Short-term electricity price forecasting using wavelet and SVM techniques

In deregulated electricity market, modeling and forecasting the spot price present a number of challenges. By applying wavelet and support vector machine techniques, a new time series model for short term electricity price forecasting has been developed in this paper. The model employs both historical price and other important information, such as load capacity and weather (temperature), to forecast the price of one or more time steps ahead. The developed model has been evaluated with the actual data from Australian National Electricity Market. The simulation results demonstrated that the forecast model is capable of forecasting the electricity price with a reasonable forecasting accuracy.

Design Strategies and Modelling of Low-Power Sigma-Delta Analog-to-Digital Converters

Oggi, i dispositivi portatili sono diventati la forza trainante del mercato consumer e nuove sfide stanno emergendo per aumentarne le prestazioni, pur mantenendo un ragionevole tempo di vita della batteria. Il dominio digitale è la miglior soluzione per realizzare funzioni di elaborazione del segnale, grazie alla scalabilità della tecnologia CMOS, che spinge verso l'integrazione a livello sub-micrometrico. Infatti, la riduzione della tensione di alimentazione introduce limitazioni severe per raggiungere un range dinamico accettabile nel dominio analogico. Minori costi, minore consumo di potenza, maggiore resa e una maggiore riconfigurabilità sono i principali vantaggi dell'elaborazione dei segnali nel dominio digitale. Da più di un decennio, diverse funzioni puramente analogiche sono state spostate nel dominio digitale. Ciò significa che i convertitori analogico-digitali (ADC) stanno diventando i componenti chiave in molti sistemi elettronici. Essi sono, infatti, il ponte tra il mondo digitale e analogico e, di conseguenza, la loro efficienza e la precisione spesso determinano le prestazioni globali del sistema. I convertitori Sigma-Delta sono il blocco chiave come interfaccia in circuiti a segnale-misto ad elevata risoluzione e basso consumo di potenza. I tools di modellazione e simulazione sono strumenti efficaci ed essenziali nel flusso di progettazione. Sebbene le simulazioni a livello transistor danno risultati più precisi ed accurati, questo metodo è estremamente lungo a causa della natura a sovracampionamento di questo tipo di convertitore. Per questo motivo i modelli comportamentali di alto livello del modulatore sono essenziali per il progettista per realizzare simulazioni veloci che consentono di identificare le specifiche necessarie al convertitore per ottenere le prestazioni richieste. Obiettivo di questa tesi è la modellazione del comportamento del modulatore Sigma-Delta, tenendo conto di diverse non idealità come le dinamiche dell'integratore e il suo rumore termico. Risultati di simulazioni a livello transistor e dati sperimentali dimostrano che il modello proposto è preciso ed accurato rispetto alle simulazioni comportamentali.

Designing a Computer Vision System for Underwater Robotic Interventions

This thesis deals with the challenging problem of designing systems able to perceive objects in underwater environments. In the last few decades research activities in robotics have advanced the state of art regarding intervention capabilities of autonomous systems. State of art in fields such as localization and navigation, real time perception and cognition, safe action and manipulation capabilities, applied to ground environments (both indoor and outdoor) has now reached such a readiness level that it allows high level autonomous operations. On the opposite side, the underwater environment remains a very difficult one for autonomous robots. Water influences the mechanical and electrical design of systems, interferes with sensors by limiting their capabilities, heavily impacts on data transmissions, and generally requires systems with low power consumption in order to enable reasonable mission duration. Interest in underwater applications is driven by needs of exploring and intervening in environments in which human capabilities are very limited. Nowadays, most underwater field operations are carried out by manned or remotely operated vehicles, deployed for explorations and limited intervention missions. Manned vehicles, directly on-board controlled, expose human operators to risks related to the stay in field of the mission, within a hostile environment. Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROV) currently represent the most advanced technology for underwater intervention services available on the market. These vehicles can be remotely operated for long time but they need support from an oceanographic vessel with multiple teams of highly specialized pilots. Vehicles equipped with multiple state-of-art sensors and capable to autonomously plan missions have been deployed in the last ten years and exploited as observers for underwater fauna, seabed, ship wrecks, and so on. On the other hand, underwater operations like object recovery and equipment maintenance are still challenging tasks to be conducted without human supervision since they require object perception and localization with much higher accuracy and robustness, to a degree seldom available in Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUV). This thesis reports the study, from design to deployment and evaluation, of a general purpose and configurable platform dedicated to stereo-vision perception in underwater environments. Several aspects related to the peculiar environment characteristics have been taken into account during all stages of system design and evaluation: depth of operation and light conditions, together with water turbidity and external weather, heavily impact on perception capabilities. The vision platform proposed in this work is a modular system comprising off-the-shelf components for both the imaging sensors and the computational unit, linked by a high performance ethernet network bus. The adopted design philosophy aims at achieving high flexibility in terms of feasible perception applications, that should not be as limited as in case of a special-purpose and dedicated hardware. Flexibility is required by the variability of underwater environments, with water conditions ranging from clear to turbid, light backscattering varying with daylight and depth, strong color distortion, and other environmental factors. Furthermore, the proposed modular design ensures an easier maintenance and update of the system over time. Performance of the proposed system, in terms of perception capabilities, has been evaluated in several underwater contexts taking advantage of the opportunity offered by the MARIS national project. Design issues like energy power consumption, heat dissipation and network capabilities have been evaluated in different scenarios. Finally, real-world experiments, conducted in multiple and variable underwater contexts, including open sea waters, have led to the collection of several datasets that have been publicly released to the scientific community. The vision system has been integrated in a state of the art AUV equipped with a robotic arm and gripper, and has been exploited in the robot control loop to successfully perform underwater grasping operations.

