Spinning reserve and emission unit commitment through stochastic optimization

This paper proposes a stochastic mixed-integer linear approach to deal with a short-term unit commitment problem with uncertainty on a deregulated electricity market that includes day-ahead bidding and bilateral contracts. The proposed approach considers the typically operation constraints on the thermal units and a spinning reserve. The uncertainty is due to the electricity prices, which are modeled by a scenario set, allowing an acceptable computation. Moreover, emission allowances are considered in a manner to allow for the consideration of environmental constraints. A case study to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach is presented and an assessment of the cost for the spinning reserve is obtained by a comparison between the situation with and without spinning reserve.

Otimização estocástica para a exploração de centrais de concentração solar considerando incerteza e risco

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Eletrotécnica

Energy resources management in three distinct time horizons considering a large variation in wind power

The intensive use of distributed generation based on renewable resources increases the complexity of power systems management, particularly the short-term scheduling. Demand response, storage units and electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles also pose new challenges to the short-term scheduling. However, these distributed energy resources can contribute significantly to turn the shortterm scheduling more efficient and effective improving the power system reliability. This paper proposes a short-term scheduling methodology based on two distinct time horizons: hour-ahead scheduling, and real-time scheduling considering the point of view of one aggregator agent. In each scheduling process, it is necessary to update the generation and consumption operation, and the storage and electric vehicles status. Besides the new operation condition, more accurate forecast values of wind generation and consumption are available, for the resulting of short-term and very short-term methods. In this paper, the aggregator has the main goal of maximizing his profits while, fulfilling the established contracts with the aggregated and external players.

Despacho Económico de um SEE com coordenação Hidrotérmica Departamento de Engenharia Electrotécnica

O Despacho económico de um sistema eléctrico de energia com a coordenação hidrotérmica tem como objectivo alcançar a operação óptima do sistema em um determinado período de tempo, ao menor custo possível, e com alto grau de fiabilidade. O problema é muito complexo, pois depende do grau de dificuldade em se prever os caudais dos afluentes, e da capacidade das albufeiras das centrais hídricas. De um modo geral, a produção térmica é determinada de modo a proporcionar o uso mais racional possível da água, dentro do contexto de incertezas quanto às afluências futuras, de modo a, por um lado manter o sistemas o mais económico possível, e por outro, evitar o desperdício energético implícito em descarregamentos de volumes de água turbináveis. Neste trabalho é proposta uma metodologia baseada em programação linear para a solução da coordenação hidrotérmica de curto prazo, e que permite obter custos-sombra de água em centrais hídricas com armazenamento. Esta metodologia foi posteriormente implementado num programa computacional em Microsoft Excel 2010 para a solução numa primeira fase, da rede de 24 barramentos do IEEE, e numa segunda fase, para a solução da Rede Nacional de Transporte referente ao ano de 2010. Para efeitos de análise e validação de dados, os dados provenientes do programa, são depois comparados aos dados dos relatórios da REN. Por último, os dados provenientes do programa em Excel são colocados e analisados no programa PowerWorld Simulator 8.0.

