Impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular events and mortality among older adults: meta-analysis of individual participant data from prospective cohort studies of the CHANCES consortium

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular mortality, acute coronary events, and stroke events in people aged 60 and older, and to calculate and report risk advancement periods for cardiovascular mortality in addition to traditional epidemiological relative risk measures.

DESIGN: Individual participant meta-analysis using data from 25 cohorts participating in the CHANCES consortium. Data were harmonised, analysed separately employing Cox proportional hazard regression models, and combined by meta-analysis.

RESULTS: Overall, 503,905 participants aged 60 and older were included in this study, of whom 37,952 died from cardiovascular disease. Random effects meta-analysis of the association of smoking status with cardiovascular mortality yielded a summary hazard ratio of 2.07 (95% CI 1.82 to 2.36) for current smokers and 1.37 (1.25 to 1.49) for former smokers compared with never smokers. Corresponding summary estimates for risk advancement periods were 5.50 years (4.25 to 6.75) for current smokers and 2.16 years (1.38 to 2.39) for former smokers. The excess risk in smokers increased with cigarette consumption in a dose-response manner, and decreased continuously with time since smoking cessation in former smokers. Relative risk estimates for acute coronary events and for stroke events were somewhat lower than for cardiovascular mortality, but patterns were similar.

CONCLUSIONS: Our study corroborates and expands evidence from previous studies in showing that smoking is a strong independent risk factor of cardiovascular events and mortality even at older age, advancing cardiovascular mortality by more than five years, and demonstrating that smoking cessation in these age groups is still beneficial in reducing the excess risk.

β-Blocker usage and colorectal cancer mortality:a nested case-control study in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink cohort

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological and laboratory studies suggest that β-blockers may reduce cancer progression in various cancer sites. The aim of this study was to conduct the first epidemiological investigation of the effect of post-diagnostic β-blocker usage on colorectal cancer-specific mortality in a large population-based colorectal cancer patient cohort.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: A nested case-control analysis was conducted within a cohort of 4794 colorectal cancer patients diagnosed between 1998 and 2007. Patients were identified from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink and confirmed using cancer registry data. Patients with a colorectal cancer- specific death (data from the Office of National Statistics death registration system) were matched to five controls. Conditional logistic regression was applied to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) according to β-blocker usage (data from GP-prescribing records).

RESULTS: Post-diagnostic β-blocker use was identified in 21.4% of 1559 colorectal cancer-specific deaths and 23.7% of their 7531 matched controls, with little evidence of an association (OR = 0.89 95% CI 0.78-1.02). Similar associations were found when analysing drug frequency, β-blocker type or specific drugs such as propranolol. There was some evidence of a weak reduction in all-cause mortality in β-blocker users (adjusted OR = 0.88; 95% CI 0.77-1.00; P = 0.04) which was in part due to the marked effect of atenolol on cardiovascular mortality (adjusted OR = 0.62; 95% CI 0.40-0.97; P = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS: In this novel, large UK population-based cohort of colorectal cancer patients, there was no evidence of an association between post-diagnostic β-blocker use and colorectal cancer-specific mortality.

CLINICAL TRIALS NUMBER: NCT00888797.

Neural dysfunction following respiratory viral infection as a cause of chronic cough hypersensitivity

Respiratory viral infections are a common cause of acute coughing, an irritating symptom for the patient and an important mechanism of transmission for the virus. Although poorly described, the inflammatory consequences of infection likely induce coughing by chemical (inflammatory mediator) or mechanical (mucous) activation of the cough-evoking sensory nerves that innervate the airway wall. For some individuals, acute cough can evolve into a chronic condition, in which cough and aberrant airway sensations long outlast the initial viral infection. This suggests that some viruses have the capacity to induce persistent plasticity in the neural pathways mediating cough. In this brief review we present the clinical evidence of acute and chronic neural dysfunction following viral respiratory tract infections and explore possible mechanisms by which the nervous system may undergo activation, sensitization and plasticity.

