating resources and reduce fluctuations from one quadrennial need study to another. Another objective of this research is to investigate the gravel roads needs and study the feasibility of developing a more objective approach to determining needs on the counties gravel road network. This study identifies new procedures by which the HWYNEEDS computer program is used to conduct the quadrennial needs study on paved roads. Also, a new procedure will be developed to determine gravel roads needs outside of the HWYNEED program. Recommendations are identified for the new procedures and also in terms of making changes to the current quadrennial need study. Future research areas are also identified.
Resumo:
Con este trabajo revisamos los Modelos de niveles de las tasas de intereses en Chile. Además de los Modelos de Nivel tradicionales por Chan, Karoly, Longstaff y Lijadoras (1992) en EE. UU, y Parisi (1998) en Chile, por el método de Probabilidad Maximun permitimos que la volatilidad condicional también incluya los procesos inesperados de la información (el modelo GARCH ) y también que la volatilidad sea la función del nivel de la tasa de intereses (modelo TVP-NIVELE) como en Brenner, Harjes y la Crona (1996). Para esto usamos producciones de mercado de bonos de reconocimiento, en cambio las producciones mensuales medias de subasta PDBC, y la ampliación del tamaño y la frecuencia de la muestra a 4 producciones semanales con términos(condiciones) diferentes a la madurez: 1 año, 5 años, 10 años y 15 años. Los resultados principales del estudio pueden ser resumidos en esto: la volatilidad de los cambios inesperados de las tarifas depende positivamente del nivel de las tarifas, sobre todo en el modelo de TVP-NIVEL. Obtenemos pruebas de reversión tacañas, tal que los incrementos en las tasas de intereses no eran independientes, contrariamente a lo obtenido por Brenner. en EE. UU. Los modelos de NIVELES no son capaces de ajustar apropiadamente la volatilidad en comparación con un modelo GARCH (1,1), y finalmente, el modelo de TVP-NIVEL no vence los resultados del modelo GARCH (1,1)
Resumo:
In this work the valuation methodology of compound option written on a downand-out call option, developed by Ericsson and Reneby (2003), has been applied to deduce a credit risk model. It is supposed that the firm has a debt structure with two maturity dates and that the credit event takes place when the assets firm value falls under a determined level called barrier. An empirical application of the model for 105 firms of Spanish continuous market is carried out. For each one of them its value in the date of analysis, the volatility and the critical value are obtained and from these, the default probability to short and long-term and the implicit probability in the two previous probabilities are deduced. The results are compared with the ones obtained from the Geskemodel (1977).
Resumo:
During infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), immune pressure from cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) selects for viral mutants that confer escape from CTL recognition. These escape variants can be transmitted between individuals where, depending upon their cost to viral fitness and the CTL responses made by the recipient, they may revert. The rates of within-host evolution and their concordant impact upon the rate of spread of escape mutants at the population level are uncertain. Here we present a mathematical model of within-host evolution of escape mutants, transmission of these variants between hosts and subsequent reversion in new hosts. The model is an extension of the well-known SI model of disease transmission and includes three further parameters that describe host immunogenetic heterogeneity and rates of within host viral evolution. We use the model to explain why some escape mutants appear to have stable prevalence whilst others are spreading through the population. Further, we use it to compare diverse datasets on CTL escape, highlighting where different sources agree or disagree on within-host evolutionary rates. The several dozen CTL epitopes we survey from HIV-1 gag, RT and nef reveal a relatively sedate rate of evolution with average rates of escape measured in years and reversion in decades. For many epitopes in HIV, occasional rapid within-host evolution is not reflected in fast evolution at the population level.
Resumo:
[cat] Com afecten l’obertura comercial i financera a la volatilitat macroeconòmica? La literatura existent, tant empírica com teòrica, no ha assolit encara un consens. Aquest article usa un model microfonamentat de dos països simètrics amb entrada endògena d’empreses per estudiar-ho. L’anàlisis es du a terme per tres règims econòmics diferents amb diferents nivells d’integració internacional: una economia tancada, una autarquia financera i una integració plena. Es consideren diversos nivells d’obertura comercial, en forma de biaix domèstic de la demanda i l’economia pot patir pertorbacions en la productivitat del treball i en innovació. El model conclou que la incertesa macroeconòmica, representada principalment per la volatilitat del consum, la producció i la relació real d’intercanvi internacional, depèn del grau d’obertura i del tipus de pertorbació.
Resumo:
Diagnostic laparoscopy is useful in the evaluation of patients with lower right quadrant pain when the diagnosis is uncertain. The object of this study was to determine whether a normal appendix should be routinely removed at laparoscopy. We have decided to do this in children, men under the age of 30 and women of childbearing age. However we do not perform appendectomy in men over the age of 30, women over 50 and in immunodeficient patients. This is a working hypothesis and is the basis of an on-going prospective study in our unit
Resumo:
The present paper focuses on the analysis and discussion of a likelihood ratio (LR) development for propositions at a hierarchical level known in the context as 'offence level'. Existing literature on the topic has considered LR developments for so-called offender to scene transfer cases. These settings involve-in their simplest form-a single stain found on a crime scene, but with possible uncertainty about the degree to which that stain is relevant (i.e. that it has been left by the offender). Extensions to multiple stains or multiple offenders have also been reported. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a development of a LR for offence level propositions when case settings involve potential transfer in the opposite direction, i.e. victim/scene to offender transfer. This setting has previously not yet been considered. The rationale behind the proposed LR is illustrated through graphical probability models (i.e. Bayesian networks). The role of various uncertain parameters is investigated through sensitivity analyses as well as simulations.