Measuring the Big Five with single items using a bipolar response scale

The convergence on the Big Five in personality theory has produced a demand for efficient yet psychometrically sound measures. Therefore, five single-item measures, using bipolar response scales, were constructed to measure the Big Five and evaluated in terms of their convergent and off-diagonal divergent properties, their pattern of criterion correlations and their reliability when compared with four longer Big Five measures. In a combined sample (N?=?791) the Single-Item Measures of Personality (SIMP) demonstrated a mean convergence of r?=?0.61 with the longer scales. The SIMP also demonstrated acceptable reliability, self–other accuracy, and divergent correlations, and a closely similar pattern of criterion correlations when compared with the longer scales. It is concluded that the SIMP offer a reasonable alternative to longer scales, balancing the demands of brevity versus reliability and validity.

Phakometric measurement of ocular surface radius of curvature and alignment: evaluation of method with physical model eyes

Ophthalmophakometric measurements of ocular surface radius of curvature and alignment were evaluated on physical model eyes encompassing a wide range of human ocular dimensions. The results indicated that defocus errors arising from imperfections in the ophthalmophakometer camera telecentricity and light source collimation were smaller than experimental errors. Reasonable estimates emerged for anterior lens surface radius of curvature (accuracy: 0.02–0.10 mm; precision 0.05–0.09 mm), posterior lens surface radius of curvature (accuracy: 0.10–0.55 mm; precision 0.06–0.20 mm), eye rotation (accuracy: 0.00–0.32°; precision 0.06–0.25°), lens tilt (accuracy: 0.00–0.33°; precision 0.05–0.98°) and lens decentration (accuracy: 0.00–0.07 mm; precision 0.00–0.07 mm).

Effects of syllabic complexity in predicting accuracy of repetition and direction of errors in patients with articulatory and phonological difficulties

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the existence of a strong and significant effect of complexity in aphasia independent from other variables including length. Complexity was found to be a strong and significant predictor of accurate repetition in a group of 13 Italian aphasic patients when it was entered in a regression equation either simultaneously or after a large number of other variables. Significant effects were found both when complexity was measured in terms of number of complex onsets (as in a recent paper by Nickels & Howard, 2004) and when it was measured in a more comprehensive way. Significant complexity effects were also found with matched lists contrasting simple and complex words and in analyses of errors. Effects of complexity, however, were restricted to patients with articulatory difficulties. Reasons for this association and for the lack of significant results in Nickels and Howard (2004) are discussed. © 2005 Psychology Press Ltd.

Accuracy and applications of group MEG studies using cortical source locations estimated from participants' scalp surfaces

We contend that powerful group studies can be conducted using magnetoencephalography (MEG), which can provide useful insights into the approximate distribution of the neural activity detected with MEG without requiring magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for each participant. Instead, a participant's MRI is approximated with one chosen as a best match on the basis of the scalp surface from a database of available MRIs. Because large inter-individual variability in sulcal and gyral patterns is an inherent source of blurring in studies using grouped functional activity, the additional error introduced by this approximation procedure has little effect on the group results, and offers a sufficiently close approximation to that of the participants to yield a good indication of the true distribution of the grouped neural activity. T1-weighted MRIs of 28 adults were acquired in a variety of MR systems. An artificial functional image was prepared for each person in which eight 5 × 5 × 5 mm regions of brain activation were simulated. Spatial normalisation was applied to each image using transformations calculated using SPM99 with (1) the participant's actual MRI, and (2) the best matched MRI substituted from those of the other 27 participants. The distribution of distances between the locations of points using real and substituted MRIs had a modal value of 6 mm with 90% of cases falling below 12.5 mm. The effects of this -approach on real grouped SAM source imaging of MEG data in a verbal fluency task are also shown. The distribution of MEG activity in the estimated average response is very similar to that produced when using the real MRIs. © 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Accuracy of cornea and lens biometry using anterior segment optical coherence tomography