An audit of antimicrobial treatment of lower respiratory and urinary tract infections in a hospital setting

Objectives: To audit the quality of treatment of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) and urinary tract infections (UTIs) and to identify targets for antibiotic stewardship. Methods: The audit involved collecting data on admitted patients, who were diagnosed with LRTIs or UTIs and subsequently received antibiotic treatment (January 2009-April 2009). Key findings: The percentage adherence rate for hospital antibiotic policy was 68.6% (24/35). Documentation of the CURB-65 score was found in 80% (16/20) of the patients' clinical notes, for which 46.2% (6/13) of patients were treated according to their CURB- 65 score. The percentages of delayed and missed doses for all antibiotics were 21.7% (254/1171) and 8.6% (101/1171), respectively. The percentage of patients switched from intravenous to oral antibiotics in accordance with the policy was 58.5% (31/53). The mean length of stay for patients switched in line with the guidelines was 6.9 days (range: 2-18 days) compared with 13.2 days (range: 4-28 days) for patients treated with intravenous antibiotics >24 h after the intravenous to oral switch criteria were fulfilled; this equates to on average an extra 6.3 days of hospitalisation (p=0.01). Conclusions: The study identified a number of targets for quality improvement including adherence to antibiotic policy, documentation of the CURB-65 score in patients' notes and treating patients accordingly, addressing the issue of missed and delayed doses, and maintaining adherence to the hospital intravenous-to-oral antibiotic switch policy. The findings suggest that the quality of antibiotic prescribing could be improved by measuring and addressing such performance indicators.

Caregiving reduces mortality risk for most caregivers: a census-based record linkage study

Importance Countries with advanced welfare systems are increasingly relying on the input of informal caregivers and there are growing concerns for their mental and physical wellbeing. However, the evidence about the relationship between caregiving and mortality risk is less clear.

Methods A census-based record linkage study with mortality follow-up of thirty-three months. A total of 1,122,779 individuals including 183,842 caregivers, of whom 28.2% (51,927) were providing fifty or more hours caregiving per week.

Results Over thirty-three months of follow-up a total of 29,335 deaths occurred, with 2,443 of these to caregivers. Mortality risk for caregivers was lower than for non-caregivers (HR= 0.72: 95%CI=0.69, 0.75 in the fully adjusted model), and the lower risk was evident even for those providing fifty or more hours of caregiving per week (adjusted Hazard Ratio=0.77: 95%CI=0.71, 0.83 and 0.76: 95%CI=0.69, 0.83 for men and women respectively). There was no evidence that this relationship varied by either age or marital status. Even amongst people with chronic health problems such as poor mental health, caregivers had lower mortality risk than non-caregivers. Caregiving is associated with reduced mortality risk for most causes - for example, the risk of death from Ischaemic Heart Disease for caregivers providing fifty or more hours was 27% and 31% lower for men and for women respectively compared to non-caregivers (HR=0.73: 95%CI=0.60, 0.88 and HR=0.69: 95%CI=0.51, 0.92).

Conclusions This large population-based study confirms that for the majority of caregivers the beneficial effects of caregiving in terms of short-term mortality risk appear to outweigh any negative effects, even amongst people with significant health problems. These results underscore the need for a reappraisal of how caregiving is perceived.


Keywords: caregiving, carers, mortality, longitudinal follow-up.
marital status. Even amongst people with chronic health problems such as poor mental health, caregivers had lower mortality risk than non-caregivers. Caregiving is associated with reduced mortality risk for most causes - for example, the risk of death from Ischaemic Heart Disease for caregivers providing fifty or more hours was 27% and 31% lower for men and for women respectively compared to non-caregivers (HR=0.73: 95%CI=0.60, 0.88 and HR=0.69: 95%CI=0.51, 0.92).

Conclusions This large population-based study confirms that for the majority of caregivers the beneficial effects of caregiving in terms of short-term mortality risk appear to outweigh any negative effects, even amongst people with significant health problems. These results underscore the need for a reappraisal of how caregiving is perceived.

Which biomarkers are predictive specifically for cardiovascular or for non-cardiovascular mortality in men? Evidence from the Caerphilly Prospective Study (CaPS)

OBJECTIVE: To examine a panel of 28 biomarkers for prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and non-CVD mortality in a population-based cohort of men.

METHODS: Starting in 1979, middle-aged men in Caerphilly underwent detailed medical examination. Subsequently 2171 men were re-examined during 1989-1993, and fasting blood samples obtained from 1911 men (88%). Fibrinogen, viscosity and white cell count (WCC), routine biochemistry tests and lipids were analysed using fresh samples. Stored aliquots were later analysed for novel biomarkers. Statistical analysis of CVD and non-CVD mortality follow-up used competing risk Cox regression models with biomarkers in thirds tested at the 1% significance level after covariate adjustment.

