867 resultados para species distribution models


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My thesis examines fine-scale habitat use and movement patterns of age 1 Greenland cod (Gadus macrocephalus ogac) tracked using acoustic telemetry. Recent advances in tracking technologies such as GPS and acoustic telemetry have led to increasingly large and detailed datasets that present new opportunities for researchers to address fine-scale ecological questions regarding animal movement and spatial distribution. There is a growing demand for home range models that will not only work with massive quantities of autocorrelated data, but that can also exploit the added detail inherent in these high-resolution datasets. Most published home range studies use radio-telemetry or satellite data from terrestrial mammals or avian species, and most studies that evaluate the relative performance of home range models use simulated data. In Chapter 2, I used actual field-collected data from age-1 Greenland cod tracked with acoustic telemetry to evaluate the accuracy and precision of six home range models: minimum convex polygons, kernel densities with plug-in bandwidth selection and the reference bandwidth, adaptive local convex hulls, Brownian bridges, and dynamic Brownian bridges. I then applied the most appropriate model to two years (2010-2012) of tracking data collected from 82 tagged Greenland cod tracked in Newman Sound, Newfoundland, Canada, to determine diel and seasonal differences in habitat use and movement patterns (Chapter 3). Little is known of juvenile cod ecology, so resolving these relationships will provide valuable insight into activity patterns, habitat use, and predator-prey dynamics, while filling a knowledge gap regarding the use of space by age 1 Greenland cod in a coastal nursery habitat. By doing so, my thesis demonstrates an appropriate technique for modelling the spatial use of fish from acoustic telemetry data that can be applied to high-resolution, high-frequency tracking datasets collected from mobile organisms in any environment.

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The Antarctic Pack Ice Seal (APIS) Program was initiated in 1994 to estimate the abundance of four species of Antarctic phocids: the crabeater seal Lobodon carcinophaga, Weddell seal Leptonychotes weddellii, Ross seal Ommatophoca rossii and leopard seal Hydrurga leptonyx and to identify ecological relationships and habitat use patterns. The Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean (the eastern sector of the Weddell Sea) was surveyed by research teams from Germany, Norway and South Africa using a range of aerial methods over five austral summers between 1996-1997 and 2000-2001. We used these observations to model densities of seals in the area, taking into account haul-out probabilities, survey-specific sighting probabilities and covariates derived from satellite-based ice concentrations and bathymetry. These models predicted the total abundance over the area bounded by the surveys (30°W and 10°E). In this sector of the coast, we estimated seal abundances of: 514 (95 % CI 337-886) x 10**3 crabeater seals, 60.0 (43.2-94.4) x 10**3 Weddell seals and 13.2 (5.50-39.7) x 10**3 leopard seals. The crabeater seal densities, approximately 14,000 seals per degree longitude, are similar to estimates obtained by surveys in the Pacific and Indian sectors by other APIS researchers. Very few Ross seals were observed (24 total), leading to a conservative estimate of 830 (119-2894) individuals over the study area. These results provide an important baseline against which to compare future changes in seal distribution and abundance.

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During the Indian Ocean Expedition of R/V METEOR phytoplankton samples were taken with a multiple closing net (Multinet) at 103 stations. In this material the diatoms were investigated. In all 247 taxa could be identified which belong to 242 species and 5 varieties of formae of 80 genera. Of these 1 variety, 15 pecies, and 3 genera are newly described. New combinations were made for 18 species, and a number of old combinations was reinstated.

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The distribution of diatoms, coccolithophores and planktic foraminifers mirrored the hydrographic and trophic conditions of the surface ocean (0-100 m) across the upwelling area off the Oman coast to the central Arabian Sea during May/June 1997 and July/August 1995. The number of diatoms was increased in waters with local temperature minimum and enhanced nutrient concentration (nitrate, phosphate, silicate) caused by upwelling. Vegetative cells of Chaetoceros dominated the diatom assemblage in the coastal upwelling area. Towards the more nutrient depleted and stratified surface waters to the southeast, the number of diatoms decreased, coccolithophore and planktic foraminiferal numbers increased, and floral and faunal composition changed. In particular, the transition between the eutrophic upwelling region off Oman and the oligotrophic central Arabian Sea was marked by moderate nutrient concentration, and high coccolithophore and foraminifer numbers. Florisphaera profunda, previously often referred as a 'lower-photic-zone-species', was frequent in water depths as shallow as 20 m, and at high nutrient concentration up to 14 µmol NO3/l and 1.2 µmol PO4/. To the oligotrophic southeast of the divergence, cell densities of coccolithophores declined and Umbellosphaera irregularis prevailed throughout the water column down to 100 m depth. In general, total coccolithophore numbers were limited by nutrient threshold concentration, with low numbers (<10*10**3 cells/l) at high [NO3] and [PO4], and high numbers (>70*10**3 cells/l) at low [NO3] and [PO4]. The components of the complex microplankton succession, diatoms, coccoliths and planktic foraminifers (and possibly others), should ideally be used as a combined paleoceanographic proxy. Consequently, models on plankton ecology should be resolved at least for the seasonality, to account for the bias of paleoceanographic transfer calculations.