Gestão de Recursos Energéticos para Apoio à Operação dos Virtual Power Players

A liberalização dos mercados de energia elétrica e a crescente integração dos recursos energéticos distribuídos nas redes de distribuição, nomeadamente as unidades de produção distribuída, os sistemas de controlo de cargas através dos programas de demand response, os sistemas de armazenamento e os veículos elétricos, representaram uma evolução no paradigma de operação e gestão dos sistemas elétricos. Este novo paradigma de operação impõe o desenvolvimento de novas metodologias de gestão e controlo que permitam a integração de todas as novas tecnologias de forma eficiente e sustentável. O principal contributo deste trabalho reside no desenvolvimento de metodologias para a gestão de recursos energéticos no contexto de redes inteligentes, que contemplam três horizontes temporais distintos (24 horas, 1 hora e 5 minutos). As metodologias consideram os escalonamentos anteriores assim como as previsões atualizadas de forma a melhorar o desempenho total do sistema e consequentemente aumentar a rentabilidade dos agentes agregadores. As metodologias propostas foram integradas numa ferramenta de simulação, que servirá de apoio à decisão de uma entidade agregadora designada por virtual power player. Ao nível das metodologias desenvolvidas são propostos três algoritmos de gestão distintos, nomeadamente para a segunda (1 hora) e terceira fase (5 minutos) da ferramenta de gestão, diferenciados pela influência que os períodos antecedentes e seguintes têm no período em escalonamento. Outro aspeto relevante apresentado neste documento é o teste e a validação dos modelos propostos numa plataforma de simulação comercial. Para além das metodologias propostas, a aplicação permitiu validar os modelos dos equipamentos considerados, nomeadamente, ao nível das redes de distribuição e dos recursos energéticos distribuidos. Nesta dissertação são apresentados três casos de estudos, cada um com diferentes cenários referentes a cenários de operação futuros. Estes casos de estudos são importantes para verificar a viabilidade da implementação das metodologias e algoritmos propostos. Adicionalmente são apresentadas comparações das metodologias propostas relativamente aos resultados obtidos, complexidade de gestão em ambiente de simulação para as diferentes fases da ferramenta proposta e os benefícios e inconvenientes no uso da ferramenta proposta.

Long-Term Lamivudine Treatment of Children with Chronic Hepatitis B: Durability of Therapeutic Responses and Safety

Lamivudine has been demonstrated safe and efficacious in the short term in a large cohort of children with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), but optimal duration of treatment has not been elucidated and limited data on the safety of long-term lamivudine administration have been reported. In addition, the durability of favourable therapeutic outcomes after lamivudine therapy in children has not been well characterized. The aim of this study was to examine the safety of lamivudine and the durability of clinical responses in a group of children who received up to 3 years of treatment for CHB. One hundred and fifty-one children from centres in nine countries who had previously received lamivudine in a large prospective trial were enrolled. During the first year, children had been randomized to either lamivudine or placebo treatment. Subsequently, in a separate extension study, those who remained hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) positive were given lamivudine for up to 2 years and those who were HBeAg negative were observed for additional 2 years. Results of these studies have been previously reported. In this study, these children were followed for 2 additional years. Data gathered from medical record review included weight, height, signs and symptoms of hepatitis, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels, serologic markers, hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA levels and serious adverse events (SAEs). Other pharmacological treatments for CHB were allowed according to the practices of individual investigators and were documented. Subjects were divided into two groups for analysis, those who had achieved virological response (VR), defined as HBeAg negative and undetectable HBV DNA by the bDNA assay by the end of the extension study at 3 years, and those who had not. In those who had achieved VR by the end of the extension study, long-term durability of HBeAg seroconversion was 82% and >90% in those who had received lamivudine for 52 weeks and at least 2 years respectively. This compares to 75% for those who had achieved seroconversion after placebo. In those who had not achieved VR by the end of the extension study, an additional 11% did so by the end of the study; they had all received lamivudine in the previous trial, and none had received further treatment during the study. Eight children lost hepatitis B surface antigen during the study and all had received lamivudine at some point during the previous trials. Evaluation of safety data revealed no SAEs related to lamivudine. There was no effect of treatment on weight or height z scores. Clinically benign ALT flares (>10 times normal) were seen in 2% of children. Favourable outcomes from lamivudine treatment of CHB in children are maintained for at least several years after completion of treatment. Up to 3 years of lamivudine treatment is safe in children.