Resumo:
Canine distemper virus (CDV), a mobillivirus related to measles virus causes a chronic progressive demyelinating disease, associated with persistence of the virus in the central nervous system (CNS). CNS persistence of morbilliviruses has been associated with cell-to-cell spread, thereby limiting immune detection. The mechanism of cell-to-cell spread remains uncertain. In the present study we studied viral spread comparing a cytolytic (non-persistent) and a persistent CDV strain in cell cultures. Cytolytic CDV spread in a compact concentric manner with extensive cell fusion and destruction of the monolayer. Persistent CDV exhibited a heterogeneous cell-to-cell pattern of spread without cell fusion and 100-fold reduction of infectious viral titers in supernatants as compared to the cytolytic strain. Ultrastructurally, low infectious titers correlated with limited budding of persistent CDV as compared to the cytolytic strain, which shed large numbers of viral particles. The pattern of heterogeneous cell-to-cell viral spread can be explained by low production of infectious viral particles in only few areas of the cell membrane. In this way persistent CDV only spreads to a small proportion of the cells surrounding an infected one. Our studies suggest that both cell-to-cell spread and limited production of infectious virus are related to reduced expression of fusogenic complexes in the cell membrane. Such complexes consist of a synergistic configuration of the attachment (H) and fusion (F) proteins on the cell surface. F und H proteins exhibited a marked degree of colocalization in cytolytic CDV infection but not in persistent CDV as seen by confocal laser microscopy. In addition, analysis of CDV F protein expression using vaccinia constructs of both strains revealed an additional large fraction of uncleaved fusion protein in the persistent strain. This suggests that the paucity of active fusion complexes is due to restricted intracellular processing of the viral fusion protein.
Resumo:
PURPOSE: Mutations within the KRAS proto-oncogene have predictive value but are of uncertain prognostic value in the treatment of advanced colorectal cancer. We took advantage of PETACC-3, an adjuvant trial with 3,278 patients with stage II to III colon cancer, to evaluate the prognostic value of KRAS and BRAF tumor mutation status in this setting. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue blocks (n = 1,564) were prospectively collected and DNA was extracted from tissue sections from 1,404 cases. Planned analysis of KRAS exon 2 and BRAF exon 15 mutations was performed by allele-specific real-time polymerase chain reaction. Survival analyses were based on univariate and multivariate proportional hazard regression models. RESULTS: KRAS and BRAF tumor mutation rates were 37.0% and 7.9%, respectively, and were not significantly different according to tumor stage. In a multivariate analysis containing stage, tumor site, nodal status, sex, age, grade, and microsatellite instability (MSI) status, KRAS mutation was associated with grade (P = .0016), while BRAF mutation was significantly associated with female sex (P = .017), and highly significantly associated with right-sided tumors, older age, high grade, and MSI-high tumors (all P < 10(-4)). In univariate and multivariate analysis, KRAS mutations did not have a major prognostic value regarding relapse-free survival (RFS) or overall survival (OS). BRAF mutation was not prognostic for RFS, but was for OS, particularly in patients with MSI-low (MSI-L) and stable (MSI-S) tumors (hazard ratio, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.4 to 3.4; P = .0003). CONCLUSION: In stage II-III colon cancer, the KRAS mutation status does not have major prognostic value. BRAF is prognostic for OS in MS-L/S tumors.
Resumo:
Background: Ulcerative colitis (UC) is a chronic disease with a wide variety of treatment options many of which are not evidence based. Supplementing available guidelines, which are often broadly defined, consensus-based and generally not tailored to specifically reflect the individual patient situation, we developed explicit appropriateness criteria to assist, and improve treatment decisions. Methods: We used the RAND appropriateness method which does not force consensus. An extensive literature review was compiled based on and supplementing, where necessary, the ECCO UC 2011 guidelines. EPATUC (endorsed by ECCO) was formed by 7 gastroenterologists, 2 surgeons and 2 general practitioners from throughout Europe. Clinical scenarios reflecting practice were rated on a 9-point scale from 1 (extremely inappropriate) to 9 (extremely appropriate), based on the expert's experience and the available literature. After extensive discussion, all scenarios were re-rated at a two-day panel meeting. Median and disagreement (D) were used to categorize ratings into 3 categories: appropriate (A), uncertain (U) and inappropriate (I). Results: 718 clinical scenarios were rated, structured in 13 main clinical presentations: not refractory (n = 64) or refractory (n = 33) proctitis, mild to moderate left-sided (n = 72) or extensive (n = 48) colitis, severe colitis (n = 36), steroid- dependant colitis (n = 36), steroid-refractory colitis (n = 55), acute pouchitis (n = 96), maintenance of remission (n = 248), colorectal cancer prevention (n = 9) and fulminant colitis (n = 9). Overall, 100 indications were judged appropriate (14%), 129 uncertain (18%) and 489 inappropriate (68%). Disagreement between experts was very low (6%). Conclusions: For the very first time, explicit appropriateness criteria for therapy of UC were developed that allow both specific and rapid therapeutic decision making and prospective assessment of treatment appropriateness. Comparison of these detailed scenarios with patient profiles encountered in the Swiss IBD cohort study indicates good concordance. EPATUC criteria will be freely accessible on the internet (epatuc.ch)