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Traditionally, many small-sized copepod species are considered to be widespread, bipolar or cosmopolitan. However, these large-scale distribution patterns need to be re-examined in view of increasing evidence of cryptic and pseudo-cryptic speciation in pelagic copepods. Here, we present a phylogeographic study of Oithona similis s.l. populations from the Arctic Ocean, the Southern Ocean and its northern boundaries, the North Atlantic and the Mediterrranean Sea. O. similis s.l. is considered as one of the most abundant species in temperate to polar oceans and acts as an important link in the trophic network between the microbial loop and higher trophic levels such as fish larvae. Two gene fragments were analysed: the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase c subunit I (COI), and the nuclear ribosomal 28S genetic marker. Seven distinct, geographically delimitated, mitochondrial lineages could be identified, with divergences among the lineages ranging from 8 to 24 %, thus representing most likely cryptic or pseudocryptic species within O. similis s.l. Four lineages were identified within or close to the borders of the Southern Ocean, one lineage in the Arctic Ocean and two lineages in the temperate Northern hemisphere. Surprisingly the Arctic lineage was more closely related to lineages from the Southern hemisphere than to the other lineages from the Northern hemisphere, suggesting that geographic proximity is a rather poor predictor of how closely related the clades are on a genetic level. Molecular clock application revealed that the evolutionary history of O. similis s.l. is possibly closely associated with the reorganization of the ocean circulation in the mid Miocene and may be an example of allopatric speciation in the pelagic zone.

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This work presents a computational, called MOMENTS, code developed to be used in process control to determine a characteristic transfer function to industrial units when radiotracer techniques were been applied to study the unit´s performance. The methodology is based on the measuring the residence time distribution function (RTD) and calculate the first and second temporal moments of the tracer data obtained by two scintillators detectors NaI positioned to register a complete tracer movement inside the unit. Non linear regression technique has been used to fit various mathematical models and a statistical test was used to select the best result to the transfer function. Using the code MOMENTS, twelve different models can be used to fit a curve and calculate technical parameters to the unit.

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Plantings of mixed native species (termed 'environmental plantings') are increasingly being established for carbon sequestration whilst providing additional environmental benefits such as biodiversity and water quality. In Australia, they are currently one of the most common forms of reforestation. Investment in establishing and maintaining such plantings relies on having a cost-effective modelling approach to providing unbiased estimates of biomass production and carbon sequestration rates. In Australia, the Full Carbon Accounting Model (FullCAM) is used for both national greenhouse gas accounting and project-scale sequestration activities. Prior to undertaking the work presented here, the FullCAM tree growth curve was not calibrated specifically for environmental plantings and generally under-estimated their biomass. Here we collected and analysed above-ground biomass data from 605 mixed-species environmental plantings, and tested the effects of several planting characteristics on growth rates. Plantings were then categorised based on significant differences in growth rates. Growth of plantings differed between temperate and tropical regions. Tropical plantings were relatively uniform in terms of planting methods and their growth was largely related to stand age, consistent with the un-calibrated growth curve. However, in temperate regions where plantings were more variable, key factors influencing growth were planting width, stand density and species-mix (proportion of individuals that were trees). These categories provided the basis for FullCAM calibration. Although the overall model efficiency was only 39-46%, there was nonetheless no significant bias when the model was applied to the various planting categories. Thus, modelled estimates of biomass accumulation will be reliable on average, but estimates at any particular location will be uncertain, with either under- or over-prediction possible. When compared with the un-calibrated yield curves, predictions using the new calibrations show that early growth is likely to be more rapid and total above-ground biomass may be higher for many plantings at maturity. This study has considerably improved understanding of the patterns of growth in different types of environmental plantings, and in modelling biomass accumulation in young (<25. years old) plantings. However, significant challenges remain to understand longer-term stand dynamics, particularly with temporal changes in stand density and species composition. © 2014.

