The economic voter and economic crisis

Theories of economic voting have a long tradition in political science and continue to inspire a large group of scholars. Classical economic voting theory assumes a reward-and-punishment mechanism (Key, 1966). This mechanism implies that incumbents are more likely to stay in power under a good economy, but are cast out under a bad economy (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier, 2000). The economy has repeatedly been shown to be a major determinant of electoral behavior (see especially the recent book by Duch and Stevenson, 2008), but the current economic crisis seems to provide a marked illustration of how the economy affects voting. In recent elections across the Western industrialized world, most ruling coalitions lost their majority. Opposition parties, on the other hand, whether right wing or left wing, have appeared to benefit from the economic downturn.

Race, Power and Economic Extraction in Benton Harbor, MI

My dissertation investigates twin financial interventions—urban development and emergency management—in a single small town. Once a thriving city drawing blacks as blue-collar workers during the Great Migration, Benton Harbor, Michigan has suffered from waves of out-migration, debt, and alleged poor management. Benton Harbor’s emphasis on high-end economic development to attract white-collar workers and tourism, amidst the poverty, unemployment, and disenfranchisement of black residents, highlights an extreme case of American urban inequality. At the same time, many bystanders and representative observers argue that this urban redevelopment scheme and the city’s takeover by the state represent Benton Harbor residents’ only hope for a better life. I interviewed 44 key players and observers in local politics and development, attended 20 public meetings, conducted three months of observations, and collected extensive archival data. Examining Benton Harbor’s time under emergency management and its luxury golf course development as two exemplars of a larger relationship, I find that the top-down processes allegedly intended to alleviate Benton Harbor’s inequality actually reproduce and deepen the city’s problems. I propose that the beneficiaries of both plans constitute a white urban regime active in Benton Harbor. I show how the white urban regime serves its interests by operating an extraction machine in the city, which serves to reproduce local poverty and wealth by directing resources toward the white urban regime and away from the city.

A recessionary debate: who suffered more? A study of sectoral well-being and economic insecurity in Ireland

The aim of this thesis is to identify the relationship between subjective well-being and economic insecurity for public and private sector workers in Ireland using the European Social Survey 2010-2012. Life satisfaction and job satisfaction are the indicators used to measure subjective well-being. Economic insecurity is approximated by regional unemployment rates and self-perceived job insecurity. Potential sample selection bias and endogeneity bias are accounted for. It is traditionally believed that public sector workers are relatively more protected against insecurity due to very institution of public sector employment. The institution of public sector employment is made up of stricter dismissal practices (Luechinger et al., 2010a) and less volatile employment (Freeman, 1987) where workers are subsequently less likely to be affected by business cycle downturns (Clark and Postal-Vinay, 2009). It is found in the literature that economic insecurity depresses the well-being of public sector workers to a lesser degree than private sector workers (Luechinger et al., 2010a; Artz and Kaya, 2014). These studies provide the rationale for this thesis in testing for similar relationships in an Irish context. Sample selection bias arises when a selection into a particular category is not random (Heckman, 1979). An example of this is non-random selection into public sector employment based on personal characteristics (Heckman, 1979; Luechinger et al., 2010b). If selection into public sector employment is not corrected for this can lead to biased and inconsistent estimators (Gujarati, 2009). Selection bias of public sector employment is corrected for by using a standard Two-Step Heckman Probit OLS estimation method. Following Luechinger et al. (2010b), the propensity for individuals to select into public sector employment is estimated by a binomial probit model with the inclusion of the additional regressor Irish citizenship. Job satisfaction is then estimated by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) with the inclusion of a sample correction term similar as is done in Clark (1997). Endogeneity is where an independent variable included in the model is determined within in the context of the model (Chenhall and Moers, 2007). The econometric definition states that an endogenous independent variable is one that is correlated with the error term (Wooldridge, 2010). Endogeneity is expected to be present due to a simultaneous relationship between job insecurity and job satisfaction whereby both variables are jointly determined (Theodossiou and Vasileiou, 2007). Simultaneity, as an instigator of endogeneity, is corrected for using Instrumental Variables (IV) techniques. Limited Information Methods and Full Information Methods of estimation of simultaneous equations models are assed and compared. The general results show that job insecurity depresses the subjective well-being of all workers in both the public and private sectors in Ireland. The magnitude of this effect differs among sectoral workers. The subjective well-being of private sector workers is more adversely affected by job insecurity than the subjective well-being of public sector workers. This is observed in basic ordered probit estimations of both a life satisfaction equation and a job satisfaction equation. The marginal effects from the ordered probit estimation of a basic job satisfaction equation show that as job insecurity increases the probability of reporting a 9 on a 10-point job satisfaction scale significantly decreases by 3.4% for the whole sample of workers, 2.8% for public sector workers and 4.0% for private sector workers. Artz and Kaya (2014) explain that as a result of many austerity policies implemented to reduce government expenditure during the economic recession, workers in the public sector may for the first time face worsening perceptions of job security which can have significant implications for their well-being (Artz and Kaya, 2014). This can be observed in the marginal effects where job insecurity negatively impacts the well-being of public sector workers in Ireland. However, in accordance with Luechinger et al. (2010a) the results show that private sector workers are more adversely impacted by economic insecurity than public sector workers. This suggests that in a time of high economic volatility, the institution of public sector employment held and was able to protect workers against some of the well-being consequences of rising insecurity. In estimating the relationship between subjective well-being and economic insecurity advanced econometric issues arise. The results show that when selection bias is corrected for, any statistically significant relationship between job insecurity and job satisfaction disappears for public sector workers. Additionally, in order to correct for endogeneity bias the simultaneous equations model for job satisfaction and job insecurity is estimated by Limited Information and Full Information Methods. The results from two different estimators classified as Limited Information Methods support the general findings of this research. Moreover, the magnitude of the endogeneity-corrected estimates are twice as large as those not corrected for endogeneity bias which is similarly found in Geishecker (2010, 2012). As part of the analysis into the effect of economic insecurity on subjective well-being, the effects of other socioeconomic variables and work-related variables are examined for public and private sector workers in Ireland.

