Site fidelity and movements of gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata) in a coastal lagoon (Ria Formosa, Portugal)

Short-time site fidelity and movements of gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata) in a coastal lagoon were determined using passive acoustic telemetry. Nine fish, ranging from 20.1 to 32.5 cm total length, were surgically implanted with acoustic transmitters and monitored for up to 179 days. Minimum convex polygon areas ranged from 18,698.6 m(2) to 352,711.9 m(2). Home range sizes were small, with individuals using core areas on a daily basis. However, these core areas shifted within the study site over time towards the opening to the sea. Two different diel behaviors were recorded, with some individuals more active at night and others during day time. Some individuals also demonstrated homing abilities, returning to the capture site after being released more than 4 km away. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Umbrella pine above ground biomass estimation with very high spatial resolution satellite images

Above ground biomass is frequently estimated with forest inventory data and an extrapolation method for the per unit area evaluations. This procedure is labour demanding and costly. In this study above ground biomass functions, whose independent variable is crown horizontal projection, were developed. Multi-resolution segmentation method and object-oriented classification, based on very high spatial resolution satellite images, were used to obtain the area of tree crown horizontal projection for umbrella pine (Pinus pinea L.). A set of inventory plots were measured and with existing allometric functions for this species above ground biomass per tree and per plot were calculated. The two data sets were used to fit linear functions both for individual plot and their cumulative values. The results show a good performance of the models. Errors smaller than 10% are obtained for stand areas greater than 1.4 ha. These functions have the advantages of estimating above ground biomass for all the area under study or surveillance, not requiring forest inventory; allow monitoring in short time periods; and are easily implemented in a geographical information system environment.

An Approach to Tactical Performance Optimization in a Big Data World

The amount of data collected from an individual player during a football match has increased significantly in recent years, following technological evolution in positional tracking. However, given the short time that separates competitions, the common analysis of these data focuses on the magnitude of actions of each player, while considering either technical or physical perform- ance. This focus leads to a considerable amount of information not being taken into account in performance optimization, particularly while considering a sequence of different matches of the same team. In this presentation, we will present a tactical performance indicator that considers players’ overall positioning and their level of coordination during the match. This performance indicator will be applied in different time scales, with a particular focus on possible practical applications.

Simplificação do processo de multiplicação in vitro da oliveira "Olea europaea L."

