Economic analysis in health care regulation : three essays

ABSTRACT - It is the purpose of the present thesis to emphasize, through a series of examples, the need and value of appropriate pre-analysis of the impact of health care regulation. Specifically, the thesis presents three papers on the theme of regulation in different aspects of health care provision and financing. The first two consist of economic analyses of the impact of health care regulation and the third comprises the creation of an instrument for supporting economic analysis of health care regulation, namely in the field of evaluation of health care programs. The first paper develops a model of health plan competition and pricing in order to understand the dynamics of health plan entry and exit in the presence of switching costs and alternative health premium payment systems. We build an explicit model of death spirals, in which profitmaximizing competing health plans find it optimal to adopt a pattern of increasing relative prices culminating in health plan exit. We find the steady-state numerical solution for the price sequence and the plan’s optimal length of life through simulation and do some comparative statics. This allows us to show that using risk adjusted premiums and imposing price floors are effective at reducing death spirals and switching costs, while having employees pay a fixed share of the premium enhances death spirals and increases switching costs. Price regulation of pharmaceuticals is one of the cost control measures adopted by the Portuguese government, as in many European countries. When such regulation decreases the products’ real price over time, it may create an incentive for product turnover. Using panel data for the period of 1997 through 2003 on drug packages sold in Portuguese pharmacies, the second paper addresses the question of whether price control policies create an incentive for product withdrawal. Our work builds the product survival literature by accounting for unobservable product characteristics and heterogeneity among consumers when constructing quality, price control and competition indexes. These indexes are then used as covariates in a Cox proportional hazard model. We find that, indeed, price control measures increase the probability of exit, and that such effect is not verified in OTC market where no such price regulation measures exist. We also find quality to have a significant positive impact on product survival. In the third paper, we develop a microsimulation discrete events model (MSDEM) for costeffectiveness analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus treatment, simulating individual paths from antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation to death. Four driving forces determine the course of events: CD4+ cell count, viral load resistance and adherence. A novel feature of the model with respect to the previous MSDEMs is that distributions of time to event depend on individuals’ characteristics and past history. Time to event was modeled using parametric survival analysis. Events modeled include: viral suppression, regimen switch due virological failure, regimen switch due to other reasons, resistance development, hospitalization, AIDS events, and death. Disease progression is structured according to therapy lines and the model is parameterized with cohort Portuguese observational data. An application of the model is presented comparing the cost-effectiveness ART initiation with two nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor(NNRTI) to two NRTI plus boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) in HIV- 1 infected individuals. We find 2NRTI+NNRTI to be a dominant strategy. Results predicted by the model reproduce those of the data used for parameterization and are in line with those published in the literature.

The effects of mega-events on city branding: The example of Warsaw and Euro 2012

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Strategic assessment of Portugal Ventures' life sciences portfolio

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Time series morphological analysis applied to biomedical signals events detection

Dissertation submitted in the fufillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master in Biomedical Engineering

An application of reliability-based robustness assessment of steel moment resisting frame structures under post-mainshock cascading events

The paper presented herein proposes a reliability-based framework for quantifying the structural robustness considering the occurrence of a major earthquake (mainshock) and subsequent cascading hazard events, such as aftershocks that are triggered by the mainshock. These events can significantly increase the probability of failure of buildings, especially for structures that are damaged during the mainshock. The application of the proposed framework is exemplified through three numerical case studies. The case studies correspond to three SAC steel moment frame buildings of 3-, 9-, and 20- stories, which were designed to pre-Northridge codes and standards. Twodimensional nonlinear finite element models of the buildings are developed using the Open System for Earthquake Engineering Simulation framework (OpenSees), using a finite-length plastic hinge beam model and a bilinear constitutive law with deterioration, and are subjected to multiple mainshock-aftershock seismic sequences. For the three buildings analyzed herein, it is shown that the structural reliability under a single seismic event can be significantly different from that under a sequence of seismic events. The reliability-based robustness indicator used shows that the structural robustness is influenced by the extent by which a structure can distribute damage.