RESULTS: During an average of 15.4years follow-up, troponin (subhazard ratio per third 1.71, 95% CI 1.46-1.99) and B-natriuretic peptide (BNP) (subhazard ratio per third 1.54, 95% CI 1.34-1.78) showed strong trends with CVD death but not with non-CVD death. WCC and fibrinogen showed similar weaker findings. Plasma viscosity, growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) were associated positively with both CVD death and non-CVD death while total cholesterol was associated positively with CVD death but negatively with non-CVD death. C-reactive protein (C-RP), alkaline phosphatase, gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), retinol binding protein 4 (RBP-4) and vitamin B6 were significantly associated only with non-CVD death, the last two negatively. Troponin, BNP and IL-6 showed evidence of diminishing associations with CVD mortality through follow-up.

CONCLUSION: Biomarkers for cardiac necrosis were strong, specific predictors of CVD mortality while many inflammatory markers were equally predictive of non-CVD mortality.

72 Potential for airborne bacterial contamination in an outpatient respiratory clinic

The Coxian phase-type distribution as a contribution to the multilevel model of in-hospital mortality

This paper presents multilevel models that utilize the Coxian phase-type distribution in order to be able to include a survival component in the model. The approach is demonstrated by modeling patient length of stay and in-hospital mortality in geriatric wards in Italy. The multilevel model is used to provide a means of controlling for the existence of possible intra-ward correlations, which may make patients within a hospital more alike in terms of experienced outcome than patients coming from different hospitals, everything else being equal. Within this multilevel model we introduce the use of the Coxian phase-type distribution to create a covariate that represents patient length of stay or stage (of hospital care). Results demonstrate that the use of the multilevel model for representing the in-patient mortality is successful and further enhanced by the inclusion of the Coxian phase-type distribution variable (stage covariate).

Vaccination and All Cause Child Mortality 1985-2011: Global Evidence from the Demographic and Health Surveys

Based on models with calibrated parameters for infection, case fatality rates, and vaccine efficacy, basic childhood vaccinations have been estimated to be highly cost effective. We estimate the association of vaccination with mortality directly from survey data. Using 149 cross-sectional Demographic and Health Surveys, we determine the relationship between vaccination coverage and under five mortality at the survey cluster level. Our data include approximately one million children in 68,490 clusters in 62 countries. We consider the childhood measles, Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG), Diphtheria-Pertussis-Tetanus (DPT), Polio, and maternal tetanus vaccinations. Using modified Poisson regression to estimate the relative risk of child mortality in each cluster, we also adjust for selection bias caused by the vaccination status of dead children not being reported. Childhood vaccination, and in particular measles and tetanus vaccination, is associated with substantial reductions in childhood mortality. We estimate that children in clusters with complete vaccination coverage have relative risk of mortality 0.73 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.68, 0.77) that of children in a cluster with no vaccination. While widely used, basic vaccines still have coverage rates well below 100% in many countries, and our results emphasize the effectiveness of increasing their coverage rates in order to reduce child mortality.

WHO guidelines for a healthy diet and mortality from cardiovascular disease in European and American elderly: the CHANCES project

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) represents a leading cause of mortality worldwide, especially in the elderly. Lowering the number of CVD deaths requires preventive strategies targeted on the elderly.

OBJECTIVE: The objective was to generate evidence on the association between WHO dietary recommendations and mortality from CVD, coronary artery disease (CAD), and stroke in the elderly aged ≥60 y.

DESIGN: We analyzed data from 10 prospective cohort studies from Europe and the United States comprising a total sample of 281,874 men and women free from chronic diseases at baseline. Components of the Healthy Diet Indicator (HDI) included saturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, mono- and disaccharides, protein, cholesterol, dietary fiber, and fruit and vegetables. Cohort-specific HRs adjusted for sex, education, smoking, physical activity, and energy and alcohol intakes were pooled by using a random-effects model.

RESULTS: During 3,322,768 person-years of follow-up, 12,492 people died of CVD. An increase of 10 HDI points (complete adherence to an additional WHO guideline) was, on average, not associated with CVD mortality (HR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.86, 1.03), CAD mortality (HR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.85, 1.14), or stroke mortality (HR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.88, 1.03). However, after stratification of the data by geographic region, adherence to the HDI was associated with reduced CVD mortality in the southern European cohorts (HR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.79, 0.96; I(2) = 0%) and in the US cohort (HR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.83, 0.87; I(2) = not applicable).