Medium-term cryopreservation of rabies virus samples

Introduction The cryopreservation of rabies virus has been described in detail in the literature. To date, little information is available on the use of cryoprotective agents for cold preservation of this virus, and the available data focus only on short-term virus preservation. In this study, we investigated the medium-term cryopreservation of samples of rabies virus using different cryopreservation protocols. Methods The cryopreservation protocols for the rabies virus samples were performed at -20°C and were divided according to the variables of time and cryoprotectant type used. The laboratory tests (intracerebral inoculation of mice, viral titration and direct immunofluorescence) were performed at regular intervals (360 and 720 days) to assess the viability of the viral samples according to the different preservation techniques used. Results After 1 year of cryopreservation, the fluorescence intensity of intracellular corpuscles of the rabies virus and the median survival time of the mice differed between the positive controls and the treatments with the cryoprotectants. After 2 years, most of the samples subjected to the cryopreservation protocols (including the controls) did not produce fluorescence. However, the virus samples exposed to the cryoprotectant sucrose (68% solution) responded positively in the direct immunofluorescence assay and in the intracerebral inoculation of the mice. Conclusions Medium-term cryopreservation of the rabies virus inactivates the viral sample. However, the cryoprotectant agent sucrose (68%) produces a preservative effect in cryopreserved rabies virus samples.

Strategic planning of electricity systems: Integrating renewable energies

Tese de Doutoramento - Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Industrial e Sistemas (PDEIS)

Eliminació simultània de fòsfor i nitrogen en aigües residuals, utilitzant microorganismes DPAO en un reactor discontinu seqüencial (SBR)

En aquest estudi es realitzà eliminació biològica simultània de fòsfor i nitrogen en un Reactor Discontinu Seqüencial (SBR), el qual conté una biomassa enriquida amb Organismes Desnitrificadors Acumuladors de Fòsfor (DPAO) que utilitzen com a única font de carboni l’àcid propiònic i com acceptors d’electrons: nitrit en la fase anòxica i oxigen en l’aeròbica. L’SBR opera amb cicle de 8 h alternant fase anaeròbica, anòxica i aeròbica. El seguiment del sistema es realitzà mitjançant mesures on-line (titrimetria) i off-line (quantificació d’àcid propiònic, nitrit i fòsfor), utilitzant l’HPLC per quantificar l’àcid propiònic i cromatografia iònica per les mesures de nitrit i fòsfor. Amb aquest sistema es pretén augmentar la captació de fòsfor en la fase anòxica fet que s’aconseguí realitzant diferents canvis al reactor per tal de maximitzar el consum de nitrit en aquesta fase, ja fos allargant el temps de fase o augmentant la concentració de biomassa. Aquest experiment ha suposat un augment de la captació de fòsfor (33 mg P-PO4 3-/L), de l’eliminació neta de fòsfor (17 mg P-PO4 3-/L) i de consum de nitrit (27 mg N-NO2-). Per altra banda, es pretenia veure els efectes a curt termini de l’eliminació de la fase aeròbica a partir del seguiment de 2 cicle puntuals i d’un cicle de 32 h sense fase aeròbica. En ambdós casos s’aconseguí una eliminació neta de fòsfor.

Validation and long-term evaluation of a modified on-line chiral analytical method for therapeutic drug monitoring of (R,S)-methadone in clinical samples.

Matrix effects, which represent an important issue in liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry or tandem mass spectrometry detection, should be closely assessed during method development. In the case of quantitative analysis, the use of stable isotope-labelled internal standard with physico-chemical properties and ionization behaviour similar to the analyte is recommended. In this paper, an example of the choice of a co-eluting deuterated internal standard to compensate for short-term and long-term matrix effect in the case of chiral (R,S)-methadone plasma quantification is reported. The method was fully validated over a concentration range of 5-800 ng/mL for each methadone enantiomer with satisfactory relative bias (-1.0 to 1.0%), repeatability (0.9-4.9%) and intermediate precision (1.4-12.0%). From the results obtained during validation, a control chart process during 52 series of routine analysis was established using both intermediate precision standard deviation and FDA acceptance criteria. The results of routine quality control samples were generally included in the +/-15% variability around the target value and mainly in the two standard deviation interval illustrating the long-term stability of the method. The intermediate precision variability estimated in method validation was found to be coherent with the routine use of the method. During this period, 257 trough concentration and 54 peak concentration plasma samples of patients undergoing (R,S)-methadone treatment were successfully analysed for routine therapeutic drug monitoring.