Rwanda's Miracle: From Genocide and Poverty to Peace and Economic Prosperity

The purpose of this thesis was to examine how liberalization and the introduction of pro-poor policies can be successful in post-conflict countries using the Rwanda coffee market as a case study. My research supports the notion that economic development, political stability and peace can be a result of liberalization when policies that are pro-poor and focus on the largest sector of the population are created. The study examines why and how Rwanda chose to liberalize their economy in the way they did by focusing on the intentions of the actors and the effects their actions have had on the coffee market and country as a whole. The findings suggest that Rwanda’s coffee market liberalization has been successful and has contributed to stability and economic development in Rwanda. The conclusion indicates that pro-poor liberalization policies with the assistance from a variety of actors and institutions can lead developing countries on the path to development in ways the international community has not seen before.

The Causal Links between FDI and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Case Study of the Republic of Rwanda

The study examines the short-run and long-run causality running from real economic growth to real foreign direct investment inflows (RFDI). Other variables such as education (involving combination of primary, secondary and tertiary enrolment as a proxy to education), real development finance, unskilled labour, to real RFDI inflows are included in the study. The time series data covering the period of 1983 -2013 are examined. First, I applied Augmented Dicky-Fuller (ADF) technique to test for unit root in variables. Findings shows all variables integrated of order one [I(1)]. Thereafter, Johansen Co-integration Test (JCT) was conducted to establish the relationship among variables. Both trace and maximum Eigen value at 5% level of significance indicate 3 co-integrated equations. Vector error correction method (VECM) was applied to capture short and long-run causality running from education, economic growth, real development finance, and unskilled labour to real foreign direct investment inflows in the Republic of Rwanda. Findings shows no short-run causality running from education, real development finance, real GDP and unskilled labour to real FDI inflows, however there were existence of long-run causality. This can be interpreted that, in the short-run; education, development finance, finance and economic growth does not influence inflows of foreign direct investment in Rwanda; but it does in long-run. From the policy perspective, the Republic of Rwanda should focus more on long term goal of investing in education to improve human capital, undertake policy reforms that promotes economic growth, in addition to promoting good governance to attract development finance – especially from Nordics countries (particularly Norway and Denmark).

