Monetary Policy, Stock Price Misalignments and Macroeconomic Instability

Perhaps the most fundamental prediction of financial theory is that the expected returns on financial assets are determined by the amount of risk contained in their payoffs. Assets with a riskier payoff pattern should provide higher expected returns than assets that are otherwise similar but provide payoffs that contain less risk. Financial theory also predicts that not all types of risks should be compensated with higher expected returns. It is well-known that the asset-specific risk can be diversified away, whereas the systematic component of risk that affects all assets remains even in large portfolios. Thus, the asset-specific risk that the investor can easily get rid of by diversification should not lead to higher expected returns, and only the shared movement of individual asset returns – the sensitivity of these assets to a set of systematic risk factors – should matter for asset pricing. It is within this framework that this thesis is situated. The first essay proposes a new systematic risk factor, hypothesized to be correlated with changes in investor risk aversion, which manages to explain a large fraction of the return variation in the cross-section of stock returns. The second and third essays investigate the pricing of asset-specific risk, uncorrelated with commonly used risk factors, in the cross-section of stock returns. The three essays mentioned above use stock market data from the U.S. The fourth essay presents a new total return stock market index for the Finnish stock market beginning from the opening of the Helsinki Stock Exchange in 1912 and ending in 1969 when other total return indices become available. Because a total return stock market index for the period prior to 1970 has not been available before, academics and stock market participants have not known the historical return that stock market investors in Finland could have achieved on their investments. The new stock market index presented in essay 4 makes it possible, for the first time, to calculate the historical average return on the Finnish stock market and to conduct further studies that require long time-series of data.

Towards a Conceptual History of Narrative

The article outlines a conceptual history of narrative, in particular the changes over the movement called “narrative turn” in the social sciences. According to Quentin Skinner, conceptual changes may take place on three separate levels: by changing the criteria of the concept, by changing the range of reference, and by changing the appraisal of the concept. Recent theorizing on narrative epitomizes all of these levels, but unevenly. In spite of the rhetoric of interdisciplinarity, two almost totally separate traditions of narrative theory persist: the narratological and the narrative-turn theories. Paradoxically, the narrative turn literature has radicalized the range of reference of narrative by attaching the concept to life and identity, but has left the criteria of the concept practically intact. This has extended the reign of a simplified Aristotelian concept of narrative as a chain of beginnings, middles, and ends. The narratological tradition of theorizing, instead, has debated extensively on the correct criteria of the concept, but enlarged the range of reference rather in the direction of cognition.

Cognitive Functioning in Alcohol and Other Substance Use Disorders in Young Adulthood : A Genetic Epidemiological Study