We assess the accuracy of the Visante anterior segment optical coherence tomographer (AS-OCT) and present improved formulas for measurement of surface curvature and axial separation. Measurements are made in physical model eyes. Accuracy is compared for measurements of corneal thickness (d1) and anterior chamber depth (d2) using-built-in AS-OCT software versus the improved scheme. The improved scheme enables measurements of lens thickness (d 3) and surface curvature, in the form of conic sections specified by vertex radii and conic constants. These parameters are converted to surface coordinates for error analysis. The built-in AS-OCT software typically overestimates (mean±standard deviation(SD)]d1 by +62±4 μm and d2 by +4±88μm. The improved scheme reduces d1 (-0.4±4 μm) and d2 (0±49 μm) errors while also reducing d3 errors from +218±90 (uncorrected) to +14±123 μm (corrected). Surface x coordinate errors gradually increase toward the periphery. Considering the central 6-mm zone of each surface, the x coordinate errors for anterior and posterior corneal surfaces reached +3±10 and 0±23 μm, respectively, with the improved scheme. Those of the anterior and posterior lens surfaces reached +2±22 and +11±71 μm, respectively. Our improved scheme reduced AS-OCT errors and could, therefore, enhance pre- and postoperative assessments of keratorefractive or cataract surgery, including measurement of accommodating intraocular lenses. © 2007 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers.

Models of gas-liquid solubilities

A recent method for phase equilibria, the AGAPE method, has been used to predict activity coefficients and excess Gibbs energy for binary mixtures with good accuracy. The theory, based on a generalised London potential (GLP), accounts for intermolecular attractive forces. Unlike existing prediction methods, for example UNIFAC, the AGAPE method uses only information derived from accessible experimental data and molecular information for pure components. Presently, the AGAPE method has some limitations, namely that the mixtures must consist of small, non-polar compounds with no hydrogen bonding, at low moderate pressures and at conditions below the critical conditions of the components. Distinction between vapour-liquid equilibria and gas-liquid solubility is rather arbitrary and it seems reasonable to extend these ideas to solubility. The AGAPE model uses a molecular lattice-based mixing rule. By judicious use of computer programs a methodology was created to examine a body of experimental gas-liquid solubility data for gases such as carbon dioxide, propane, n-butane or sulphur hexafluoride which all have critical temperatures a little above 298 K dissolved in benzene, cyclo-hexane and methanol. Within this methodology the value of the GLP as an ab initio combining rule for such solutes in very dilute solutions in a variety of liquids has been tested. Using the GLP as a mixing rule involves the computation of rotationally averaged interactions between the constituent atoms, and new calculations have had to be made to discover the magnitude of the unlike pair interactions. These numbers have been seen as significant in their own right in the context of the behaviour of infinitely-dilute solutions. A method for extending this treatment to "permanent" gases has also been developed. The findings from the GLP method and from the more general AGAPE approach have been examined in the context of other models for gas-liquid solubility, both "classical" and contemporary, in particular those derived from equations-of-state methods and from reference solvent methods.

The accuracy of parameter estimation from noisy data, with application to resonance peak estimation in distributed Brillouin sensing

Distributed Brillouin sensing of strain and temperature works by making spatially resolved measurements of the position of the measurand-dependent extremum of the resonance curve associated with the scattering process in the weakly nonlinear regime. Typically, measurements of backscattered Stokes intensity (the dependent variable) are made at a number of predetermined fixed frequencies covering the design measurand range of the apparatus and combined to yield an estimate of the position of the extremum. The measurand can then be found because its relationship to the position of the extremum is assumed known. We present analytical expressions relating the relative error in the extremum position to experimental errors in the dependent variable. This is done for two cases: (i) a simple non-parametric estimate of the mean based on moments and (ii) the case in which a least squares technique is used to fit a Lorentzian to the data. The question of statistical bias in the estimates is discussed and in the second case we go further and present for the first time a general method by which the probability density function (PDF) of errors in the fitted parameters can be obtained in closed form in terms of the PDFs of the errors in the noisy data.