The technical and artistic branches and ways of organizing production in Argentine soap operas

Production processes and work organization in the cultural industries have been little discussed. For this reason, the study focuses on the production phases and the division of labor in technical and artistic branches in Argentine soap operas. There are six branches: production, direction, photography, art, sound and edition. We explain the branches, the workers involved and their function and activities. This research is based on a communicational perspective, the Political Economy of Communication and recovers contributions of the Sociology of Labour. From this combination, we attempt to provide elements of analysis to understand the functioning and organisation of daily television series. In the same way, we examine the creative work, the types of work redundant or random, the division of labour and the economies of time. The methodological approach is qualitative. In this way, the examination is based on the production of interviews with key actors of the sector and the documentary and bibliographical survey so as to systematize the data for the research.

The impact of political and economic crisis on the polarization of the Spanish media

In this paper the characteristics of the cyclical political polarization of the Spanish media system are defined. From this study, a prospective analysis raises doubts about this scenario remains unchanged because of the political and economic crisis. It seeks to define the role played by political and media actors in polarization focusing on the two legislatures where the tension reached higher levels (1993-1996 and 2004-2008) and compares it with the developments faced by them in the current economical and political context of crisis. To achieve these aims, it has been performed an analysis of media content (since 1993) and looked through primary sociological sources and the scientific literature about polarization. This is an exploratory, critical and descriptive case analysis.

A state-of-the-art review and feasibility analysis of high altitude wind power in Northern Ireland

In many countries wind energy has become an indispensable part of the electricity generation mix. The opportunity for ground based wind turbine systems are becoming more and more constrained due to limitations on turbine hub heights, blade lengths and location restrictions linked to environmental and permitting issues including special areas of conservation and social acceptance due to the visual and noise impacts. In the last decade there have been numerous proposals to harness high altitude winds, such as tethered kites, airfoils and dirigible based rotors. These technologies are designed to operate above the neutral atmospheric boundary layer of 1,300 m, which are subject to more powerful and persistent winds thus generating much higher electricity capacities. This paper presents an in-depth review of the state-of-the-art of high altitude wind power, evaluates the technical and economic viability of deploying high altitude wind power as a resource in Northern Ireland and identifies the optimal locations through considering wind data and geographical constraints. The key findings show that the total viable area over Northern Ireland for high altitude wind harnessing devices is 5109.6 km2, with an average wind power density of 1,998 W/m2 over a 20-year span, at a fixed altitude of 3,000 m. An initial budget for a 2MW pumping kite device indicated a total cost £1,751,402 thus proving to be economically viable with other conventional wind-harnessing devices.

Sepsis: the LightCycler SeptiFast Test MGRADE®, SepsiTest™ and IRIDICA BAC BSI assay for rapidly identifying bloodstream bacteria and fungi – a systematic review and economic evaluation

Background: Sepsis can lead to multiple organ failure and death. Timely and appropriate treatment can reduce in-hospital mortality and morbidity. Objectives: To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of three tests [LightCycler SeptiFast Test MGRADE® (Roche Diagnostics, Risch-Rotkreuz, Switzerland); SepsiTest™ (Molzym Molecular Diagnostics, Bremen, Germany); and the IRIDICA BAC BSI assay (Abbott Diagnostics, Lake Forest, IL, USA)] for the rapid identification of bloodstream bacteria and fungi in patients with suspected sepsis compared with standard practice (blood culture with or without matrix-absorbed laser desorption/ionisation time-offlight mass spectrometry). Data sources: Thirteen electronic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library) were searched from January 2006 to May 2015 and supplemented by hand-searching relevant articles. Review methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis of effectiveness studies were conducted. A review of published economic analyses was undertaken and a de novo health economic model was constructed. A decision tree was used to estimate the costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with each test; all other parameters were estimated from published sources. The model was populated with evidence from the systematic review or individual studies, if this was considered more appropriate (base case 1). In a secondary analysis, estimates (based on experience and opinion) from seven clinicians regarding the benefits of earlier test results were sought (base case 2). A NHS and Personal Social Services perspective was taken, and costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% per annum. Scenario analyses were used to assess uncertainty. Results: For the review of diagnostic test accuracy, 62 studies of varying methodological quality were included. A meta-analysis of 54 studies comparing SeptiFast with blood culture found that SeptiFast had an estimated summary specificity of 0.86 [95% credible interval (CrI) 0.84 to 0.89] and sensitivity of 0.65 (95% CrI 0.60 to 0.71). Four studies comparing SepsiTest with blood culture found that SepsiTest had an estimated summary specificity of 0.86 (95% CrI 0.78 to 0.92) and sensitivity of 0.48 (95% CrI 0.21 to 0.74), and four studies comparing IRIDICA with blood culture found that IRIDICA had an estimated summary specificity of 0.84 (95% CrI 0.71 to 0.92) and sensitivity of 0.81 (95% CrI 0.69 to 0.90). Owing to the deficiencies in study quality for all interventions, diagnostic accuracy data should be treated with caution. No randomised clinical trial evidence was identified that indicated that any of the tests significantly improved key patient outcomes, such as mortality or duration in an intensive care unit or hospital. Base case 1 estimated that none of the three tests provided a benefit to patients compared with standard practice and thus all tests were dominated. In contrast, in base case 2 it was estimated that all cost per QALY-gained values were below £20,000; the IRIDICA BAC BSI assay had the highest estimated incremental net benefit, but results from base case 2 should be treated with caution as these are not evidence based. Limitations: Robust data to accurately assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions are currently unavailable. Conclusions: The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions cannot be reliably determined with the current evidence base. Appropriate studies, which allow information from the tests to be implemented in clinical practice, are required.

National incomes and economic growth in pre-industrial Europe: insights from recent research

Pessimistic Malthusian verdicts on the capacity of pre-industrial European economies to sustain a degree of real economic growth under conditions of population growth are challenged using current reconstructions of urbanisation ratios, the real wage rates of building and agricultural labourers, and GDP per capita estimated by a range of methods. Economic growth is shown to have outpaced population growth and raised GDP per capita to in excess of $1,500 (1990 $ international at PPP) in Italy during its twelfth- and thirteenth-century commercial revolution, Holland during its fifteenth- and sixteenth-century golden age, and England during the seventeenth- and eighteenth-century runup to its industrial revolution. During each of these Smithian growth episodes expanding trade and commerce sustained significant output and employment growth in the manufacturing and service sectors. These positive developments were not necessarily reflected by trends in real wage rates for the latter were powerfully influenced by associated changes in relative factor prices and the per capita supply of labour as workers varied the length of the working year in order to consume either more leisure or more goods. The scale of the divergence between trends in real wage rates and GDP per capita nevertheless varied a great deal between countries for reasons which have yet to be adequately explained.

Studies on Bio-Geochemistry, Bio-Optical Properties and Satellite Validation of Coastal Waters of South Eastern Arabian Sea

In situ methods used for water quality assessment have both physical and time constraints. Just a limited number of sampling points can be performed due to this, making it difficult to capture the range and variability of coastal processes and constituents. In addition, the mixing between fresh and oceanic water creates complex physical, chemical and biological environment that are difficult to understand, causing the existing measurement methodologies to have significant logistical, technical, and economic challenges and constraints. Remote sensing of ocean colour makes it possible to acquire information on the distribution of chlorophyll and other constituents over large areas of the oceans in short periods. There are many potential applications of ocean colour data. Satellite-derived products are a key data source to study the distribution pattern of organisms and nutrients (Guillaud et al. 2008) and fishery research (Pillai and Nair 2010; Solanki et al. 2001. Also, the study of spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton blooms, red tide identification or harmful algal blooms monitoring (Sarangi et al. 2001; Sarangi et al. 2004; Sarangi et al. 2005; Bhagirathan et al., 2014), river plume or upwelling assessments (Doxaran et al. 2002; Sravanthi et al. 2013), global productivity analyses (Platt et al. 1988; Sathyendranath et al. 1995; IOCCG2006) and oil spill detection (Maianti et al. 2014). For remote sensing to be accurate in the complex coastal waters, it has to be validated with the in situ measured values. In this thesis an attempt to study, measure and validate the complex waters with the help of satellite data has been done. Monitoring of coastal ecosystem health of Arabian Sea in a synoptic way requires an intense, extensive and continuous monitoring of the water quality indicators. Phytoplankton determined from chl-a concentration, is considered as an indicator of the state of the coastal ecosystems. Currently, satellite sensors provide the most effective means for frequent, synoptic, water-quality observations over large areas and represent a potential tool to effectively assess chl-a concentration over coastal and oceanic waters; however, algorithms designed to estimate chl-a at global scales have been shown to be less accurate in Case 2 waters, due to the presence of water constituents other than phytoplankton which do not co-vary with the phytoplankton. The constituents of Arabian Sea coastal waters are region-specific because of the inherent variability of these optically-active substances affected by factors such as riverine input (e.g. suspended matter type and grain size, CDOM) and phytoplankton composition associated with seasonal changes.