A constructive technology assessment of stationary energy storage systems: prospective life cycle orientated analysis

Based on the presentation and discussion at the 3rd Winter School on Technology Assessment, December 2012, Universidade Nova de Lisboa (Portugal), Caparica Campus, PhD programme on Technology Assessment

Dissecting cross-talk between microglia and motoneurons in ALS: signaling events and soluble factors

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Genética Molecular e Biomedicina

Life (dis)satisfaction and the decision to migrate: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe

This paper provides empirical evidence of the impact of life satisfaction on the individual intention to migrate. The impacts of individual characteristics and of country macroeconomic variables on the intention to migrate are analyzed jointly. Differently from other studies, we allow for life satisfaction to serve as a mediator between macroeconomic variables and the intention to migrate. Using the Eurobarometer Survey for 27 Central Eastern European (CEE) and Western European (non-CEE) countries, we find that people have a higher intention to migrate when dissatisfied with life. The socio-economic variables and macroeconomic conditions have an effect on the intention to migrate indirectly through life satisfaction. The impact of life satisfaction on the intention to migrate for middle-aged individuals with past experience of migration, low level of education, and with a low or average income from urban areas is higher in CEE countries than in non-CEE countries.

Active ageing index and quality of life

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Life cycle and reproductive patterns of Triatoma rubrovaria (Blanchard, 1843) (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) under constant and fluctuating conditions of temperature and humidity

The aim of this study was to evaluate the temperature and relative humidity influence in the life cycle, mortality and fecundity patterns of Triatoma rubrovaria. Four cohorts with 60 recently laid eggs each were conformed. The cohorts were divided into two groups. In the controlled conditions group insects were maintained in a dark climatic chamber under constant temperature and humidity, whereas triatomines of the ambiental temperature group were maintained at room temperature. Average incubation time was 15.6 days in the controlled conditions group and 19.1 days in the ambiental temperature. In group controlled conditions the time from egg to adult development lasted 10 months while group ambiental temperature took four months longer. Egg eclosion rate was 99.1% and 98.3% in controlled conditions and ambiental temperature, respectively. Total nymphal mortality in controlled conditions was 52.6% whereas in ambiental temperature was 51.8%. Mean number of eggs/female was 817.6 controlled conditions and 837.1 ambiental temperature. Fluctuating temperature and humidity promoted changes in the life cycle duration and in the reproductive performance of this species, although not in the species mortality.