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This dissertation proposes statistical methods to formulate, estimate and apply complex transportation models. Two main problems are part of the analyses conducted and presented in this dissertation. The first method solves an econometric problem and is concerned with the joint estimation of models that contain both discrete and continuous decision variables. The use of ordered models along with a regression is proposed and their effectiveness is evaluated with respect to unordered models. Procedure to calculate and optimize the log-likelihood functions of both discrete-continuous approaches are derived, and difficulties associated with the estimation of unordered models explained. Numerical approximation methods based on the Genz algortithm are implemented in order to solve the multidimensional integral associated with the unordered modeling structure. The problems deriving from the lack of smoothness of the probit model around the maximum of the log-likelihood function, which makes the optimization and the calculation of standard deviations very difficult, are carefully analyzed. A methodology to perform out-of-sample validation in the context of a joint model is proposed. Comprehensive numerical experiments have been conducted on both simulated and real data. In particular, the discrete-continuous models are estimated and applied to vehicle ownership and use models on data extracted from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey. The second part of this work offers a comprehensive statistical analysis of free-flow speed distribution; the method is applied to data collected on a sample of roads in Italy. A linear mixed model that includes speed quantiles in its predictors is estimated. Results show that there is no road effect in the analysis of free-flow speeds, which is particularly important for model transferability. A very general framework to predict random effects with few observations and incomplete access to model covariates is formulated and applied to predict the distribution of free-flow speed quantiles. The speed distribution of most road sections is successfully predicted; jack-knife estimates are calculated and used to explain why some sections are poorly predicted. Eventually, this work contributes to the literature in transportation modeling by proposing econometric model formulations for discrete-continuous variables, more efficient methods for the calculation of multivariate normal probabilities, and random effects models for free-flow speed estimation that takes into account the survey design. All methods are rigorously validated on both real and simulated data.

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During the period from 2011 - 2015 with the aim of this study was to systematically review and in particular the revised classification of the Persian Gulf (and the Strait of Hormuz) and to obtain new information about the final confirmed list of fish species of Iranian waters of the Persian Gulf (and Hormuz Strait), samples of museums, surveys and sampling, and comparative study of all available sources and documentation was done. Classification systematic of sharks and batoids and bony fishes. Based on the results, the final list of approved fish of the Persian Gulf (including the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman border region) are 907 species in 157 families, of which 93 species of fish with 28 cartilaginous families (including 18 families with 60 species and 10 families with 34 species of shark and batoids); and 129 families with 814 species of bony fishes are. The presence of 11 new family with only one representative species in the area include Veliferidae, Zeidae, Sebastidae, Stomiidae, Dalatiidae, Zanclidae, Pempheridae, Lophiidae Kuhliidae, Etmoptridae and Chlorophthalmidae also recently introduced and approved. The two families based Creediidae Clinidae and their larvae samples for newly identified area. 62 families with mono-species and 25 families with more than 10 species are present including Gobiidae (53), Carangide (48), Labride (41), Blenniidae (34), Apogonidae (32) and Lutjanidae (31) of bony fishes, Carcharhinidae (26) of sharks and Dasyatidae (12) in terms of number of species of batoids most families to have their data partitioning. Also, 13 species as well as endemic species introduced the Persian Gulf and have been approved in terms of geographical expansion of the Persian Gulf are unique to the area.Two species of the family Poeciliidae and Cyprinodontidae have species of fresh water to the brackish coastal habitats have found a way;in addition to 11 types of families Carcharhinidae, Clupeidae, Chanidae, Gobidae, Mugilidae, Sparidae also as a species, with a focus on freshwater river basins in the south of the country have been found. In this study, it was found that out of 907 species have been reported from the study area, 294 species (32.4 %) to benthic habitats (Benthic habitats) and 613 species (67.6 %) in pelagic habitats (Pelagic habitats) belong. Coral reefs and rocky habitats in the range of benthic fish (129 species - 14.3 %) and reef associated fishes in the range of pelagic fishes (432 species – 47.8 %), the highest number and percentage of habitat diversity (Species habitats) have been allocated. As well as fish habitats with sea grass and algae beds in benthic habitat (17 species- 1.9 %) and pelagic - Oceanic (Open sea) in the whole pelagic fish (30 species – 3.3 %), the lowest number and percentage of habitat diversity into account. From the perspective of animal geography (Zoogeography) and habitat overlaps and similarities (Habitat overlapping) fish fauna of the Persian Gulf compared with other similar seas (tropical and subtropical, and warm temperate) in the Indian Ocean area - calm on the surface, based on the presence of certain species that the fish fauna of the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea and the Bay of Bengal (East Arabian Sea) compared to other regions in the Indian Ocean (Pacific) is closer (about 50%), and the Mediterranean (East area) and The Hawaiian Islands have the lowest overlap and similarity of habitat and species (about 10%).