A oliveira tem sido multiplicada ao longo dos tempos por métodos convencionais de propagação vegetativa como a enxertia e a estacaria lenhosa e semilenhosa. No entanto, estes métodos revelam-se lentos ou ineficientes para determinadas cultivares. No caso da cv. ‘Galega Vulgar’, ainda com grande expressão no olival português, e de difícil enraizamento por estacaria semilenhosa, tem sido usada a micropropagação de modo a contornar essas limitações e assim obter um elevado número de plantas em curto período de tempo. O custo final de produção por este processo ainda é elevado, podendo comprometer a sua aplicação a nível comercial. Grande parte dos custos estão relacionados com a fase de enraizamento in vitro que carece de ambiente estéril e condições de assépsia para a sua execução. Com vista a uma redução de custos associados a esta fase de produção, pretendeu-se com este trabalho testar a viabilidade do enraizamento ex vitro, na ausência de condições de assépsia. Este método poderá permitir uma significativa redução da mão-de-obra, ao mesmo tempo que facilitará a aclimatização das plantas e a obtenção de um sistema radicular de melhor qualidade. Compararam-se as taxas de enraizamento in vitro (controlo), com as obtidas ex vitro. Foram utilizados explantes provenientes de dois clones da cv. ‘Galega Vulgar’, (cl. 1441 e cl. 2022) cultivados e mantidos in vitro há vários anos no Laboratório de Melhoramento e Biotecnologia da Universidade de Évora. Para além do clone foi avaliada a influência do tipo de estaca (basal e apical), da hormona de enraizamento (AIB e ANA), da sua concentração (540 e 3000 ppm) e ainda de dois substratos, Preformas Jiffy® e pastilhas de fibra coco. Os melhores resultados foram obtidos com o clone 1441 em pastilhas de fibra de coco prensada, com o uso de estacas basais. Quanto à auxina, não se observaram diferenças significativas entre a utilização de ANA na concentração de 540 ppm e AIB na concentração de 3000 ppm. A aclimatização das plantas foi conseguida com taxas elevadas de sucesso, independentemente do tratamento utilizado. Conclui-se que a aplicação do método de enraizamento ex vitro simplifica procedimentos e mantém taxas de enraizamento elevadas, conduzindo assim a uma efetiva redução de tempo e custos associados; Simplifying procedures for in vitro propagation of olive “Olea europaea L.” Abstract: The olive tree has been multiplied throughout the ages by conventional methods of vegetative propagation such as grafting and wood or softwood cuttings. These propagation methods are somehow inefficient for certain cultivars. For the CV. ‘Galega Vulgar‘, still with great expression in Portuguese olive orchards, propagation has been attempted by in vitro culture in order to circumvent these limitations and so obtain a large number of plants in short time period. The final production fees associated to this process are still high which may compromise its application to a commercial level. Most of this process fees are related to the in vitro rooting phase which lacks sterile and aseptic conditions for its implementation. Aiming to reduce the costs associated with this production phase, this work tested the feasibility of the ex vitro rooting in the absence of aseptic conditions, which can allow a significant reduction of the manpower involved and an easier plant acclimatization due to its transplant with a balled-root system. In vitro rooting rates (control) were compared with those obtained with the ex vitro experiments. Explants from two clones of the cv. ‘Galega Vulgar‘ (cl. 1441 and cl. 2022), grown and maintained in vitro for several years in the Laboratory of Biotechnology and Plant Breeding of the University of Évora, were used in the trials. In addition to the clone, the effect of the cutting type (basal and apical), the rooting hormone (AIB and ANA), their concentration (540 and 3000 ppm) and two substrates, Preformas Jiffy ® and pressed coco fiber pellets, were also evaluated. The best results were obtained with the clone 1441, when rooted in pressed coco fiber pellets, using basal cuttings. Under this conditions no significant differences were observed between the use of ANA at 540 ppm or AIB in the 3000 ppm. Acclimatization of plants was achieved with high rates of success, regardless of the treatment used. It can be concluded that the application of the ex vitro rooting method allows to maintain high rooting rates, contributing for an effective reduction of time and fees of the rooting process.

The Essays in International Trade and Finance

The first chapter provides the first evidence on the gross capital flows reactions to the financial sector reform. I establish four new stylized facts. First, the reform is associated with an average increase of 0.03pp in both gross capital flows. Second, immediately after the reform both flows decrease, in the long term they stabilize at a higher than the pre-liberalization levels. Third, the short term dynamics is governed by debt flows, while the long term dynamics are driven by all of the components. Finally, only a complex reform leads to a positive effect. The results are robust to a wide range of robustness checks. In the second chapter we develop a novel theory to explain the recent phenomenon of reshoring, i.e. firms moving back their previously offshored business activities. We firstly provide the evidence for the importance of the quality behind the reshoring decision and then, building on Antoniades (2015) we develop a dynamic heterogeneous firms model with quality choice and offshoring. In the dynamic setting the location decision entails a tradeoff between payroll and quality-related costs. In equilibrium reshoring arises as some firms initially offshore, exploit the increase in profits due to lower wages and finally return to the domestic country in order to further increase the quality. The third chapter provides the new evidence suggesting that selling through global production networks might lead to export upgrade. I relate the sector-level GVCs participation indicators derived from the international Input-Output Tables to the data on the unit values of exports at the product-exporter level. We find a strong association between the export prices and forward participation, in particular for the developing countries. We document also a less robust negative relationship between the GVCs backward participation and unit values of exports.

Constraint Programming-based Job Dispatching for Modern HPC Applications

A High-Performance Computing job dispatcher is a critical software that assigns the finite computing resources to submitted jobs. This resource assignment over time is known as the on-line job dispatching problem in HPC systems. The fact the problem is on-line means that solutions must be computed in real-time, and their required time cannot exceed some threshold to do not affect the normal system functioning. In addition, a job dispatcher must deal with a lot of uncertainty: submission times, the number of requested resources, and duration of jobs. Heuristic-based techniques have been broadly used in HPC systems, at the cost of achieving (sub-)optimal solutions in a short time. However, the scheduling and resource allocation components are separated, thus generates a decoupled decision that may cause a performance loss. Optimization-based techniques are less used for this problem, although they can significantly improve the performance of HPC systems at the expense of higher computation time. Nowadays, HPC systems are being used for modern applications, such as big data analytics and predictive model building, that employ, in general, many short jobs. However, this information is unknown at dispatching time, and job dispatchers need to process large numbers of them quickly while ensuring high Quality-of-Service (QoS) levels. Constraint Programming (CP) has been shown to be an effective approach to tackle job dispatching problems. However, state-of-the-art CP-based job dispatchers are unable to satisfy the challenges of on-line dispatching, such as generate dispatching decisions in a brief period and integrate current and past information of the housing system. Given the previous reasons, we propose CP-based dispatchers that are more suitable for HPC systems running modern applications, generating on-line dispatching decisions in a proper time and are able to make effective use of job duration predictions to improve QoS levels, especially for workloads dominated by short jobs.

Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions: Linking Oceanic Biological Activity to Marine Aerosol Physico-Chemical and Cloud Properties

In this work, in-situ measurements of aerosol chemical composition, particle number size distribution, cloud-relevant properties and ground-based cloud observations were combined with high-resolution satellite sea surface chlorophyll-a concentration and air mass back-trajectory data to investigate the impact of the marine biota on aerosol physico-chemical and cloud properties. Studies were performed over the North-Eastern Atlantic Ocean, the central Mediterranean Sea, and the Arctic Ocean, by deploying both multi-year datasets and short-time scale observations. All the data were chosen to be representative of the marine atmosphere, reducing to a minimum any anthropogenic input. A relationship between the patterns of marine biological activity and the time evolution of marine aerosol properties was observed, under a variety of aspects, from chemical composition to number concentration and size distribution, up to the most cloud‐relevant properties. At short-time scales (1-2 months), the aerosol properties tend to respond to biological activity variations with a delay of about one to three weeks. This delay should be considered in model applications that make use of Chlorophyll-a to predict marine aerosol properties at high temporal resolution. The impact of oceanic biological activity on the microphysical properties of marine stratiform clouds is also evidenced by our analysis, over the Eastern North Atlantic Ocean. Such clouds tend to have a higher number of smaller cloud droplets in periods of high biological activity with respect to quiescent periods. This confirms the possibility of feedback interactions within the biota-aerosol-cloud climate system. Achieving a better characterization of the time and space relationships linking oceanic biological activity to marine aerosol composition and properties may significantly impact our future capability of predicting the chemical composition of the marine atmosphere, potentially contributing to reducing the uncertainty of future climate predictions, through a better understanding of the natural climate system.

La Polizza di Carico nell'era della Blockchain

Da anni si assiste ad una continua e incessante evoluzione del settore marittimo, nel tentativo costante di introdurre nuove tecnologie per migliorare i servizi offerti, con l’obiettivo di accelerare la velocità degli scambi commerciali e ridurre i costi delle operazioni. Nell’intento di offrire un’assistenza all’avanguardia ed in tempi ridotti, particolare importanza hanno avuto le evoluzioni in tema di Polizza di Carico. La Polizza di Carico o Bill of Lading (B/L) è il principale documento utilizzato nel trasporto marittimo a livello internazionale caratterizzandosi come ricevuta di carico, titolo rappresentativo di merce e prova del contratto di trasporto. Dagli anni Ottanta del secolo scorso, diversi sono stati i tentativi di sviluppare una polizza di carico elettronica che presenti le stesse funzionalità di quella cartacea al fine di ovviare agli inconvenienti del documento tradizionale garantendone, al tempo stesso, la medesima sicurezza ed efficacia. Di recente, il progresso scientifico e l’innovazione digitale, hanno contribuito all’introduzione nel settore dello shipping di una polizza di carico basata sulla Blockchain. Nonostante sia indubbio che tale tecnologia possa garantire molteplici vantaggi, il reale utilizzo di una Blockchain Bill of Lading risulta, a tuttora, un’ipotesi in piena evoluzione.

On the Wick product and Wong-Zakai approximations.

This thesis is a compilation of 6 papers that the author has written together with Alberto Lanconelli (chapters 3, 5 and 8) and Hyun-Jung Kim (ch 7). The logic thread that link all these chapters together is the interest to analyze and approximate the solutions of certain stochastic differential equations using the so called Wick product as the basic tool. In the first chapter we present arguably the most important achievement of this thesis; namely the generalization to multiple dimensions of a Wick-Wong-Zakai approximation theorem proposed by Hu and Oksendal. By exploiting the relationship between the Wick product and the Malliavin derivative we propose an original reduction method which allows us to approximate semi-linear systems of stochastic differential equations of the Itô type. Furthermore in chapter 4 we present a non-trivial extension of the aforementioned results to the case in which the system of stochastic differential equations are driven by a multi-dimensional fraction Brownian motion with Hurst parameter bigger than 1/2. In chapter 5 we employ our approach and present a “short time” approximation for the solution of the Zakai equation from non-linear filtering theory and provide an estimation of the speed of convergence. In chapters 6 and 7 we study some properties of the unique mild solution for the Stochastic Heat Equation driven by spatial white noise of the Wick-Skorohod type. In particular by means of our reduction method we obtain an alternative derivation of the Feynman-Kac representation for the solution, we find its optimal Hölder regularity in time and space and present a Feynman-Kac-type closed form for its spatial derivative. Chapter 8 treats a somewhat different topic; in particular we investigate some probabilistic aspects of the unique global strong solution of a two dimensional system of semi-linear stochastic differential equations describing a predator-prey model perturbed by Gaussian noise.

Generazione di osservabili radiometriche per navigazione deep space tramite reti neurali convoluzionali

Grazie all’evoluzione degli strumenti di calcolo e delle strutture digitali, le intelligenze artificiali si sono evolute considerevolmente negli ultimi anni, permettendone sempre nuove e complesse applicazioni. L’interesse del presente progetto di tesi è quello di creare un modello di studio preliminare di intelligenza artificiale definita come Rete Neurale Convoluzionale, o Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), al fine di essere impiegata nel campo della radioscienza e dell’esplorazione planetaria. In particolare, uno degli interessi principali di applicazione del modello è negli studi di geodesia compiuti tramite determinazione orbitale di satelliti artificiali nel loro moto attorno ai corpi celesti. Le accelerazioni causate dai campi gravitazionali planetari perturbano le orbite dei satelliti artificiali, queste variazioni vengono captate dai ricevitori radio a terra sottoforma di shift Doppler della frequenza del segnale, a partire dalla quale è quindi possibile determinare informazioni dettagliate sul campo di gravità e sulla struttura interna del corpo celeste in esame. Per poter fare ciò, occorre riuscire a determinare l’esatta frequenza del segnale in arrivo, il quale, per via di perdite e disturbi durante il suo tragitto, presenterà sempre una componente di rumore. Il metodo più comune per scindere la componente di informazione da quella di rumore e ricavarne la frequenza effettiva è l’applicazione di trasformate di Fourier a tempo breve, o Short-time Fourier Transform (STFT). Con l’attività sperimentale proposta, ci si è quindi posto l’obiettivo di istruire un CNN alla stima della frequenza di segnali reali sinusoidali rumorosi per avere un modello computazionalmente rapido e affidabile a supporto delle operazioni di pre-processing per missioni di radio-scienza.

The population dynamics of disease on short and long time-scales

Observational evidence is scarce concerning the distribution of plant pathogen population sizes or densities as a function of time-scale or spatial scale. For wild pathosystems we can only get indirect evidence from evolutionary patterns and the consequences of biological invasions.We have little or no evidence bearing on extermination of hosts by pathogens, or successful escape of a host from a pathogen. Evidence over the last couple of centuries from crops suggest that the abundance of particular pathogens in the spectrum affecting a given host can vary hugely on decadal timescales. However, this may be an artefact of domestication and intensive cultivation. Host-pathogen dynamics can be formulated mathematically fairly easily–for example as SIR-type differential equation or difference equation models, and this has been the (successful) focus of recent work in crops. “Long-term” is then discussed in terms of the time taken to relax from a perturbation to the asymptotic state. However, both host and pathogen dynamics are driven by environmental factors as well as their mutual interactions, and both host and pathogen co-evolve, and evolve in response to external factors. We have virtually no information about the importance and natural role of higher trophic levels (hyperpathogens) and competitors, but they could also induce long-scale fluctuations in the abundance of pathogens on particular hosts. In wild pathosystems the host distribution cannot be modelled as either a uniform density or even a uniform distribution of fields (which could then be treated as individuals). Patterns of short term density-dependence and the detail of host distribution are therefore critical to long-term dynamics. Host density distributions are not usually scale-free, but are rarely uniform or clearly structured on a single scale. In a (multiply structured) metapopulation with coevolution and external disturbances it could well be the case that the time required to attain equilibrium (if it exists) based on conditions stable over a specified time-scale is longer than that time-scale. Alternatively, local equilibria may be reached fairly rapidly following perturbations but the meta-population equilibrium be attained very slowly. In either case, meta-stability on various time-scales is a more relevant than equilibrium concepts in explaining observed patterns.

