Bayesian Estimation of Noise

In mathematical modeling the estimation of the model parameters is one of the most common problems. The goal is to seek parameters that fit to the measurements as well as possible. There is always error in the measurements which implies uncertainty to the model estimates. In Bayesian statistics all the unknown quantities are presented as probability distributions. If there is knowledge about parameters beforehand, it can be formulated as a prior distribution. The Bays’ rule combines the prior and the measurements to posterior distribution. Mathematical models are typically nonlinear, to produce statistics for them requires efficient sampling algorithms. In this thesis both Metropolis-Hastings (MH), Adaptive Metropolis (AM) algorithms and Gibbs sampling are introduced. In the thesis different ways to present prior distributions are introduced. The main issue is in the measurement error estimation and how to obtain prior knowledge for variance or covariance. Variance and covariance sampling is combined with the algorithms above. The examples of the hyperprior models are applied to estimation of model parameters and error in an outlier case.

Modeling reaction kinetics and mass transfer in ozonation in water solutions

This dissertation is based on four articles dealing with modeling of ozonation. The literature part of this considers some models for hydrodynamics in bubble column simulation. A literature review of methods for obtaining mass transfer coefficients is presented. The methods presented to obtain mass transfer are general models and can be applied to any gas-liquid system. Ozonation reaction models and methods for obtaining stoichiometric coefficients and reaction rate coefficients for ozonation reactions are discussed in the final section of the literature part. In the first article, ozone gas-liquid mass transfer into water in a bubble column was investigated for different pH values. A more general method for estimation of mass transfer and Henry’s coefficient was developed from the Beltrán method. The ozone volumetric mass transfer coefficient and the Henry’s coefficient were determined simultaneously by parameter estimation using a nonlinear optimization method. A minor dependence of the Henry’s law constant on pH was detected at the pH range 4 - 9. In the second article, a new method using the axial dispersion model for estimation of ozone self-decomposition kinetics in a semi-batch bubble column reactor was developed. The reaction rate coefficients for literature equations of ozone decomposition and the gas phase dispersion coefficient were estimated and compared with the literature data. The reaction order in the pH range 7-10 with respect to ozone 1.12 and 0.51 the hydroxyl ion were obtained, which is in good agreement with literature. The model parameters were determined by parameter estimation using a nonlinear optimization method. Sensitivity analysis was conducted using object function method to obtain information about the reliability and identifiability of the estimated parameters. In the third article, the reaction rate coefficients and the stoichiometric coefficients in the reaction of ozone with the model component p-nitrophenol were estimated at low pH of water using nonlinear optimization. A novel method for estimation of multireaction model parameters in ozonation was developed. In this method the concentration of unknown intermediate compounds is presented as a residual COD (chemical oxygen demand) calculated from the measured COD and the theoretical COD for the known species. The decomposition rate of p-nitrophenol on the pathway producing hydroquinone was found to be about two times faster than the p-nitrophenol decomposition rate on the pathway producing 4- nitrocatechol. In the fourth article, the reaction kinetics of p-nitrophenol ozonation was studied in a bubble column at pH 2. Using the new reaction kinetic model presented in the previous article, the reaction kinetic parameters, rate coefficients, and stoichiometric coefficients as well as the mass transfer coefficient were estimated with nonlinear estimation. The decomposition rate of pnitrophenol was found to be equal both on the pathway producing hydroquinone and on the path way producing 4-nitrocathecol. Comparison of the rate coefficients with the case at initial pH 5 indicates that the p-nitrophenol degradation producing 4- nitrocathecol is more selective towards molecular ozone than the reaction producing hydroquinone. The identifiability and reliability of the estimated parameters were analyzed with the Marcov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. @All rights reserved. No part of the publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of the author.

A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement -SCR-, under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

Pork Barrel politics in semi-democracies: the Spanish 'Parlamentary roads', 1874-1915

This paper analyzes the effects of parliamentary representation on road infrastructure expenditure during the Spanish Restoration. Using a panel dataset of Spanish provinces in 1880-1914 we find that the allocation of administrative resources among provinces depended both on the delegation characteristics (such as the share of MPs with party leadership positions, and their degree of electoral independence), and the regime"s global search for stability. These results point to the importance of electoral dynamics within semi-democratic political systems, and offer an example of the influence of government tactics on infrastructure allocation.

Pork Barrel politics in semi-democracies: the Spanish 'Parlamentary roads', 1874-1915

This paper analyzes the effects of parliamentary representation on road infrastructure expenditure during the Spanish Restoration. Using a panel dataset of Spanish provinces in 1880-1914 we find that the allocation of administrative resources among provinces depended both on the delegation characteristics (such as the share of MPs with party leadership positions, and their degree of electoral independence), and the regime"s global search for stability. These results point to the importance of electoral dynamics within semi-democratic political systems, and offer an example of the influence of government tactics on infrastructure allocation.

Nitração do fenol, um método em escala semi-micro para disciplina prática de 4 horas

A procedure for the nitration of phenol in a semi-micro scale, followed by separation of the formed orto- and para-nitrophenol isomers by column chromatography, is described. All the experiment, including determination of the melting point of the isolated products, require a period of 4 hours, and it is suitable for organic chemistry laboratory undergraduate courses.

Avaliação da salinização de açudes no semi-árido brasileiro por ICP-AES

The salt accumulation process in some reservoirs of regular and irregular use (from 10 to 50 years of constrution), located in the Southeast of Bahia State was evaluated. Inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry was used to evaluate the concentrations of Na, K, Ca and Mg in water samples from inside and upstream of the reservoirs. The results showed that for reservoirs of irregular use, the salt accumulation, indicated by the tracer Na, increases with the age of the reservoirs, however for the reservoirs of regular use the hydraulic retention time is the main parameter.

