A New Index of Financial Conditions

We use factor augmented vector autoregressive models with time-varying coefficients to construct a financial conditions index. The time-variation in the parameters allows for the weights attached to each financial variable in the index to evolve over time. Furthermore, we develop methods for dynamic model averaging or selection which allow the financial variables entering into the FCI to change over time. We discuss why such extensions of the existing literature are important and show them to be so in an empirical application involving a wide range of financial variables.

Threats from climate change to terrestrial vertebrate hotspots in europe.

We identified hotspots of terrestrial vertebrate species diversity in Europe and adjacent islands. Moreover, we assessed the extent to which by the end of the 21(st) century such hotspots will be exposed to average monthly temperature and precipitation patterns which can be regarded as extreme if compared to the climate experienced during 1950-2000. In particular, we considered the entire European sub-continent plus Turkey and a total of 1149 species of terrestrial vertebrates. For each species, we developed species-specific expert-based distribution models (validated against field data) which we used to calculate species richness maps for mammals, breeding birds, amphibians, and reptiles. Considering four global circulation model outputs and three emission scenarios, we generated an index of risk of exposure to extreme climates, and we used a bivariate local Moran's I to identify the areas with a significant association between hotspots of diversity and high risk of exposure to extreme climates. Our results outline that the Mediterranean basin represents both an important hotspot for biodiversity and especially for threatened species for all taxa. In particular, the Iberian and Italian peninsulas host particularly high species richness as measured over all groups, while the eastern Mediterranean basin is particularly rich in amphibians and reptiles; the islands (both Macaronesian and Mediterranean) host the highest richness of threatened species for all taxa occurs. Our results suggest that the main hotspots of biodiversity for terrestrial vertebrates may be extensively influenced by the climate change projected to occur over the coming decades, especially in the Mediterranean bioregion, posing serious concerns for biodiversity conservation.

North South Survey of Children's Height, Weight and Body Mass Index, 2002

As part of a North South Survey of Childrens Oral Health conducted in Ireland in 2001/’02 [1], the heights and weights of a representative sample of children and adolescents age 4-16 years was measured. Data were collected by 34 teams of trained and calibrated dentists and dental nurses for 17,518 children aged 4-16 in the Republic of Ireland (RoI) and 2,099 in Northern Ireland (NI). This report presents the results of the study which provide a baseline measurement of Childrens height and weight against which future change can be measured. By comparing these data with international norms we can estimate the current prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents in Ireland.

Assessing the Relationship between the Baseline Value of a Continuous Variable and Subsequent Change over Time

Analyzing the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change of a continuous variable is a frequent matter of inquiry in cohort studies. These analyses are surprisingly complex, particularly if only two waves of data are available. It is unclear for non-biostatisticians where the complexity of this analysis lies and which statistical method is adequate.With the help of simulated longitudinal data of body mass index in children,we review statistical methods for the analysis of the association between the baseline value and subsequent change, assuming linear growth with time. Key issues in such analyses are mathematical coupling, measurement error, variability of change between individuals, and regression to the mean. Ideally, it is better to rely on multiple repeated measurements at different times and a linear random effects model is a standard approach if more than two waves of data are available. If only two waves of data are available, our simulations show that Blomqvist's method - which consists in adjusting for measurement error variance the estimated regression coefficient of observed change on baseline value - provides accurate estimates. The adequacy of the methods to assess the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change depends on the number of data waves, the availability of information on measurement error, and the variability of change between individuals.

Does the mechanical work in running change during the VO2 slow component?