Three essays on short-term macroeconomics : business fluctuations, large devaluations and inflation dynamics

Résumé: At least since the Great Depression, explaining why there are business fluctuations has been one of the biggest challenges that the science of economics has had to face. The hope is that if we could better understand recessions, then we could also be more successful in overcoming them. This dissertation consists of three papers that are part of the general endeavor of economists to understand these fluctuations. The first paper discusses, for a particular model, whether a result related to fluctuations would still hold if time were modeled as continuous rather than discrete. The two other papers focus on price stickiness. The second paper discusses why, after a large devaluation, prices of non-tradables may change by only a small amount in comparison to the magnitude of the devaluation. The third paper examines price adjustment in a model in which information is imperfect and it is costly to change prices.

Forecasting Multivariate Time Series under Present-Value-Model Short- and Long-run Co-movement Restrictions

This paper has two original contributions. First, we show that the present value model (PVM hereafter), which has a wide application in macroeconomics and fi nance, entails common cyclical feature restrictions in the dynamics of the vector error-correction representation (Vahid and Engle, 1993); something that has been already investigated in that VECM context by Johansen and Swensen (1999, 2011) but has not been discussed before with this new emphasis. We also provide the present value reduced rank constraints to be tested within the log-linear model. Our second contribution relates to forecasting time series that are subject to those long and short-run reduced rank restrictions. The reason why appropriate common cyclical feature restrictions might improve forecasting is because it finds natural exclusion restrictions preventing the estimation of useless parameters, which would otherwise contribute to the increase of forecast variance with no expected reduction in bias. We applied the techniques discussed in this paper to data known to be subject to present value restrictions, i.e. the online series maintained and up-dated by Shiller. We focus on three different data sets. The fi rst includes the levels of interest rates with long and short maturities, the second includes the level of real price and dividend for the S&P composite index, and the third includes the logarithmic transformation of prices and dividends. Our exhaustive investigation of several different multivariate models reveals that better forecasts can be achieved when restrictions are applied to them. Moreover, imposing short-run restrictions produce forecast winners 70% of the time for target variables of PVMs and 63.33% of the time when all variables in the system are considered.

Short-term successional dynamics of a macroalgal community in a stream from northwestern São Paulo State, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Fractal dynamics of heart rate variability for short term

The fractal analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) has been associated to the chaos theory. We evaluated the association of the fractal exponents of HRV with the time and frequency domain and geometric indices of HRV for short period. HRV was analyzed with a minimal number of 256 RR intervals in the time (SDNN-standard deviation of normal-to-normal R-R intervals, pNN50-percentage of adjacent RR intervals with a difference of duration greater than 50ms and RMSSD-root-mean square of differences between adjacent normal RR intervals in a time interval) and frequency (LF-low frequency, HF-high frequency and LF/HF ratio) domains. The geometric indexes were also analyzed (RRtri-triangular index, TINN-triangular interpolation of RR intervals and Poincaré plot) as well as short and long-term fractal exponents (alpha-1 and alpha-2) of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). We observed strong correlation of the alpha-1 exponent with RMSSD, pNN50, SDNN/RMSSD, LF (nu), HF (nu), LF/HF ratio, SD1 and SD1/Sd2 ratio. In conclusion, we suggest that the alpha-1 exponent could be applied for HRV analysis with a minimal number of 256 RR intervals.