Res Publica: Citizenship and Political Representation in Portugal, 1820-1926

The term res publica (literally “thing of the people”) was coined by the Romans to translate the Greek word politeia, which, as we know, referred to a political community organised in accordance with certain principles, amongst which the notion of the “good life” (as against exclusively private interests) was paramount. This ideal also came to be known as political virtue. To achieve it, it was necessary to combine the best of each “constitutional” type and avoid their worst aspects (tyranny, oligarchy and ochlocracy). Hence, the term acquired from the Greeks a sense of being a “mixed” and “balanced” system. Anyone that was entitled to citizenship could participate in the governance of the “public thing”. This implied the institutionalization of open debate and confrontation between interested parties as a way of achieving the consensus necessary to ensure that man the political animal, who fought with words and reason, prevailed over his “natural” counterpart. These premises lie at the heart of the project which is now being presented under the title of Res Publica: Citizenship and Political Representation in Portugal, 1820-1926. The fact that it is integrated into the centenary commemorations of the establishment of the Republic in Portugal is significant, as it was the idea of revolution – with its promise of rupture and change – that inspired it. However, it has also sought to explore events that could be considered the precursor of democratization in the history of Portugal, namely the vintista, setembrista and patuleia revolutions. It is true that the republican regime was opposed to the monarchic. However, although the thesis that monarchy would inevitably lead to tyranny had held sway for centuries, it had also been long believed that the monarchic system could be as “politically virtuous” as a republic (in the strict sense of the word) provided that power was not concentrated in the hands of a single individual. Moreover, various historical experiments had shown that republics could also degenerate into Caesarism and different kinds of despotism. Thus, when absolutism began to be overturned in continental Europe in the name of the natural rights of man and the new social pact theories, initiating the difficult process of (written) constitutionalization, the monarchic principle began to be qualified as a “monarchy hedged by republican institutions”, a situation in which not even the king was exempt from isonomy. This context justifies the time frame chosen here, as it captures the various changes and continuities that run through it. Having rejected the imperative mandate and the reinstatement of the model of corporative representation (which did not mean that, in new contexts, this might not be revived, or that the second chamber established by the Constitutional Charter of 1826 might not be given another lease of life), a new power base was convened: national sovereignty, a precept that would be shared by the monarchic constitutions of 1822 and 1838, and by the republican one of 1911. This followed the French example (manifested in the monarchic constitution of 1791 and in the Spanish constitution of 1812), as not even republicans entertained a tradition of republicanism based upon popular sovereignty. This enables us to better understand the rejection of direct democracy and universal suffrage, and also the long incapacitation (concerning voting and standing for office) of the vast body of “passive” citizens, justified by “enlightened”, property- and gender-based criteria. Although the republicans had promised in the propaganda phase to alter this situation, they ultimately failed to do so. Indeed, throughout the whole period under analysis, the realisation of the potential of national sovereignty was mediated above all by the individual citizen through his choice of representatives. However, this representation was indirect and took place at national level, in the hope that action would be motivated not by particular local interests but by the common good, as dictated by reason. This was considered the only way for the law to be virtuous, a requirement that was also manifested in the separation and balance of powers. As sovereignty was postulated as single and indivisible, so would be the nation that gave it soul and the State that embodied it. Although these characteristics were common to foreign paradigms of reference, in Portugal, the constitutionalization process also sought to nationalise the idea of Empire. Indeed, this had been the overriding purpose of the 1822 Constitution, and it persisted, even after the loss of Brazil, until decolonization. Then, the dream of a single nation stretching from the Minho to Timor finally came to an end.

Transcriptional regulation of the mannosyltransferase-encoding gene pigm in inherited glycosylphosphatidylinositol (GPI) deficiency

RESUMO:O glicosilfosfatidilinositol (GPI) é um complexo glicolipídico utlizado por dezenas de proteínas, o qual medeia a sua ancoragem à superfície da célula. Proteínas de superfície celular ancoradas a GPI apresentam várias funções essenciais para a manutenção celular. A deficiência na síntese de GPI é o que caracteriza principalmente a deficiência hereditária em GPI, um grupo de doenças autossómicas raras que resultam de mutações nos genes PIGA, PIGL, PIGM, PIGV, PIGN, PIGO e PIGT, os quais sao indispensáveis para a biossíntese do GPI. Uma mutação pontual no motivo rico em GC -270 no promotor de PIGM impede a ligação do factor de transcrição (FT) Sp1 à sua sequência de reconhecimento, impondo a compactação da cromatina, associada à hipoacetilação de histonas, e consequentemente, impedindo a transcrição de PIGM. Desta forma, a adição da primeira manose ao GPI é comprometida, a síntese de GPI diminui assim como as proteínas ligadas a GPI à superficie das células. Pacientes com Deficiência Hereditária em GPI-associada a PIGM apresentam trombose e epilesia, e ausência de hemólise intravascular e anemia, sendo que estas duas últimas características definem a Hemoglobinúria Paroxística Nocturna (HPN), uma doença rara causada por mutações no gene PIGA. Embora a mutação que causa IGD seja constitutiva e esteja presente em todos os tecidos, o grau de deficiência em GPI varia entre células do mesmo tecido e entre células de tecidos diferentes. Por exemplo nos granulócitos e linfócitos B a deficiência em GPI é muito acentuada mas nos linfócitos T, fibroblastos, plaquetas e eritrócitos é aproximadamente normal, daí a ausência de hemólise intravascular. Os eventos transcricionais que estão na base da expressão diferencial da âncora GPI nas células hematopoiéticas são desconhecidos e constituem o objectivo geral desta tese. Em primeiro lugar, os resultados demonstraram que os níveis de PIGM mRNA variam entre células primárias hematopoiéticas normais. Adicionalmente, a configuração dos nucleossomas no promotor de PIGM é mais compacta em células B do que em células eritróides e tal está correlacionado com os níveis de expressão de PIGM, isto é, inferior nas células B. A presença de vários motivos de ligação para o FT específico da linhagem megacariocítica-eritróide GATA-1 no promotor de PIGM sugeriu que GATA-1 desempenha um papel regulador na sua transcrição. Os resultados mostraram que muito possivelmente GATA-1 desempenha um papel repressor em vez de activador da expressão de PIGM. Resultados preliminares sugerem que KLF1, um factor de transcrição restritamente eritróide, regula a transcrição de PIGM independentemente do motivo -270GC. Em segundo lugar, a investigação do papel dos FTs Sp demonstrou que Sp1 medeia directamente a transcrição de PIGM em ambas as células B e eritróide. Curiosamente, ao contrário do que acontece nas células B, em que a transcrição de PIGM requer a ligação do FT geral Sp1 ao motivo -270GC, nas células eritróides Sp1 regula a transcrição de PIGM ao ligar-se a montante e não ao motivo -270GC. Para além disso, demonstrou-se que Sp2 não é um regulador directo da transcrição de PIGM quer nas células B quer nas células eritróides. Estes resultados explicam a ausência de hemólise intravascular nos doentes com IGD associada a PIGM, uma das principais características que define a HPN. Por último, resultados preliminares mostraram que a repressão da transcrição de PIGM devida à mutação patogénica -270C>G está associada com a diminuição da frequência de interacções genómicas em cis entre PIGM e os seus genes “vizinhos”, sugerindo adicionalmente que a regulação de PIGM e desses genes é partilhada. No seu conjunto, os resultados apresentados nesta tese contribuem para o conhecimento do controlo transcricional de um gene housekeeping, específico-detecido, por meio de FTs genéricos e específicos de linhagem.-------------ABSTRACTC: Glycosylphosphatidylinositol (GPI) is a complex glycolipid used by dozens of proteins for cell surface anchoring. GPI-anchored proteins have various functions that are essential for the cellular maintenance. Defective GPI biosynthesis is the hallmark of inherited GPI deficiency (IGD), a group of rare autosomal diseases caused by mutations in PIGA, PIGL, PIGM, PIGV, PIGN, PIGO and PIGT, all genes indispensable for GPI biosynthesis. A point mutation in the -270GC-rich box in the core promoter of PIGM disrupts binding of the transcription factor (TF) Sp1 to it, imposing nucleosome compaction associated with histone hypoacetylation, thus abrogating transcription of PIGM. As a consequence of PIGM transcriptional repression, addition of the first mannose residue onto the GPI core and thus GPI production are impaired; and expression of GPI-anchored proteins on the surface of cells is severely impaired. Patients with PIGM-associated IGD suffer from life-threatening thrombosis and epilepsy but not intravascular haemolysis and anaemia, two defining features of paroxysmal nocturnal haemoglobinuria (PNH), a rare disease caused by somatic mutations in PIGA. Although the disease-causing mutation in IGD is constitutional and present in all tissues, the degree of GPI deficiency is variable and differs between cells of the same and of different tissues. Accordingly, GPI deficiency is severe in granulocytes and B cells but mild in T cells, fibroblasts, platelets and erythrocytes, hence the lack of intravascular haemolysis.The transcriptional events underlying differential expression of GPI in the haematopoietic cells of PIG-M-associated IGD are not known and constitute the general aim of this thesis. Firstly, I found that PIGM mRNA levels are variable amongst normal primary haematopoietic cells. In addition, the nucleosome configuration in the promoter of PIGM is more compacted in B cells than in erythroid cells and this correlated with the levels of PIGM mRNA expression, i.e., lower in B cells. The presence of several binding sites for GATA-1, a mega-erythroid lineage-specific transcription factor (TF), at the PIGM promoter suggested that GATA-1 has a role on PIGM transcription. My results showed that GATA-1 in erythroid cells is most likely a repressor rather than an activator of PIGM expression. Preliminary data suggested that KLF1, an erythroid-specific TF, regulates PIGM transcription but independently of the -270GC motif. Secondly, investigation of the role of the Sp TFs showed that Sp1 directly mediates PIGM transcriptional regulation in both B and erythroid cells. However, unlike in B cells in which active PIGM transcription requires binding of the generic TF Sp1 to the -270GC-rich box, in erythroid cells, Sp1 regulates PIGM transcription by binding upstream of but not to the -270GC-rich motif. Additionally, I showed that Sp2 is not a direct regulator of PIGM transcription in B and erythroid cells. These findings explain lack of intravascular haemolysis in PIGM-associated IGD, a defining feature of PNH. Lastly, preliminary work shows that transcriptional repression of PIG-M by the pathogenic -270C>G mutation is associated with reduced frequency of in cis genomic interactions between PIGM and its neighbouring genes, suggesting a shared regulatory link between these genes and PIGM. Altogether, the results presented in this thesis provide novel insights into tissuespecific transcriptional control of a housekeeping gene by lineage-specific and generic TFs.

Politicization of non-political events

Spatial analysis and social network analysis typically take into consideration social processes in specific contexts of geographical or network space. The research in political science increasingly strives to model heterogeneity and spatial dependence. To better understand and geographically model the relationship between “non-political” events, streaming data from social networks, and political climate was the primary objective of the current study. Geographic information systems (GIS) are useful tools in the organization and analysis of streaming data from social networks. In this study, geographical and statistical analysis were combined in order to define the temporal and spatial nature of the data eminating from the popular social network Twitter during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. The study spans the entire globe because Twitter’s geotagging function, the fundamental data that makes this study possible, is not limited to a geographic area. By examining the public reactions to an inherenlty non-political event, this study serves to illuminate broader questions about social behavior and spatial dependence. From a practical perspective, the analyses demonstrate how the discussion of political topics fluсtuate according to football matches. Tableau and Rapidminer, in addition to a set basic statistical methods, were applied to find patterns in the social behavior in space and time in different geographic regions. It was found some insight into the relationship between an ostensibly non-political event – the World Cup - and public opinion transmitted by social media. The methodology could serve as a prototype for future studies and guide policy makers in governmental and non-governmental organizations in gauging the public opinion in certain geographic locations.

Health-related quality of life in patients with Chagas disease

INTRODUCTION: Chagas disease (ChD) is a chronic illness related to significant morbidity and mortality that can affect the quality of life (QoL) of infected patients. However, there are few studies regarding QoL in ChD. The objectives of this study are to construct a health-related QoL (HRQoL) profile of ChD patients and compare this with a non-ChD (NChD) group to identify factors associated with the worst HRQoL scores in ChD patients. METHODS: HRQoL was investigated in 125 patients with ChD and 21 NChD individuals using the Medical Outcomes Study 36-item Short-Form (SF-36) and the Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire (MLWHFQ). Patients were submitted to a standard protocol that included clinical examination, ECG, Holter monitoring, Doppler echocardiogram and autonomic function tests. RESULTS: HRQoL scores were significantly worse among the ChD group compared to the NChD group in the SF-36 domains of physical functioning and role-emotional and in the MLWHFQ scale. For the ChD group, univariate analysis showed that HRQoL score quartiles were associated with level of education, sex, marital status, use of medication, functional classification and cardiovascular and gastrointestinal symptoms. In the multivariate analysis, female sex, fewer years of education, single status, worst functional classification, presence of cardiovascular and gastrointestinal symptoms, associated illnesses, Doppler echocardiographic abnormalities and ventricular arrhythmia detected during Holter monitoring were predictors of lower HRQoL scores. CONCLUSIONS: ChD patients showed worse HRQoL scores compared to NChD. For the ChD group, sociodemographic and clinical variables were associated with worst scores.