Financialisation, Capital Accumulation and Economic Development : A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation of the Nigerian Economy

The primary focus of this study is to highlight those unobtrusive, yet fundamental, factors undermining economic development in Nigeria. To begin with, it posits that the decelerating pace of capital accumulation in Nigeria, which naturally occasions rising unemployment and poverty levels, and widening inequality gap, is the result of the ‘low possibility’ of capitalist enterprises in the country of earning an adequate rate of profit from their productive processes. In turn, the ‘low possibility’ is argued to be the result of the uneven development inherent in the modern capitalist structure, the high cost of capital and of production peculiar to Nigeria, and the ineffective demand for goods made in Nigeria: these elements are viewed as been precipitated by the contradictions of the contemporary political-economic arrangement that organises the Social Structures of Accumulation. For Nigeria to ‘develop’, it is contended that the unobtrusive elements inherent in the contradiction of the political-economic economic that undermine the capitalists’ ability to earn a commensurate rate of profit in the country needs to be fully addressed first. Furthermore, this study suggests that it is crucial the country embraces knowledge-based industrialisation if it is to achieve some form of ‘competitive advantage’ in the global market, which could enable its productive processes extract a commensurate level of profit from the market. To facilitate the knowledge-based industrialisation, the state should, not only create a conducive environment for industrial development but also play the lead role in transforming the peripheral and oil dependent economy to a knowledge-based economy by coordinating business organisations and investing in high-risk innovations.

Hydrological and economic effects of oil palm cultivation in Indonesian peatlands

Oil palm has increasingly been established on peatlands throughout Indonesia. One of the concerns is that the drainage required for cultivating oil palm in peatlands leads to soil subsidence, potentially increasing future flood risks. This study analyzes the hydrological and economic effects of oil palm production in a peat landscape in Central Kalimantan. We examine two land use scenarios, one involving conversion of the complete landscape including a large peat area to oil palm plantations, and another involving mixed land use including oil palm plantations, jelutung (jungle rubber; (Dyera spp.) plantations, and natural forest. The hydrological effect was analyzed through flood risk modeling using a high-resolution digital elevation model. For the economic analysis, we analyzed four ecosystem services: oil palm production, jelutung production, carbon sequestration, and orangutan habitat. This study shows that after 100 years, in the oil palm scenario, about 67% of peat in the study area will be subject to regular flooding. The flood-prone area will be unsuitable for oil palm and other crops requiring drained soils. The oil palm scenario is the most profitable only in the short term and when the externalities of oil palm production, i.e., the costs of CO2 emissions, are not considered. In the examined scenarios, the social costs of carbon emissions exceed the private benefits from oil palm plantations in peat. Depending upon the local hydrology, income from jelutung, which can sustainably be grown in undrained conditions and does not lead to soil subsidence, outweighs that from oil palm after several decades. These findings illustrate the trade-offs faced at present in Indonesian peatland management and point to economic advantages of an approach that involves expansion of oil palm on mineral lands while conserving natural peat forests and using degraded peat for crops that do not require drainage.