Adalimumab in acute sciatica reduces the long-term need for surgery: a 3-year follow-up of a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Two subcutaneous injections of adalimumab in severe acute sciatica significantly reduced the number of back operations in a short-term randomised controlled clinical trial. OBJECTIVE: To determine in a 3-year follow-up study whether the short-term benefit of adalimumab in sciatica is sustained over a longer period of time. METHODS: The primary outcome of this analysis was incident discectomy. Three years after randomisation, information on surgery could be retrieved in 56/61 patients (92%).A multivariate Cox proportional hazard models, adjusted for potential confounders, was used to determine factors predisposing to surgery. RESULTS: Twenty-three (41%) patients had back surgery within 3 years, 8/29 (28%) in the adalimumab group and 15/27 (56%) in the placebo group, p=0.04. Adalimumab injections reduced the need for back surgery by 61% (HR)=0.39 (95% CI 0.17 to 0.92). In a multivariate model, treatment with a tumour necrosis factor-α antagonist remained the strongest protective factor (HR=0.17, p=0.002). Other significant predictors of surgery were a good correlation between symptoms and MRI findings (HR=11.6, p=0.04), baseline intensity of leg pain (HR=1.3, p=0.06), intensity of back pain (HR=1.4, p=0.03) and duration of sickness leave (HR=1.01 per day, p=0.03). CONCLUSION: A short course of adalimumab in patients with severe acute sciatica significantly reduces the need for back surgery.

Longer-term impacts of mentoring, educational services, and incentives to learn: evidence from a randomized trial in the United States

This paper is the first to use a randomized trial in the US to analyze the short- and long-term educational and employment impacts of an afterschool program that offered disadvantaged high-school youth: mentoring, educational services, and financial rewards with the objective to improve high-school graduation and postsecondary schooling enrollment. The short-term hefty beneficial average impacts quickly faded away. Heterogeneity matters. While encouraging results are found for younger youth, and when the program is implemented in relatively small communities of 9th graders; detrimental longlived outcomes are found for males, and when case managers are partially compensated by incentive payments and students receive more regular reminders of incentives.

Laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass: initial 2-year experience.

BACKGROUND: Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGBP)-essentially a restrictive bariatric procedure-is currently considered the gold standard for the surgical treatment of morbid obesity. Open surgery in obese patients is associated with a high risk of cardiopulmonary complications, wound infection, and late incisional hernia. Laparoscopic surgery has been shown to reduce perioperative morbidity and to improve postoperative recovery for various procedures. Herein we present our results with laparoscopic RYGBP after an initial 2-year experience. METHODS: A prospective database was created in our department beginning without the first laparoscopic bariatric procedure. To provide a complete follow-up of 6 months, the results of all patients operated on between June 1999 and August 2001 were reviewed. Early surgical results, weight loss, correction of comorbidities, and improvement of quality of life were evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 107 patients were included. There were 82 women and 25 men, with a mean age of 39.7 years (range, 19-58). RYGBP was a primary procedure in 80 cases (49 morbidly obese and 31 superobese patients) and a reoperation after failure or complication of another bariatric operation in 27 cases. Mean duration of surgery was 168 min for morbidly obese patients, 196 min for surperobese patients, and 205 min for reoperated patients (p <0.01). Conversion to open surgery was necessary in two cases. A total of 22 patients (20.5%) developed complication. Nine of them (8.4%) required reoperation for leak (five cases, or 4.6%), bowel occlusion (three cases, or 2.8%), or subphrenic abscess (one case, or 0.9%). mortality was 0.9%. Major morbidity decreased over time (first two-thirds, 12.5%, last third, 2.7%). major morbidity decreased over time (first two-thirds, 12.5%; last third, 2.7%). Excess weight loss of -50% was achieved in >80% of the patients, corresponding to a loss of 15 body mass index (BMI) units in morbidly obese patients and 20 BMI units in superobese patients. In the vast majority of patients, comorbidities improved or disappeared over time and quality of life improved. CONCLUSIONS: Laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass is feasible, but it is a very complex operation. Indeed, it is associated with a long and steep learning curve, as reflected in the high number of major complications among our first 70 patients. The learning curve probably includes between 100 and 150 patients. With increasing experience, the morbidity rate becomes more acceptable and comparable to that of open RYGBP. The results in terms of weight loss and correction of comorbidities are similar to those obtained after open surgery, at least in the short term. However, only surgeons with extensive experience in advanced laparoscopic as well as bariatric surgery should attempt this procedure.