CONCLUSION: Overall, greater adherence to the WHO dietary guidelines was not significantly associated with CVD mortality, but the results varied across regions. Clear inverse associations were observed in elderly populations in southern Europe and the United States.

Smoking and All-cause Mortality in Older Adults: Results From the CHANCES Consortium

INTRODUCTION: Smoking is known to be a major cause of death among middle-aged adults, but evidence on its impact and the benefits of smoking cessation among older adults has remained limited. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the influence of smoking and smoking cessation on all-cause mortality in people aged ≥60 years.

METHODS: Relative mortality and mortality rate advancement periods (RAPs) were estimated by Cox proportional hazards models for the population-based prospective cohort studies from Europe and the U.S. (CHANCES [Consortium on Health and Ageing: Network of Cohorts in Europe and the U.S.]), and subsequently pooled by individual participant meta-analysis. Statistical analyses were performed from June 2013 to March 2014.

RESULTS: A total of 489,056 participants aged ≥60 years at baseline from 22 population-based cohort studies were included. Overall, 99,298 deaths were recorded. Current smokers had 2-fold and former smokers had 1.3-fold increased mortality compared with never smokers. These increases in mortality translated to RAPs of 6.4 (95% CI=4.8, 7.9) and 2.4 (95% CI=1.5, 3.4) years, respectively. A clear positive dose-response relationship was observed between number of currently smoked cigarettes and mortality. For former smokers, excess mortality and RAPs decreased with time since cessation, with RAPs of 3.9 (95% CI=3.0, 4.7), 2.7 (95% CI=1.8, 3.6), and 0.7 (95% CI=0.2, 1.1) for those who had quit <10, 10 to 19, and ≥20 years ago, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: Smoking remains as a strong risk factor for premature mortality in older individuals and cessation remains beneficial even at advanced ages. Efforts to support smoking abstinence at all ages should be a public health priority.

Induction and antagonism of antiviral responses in respiratory syncytial virus-infected pediatric airway epithelium.

Airway epithelium is the primary target of many respiratory viruses. However, virus induction and antagonism of host responses by human airway epithelium remains poorly understood. To address this, we developed a model of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection based on well- differentiated pediatric primary bronchial epithelial cell cultures (WD-PBECs) that mimics hallmarks of RSV disease in infants. RSV is the most important respiratory viral pathogen in young infants worldwide. We found that RSV induces a potent antiviral state in WD-PBECs that was mediated in part by secreted factors, including interferon lambda-1 (IFNλ1)/IL-29. In contrast, type I interferons were not detected following RSV infection of WD-PBECs., Interferon (IFN) responses in RSV-infected WD-PBECs reflected those in lower airway samples from RSV-hospitalized infants. In view of the prominence of IL-29, we determined whether recombinant IL-29 treatment of WD-PBECs before or after infection abrogated RSV replication. Interestingly, IL-29 demonstrated prophylactic, but not therapeutic, potential against RSV. The absence of therapeutic potential reflected effective RSV antagonism of IFN-mediated antiviral responses in infected cells. Our data are consistent with RSV non-structural proteins 1 and/or 2 perturbing the Jak-STAT signaling pathway, with concomitant reduced expression of antiviral effector molecules, such as MxA/B. Antagonism of Jak-STAT signaling was restricted to RSV-infected cells in WD-PBEC cultures. Importantly, our study provides the rationale to further explore IL-29 as a novel RSV prophylactic.

Generation and Characterization of ALX-0171, a Potent Novel Therapeutic Nanobody for the Treatment of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is an important causative agent of lower respiratory tract infections in infants and elderly. Its fusion (F) protein is critical for virus infection. It is targeted by several investigational antivirals and by palivizumab, a humanised monoclonal antibody used prophylactically in infants considered at high risk of severe RSV disease. ALX-0171 is a trimeric Nanobody that binds the antigenic site II of RSV F-protein with subnanomolar affinity. ALX-0171 demonstrated superior in vitro neutralisation compared to palivizumab against prototypic RSV A and B strains. Moreover, ALX-0171 completely blocked replication below limit of detection in 87% of the viruses tested versus 18% for palivizumab at a fixed concentration. Importantly, ALX-0171 was highly effective in reducing both nasal and lung RSV titers when delivered prophylactically or therapeutically directly to the lungs of cotton rats. ALX-0171 represents a potent novel antiviral compound with significant potential to treat RSV-mediated disease.

Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles

OBJECTIVE: Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland.

METHODS: CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted.

RESULTS: Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS: Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity.