Systemic risk in dynamical networks with stochastic failure criterion

Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erdos-Renyi network models where each node, representing a bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use a dynamical network approach to evaluate the collective financial failure -systemic risk- quantified by the fraction of active nodes. The systemic risk can be calculated over any future time period, divided into sub-periods, where within each sub-period banks may contiguously fail due to links to either i) assets or ii) other banks, controlled by two parameters, probability of internal failure p and threshold T-h ("solvency" parameter). The systemic risk decreases with the average network degree faster when all assets are equally distributed across banks than if assets are randomly distributed. The more inactive banks each bank can sustain (smaller T-h), the smaller the systemic risk -for some Th values in I we report a discontinuity in systemic risk. When contiguous spreading becomes stochastic ii) controlled by probability p(2) -a condition for the bank to be solvent (active) is stochasticthe- systemic risk decreases with decreasing p(2). We analyse the asset allocation for the U.S. banks. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2014

CHARACTERIZATION OF THE BRAZPD II COHORT AND DESCRIPTION OF TRENDS IN PERITONEAL DIALYSIS OUTCOME ACROSS TIME PERIODS

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effect of sublethal doses of the insecticide imidacloprid on adaptive traits of Drosophila melanogaster: Response to treatment over and after 15 consecutive generations

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Color stability of a nanofilled resin: influence of polishing and finishing and fluoride solutions according to time

Aim: The aim of the study was evaluate the finishing and polishing effect of the color stability of the composite resin Filtek Supreme XT, according to different fluoride solutions and time. Material and Methods: Specimens were prepared (n=140) with half of the samples finished and polished. The experimental groups were divided according to the presence or absence of finishing and polishing and immersion solutions (artificial saliva, sodium fluoride solution at 0.05% - manipulated, Fluordent Reach, Oral B, Fluorgard). The specimens remained in artificial saliva for 24 hours and were subjected to an initial color analysis using a spectrophotometer CIELab system. Then, they were immersed in the experimental solutions for 1 minute a day. The readings of the color change were made after 24 and 48 hours, 7, 14, 21, 30 and 60 days after the first immersion. The three-way mixed Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) ("finishing/polishing", "immersion medium" and “time”) were performed. For multiple comparisons, the Sidak test for repeated measure was used, with a 5% level of significance. Results: The finishing and polishing factor showed significant variability, independently of the immersion media (p<0.001). Cconclusion: Finishing and polishing procedures yielded better color stability to composite resin over time, regardless of the immersion media.

Roughness and morphology of composites: influence of type of material, fluoride solution, and time

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Peritoneal dialysis in acute kidney injury: trends in the outcome across time periods

Peritoneal dialysis (PD) should be considered a suitable method of renal replacement therapy in acute kidney injury (AKI) patients. This study is the largest cohort providing patient characteristics, clinical practice, patterns and their relationship to outcomes in a developing country. Its objective was to describe the main determinants of patient and technique survival, including trends over time of PD treatment in AKI patients. This was a Brazilian prospective cohort study in which all adult AKI patients on PD were studied from January/2004 to January/2014. For comparison purposes, patients were divided into 2 groups according to the year of treatment: 2004-2008 and 2009-2014. Patient survival and technique failure (TF) were analyzed using the competing risk model of Fine and Gray. A total of 301 patients were included, 51 were transferred to hemodialysis (16.9%) during the study period. The main cause of TF was mechanical complication (47%) followed by peritonitis (41.2%). There was change in TF during the study period: compared to 2004-2008, patients treated at 2009-2014 had relative risk (RR) reduction of 0.86 (95% CI 0.77-0.96) and three independent risk factors were identified: period of treatment at 2009 and 2014, sepsis and age>65 years. There were 180 deaths (59.8%) during the study. Death was the leading cause of dropout (77.9% of all cases) mainly by sepsis (58.3%), followed cardiovascular disease (36.1%). The overall patient survival was 41% at 30 days. Patient survival improved along study periods: compared to 2004-2008, patients treated at 2009-2014 had a RR reduction of 0.87 (95% CI 0.79-0.98). The independent risk factors for mortality were sepsis, age>70 years, ATN-ISS > 0.65 and positive fluid balance. As conclusion, we observed an improvement in patient survival and TF along the years even after correction for several confounders and using a competing risk approach.