PURPOSE: The origin of the slow component is not fully understood. The mechanical hypothesis is one of the potential factors, because an increase in external mechanical work with fatigue was previously reported for a constant velocity run. The purpose of this study was to determine whether a change in mechanical work could occur during the development of the VO2 slow component under the effect of fatigue. METHODS: Twelve regional-level competitive runners performed a square-wave transition, corresponding to 95% of the speed associated with peak VO2 obtained during an incremental test. The VO2 response was fit with a classical model including two exponential functions. A specific treadmill with three-dimensional force transducers was used to measure the ground reaction force. Kinetic work (W(kin)), potential work (W(pot)), external work (W(ext)), and an index of internal work (W(int)) per unit of distance were quantified continuously. RESULTS: During the slow component of VO2, a significant increase in W (P< 0.01), no change in W, and a significant decrease in W and W index (P< 0.05, P< 0.001, respectively) were observed. CONCLUSION: The present study showed that the slow component of VO2 did not result partly from a change in mechanical work under the effect of fatigue. Nevertheless, the decrease in stride frequency (P< 0.001) and contact time (P< 0.001) suggested an alternative mechanical explanation. The slow component during running may be due to the cost of generating force or to alterations in the storage and recoil of elastic energy, and not to the external mechanical work.

Macronutrient composition of the diet and prospective weight change in participants of the EPIC-PANACEA study.

BACKGROUND The effect of the macronutrient composition of the usual diet on long term weight maintenance remains controversial. METHODS 373,803 subjects aged 25-70 years were recruited in 10 European countries (1992-2000) in the PANACEA project of the EPIC cohort. Diet was assessed at baseline using country-specific validated questionnaires and weight and height were measured at baseline and self-reported at follow-up in most centers. The association between weight change after 5 years of follow-up and the iso-energetic replacement of 5% of energy from one macronutrient by 5% of energy from another macronutrient was assessed using multivariate linear mixed-models. The risk of becoming overweight or obese after 5 years was investigated using multivariate Poisson regressions stratified according to initial Body Mass Index. RESULTS A higher proportion of energy from fat at the expense of carbohydrates was not significantly associated with weight change after 5 years. However, a higher proportion of energy from protein at the expense of fat was positively associated with weight gain. A higher proportion of energy from protein at the expense of carbohydrates was also positively associated with weight gain, especially when carbohydrates were rich in fibre. The association between percentage of energy from protein and weight change was slightly stronger in overweight participants, former smokers, participants ≥60 years old, participants underreporting their energy intake and participants with a prudent dietary pattern. Compared to diets with no more than 14% of energy from protein, diets with more than 22% of energy from protein were associated with a 23-24% higher risk of becoming overweight or obese in normal weight and overweight subjects at baseline. CONCLUSION Our results show that participants consuming an amount of protein above the protein intake recommended by the American Diabetes Association may experience a higher risk of becoming overweight or obese during adult life.

Responsiveness of the Multiple Sclerosis International Quality of Life questionnaire to disability change: a longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND Responsiveness, defined as the ability to detect a meaningful change, is a core psychometric property of an instrument measuring quality of life (QoL) rarely reported in multiple sclerosis (MS) studies. OBJECTIVE To assess the responsiveness of the Multiple Sclerosis International Quality of Life (MusiQoL) questionnaire to change in disability over 24 months, defined by change in the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score. METHODS Patients with MS were enrolled into a multicenter, longitudinal observational study. QoL was assessed using both the MusiQoL and the 36-Item Short-Form (SF-36) instruments at baseline and every 6 months thereafter up to month 24; neurological assessments, including EDSS score, were performed at each evaluation. RESULTS The 24-month EDSS was available for 524 patients. In the 107 worsened patients, two specific dimensions of MusiQoL, the sentimental and sexual life and the relationships with health care system dimensions, and 'physical' scores of SF-36 showed responsiveness. CONCLUSIONS Whereas specific dimensions of MusiQoL identified EDSS changes, the MusiQoL index did not detect disability changes in worsened MS patients in a 24-month observational study. Future responsiveness validation studies should include longer follow-up and more representative samples.

Pattern of recurrence of early breast cancer is different according to intrinsic subtype and proliferation index.

INTRODUCTION Recurrence risk in breast cancer varies throughout the follow-up time. We examined if these changes are related to the level of expression of the proliferation pathway and intrinsic subtypes. METHODS Expression of estrogen and progesterone receptor, Ki-67, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2), epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and cytokeratin 5/6 (CK 5/6) was performed on tissue-microarrays constructed from a large and uniformly managed series of early breast cancer patients (N = 1,249). Subtype definitions by four biomarkers were as follows: luminal A (ER + and/or PR+, HER2-, Ki-67 <14), luminal B (ER + and/or PR+, HER2-, Ki-67 ≥14), HER2-enriched (any ER, any PR, HER2+, any Ki-67), triple-negative (ER-, PR-, HER2-, any Ki-67). Subtype definitions by six biomarkers were as follows: luminal A (ER + and/or PR+, HER2-, Ki-67 <14, any CK 5/6, any EGFR), luminal B (ER + and/or PR+, HER2-, Ki-67 ≥14, any CK 5/6, any EGFR), HER2-enriched (ER-, PR-, HER2+, any Ki-67, any CK 5/6, any EGFR), Luminal-HER2 (ER + and/or PR+, HER2+, any Ki-67, any CK 5/6, any EGFR), Basal-like (ER-, PR-, HER2-, any Ki-67, CK5/6+ and/or EGFR+), triple-negative nonbasal (ER-, PR-, HER2-, any Ki-67, CK 5/6-, EGFR-). Each four- or six-marker defined intrinsic subtype was divided in two groups, with Ki-67 <14% or with Ki-67 ≥14%. Recurrence hazard rate function was determined for each intrinsic subtype as a whole and according to Ki-67 value. RESULTS Luminal A displayed a slow risk increase, reaching its maximum after three years and then remained steady. Luminal B presented most of its relapses during the first five years. HER2-enriched tumors show a peak of recurrence nearly twenty months post-surgery, with a greater risk in Ki-67 ≥14%. However a second peak occurred at 72 months but the risk magnitude was greater in Ki-67 <14%. Triple negative tumors with low proliferation rate display a smooth risk curve, but with Ki-67 ≥14% show sharp peak at nearly 18 months. CONCLUSIONS Each intrinsic subtype has a particular pattern of relapses over time which change depending on the level of activation of the proliferation pathway assessed by Ki-67. These findings could have clinical implications both on adjuvant treatment trial design and on the recommendations concerning the surveillance of patients.

Obesity trends and body mass index changes after starting antiretroviral treatment : the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: The factors that contribute to increasing obesity rates in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive persons and to body mass index (BMI) increase that typically occurs after starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) are incompletely characterized. METHODS: We describe BMI trends in the entire Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) population and investigate the effects of demographics, HIV-related factors, and ART on BMI change in participants with data available before and 4 years after first starting ART. RESULTS: In the SHCS, overweight/obesity prevalence increased from 13% in 1990 (n = 1641) to 38% in 2012 (n = 8150). In the participants starting ART (n = 1601), mean BMI increase was 0.92 kg/m(2) per year (95% confidence interval, .83-1.0) during year 0-1 and 0.31 kg/m(2) per year (0.29-0.34) during years 1-4. In multivariable analyses, annualized BMI change during year 0-1 was associated with older age (0.15 [0.06-0.24] kg/m(2)) and CD4 nadir <199 cells/µL compared to nadir >350 (P < .001). Annualized BMI change during years 1-4 was associated with CD4 nadir <100 cells/µL compared to nadir >350 (P = .001) and black compared to white ethnicity (0.28 [0.16-0.37] kg/m(2)). Individual ART combinations differed little in their contribution to BMI change. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing obesity rates in the SHCS over time occurred at the same time as aging of the SHCS population, demographic changes, earlier ART start, and increasingly widespread ART coverage. Body mass index increase after ART start was typically biphasic, the BMI increase in year 0-1 being as large as the increase in years 1-4 combined. The effect of ART regimen on BMI change was limited.

Bladder cancer index: cross-cultural adaptation into Spanish and psychometric evaluation.

BACKGROUND The Bladder Cancer Index (BCI) is so far the only instrument applicable across all bladder cancer patients, independent of tumor infiltration or treatment applied. We developed a Spanish version of the BCI, and assessed its acceptability and metric properties. METHODS For the adaptation into Spanish we used the forward and back-translation method, expert panels, and cognitive debriefing patient interviews. For the assessment of metric properties we used data from 197 bladder cancer patients from a multi-center prospective study. The Spanish BCI and the SF-36 Health Survey were self-administered before and 12 months after treatment. Reliability was estimated by Cronbach's alpha. Construct validity was assessed through the multi-trait multi-method matrix. The magnitude of change was quantified by effect sizes to assess responsiveness. RESULTS Reliability coefficients ranged 0.75-0.97. The validity analysis confirmed moderate associations between the BCI function and bother subscales for urinary (r = 0.61) and bowel (r = 0.53) domains; conceptual independence among all BCI domains (r ≤ 0.3); and low correlation coefficients with the SF-36 scores, ranging 0.14-0.48. Among patients reporting global improvement at follow-up, pre-post treatment changes were statistically significant for the urinary domain and urinary bother subscale, with effect sizes of 0.38 and 0.53. CONCLUSIONS The Spanish BCI is well accepted, reliable, valid, responsive, and similar in performance compared to the original instrument. These findings support its use, both in Spanish and international studies, as a valuable and comprehensive tool for assessing quality of life across a wide range of bladder cancer patients.

Validation transculturelle de l'Oswestry disability index en français [Cross-cultural validation of the Oswestry disability index in French]

AIM: The aim of this study was to interpret and validate a French version of the Oswestry disability index (ODI), using a cross-cultural validation method. The validity and reliability of the questionnaire was assessed in order to ensure the psychometric characteristics. METHOD: The cross-cultural validation was carried out according to Beaton's methodology. The study was conducted with 41 patients suffering from low back pain. The correlation between the ODI and the Roland-Morris disability questionnaire (RMDQ), the medical outcome survey short form-36 (MOS SF-36) and a pain visual analogical scale (VAS) was assessed. RESULTS: The validity of the Oswestry questionnaire was studied using the Cronbach Alpha coefficient calculation: 0.87 (n=36). The significant correlation between the ODI and RMDQ was 0.8 (P<0.001, n=41) and 0.71 (P<0.001, n=36) for the pain VAS. The correlation between the ODI and certain subscales (physical functioning 0.7 (P<0.001, n=41), physical role 0.49 et bodily pain 0.73 (P<0.001, n=41)) of the MOS SF-36 were equally significant. The reproducibility of the ODI was calculated using the Wilcoxon matched pairs test: there was no significant difference for eight out of ten sections or for the final score. CONCLUSION: This French translation of the ODI should be considered as valid and reliable. It should be used for any future clinical studies carried out using French language patients. Complimentary studies must be completed in order to assess its sensitivity to change in the event of any modifications in the patients functional capacity.

Updating and validating the Charlson comorbidity index and score for risk adjustment in hospital discharge abstracts using data from 6 countries.

With advances in the effectiveness of treatment and disease management, the contribution of chronic comorbid diseases (comorbidities) found within the Charlson comorbidity index to mortality is likely to have changed since development of the index in 1984. The authors reevaluated the Charlson index and reassigned weights to each condition by identifying and following patients to observe mortality within 1 year after hospital discharge. They applied the updated index and weights to hospital discharge data from 6 countries and tested for their ability to predict in-hospital mortality. Compared with the original Charlson weights, weights generated from the Calgary, Alberta, Canada, data (2004) were 0 for 5 comorbidities, decreased for 3 comorbidities, increased for 4 comorbidities, and did not change for 5 comorbidities. The C statistics for discriminating in-hospital mortality between the new score generated from the 12 comorbidities and the Charlson score were 0.825 (new) and 0.808 (old), respectively, in Australian data (2008), 0.828 and 0.825 in Canadian data (2008), 0.878 and 0.882 in French data (2004), 0.727 and 0.723 in Japanese data (2008), 0.831 and 0.836 in New Zealand data (2008), and 0.869 and 0.876 in Swiss data (2008). The updated index of 12 comorbidities showed good-to-excellent discrimination in predicting in-hospital mortality in data from 6 countries and may be more appropriate for use with more recent administrative data.

How robust are global conservation priorities to climate change?

International conservation organisations have identified priority areas for biodiversity conservation. These global-scale prioritisations affect the distribution of funds for conservation interventions. As each organisation has a different focus, each prioritisation scheme is determined by different decision criteria and the resultant priority areas vary considerably. However, little is known about how the priority areas will respond to the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we examined the robustness of eight global-scale prioritisations to climate change under various climate predictions from seven global circulation models. We developed a novel metric of the climate stability for 803 ecoregions based on a recently introduced method to estimate the overlap of climate envelopes. The relationships between the decision criteria and the robustness of the global prioritisation schemes were statistically examined. We found that decision criteria related to level of endemism and landscape fragmentation were strongly correlated with areas predicted to be robust to a changing climate. Hence, policies that prioritise intact areas due to the likely cost efficiency, and assumptions related to the potential to mitigate the impacts of climate change, require further examination. Our findings will help determine where additional management is required to enable biodiversity to adapt to the impacts of climate change

Reliability and validity of the cross-culturally adapted French version of the Core Outcome Measures Index (COMI) in patients with low back pain.

PURPOSE: To conduct a cross-cultural adaptation of the Core Outcome Measures Index (COMI) into French according to established guidelines. METHODS: Seventy outpatients with chronic low back pain were recruited from six spine centres in Switzerland and France. They completed the newly translated COMI, and the Roland Morris disability (RMQ), Dallas Pain (DPQ), adjectival pain rating scale, WHO Quality of Life, and EuroQoL-5D questionnaires. After ~14 days RMQ and COMI were completed again to assess reproducibility; a transition question (7-point Likert scale; "very much worse" through "no change" to "very much better") indicated any change in status since the first questionnaire. RESULTS: COMI whole scores displayed no floor effects and just 1.5% ceiling effects. The scores for the individual COMI items correlated with their corresponding full-length reference questionnaire with varying strengths of correlation (0.33-0.84, P < 0.05). COMI whole scores showed a very good correlation with the "multidimensional" DPQ global score (Rho = 0.71). 55 patients (79%) returned a second questionnaire with no/minimal change in their back status. The reproducibility of individual COMI 5-point items was good, with test-retest differences within one grade ranging from 89% for 'social/work disability' to 98% for 'symptom-specific well-being'. The intraclass correlation coefficient for the COMI whole score was 0.85 (95% CI 0.76-0.91). CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, the French version of this short, multidimensional questionnaire showed good psychometric properties, comparable to those reported for German and Spanish versions. The French COMI represents a valuable tool for future multicentre clinical studies and surgical registries (e.g. SSE Spine Tango) in French-speaking countries.

Assessing farmers' vulnerability to climate change : a case study in Karnataka, India

In the context of observed climate change impacts and their effect on agriculture and crop production, this study intends to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods through a study case in Karnataka, India. The social approach of climate change vulnerability in this study case includes defining and exploring factors that determine farmers’ vulnerability in four villages. Key informant interviews, farmer workshops and structured household interviews were used for data collection. To analyse the data, we adapted and applied three vulnerability indices: Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), LVI-IPCC and the Livelihood Effect Index (LEI), and used descriptive statistical methods. The data was analysed at two scales: whole sample-level and household level. The results from applying the indices for the whole-sample level show that this community's vulnerability to climate change is moderate, whereas the household-level results show that most of the households' vulnerability is high-very high, while 15 key drivers of vulnerability were identified. Results and limitations of the study are discussed under the rural livelihoods framework, in which the indices are based, allowing a better understanding of the social behaviouraltrends, as well as an holistic and integrated view of the climate change, agriculture, and livelihoods processes shaping vulnerability. We conclude that these indices, although a straightforward method to assess vulnerability, have limitations that could account for inaccuracies and inability to be standardised for benchmarking, therefore we stress the need for further research.