Population pharmacokinetics of imatinib in CML and GIST patients under long-term treatment

Imatinib (Glivec®) has transformed the treatment and short-term prognosis of chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) and gastrointestinal stromal tumour (GIST). However, the treatment must be taken indefinitely and is not devoid of inconvenience and toxicity. Moreover, resistance or escape from disease control occurs in a significant number of patients. Imatinib is a substrate of the cytochromes P450 CYP3A4/5 and of the multidrug transporter P glycoprotein (product of the MDR1 gene), and is also bound to the alpha1-acid glycoprotein (AAG) in plasma. Considering the large inter-individual differences in the expression and function of those systems, the disposition and clinical activity of imatinib can be expected to vary widely among patients, calling for dosage individualisation. The aim of this exploratory study was to determine the average pharmacokinetic parameters characterizing the disposition of imatinib in the target population, to assess their inter-individual variability, and to identify influential factors affecting them. A total of 321 plasma concentrations were measured in 59 patients receiving Glivec® at diverse dosage regimens, using a validated chromatographic method developed for this study. The results were analysed by non-linear mixed effect modelling (NONMEM). A one-compartment model with first-order absorption described the data appropriately, with an average apparent clearance of 12.4 l/h, a volume of distribution of 268 l and an absorption constant of 0.47 h-1. The clearance was affected by body weight, age and sex. No influences of interacting drugs were found. DNA samples were used for pharmacogenetic explorations. The MDR1 polymorphism 3435C>T and the AAG phenotype appears to modulate the disposition of imatinib. Large inter-individual variability (CV %) remained unexplained by the demographic covariates considered, both on clearance (40%) and distribution volume (71%). Together with intra-patient variability (34%), this translates into an 8-fold width of the 90%-prediction interval of plasma concentrations expected under a fixed dosing regimen. This is a strong argument to further investigate the possible usefulness of a therapeutic drug monitoring programme for imatinib. It may help in individualising the dosing regimen before overt disease progression or observation of treatment toxicity, thus improving both the long-term therapeutic effectiveness and tolerability of this drug.

Anti-TNF therapy in acute sciatica reduces the long-term need for surgery: A three-year follow-up of a randomized double blind placebo controlled trial

Introduction: Two subcutaneous injections of adalimumab in severeacute sciatica have demonstrated a significant benefit on the numberof back surgeries in a short-term randomized controlled clinical trial[1]. This 3-year follow-up study aimed to determine whether theshort-term benefit was sustained over a longer period of time.Methods: Information on surgery was retrieved in 56/61 patients(93%). We used a Cox proportional hazard models to determinefactors predisposing to surgery.Results: Twenty-three (41%) patients had back surgery within 3 years,8/29 (28%) in the adalimumab group and 15/ 27 (56%) in the placebogroup, p = 0.038. Adalimumab injections reduced the need for backsurgery by 61% (Hazard Ratio (HR): 0.39 (95% CI: 0.17-0.92). In amultivariate model, treatment with a TNF-α antagonist remained thestrongest protective factor (HR 0.17, p = 0.002). Other significantpredictors of surgery were a good correlation between symptomsand MRI findings (HR = 11.6, p = 0.04), baseline intensity of leg pain(HR = 1.3, p = 0.06), intensity of back pain (HR = 1.4, p = 0.03)and duration of sickness leave (HR = 1.01 per day, p = 0.03).Conclusion: A short course of adalimumab in patients with severeacute sciatica significantly reduces the need for back surgery.