Alcohol and other substance use disorders (SUDs) result in great costs and suffering for individuals and families and constitute a notable public health burden. A multitude of factors, ranging from biological to societal, are associated with elevated risk of SUDs, but at the level of individuals, one of the best predictors is a family history of SUDs. Genetically informative twin and family studies have consistently indicated this familial risk to be mainly genetic. In addition, behavioral and temperamental factors such as early initiation of substance use and aggressiveness are associated with the development of SUDs. These familial, behavioral and temperamental risk factors often co-occur, but their relative importance is not well known. People with SUDs have also been found to differ from healthy controls in various domains of cognitive functioning, with poorer verbal ability being among the most consistent findings. However, representative population-based samples have rarely been used in neuropsychological studies of SUDs. In addition, both SUDs and cognitive abilities are influenced by genetic factors, but whether the co-variation of these traits might be partly explained by overlapping genetic influences has not been studied. Problematic substance use also often co-occurs with low educational level, but it is not known whether these outcomes share part of their underlying genetic influences. In addition, educational level may moderate the genetic etiology of alcohol problems, but gene-environment interactions between these phenomena have also not been widely studied. The incidence of SUDs peaks in young adulthood rendering epidemiological studies in this age group informative. This thesis investigated cognitive functioning and other correlates of SUDs in young adulthood in two representative population-based samples of young Finnish adults, one of which consisted of monozygotic and dizygotic twin pairs enabling genetically informative analyses. Using data from the population-based Mental Health in Early Adulthood in Finland (MEAF) study (n=605), the lifetime prevalence of DSM-IV any substance dependence or abuse among persons aged 21—35 years was found to be approximately 14%, with a majority of the diagnoses being alcohol use disorders. Several correlates representing the domains of behavioral and affective factors, parental factors, early initiation of substance use, and educational factors were individually associated with SUDs. The associations between behavioral and affective factors (attention or behavior problems at school, aggression, anxiousness) and SUDs were found to be largely independent of factors from other domains, whereas daily smoking and low education were still associated with SUDs after adjustment for behavioral and affective factors. Using a wide array of neuropsychological tests in the MEAF sample and in a subsample (n=602) of the population-based FinnTwin16 (FT16) study, consistent evidence of poorer verbal cognitive ability related to SUDs was found. In addition, participants with SUDs performed worse than those without disorders in a task assessing psychomotor processing speed in the MEAF sample, whereas no evidence of more specific cognitive deficits was found in either sample. Biometrical structural equation models of the twin data suggested that both alcohol problems and verbal ability had moderate heritabilities (0.54—0.72), and that their covariation could be explained by correlated genetic influences (genetic correlations -0.20 to -0.31). The relationship between educational level and alcohol problems, studied in the full epidemiological FT16 sample (n=4,858), was found to reflect both genetic correlation and gene-environment interaction. The co-occurrence of low education and alcohol problems was influenced by overlapping genetic factors. In addition, higher educational level was associated with increased relative importance of genetic influences on alcohol problems, whereas environmental influences played a more important role in young adults with lower education. In conclusion, SUDs, especially alcohol abuse and dependence, are common among young Finnish adults. Behavioral and affective factors are robustly related to SUDs independently of many other factors, and compared to healthy peers, young adults who have had SUDs during their life exhibit significantly poorer verbal cognitive ability, and possibly less efficient psychomotor processing. Genetic differences between individuals explain a notable proportion of individual differences in risk of alcohol dependence, verbal ability, and educational level, and the co-occurrence of alcohol problems with poorer verbal cognition and low education is influenced by shared genetic backgrounds. Finally, various environmental factors related to educational level in young adulthood moderate the relative importance of genetic factors influencing the risk of alcohol problems, possibly reflecting differences in social control mechanisms related to educational level.

Globalization and the Political : in the Borderlands with the Zapatista Movement

This study explores the meaning, content and significance of the political as manifest in the Mexican Zapatista movement as historically and geopolitically situated struggle. The case study undertakes a critical analysis of the development, organization, practice and discourse of the movement by drawing on fieldwork experiences, interviews, discussions, documents, films and other material produced by the movement, and the critical engagement with the research of others, especially in Latin America and Mexico. The dissertation poses the need to reconsider what constitutes and what we understand by the political , related particularly to the challenges provided by the critical globalization literature, decolonization and the study of social movements. The analysis encompasses several inter-related levels: the theoretical knowledge regarding the conceptualization of the political; the methodological level, regarding how such research can and should be conducted and knowledge claims formulated given the inescapable context and effects of global power relations; and the substantive level of adding specific information and analytical insights to existing knowledge of the Zapatista movement. As a result of conceptualization of a range of practices and processes, distinct understandings of the political can be underlined. Firstly, the conception of the indigenous and the struggles as indigenous movements as specifically political, not just a cultural or ethnic identity or a static quality but rather, an active consciousness integrally linked both to a longer history of oppression and as political articulation in the concrete context and lived experience of contemporary struggle. Secondly, the practice of autonomy as central to an understanding of the political in the context of the Zapatista struggle as a practical response to the situation of oppression, counter-insurgency, siege and conflict in Chiapas, as well as a positively informed mode of political self-understanding, expression and practice in its own right. Thirdly, the notion of geopolitical positioning as important to understanding of the political that encompasses the historicity of specific context and the power relations which shape that context, developed in two different ways: in regard to the positioning of the researcher and knowledge production with and about the Zapatistas, and in regard to the practice and knowledge of the Zapatistas as a decolonizing force in their encounters, interaction and relations with others, especially the global civil society. Finally, the role of silence, absence, invisibility, revelation and hiding in political practice as a deliberate strategy in response to oppressive power. -