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Understanding the factors that affect seagrass meadows encompassing their entire range of distribution is challenging yet important for their conservation. We model the environmental niche of Cymodocea nodosa using a combination of environmental variables and landscape metrics to examine factors defining its distribution and find suitable habitats for the species. The most relevant environmental variables defining the distribution of C. nodosa were sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity. We found suitable habitats at SST from 5.8 ºC to 26.4 ºC and salinity ranging from 17.5 to 39.3. Optimal values of mean winter wave height ranged between 1.2 m and 1.5 m, while waves higher than 2.5 m seemed to limit the presence of the species. The influence of nutrients and pH, despite having weight on the models, was not so clear in terms of ranges that confine the distribution of the species. Landscape metrics able to capture variation in the coastline enhanced significantly the accuracy of the models, despite the limitations caused by the scale of the study. By contrasting predictive approaches, we defined the variables affecting the distributional areas that seem unsuitable for C. nodosa as well as those suitable habitats not occupied by the species. These findings are encouraging for its use in future studies on climate-related marine range shifts and meadow restoration projects of these fragile ecosystems.

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Dependence of some species on landscape structure has been proved in numerous studies. So far, however, little progress has been made in the integration of landscape metrics in the prediction of species associated with coastal features. Specific landscape metrics were tested as predictors of coastal shape using three coastal features of the Iberian Peninsula (beaches, capes and gulfs) at different scales. We used the landscape metrics in combination with environmental variables to model the niche and find suitable habitats for a seagrass species (Cymodocea nodosa) throughout its entire range of distribution. Landscape metrics able to capture variation in the coastline enhanced significantly the accuracy of the models, despite the limitations caused by the scale of the study. We provided the first global model of the factors that can be shaping the environmental niche and distribution of C. nodosa throughout its range. Sea surface temperature and salinity were the most relevant variables. We identified areas that seem unsuitable for C. nodosa as well as those suitable habitats not occupied by the species. We also present some preliminary results of testing historical biogeographical hypotheses derived from distribution predictions under Last Glacial Maximum conditions and genetic diversity data.

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The Heliothinae complex in Argentina encompasses Helicoverpa gelotopoeon (Dyar), Helicoverpa zea (Boddie), Helicoverpa armigera (Hu ̈ bner), and Chloridea virescens (Fabricius). In Tucum an, the native species H. gelotopoeon is one of the most voracious soybean pests and also affects cotton and chickpea, even more in soybean-chickpea succession cropping systems. Differentiation of the Heliothinae complex in the egg, larva, and pupa stages is difficult. Therefore, the observation of the adult wing pattern design and male genitalia is useful to differentiate species. The objective of this study was to identify the species of the Heliothinae complex, determine population fluctuations of the Heliothinae complex in soybean and chickpea crops using male moths collected in pheromone traps in Tucuman province, and update the geographical distribution of H. armigera in Argentina. The species found were H. gelotopoeon, H. armigera, H. zea , and C. virescens. Regardless of province, county, crop, and year, the predominant species was H. gelotopoeon . Considering the population dynamics of H. gelotopoeon and H. armigera in chickpea and soybean crops, H. gelotopoeon was the most abundant species in both crops, in all years sampled, and the differences registered were significant. On the other hand, according to the Sistema Nacional Argentino de Vigilancia y Monitoreo de Plagas (SINAVIMO) database and our collections, H. armigera was recorded in eight provinces and 20 counties of Argentina, and its larvae were found on soybean, chickpea, sunflower crops and spiny plumeless thistle (Carduus acanthoides). This is the first report of H. armigera in sunflower and spiny plumeless thistle in Argentina.