Estudo semi-empírico de ácidos hidroxâmicos: ácido formoidroxâmico e derivados do aleloquímico dimboa

Open chain hydroxamic acid (Hx) can exist as Z and E diastereomers of two tautomers, hydroxamic acid and hydroximic acid. The conformational stability of the formohydroxamic acid isomers evaluated by PM3 compared better to ab initio results from the literature than AM1 results. Structural data of the cyclic Hx 2,4-dihydroxy-7-metoxy-2H-1,4-benzoxazin-3(4 H)-one (DIMBOA) obtained by both semiempirical methods compared well to ab initio results. pKa data from the literature for derivatives of the aldolic isomer of DIMBOA were compared to the stability of the anions resulting from the loss of protons of their phenol and hydroxamic acid groups, determined as the difference in heat of formation between anionic and neutral forms, calculated by AM1 and PM3 methods. Good correlations between theoretical and experimental data were obtained for both semiempirical methods.

Models for the estimation of thermodynamic properties of layered double hydroxides: application to the study of their anion exchange characteristics

Several models for the estimation of thermodynamic properties of layered double hydroxides (LDHs) are presented. The predicted thermodynamic quantities calculated by the proposed models agree with experimental thermodynamic data. A thermodynamic study of the anion exchange process on LDHs is also made using the described models. Tables for the prediction of monovalent anion exchange selectivities on LDHs are provided. Reasonable agreement is found between the predicted and the experimental monovalent anion exchange selectivities.

Síntese de sulfadiazina e sulfadiazina de prata em escala semi-micro: prática experimental em síntese de fármacos

The total synthesis of sulfadiazine and silver sulfadiazine from readily available starting materials was adapted to semi-micro laboratory scale and is proposed as an experiment in drug synthesis for undergraduate courses.

Estimation of Water Circulation in a Mediterranean Salt Marsh and its Relationship with Flooding Causes

Variations in water volume in small depressions in Mediterranean salt marshes in Girona (Spain) are described and the potential causes for these variations analysed. Although the basins appear to be endorrheic, groundwater circulation is intense, as estimated from the difference between water volume observed and that expected from the balance precipitation / evaporation. The rate of variation in volume (VR = AV / VAt) may be used to estimate groundwater supply ('circulation'), since direct measurements of this parameter are impossible. Volume.conductivity figures can also be used to estimate the quantity of circulation, and to investigate the origin of water supplied to the system. The relationships between variations in the volume of water in the basins and the main causes of flooding are also analysed. Sea storms, rainfall levels and strong, dry northerly winds are suggested as the main causes of the variations in the volumes of basins. The relative importance assigned to these factors has changed, following the recent regulation of freshwater flows entering the system

Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods: Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results: We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion: Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On the other hand, we obtained detailed breast cancer survival functions that will be used for modeling the effect of screening and adjuvant treatments in Catalonia

Research on the suitability of organosolv semi-chemical triticale fibers as reinforcement for recycled hdpe composites

The main objective of this research was to study the feasibility of incorporating organosolv semi-chemical triticale fibers as the reinforcing element in recycled high density polyethylene (HDPE). In the first step, triticale fibers were characterized in terms of chemical composition and compared with other biomass species (wheat, rye, softwood, and hardwood). Then, organosolv semi-chemical triticale fibers were prepared by the ethanolamine process. These fibers were characterized in terms of its yield, kappa number, fiber length/diameter ratio, fines, and viscosity; the obtained results were compared with those of eucalypt kraft pulp. In the second step, the prepared fibers were examined as a reinforcing element for recycled HDPE composites. Coupled and non-coupled HDPE composites were prepared and tested for tensile properties. Results showed that with the addition of the coupling agent maleated polyethylene (MAPE), the tensile properties of composites were significantly improved, as compared to non-coupled samples and the plain matrix. Furthermore, the influence of MAPE on the interfacial shear strength (IFSS) was studied. The contributions of both fibers and matrix to the composite strength were also studied. This was possible by the use of a numerical iterative method based on the Bowyer-Bader and Kelly-Tyson equations

Determinação de hidrocarbonetos voláteis e semi-voláteis na atmosfera

This paper focuses: (i) the development of a measurement technique for the determination of atmospheric C2-C6 hydrocarbons with sampling in canisters and analysis by gas chromatography/flame ionisation detector (GC/FID), (ii) the improvement of an existent adsorption-sampling technique with Tenax TA tubes for the determination of C6-C11 hydrocarbons and analysis by GC/FID after thermal desorption and cryogenic concentration, (iii) the identification of compounds present in ambient air by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) for both canister and Tenax samples, (iv) a program of interlaboratorial comparison for quality control of C2-C11 analyses, and (v) the seasonal characterisation of ambient air C2-C11 hydrocarbons.

Cost estimation framework for modular product

Cost estimation is an important, but challenging process when designing a new product or a feature of it, verifying the product prices given by suppliers or planning a cost saving actions of existing products. It is even more challenging when the product is highly modular, not a bulk product. In general, cost estimation techniques can be divided into two main groups - qualitative and quantitative techniques - which can further be classified into more detailed methods. Generally, qualitative techniques are preferable when comparing alternatives and quantitative techniques when cost relationships can be found. The main objective of this thesis was to develop a method on how to estimate costs of internally manufactured and commercial elevator landing doors. Because of the challenging product structure, the proposed cost estimation framework is developed under three different levels based on past cost information available. The framework consists of features from both qualitative and quantitative cost estimation techniques. The starting point for the whole cost estimation process is an unambiguous, hierarchical product structure so that the product can be classified into controllable parts and is then easier to handle. Those controllable parts can then be compared to existing past cost knowledge of similar parts and create as accurate cost estimates as possible by that way.